Gary Quill's Blog

Horse Racing Lesson #1: There are no sure things!

Sun, 08 Jun 2008 18:49:18 GMT

I apologize for the length of this blog, but it will be my last one until live racing returns to Maryland in August. Have an enjoyable Summer!

Something happened on the way to the coronation of Big Brown as the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years. It’s called history. It seems as if from the time Big Brown crossed the finish line on May 3^rd at Churchill Downs, we all put on the rose colored glasses and never took them off until after witnessing Big Brown finish last in the 140^th running of the Belmont Stakes.

Let’s face it. Everyone, from the most notable horse racing expert to the novice, we all got caught up in the hype and hope that the Triple Crown drought would end this year. Well the horse racing gods were not ready to make that happen. We want one so bad that we ignored logic and blindly believe each year the Derby and Preakness winner might be the second coming of Secretariat.

Do I think the fact that Big Brown did not have his monthly dose of steroids in May is 100% to blame for his flop in the Belmont? No. In my humble opinion, there were many other factors…

# 1 – The hoof. Whether the quarter crack bothered him during the race or not, his training schedule was compromised due to it. Athletes know that if they don’t practice for a week before a big game, you’re not going to be on top of your game.

# 2 – The heat. Sure, all of the horses had to deal with it, but looking at Big Brown on the track prior to the race, it was obvious to me that he was not handling it well. No replay will show the Post Parade, but if you watch the replay as they enter the clubhouse (first) turn from the rear, he appeared to be the only one with excessive kidney sweat (the white lather between a horses ass, to put it bluntly). Without getting too graphic, imagine if you were a runner and had to run the longest race of your life and you had “stuff back there”. I doubt that you could run your best.

# 3 – Rank. Again, watching the replay for the first couple furlongs, he fought jockey Kent Desormeaux, throwing his head, using unnecessary energy very early in the race.

# 4 – Pace. In my pre-race analysis blog, I stated that there was only one horse (Da’ Tara) except Big Brown who would want to be on the lead. When Big Brown did not challenge for that lead, Da’ Tara’s jockey Alan Garcia was able to slow the pace down to the point that the eventual winner had plenty left in the tank to hold off the rest of the field in the stretch. “Pace makes the race” is one of the oldest rules of horse racing.

# 5 – Eibar Coa. The jockey on Tale Of Ekati (#7). Again, watch the replay. Going into the first turn, Desormeaux attempted to come off the rail and stalk Da’ Tara. Coa was not going to let that happen. He rushed Tale Of Ekati up to cutoff Big Brown, forcing him to check and then swing to the outside of Tale Of Ekati. Coa continued to sacrifice his mounts chances by keeping him 6 wide throughout the backstretch, with Big Brown to his right, 7 wide.

# 6 – Money. Odds of 1-4 are short enough, but I thought they would have been 1-9. After all, he convincingly won the Preakness at 1-5. There must have been tens of thousands of $2 bettors purchasing their souvenir $2 WIN ticket on Big Brown. That alone would have made him 1-4. So the big money (insiders) may have sensed on Saturday morning that he was not on top of his game?!

… and this is why they put the horses in the gate and make them run 1½ miles around the track before they award the Triple Crown to the winner of the Derby and Preakness.

Recapping Day 30 (June 7^th) of the Pimlico Spring Meet …

Best Bet, Kaufy Big Shot (# 3; 2^nd race; 8-5) helped me go out on a winning note, even though the return was pretty poultry, paying $4.40 WIN and $2.60 PLACE. There was no SHOW wagering due to the small field of four horses.

Longshot, Queen Rio (# 8; 9^th race on the turf; 8-1) was running in her first lifetime race and appeared that she just needed the opportunity to get out and run, as she finished ahead of only 2 horses after trailing the field for most of the race at 10-1.

The 2008 Pimlico Spring Meet is now history. From my point of view it was a success. The majority of races had an adequate number of starters to draw betting interest. Many prohibitive favorites failed, which believe it or not is good thing. When favorites seem to always win, it tends to deflate handicappers ability in trying to find price horses.

I’ve enjoyed posting blogs for each live racing day at Pimlico. In reviewing my Best Bet and Longshot selections, The Daily Racing Form comment line on my performance would probably be “Early speed; faded”. Early in the meet I picked five (5) consecutive Best Bet winners. Throughout the meet my Longshot picks were often duds, but did manage to get a couple winners and quite a few in the money. My best pick turned out to be Student Council in the Pimlico Special, who paid $16.80.

Over the next eight weeks, there will be no live horse racing in the state of Maryland as Magna Entertainment tracks give way to Colonial Downs in Virginia. I will also take a hiatus from this blog to enjoy plenty of outdoor activities with my family.

Special thanks to Nestor who believed that my passion for horse racing would be beneficial to blog readers of the WNST website. Thank you Marc and Andrew Unger. You were the first WNST on-air radio personalities to give my blog exposure and introduce the WNST listening audience to me. I’m thankful for the new friendships I have gained with fellow WNST bloggers and associates… specifically Chris Voxakis, Ed Frankovic and Jason Jubb. And last but certainly not least, you, who read my blogs. I write the blog because I love to share my thoughts on horse racing with whoever is willing to read it. Your comments have inspired me to continue my quest to expand the horse racing audience both locally and nationally.

Enjoy your Summer. Look for my blog when live racing returns to Maryland in August.

Belmont Prediction & Pimlico Closing Day Selections for Saturday

Fri, 06 Jun 2008 20:38:57 GMT

I am jealous of those on the WNST bus to Belmont! I’d be with them if it weren’t for another commitment. If I were able to be at Belmont, I’d definitely want Big Brown win, but right now I'm on the fence. It seems that whether he wins or loses, this will be the last time we get to see him on the track. And that in itself will cheat horse racing fans from seeing a true champion… if he wins!

Think back over the past not 30, but just 10 years at how many times the Derby and Preakness winner was thought to be a "shoe in" to win the Belmont. There’s Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and War Emblem just to name a few. And those horses didn't have run down and/or hoof problems!

I probably want him to win, but the reality is there hasn't been a Triple Crown winner for 30 years because it's NOT an easy feat! It's hard to imagine that he cannot win based on how easily he has won ALL of his races. He’s never been challenged in deep stretch. How will he react if he is on Saturday?

It's weird... I was 15 years old in 1973 when Secretariat won the Triple Crown. The first to win it since Citation in 1948! At that time it seemed like an eternity. That gap was ONLY 25 years. Today it just doesn't seem has if it's been 30 years since Affirmed won it in 1978... has it to you?! Maybe I’m just getting old?

Here’s how I see the 140^th running of the Belmont Stakes, listed in my predicted order of finish…

1^st - # 1 Big Brown (2-5): There is no denying it. He is special. He is a freak. But he also has run down and hoof issues. These are nothing new and Dutrow hasn’t tempered his enthusiasm about this colt either. So why be foolish and bet against him? History is not on his side. So like a fool I’ll back him. Based on my recent success (i.e. lack of) in picking winners at Pimlico, this should provide everyone else an opportunity to bet against him! Go for it or to make some money, play a couple straight trifectas with him on top.

2^nd - # 10 Icabad Crane (20-1): After seeing his Preakness run… I’m now a believer. He was stopped and/or redirected at least twice in the final 4 furlongs, yet still prevailed to be third. There is no question that he can get the distance (A.P Indy bloodlines). He’s never been off the board in 5 lifetime efforts and the worst of those came on a synthetic surface. He continues to move forward with every race and I’m a big fan of jockey Jeremy Rose ever since his Afleet Alex ride in the 2005 Preakness.

3^rd - # 5 Casino Drive(7-2): The “wise-guy” horse. All the experts are claiming if Big Brown gets beat, this is the one who will do it. Even though he’s only got two career races under his belt, his bloodlines are proven at this grueling distance (1½ miles). His half-brother (Jazil) won this race in 2006 and last year his three-quarter sister (Rags To Riches) beat eventual Horse of the Year Curlin in dramatic fashion. The latter is quite an impressive feat. Add to the equation “Triple Crown Killer” jockey Edgar Prado. He rode Belmont winners Sarava (2002) and Birdstone (2004) who both spoiled Triple Crowns for War Emblem and Smarty Jones, respectively. For these reasons I’ll use him in my exotics, but he’s carrying 10 more lbs. than he did in his North American debut. note: 1913 was the last time a horse with only two previous starts captured the Belmont.

4^th - # 7 Tale Of Ekati (20-1): He stepped up big time in the Kentucky Derby with a fourth place finish. Now he gets to run on a track he seems to love, winning twice in as many starts as a 2 year old. If, and that’s a big “if” he returns to that form, he could be the price horse that finds his way into the money.

5^th - # 4 Denis Of Cork (12-1): I liked him in the Derby at a price and he delivered with a valiant 3^rd place effort. Trainer David Carroll is following the same workout tab as he did leading up to the Derby. A solid contender here, but the distance may be his undoing. I envision him making a strong move entering the final turn but flattening out in the stretch,

6^th - # 8 Anak Nakal (30-1): Earlier this week a friend of mine said he had a non-sexual dream about Anna Nicole Smith and asked if I thought it was an omen? I simply replied, “How could anyone have a dream involving Anna Nicole and it be non-sexual?!” Well, I’ve lost enough money on the equine Anak Nakal during his 2008 races not to act upon my friend’s possible omen.

His sire (Victory Gallop) did spoil Real Quiet’s Triple Crown in this race. Hmmm.

7^th - # 3 Macho Again (20-1): He continues to get better with every race, but I think he’ll “bounce” big time here. Also, his bloodlines aren’t the best for getting this distance. I’m not convinced that the switch from Leparoux to Gomez is an upgrade. Who knows, Leparoux may have bailed to ride Anak Nakal? Afterall, can you name a major 3 year old race where Gomez was the winning jock? I cannot!

8^th - # 9 Ready’s Echo (30-1): Trainer Todd Pletcher must like being in the limelight. He always seems to be able to come up with a horse that isn’t quite the Triple Crown caliper, but might be worth a second look for your exotics. He’s carrying 10 more lbs. than he did in his third place finish behind Casino Drive. That’s a ton when you’re asking a colt to run a marathon! I’ll pass.

9^th - # 6 Da’ Tara (30-1): Maybe trainer Nick Zito saw the early list of contenders were all void of early speed, with the exception of Big Brown and figured maybe this horse could make some noise or even steal it?! I see him on the front end with Big Brown for about 6 furlongs then packing it in looking for oxygen to make it the rest of the way.

10^th - # 2 Guadalcanal (50-1): Owned and trained by Frederick J. Seitz. Who?! I’m a horse racing geek and I couldn’t tell you where he calls home! It might be Florida. Even though this maiden, that’s right, maiden is Triple Crown nominated, the earth will stand still if this one gets a call in the stretch!

Here’s how I’ll play the Belmont…

$5 TRIFECTA Part-Wheel #1 with #10 with #4, #5, #7, #8 cost: $20

Recapping Day 29 (June 6^th) of the Pimlico Spring Meet …

Best Bet, Braeside (# 4; 4^th race; 3-2) helped extend my Best Bet winless streak to about 6. Despite of her 1-2 odds, she managed to follow the winner all the way around the track, paying $2.20 PLACE and $2.10 SHOW. Whoop-dee-freakin-do!

Longshot, Theycallmeadreamer (# 6; 5^th race on the turf; 20-1) got next to no support at the windows, going off at 51-1. He broke well, was in contention in the early stages of the 5 furlong sprint, but gave way in the stretch to finish 5^th.

Here’s who I like today, June 7^th, Closing Day (30) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Kaufy Big Shot (# 3; 2^nd race; 8-5)

It’s a short field of 5 going long. The pace should be slow and this one should be the dictator of it. Trainer Gary Capuano doesn’t have too many under his care, so when he sends them out, they usually are ready to score.

Longshot: Queen Rio (# 8; 9^th race on the turf; 8-1)

In this Maiden Special Weight contest, this first-time starter should give a good account of herself on the grass. Her breeding on both sides (Kingmambo and Boundary) suggests ability to run on the turf. Jockey Jozbin Santana and trainer Rodney Jenkins have been known to get them to the Winners Circle at first asking.

I want to hear who you like today! Good Luck with your selections!

Pimlico: Selections for Friday (Day 30) & Belmont Conspiracy Theorists

Fri, 06 Jun 2008 02:19:34 GMT

Enough already with the Conspiracy Theory that Big Brown was handed Post Position # 1 on a silver platter to insure he wins the Belmont on Saturday. Pleeeeease! I really shouldn’t complain though. The fact that the sports community is actually talking about the possibility of a Triple Crown winner gives me hope that there still is interest in the sport I love.

Contrary to popular belief, trainer Rick Dutrow would rather not have the inside post. When you have a speed horse, or one like Big Brown who likes to be on or near the lead, you want him on the outside of a competitor. Why? Horses are trained to pass other horses on the outside or on the right. Also, being on the rail isn’t necessarily an advantage. Based on the condition of the track surface, being off the rail is often the more favorable place to be.

Please don’t confuse horse racing with NASCAR, where whoever gets the Pole Position has a decisive advantage. But by all means, on Saturday you can treat this race as if it were a NASCAR event. Find somebody in your office who can get a bet down for you, grab a six-pack of your favorite beverage, and park yourself in front of your TV around 5:30pm. Tune into ABC and enjoy an hour of pre-race coverage leading up to the running of the 140^th Belmont Stakes, better known as “The True Test of Champions”. Post Time is 6:25pm.

Recapping Day 29 (June 5^th) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

OK, I’m beginning to feel like the Angel of Death. Over the past few weeks my documented Best Bet has often been the bet down to very short odds, yet runs up the track?! Thursday was a classic example of that.

Best Bet, I’s The Boy (# 1; 4^th race; 3-2) was in my mind not only the better part of the Scott Lake entry, he was hands down, on paper the best horse in the race. And I was not alone in my analysis as the entry went off as the 1-2 favorite. Well he showed early speed but fell apart when challenged in the stretch, and folded like an accordion, finishing last (5^th).

Longshot, My Little Josie (# 4; 5^th race on the turf; 6-1) was looking strong, stalking the pace, but threw in the towel when the field headed for home. She finished 5^th in the field of 7 at 8-1.

Here’s who I (the Angel of Death to prohibitive favorites) like on Friday, June 6^th, Day 30 of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Braeside (# 4; 4^th race; 3-2)

This filly was going to be my Best Bet about 10 seconds before she finished 3^rd in her last race on May 22^nd. That day I was enjoying lunch with a few friends at Pimlico’s Clubhouse Turfside Terrace as I watched jockey Rosie Napravnik guide her helplessly behind a number of horses along the rail at the far turn, again as she entered the stretch and pretty much until they reached the eighth pole. She was full of run, but never was given a chance to run. I think her M/L odds are a bit too low, but maybe the track oddsmaker noticed the same thing I did that day?!

Longshot: Theycallmeadreamer (# 6; 5^th race on the turf; 20-1)

I must be (dreaming) for picking this one, but hear me out. He’s been running in $4k claimers on the dirt at Charleytown over his past 10 or more races in his 26 lifetime starts. Prior to those, he ran on the turf 10 times, winning once and placing twice earning $48k. That equates to competing at around the $48k allowance level on the turf. That’s a better average than any of his rivals today. At 20-1, he’s worth a shot (and a prayer) that he can run back to his old turf form.

I want to hear who you like today! Good Luck with your selections!

Pimlico: Selections for Thursday (Day 29) & Belmont Post Positions

Thu, 05 Jun 2008 00:50:04 GMT

The Belmont field is set. Post Positions were drawn this morning in New York. Dual Classic winner, Big Brown has the listed as the 2-5 Morning Line (M/L) favorite and will break from the #1 post. He will be challenged by 9 other colts in the quest to capture the Final Jewel of the Triple Crown, which covers the distance of 1 1/2 miles. Here’s how they’ll break from the gate at around 6:25pm on Saturday…

PP Horse Name Jockey (M/L)

1 Big Brown K.Desormeaux 2-5

2 Guadalcanal J. Castellano 50-1

3 Macho Again G. Gomez 20-1

4 Denis Of Cork R. Albarado 12-1

5 Casino Drive E. Prado 7-2

6 Da’ Tara A. Garcia 30-1

7 Tale Of Ekati E. Coa 20-1

8 Anak Nakal J. Leparoux 30-1

9 Ready’s Echo J. Velazquez 30-1

10 Icabad Crane J. Rose 20-1

Recapping Day 28 (June 1^st) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet, No Exposure (# 4; 6^th race; 3-1) was scratched.

Longshot, Midside Maggie (# 4; 2^nd race; 12-1) showed absolutely nothing on the main track while running dead last. Oh boy! It seems like she better stick to competing on the turf.

Here’s who I like on Thursday, June 5^th, Day 29 of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: I’s The Boy (# 1; 4^th race; 3-2)

This gray colt has racked up a ton of Frequent Flyer miles as Pimlico will be his 7^th track in just his 8^th lifetime start. Besides being half-brother to Preakness runner-up Macho Again, he has the potential to be pretty good in his own right. I see issues with each of his 6 rivals today, including his entry mate (# 1A) Baltimore Raven who runs best on an off track. Maybe trainer Scott Lake will scratch “Raven” in hopes of getting more than even money odds on I’s The Boy.

Longshot: My Little Josie (# 4; 5^th race on the turf; 6-1)

As long as this race stays on the turf, this 3 year old filly should be a force to be reckoned with. She’s competed in stakes races in 3 of her 5 turf efforts and was scratched on Preakness day from a $50k race when it was taken off the turf. Though she's sprinted in all of her turf tries, I think she'll do well going a miile. Getting odds of 6-1 or better would be a gift.

I want to hear who you like today! Good Luck with your selections!

Pimlico: Selections for Sunday (Day 28)

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 14:52:49 GMT

Only four more live racing days left in the Pimlico Spring Meet. By all accounts, it appears that it has been a success. Saturday (Belmont Day) will be closing day. Then for the next six weeks there will be no live racing in Maryland as the focus shifts to Colonial Downs.

Recapping a wet Day 27 (May 31^st)…

Best Bet, Classy Credentials (# 5; 6^th race; 3-1) ran on the sloppy going that I wanted her to avoid, but still finished a creditable 3^rdat 7-2, paying $4.00 for SHOW.

Longshot, Classical Master (# 4; 4^th race; 15-1) showed absolutely nothing as he ran dead last. I’ll chalk it up to the muddy track.

Readers Selection Documented Winner: Joe in Bel Air liked Populist (# 2; 6^th race) who won in gate-to-wire fashion paying $9.60 $5.20 and $4.00 across the board. The winner had beaten Derby runner-up Eight Belles last year at Delaware Park. Joe provided two other picks which didn’t pan out, but due to the track condition changes, I won’t hold it against him… because that’s the excuse I’m using for my failed picks!

Be a future “Readers Selection Documented Winner”. If you have an opinion on a horse (it doesn’t have to be at Pimlico), mention it when you comment on my blog. I’ll post it that day for ALL to see and give you all the credit when it wins!

Here’s who I like on Sunday, June 1^st, Day 28 of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: No Exposure (# 4; 6^th race; 3-1)

The conditions are for non-winners of two lifetime, but she has never competed in these conditions since breaking her maiden seven races ago. Trainer Gary Capuano is sacrificing $1k of the claiming price for a 2 lb. weight advantage which I typically shy away from, but she’s been facing better competition than these today. Therefore, she gets my nod.

Longshot: Midside Maggie (# 4; 2^nd race; 12-1)

Yeah, she is a turf runner… and a steeplechase one at that in her most recent two this year. But she has one win in two lifetime starts on the dirt. She’s in at the lowest class level in her career which doesn’t bother me because she’s 7 years old. Do you think someone will claim her for $10k?!

I want to hear who you like today! Good Luck with your selections!

Pimlico: Selections for Saturday (Day 27) & Write-In Kings

Sat, 31 May 2008 13:43:47 GMT

Even though the news about Big Brown’s various ailments has lessened over the past few days, the field for 140^th running of the Belmont Stakes grew by one. Trainer Nick Zito has decided to enter Da’ Tara, runner-up in the Barbaro Stakes here on Preakness day, bringing the field to an even dozen. Joining Big Brown and Da’ Tara for the 1½ mile journey towards history next Saturday will be Anak Nakal, Behindatthebar, Casino Drive, Denis Of Cork, Icabad Crane, Macho Again, Ready’s Echo, Spark Candle, Tale Of Ekati and Tomcito.

Onto the topic of the “King of Baltimore Sports Write-In” candidates, my four would be…

1. * Doug DeCinces (Father of Orioles Magic)

2. Bert Jones (helped resurrect the Baltimore Colt franchise)

3. Ken Singleton (his numbers speak for themselves)

4. Jim Gentile (deserving Old-timer)

* - I cannot understand his absence from the official “Write-In List”?! Has everyone forgotten that without Doug’s dramatic home run off Angels Don Aase in June ’79, the phrase “Orioles Magic” may have never been uttered by any baseball fan?!

But let’s not get too lathered up about what four (4) deserve to be in, because all four will be “Also Ran’s” when the contest gets going.

Back to horse racing! Recapping Day 26 (May 30^th)…

Best Bet, Blue Sailor (# 6; 8^th race on the turf; 2-1) appeared to be the Best Bet for many bettors, as he closed at 4-5, but could not get past the early pacesetter, Crimson Sun. Blue Sailor paid a poultry $2.80 PLACE and $2.40 SHOW.

Longshot, Maid Of Cotton (# 4; 6^th race; 8-1) stalked the winner for much of the race, but the added distance proved to be her undoing, as she faded in the lane to 5^th at 8-1.

Here’s who I like on Saturday, May 31^st, Day 27 of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Classy Credentials (# 5; 6^th race; 3-1)

As long as the heavens don’t open up this afternoon and make the track “off”, I feel this 3 year old has the potential here. A number of the better runners have early speed whereas she has demonstrated a nice closing kick.

Longshot: Classical Master (# 4; 4^th race; 15-1)

I love his last race. He was coming off of a 10 month vacation to run in a sprint where he typically runs distance. The way he ran the sprint, dropping back during the first 4 furlongs then gaining ground in the stretch. This is a pattern many distance runners use to prepare for their next race. Add the fact he worked a mile and a 5 furlong bullet in the A.M. since his return indicates he’s worth a look in your exotics or flat!

I want to hear who you like today! Good Luck with your selections!

Pimlico: Selections for Friday (Day 26) & Different "Kings"

Fri, 30 May 2008 04:58:56 GMT

It seems as though all this talk about the “King of Baltimore Sports” has inspired a number of horse racing fans to weigh in on who they thought were the best jockeys to have had their tack on the Maryland circuit. Well, turn about is fair play, so for those who want to debate this list. Here is my Top 10 of the “Kings of Maryland’s Sport of Kings”.

1. Kent Desormeaux (record 598 wins in ’89)

2. Chris McCarron

3. William J. Passmore

4. Mario Pino

5. Julie Krone

6. Edgar Prado

7. Chuck Baltazar

8. Donnie Miller, Jr.

9. Chris Antley

10. “Cowboy” Jack Kaenel

Who did I leave out that you’d put on the list?

Recapping Day 25 (May 29^th)…

Best Bet, Cedar Slew (# 6; 2^nd race; 2-1) was 5-2 with 3 minutes until Post. By the time the gates opened for the 2^nd race, he had been pounded down to the 6-5 favorite. The late money obviously came from the thousands who read my blog… yeah right! Cedar Slew seemed to be the best bet for a lot of people, but someone forgot to tell Cedar Slew. He did not break well; he never got close to the lead and ran a very disappointing 4^th.

Longshot, Appeal To The City (# 6; 7^th race on the turf; 6-1) was no match for the winner (3-5 favorite, Fanlight Franny) and could not collar the runner-up through the stretch, but finished willing for 3^rd place money at 8-1, paying $3.20 to SHOW.

Here’s who I like on Friday, May 30^th, Day 26 of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Blue Sailor (# 6; 8^th race on the turf; 2-1)

By far the best horse in the field. Odds of 2-1 would be a gift, so I’m thinking more like 4-5, but that’s not for me to decide. This 4 year old gelding has never been off the board in six starts at this distance on the grass and owns four wins in eleven lifetime turf tries, one at Pimlico in two starts.

Longshot: Maid Of Cotton (# 4; 6^th race; 8-1)

All six starters have two lifetime victories each. Maid Of Cotton has thirteen lifetime starts. Throw out four turf tries and two on an “off track” where she’s been off the board yet her fast track record is 2 wins and one 3^rd place finish in seven starts. Her recent PP’s appear as if she’s heading in the wrong direction, but the last time see ran on a fast track (4 starts ago), she won at this level.

I want to hear who you like today! Good Luck with your selections!

Pimlico: Selections for Thursday (Day 25) & "Sports King" Write-In

Thu, 29 May 2008 13:08:36 GMT

If the news out of Belmont were performed as part of a late 70’s Saturday Night Live Weekend Update segment, Emily Latella (the late Gilda Radner) would have said, “…Never mind!” All is well in the Big Brown camp as the Derby and Preakness champ galloped a 1 ½ miles, showing no ill effects from the quarter crack discovered on Saturday. Stay tuned. There’s 9 more days until the Belmont and I assume a lot more drama.

As far as the "King of all Baltimore Sports". My Write-In would have to be Jim Gentile. Of course, he'll never make the list because no one under the age of 55 has a clue who he is!

Recapping Day 24 (May 26^th)…

Best Bet, Hazaam’s Advantage (# 7; 3^rd race on the turf; 3-1) got a lukewarm reception at the betting windows, going off as the 7-2 3^rd choice. But when the gates opened, he ran better than the favorite and second choice, leading from gate to two jumps before the wire. He got beat by a head by Deadline (6-1) who snuck through along the rail. Hazaam’s Advantage returned $4.80 for the Place and $3.00 in the Show spot.

Longshot, Doolittle (# 8; 7^th race on the turf; 30-1) ran like a 30-1. Well, he actually went off at 25-1. The 5 furlongs was just too short for his liking. By the time he got going in the stretch, he was behind a wall of horses, finishing 7^th.

Here’s who I like today, May 29^th, Day 25 of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Cedar Slew (# 6; 2^nd race; 2-1)

This field of 7 going 6 furlongs lacks early speed. I see only two who want any part of the pace… # 4 Closed Court and my pick. Closed Court will only be good for about 4 furlongs as long as Cedar Slew presses him, which he should. Rider Craig Gibbs is becoming one of the better jocks on the Maryland circuit.

Longshot: Appeal To The City (# 6; 7^th race on the turf; 6-1)

On Black-Eyed Susan Day, she was scratched from a $50k stakes race because it was taken off the turf. Three days later she ran at this level at Delaware Park even though that race was also taken off the turf, finishing 4^th out of 7. There is no doubt she’ll get to run on the grass today where she has won twice and placed 3 times in 7 lifetime turf starts.

I want to hear who you like today! Good Luck with your selections!

Pimlico: Selections for Memorial Day (Day 24) & BIG Big Brown News

Mon, 26 May 2008 13:08:56 GMT

The heck with the “run down” the Derby and Preakness champ was dealing with last week. Now he’s got a more serious issue… a slightly cracked left front hoof. He’ll miss a few days of training, but trainer Rick Dutrow says he’s 100% confident Big Brown will be in top form for the 140^th running of the Belmont Stakes on June 7th. Wow, there seems to be more drama leading up to this years Belmont than can be found on an episode of The Day of Our Lives!

Recapping Day 23 (May 24^th)…

Best Bet, Nancy’s Grace (# 6; 2^nd race; 2-1) was scratched.

Longshot, Cat On The Moon (# 6; 1^st race on the turf; 10-1) ran evenly at 11-1. But as every handicapper knows, “evenly” never amounts to the horse being on the board. He broke nicely, stalked the pace sitting in 4^th from gate to the stretch, but flattened out to finish in 5^th.

Readers Selection Documented Winner: Joe in Bel Air liked Poppy’s Punkin (# 7; 8^th race) who won in gate-to-wire fashion paying $7.20 $3.40 and $3.20 across the board. The winner was able to set slow early fractions (23.72 & 46.85) due to the lack of speed in the race when Copelan’s Ridge was scratched. Way to go Joe!

Be a future “Readers Selection Documented Winner”. If you have an opinion on a horse (it doesn’t have to be at Pimlico), mention it when you comment on my blog. I’ll post it that day for ALL to see and give you all the credit when it wins!

Memorial Day (May 26^th) is Day 24 of the Pimlico Spring Meet and is Fan Appreciation Day… FREE Admission, FREE Live (Pimlico card) Program as well as Food & Drink Specials. Save the backyard BBQ for another day… take the family to Old Hilltop to enjoy 9 exciting chase scenes! Here’s who I like…

Best Bet: Hazaam’s Advantage (# 7; 3^rd race on the turf; 3-1)

Philly shipper has faced much better when competing on the grass. This field is short on early speed, which the 5 year old gelding has in his arsenal. If jock (Nick Santagata) breaks him alertly, he could be hard to beat.

Longshot: Doolittle (# 8; 7^th race on the turf; 30-1)

There’s plenty of speed to help this deep closer, but he will be hard pressed to be first home at such a short distance (5 furlongs); had no business being in the $50k Dahlia in 2008 debut. Maybe that experience will help today? The jock (Malcolm Franklin) is underrated as a turf rider. Worth a shot!

I want to hear who you like today! Good Luck with your selections!

Be sure to take a moment to remember those brave men and women who gave their lives for our great country. God bless America!

Pimlico: Selections for Sunday (Day 23) & Big Brown News

Sun, 25 May 2008 12:24:38 GMT

Some eye-brow raising news came out of New York last week concerning Big Brown. The Blood-Horse* reported that Big Brown has a slight run down behind coming out of the Preakness. How did this happen? It could have been due to a change in shoeing. I looked at the replay of the Preakness. My guess is it happened when he checked slightly behind Gayego, entering the backstretch, as Riley Tucker denied him a pathway away from the rail. This type of stop-and-go movements often cause run down.

A “run down” occurs when the backside of horse’s ankles hit the racing surface while running in a race. Once a horse has had a “run down”, he can be prone to repeating it. To help the healing process, topical ointment and run-down-patches are applied when he works. I doubt if this development will be become an issue as did the Spectacular Bid safety pin incident in 1979, but we’ll see.

Recapping Day 22 (May 24^th)…

Best Bet, Cape Codder (# 7; 2^nd race; 9-2) hit the track without the front bandage wraps and I hit the betting windows for more action on him even though he was part of my live Daily Double ticket. He didn’t disappoint me or those who bet him down to 2-1 as he broke alertly and took charge in the stretch coasting to victory, paying $6.60 $4.20 and $3.00 across the board.

Longshot, Malibu Kate (# 3; 1^st race; 10-1) went up against a 1-5 favorite, but it was “Kate” who took command from gate into mid-stretch, but could only sustain his speed for 5 of the 6 furlong contest. At 9-1 he gave a good account of himself, holding onto the SHOW spot paying $3.80. BTW – The 1-5 chalk beat a 12-1 first-timer by a neck.

Here’s who I like for the Day 23 (May 25^th) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Nancy’s Grace (# 6; 2^nd race; 2-1)

Fresh off a claim, trainer Dove Houghton gets 27% of them to the Winner’s Circle, the same percentage as jock Jozbin Santana gets when riding for her.

Add to the equation the 9-5 M/L favorite (# 3 – Foxy Date) does her best running on an Off Track (track condition of her two recent wins). Lastly, this field is full of early speed whereas Nancy’s Grace has shown the ability to lay off the lead, leaving enough for a strong stretch run.

Longshot: Cat On The Moon (# 6; 1^st race on the turf; 10-1)

Even though this 5 year old mare has only 1 win in 6 starts at today’s distance (1 1/16 mile), she could be a player here. She took the winter off, as do many turf runners stabled in the Mid-Atlantic region, but might be ready at first asking in 2008. She was entered in an Alw7500 turf race at Pimlico on May 15^th, but was scratched when it was taken off the turf. Twice in her career when coming off a “vacation”, she has placed a fast closing 4^th going this distance versus better company.

I want to hear who you like today! Good Luck with your selections!

* - Kudos to Dave (from Hollandtown) for providing me the “heads-up” on the Big Brown story.

Pimlico: Selections for Saturday (Day 22) & Handicapping Challenge

Sat, 24 May 2008 06:54:04 GMT

The best things in life are FREE. So if you have some spare time early on Saturday, you may want to consider entering the brisnet.com Handicapping Challenge. You place a mythical $2 WIN and PLACE wager on a horse in each of the eight (8) pre-selected races. The top 50 players who accumulate the largest return could qualify for the NTRA National Handicapping Championship in 2009. For more information go to www.brisnet.com.

Recapping Day 21 (May 23^rd)…

Best Bet, Bond Fire (# 3; 8^th race; 9-5) turned out to be much the best versus his three rivals. He smartly stalked the pace under Mario Pino, just biding his time until it was time to run. Due to a couple scratches from this race, his odds (4-5) were shorter than anticipated, paying $3.80 for the WIN and $2.60 for PLACE (there was no SHOW betting).

Longshot, Peggys Run (# 7; 7^th race on the turf; 20-1) was easily at least the second best horse in the race, it’s ashamed that jockey Chris Van Hassel compromised her chances by steadying her at the far turn as she was full of run. Somehow, she still showed willingness to run on in the stretch getting up for 3^rd at 27-1, beaten only 3 ¼ lengths for the win. She returned $9.80 for the SHOW.

Here’s who I like for the Day 22 (May 24^th) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Cape Codder (# 7; 2^nd race; 9-2)

This gray filly seems to fall into a specific pattern… good race, bad race, good race, bad race. Guess what kind of race she should be sitting on today? She gets blinkers for the first time in her career, and has a win and a second in 2 starts at this (5 furlong) distance. If you’re at the track or can watch it via HRTV or online at Xpressbet or twinspires.com, if she is wearing front bandage wraps, all best are off! She has run her two worst races when running with “fronts” on.

Longshot: Malibu Kate (# 3; 1^st race; 10-1)

Strange name for a gelding… Kate?! Whatever, this maiden has a tall task in that a recent Scott Lake claim (#1 - Love Tour) for $25k is in here for $16k? Why would you risk losing $9k on a horse you just claimed last month? That is unless he doesn’t have the will to win? Too many questions surround the # 1 and the others in here are all 3 year olds whereas “Katie” is 4. Plus, I like the turn back to 6 furlongs after showing early speed going long, then weakening in the stretch. I doubt we’ll see 10-1, but it’s worth a shot trying to beat the even money M/L favorite.

Good Luck with your selections today!

Pimlico: Selections for Friday (Day 21)

Fri, 23 May 2008 13:25:45 GMT

An awesome Memorial Day weekend is being forecast weather-wise and there’s some nice racing on tab in the area for those not going “Downy Ocean”. On Saturday, Fair Hill holds their annual one-day meet featuring various steeplechase races. This event provides a great family atmosphere. It’s a wonderful way to introduce the entire family to the “Sport of Kings”. I highly recommend it. Gates open at 10am. First race Post is 1pm. For more information go to www.fairhillraces.com.

Recapping Day 20 (May 22nd)…

Best Bet, Dattts Awesome (# 3; 7^th race; 8-5 M/L) wasn’t!!! The fact he was only sent off as the 5-2 second choice would have tipped me off that he wasn’t ready today. He never broke and ran 5^th out of 7 runners the entire race, earning that dubious comment “No Factor”.

Longshot, Desperado Kid (# 7; 2^nd race on the turf; 8-1 M/L) was bet down to 4-1 and ran a nice stalking race. Unfortunately, he never found 3^rd gear and finishes evenly, getting nosed out for second, paying $4.80 to SHOW.

My office shuts down a few hours early every Friday leading into a 3-day holiday weekend, so I’m going to take a detour on the way home and catch the last couple at Old Hilltop. Here’s who I like for the Day 21 (May 23^rd) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Bond Fire (# 3; 8^th race; 9-5)

This field of seven going 1 1/16 miles on the main track is filled with early speed. This lightly raced 5 year old has shown the ability to come from off the pace without much effort. Even though he is making his first start in 370 days, the A.M. work tab indicates he’ll fire at first asking. Pino takes the mount… the only one of him on today’s card.

Longshot: Peggys Run (# 7; 7^th race on the turf; 20-1)

Picking her is a real stretch, but I think she has a shot at completing your exacta or triple. Seven of the twelve starters here have only beaten maidens whereas Peggys Run has 2 wins in 21 lifetime starts. She’s been on the board in 3 of 4 efforts on the Pimlico grass. Today is her second start of 2008 after displaying a nice closing kick in her debut. I’d like her even more if the race was 1/16^th longer, but we’ll take what we can get… and we’ll get double-digit odds on her.

Good Luck with your selections today!

Pimlico: Selections for Thursday (Day 20) & Belmont News

Thu, 22 May 2008 02:30:26 GMT

It appears that Big Brown’s dominant performances in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes has not scared off many of his peers. In two races, he’s beaten 29 different foes but according to the NYRA, there may be as many as ten willing to take him on in the 140^th Belmont Stakes on June 7^th. The list includes Anak Nakal, Behindatthebar, Casino Drive, Denis Of Cork, Icabad Crane, Macho Again, Ready’s Echo, Spark Candle, Tale Of Ekati and Tomcito. Maybe their connections feel as if they are running for 2nd money?! If so, it's not everyday you can get $200k for not winning!

Here’s who I like for the Day 20 (May 22^nd) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Dattts Awesome (# 3; 7^th race on the turf; 8-5)

This Maryland bred filly found a home on the turf in 2007 progressing from her maiden win in July at Monmouth to a stakes victory at Laurel in November. NY based trainer, Mark Hennig ships her in for her initial race of 2008.

Longshot: Desperado Kid (# 7; 2^nd race on turf; 8-1)

Makes his 2008 debut on familiar footing; Appears to do his best work on the sod at this distance (5 furlongs) and while scoring a victory and one second in two at Pimlico. Jeremy Rose picking up the mount adds to his chances.

Good Luck with your selections today!

Post-Preakness Thoughts

Sun, 18 May 2008 14:31:03 GMT

“Here I come to save the day!” No, it wasn’t Mighty Mouse, it was a mighty horse named Big Brown. Thanks to his jaw-dropping performance in capturing the 133rd Preakness Stakes, the industry has a new superstar… for at least the next three weeks. Big Brown toyed with his 11 competitors for the 1 3/16 miles around the Pimlico dirt oval to win by 5 1⁄4 lengths over 40-1 Macho Again who finished three-quarters of a length in front of the local favorite, 22-1 Icabad Crane.

It’s been 30 years (Affirmed in 1978) since horse racing celebrated the greatest feat in its sport… a Triple Crown winner. And boy, this sport sure could use the shot-in-the-arm. It’s about time the racing gods look down kindly on thoroughbred horse racing. Pimlico and the city of Baltimore was the beneficiary of another successful Preakness. Over 112,000 (fifth largest crowd) descended upon Old Hilltop to enjoy a great day of racing.

I was fortunate enough to have access (via Press Pass) to every square inch of the facility, from Press Box to smack-dab in the center of the infield. Many were partying, but it appeared only a few were betting?! There were no lines of people standing 20 deep waiting to make a bet. Even in the Grandstand area there were no lines at the betting windows. How could this be? For 18 consecutive years, I had stood behind a Teller Window punching tickets non-stop from 9:30am until the last horse loaded for the Preakness race at 6:09pm!

Considering the on-track handle (aka amount of money wagered) was well off the record (only the fifth largest), I have a couple reasons for this unlikely phenomenon…

#1 – The economy. People who religiously make the annual pilgrimage to Pimlico on the third Saturday in May were not going to break tradition, but made less trips to the betting windows.

#2 – Online betting accounts. There are plenty of websites available (e.g. Xpressbet; twinspires, TVG) for horse players to make wagers via their computer or telephone. Years ago the use of track public telephones to communicate wagers were strictly prohibited. This pre-dated the cell phone. Even though this rule may still be in place, I doubt that track security is looking to enforce it on Preakness Day. They have their hands full with bigger issues.

# 3 – Lax and Whiffle Ball. These are just two other sporting events that took place yesterday. I’ll be the first to admit, horse racing is sports red-headed stepchild. It doesn’t get the respect it deserves. Maybe because it requires more work than opening a can of beer and sitting on your duff watching a couple dozen cars turn left for 3 hours? NCAA Lacrosse is big in these parts. Add the fact that two local favorites (Maryland and Hopkins) played in separate games contributed to the reduction in attendance and handle. Add the “Wiffle Ball Tournament” into the mix (stop laughing) and there’s more cash staying in the wallets of competitive guys who like placing a wager on anything!

Despite these factors, those who did attend were treated to great weather and a great day of racing. I had the time of my life, seeing potentially the next Triple Crown winner cross under the wire to a thunderous ovation.

Recapping my special selections on Preakness Day (May 17th)…

Preakness, my pick of Big Brown is nothing to hang ones hat on. Unfortunately, I discounted both Macho Again and Icabad Crane as serious contenders. Needless to say, I did not cash.
Best Bet, Brush On By (# 7; 1st race; 9-2) was scratched.

Longshot, Media Play (# 2; 2nd race on the turf; 6-1) attracted a lot of attention at the betting windows after this race was taken off the turf and the field was whittled down to 9 runners. He broke sharply under jockey John Velazquez who guided Media Play to an exciting half length victory, paying $6.80 to WIN. Not exactly the longshot price we may have gotten with a bigger field on the grass, but we’ll take it.

On Sunday, typically a Live Racing day, Pimlico takes the day to recover (i.e. clean up, provide employees who worked extended hours a well-deserved day off, etc.) from Preakness Day.

If you were at Preakness yesterday, what did you observe (that I could approve for posting)?

Thanks again Big Brown. See ya at Belmont on June 6th.

Preakness Selections & Analysis at Pimlico for Saturday

Fri, 16 May 2008 23:32:45 GMT

Mother Nature threw a wrench into my Black Eyed-Susan Day at Pimlico. At 11am on Friday as the rain pounded down on my deck like the rush of humanity onto the Pimlico Infield, I began to have second thoughts. The rain forced a couple dozen scratches, races were taken off the turf and the thought of the trip from Bel Air to northwest Baltimore and back clinched it for me. Stay at home; watch the races on ESPN2 while betting them via twinspires.com.

Here’s how I see the 133^rd running of the Preakness Stakes playing out, listed in my predicted order of finish…

1^st - # 7 Big Brown (1-2): Shocker! Let’s face it, even if this colt runs to 85% of his ability he should win going away against the group of challengers assembled here. At least “on paper” that’s how it looks. But as my high school JV basketball coach once told our team, “On paper you should be this team… but the game isn’t played on paper”. The same holds true here. The Derby winner could go off at 1-9 odds. For you $2 bettors, you’ll get 10 cents or a 5% profit on your investment. My tip would be to buy $2 WIN tickets, cross your fingers that he wins and can go on to win the Triple Crown. Then you can sell those uncashed $2 WIN ticket on eBay for a slightly higher profit.

2^nd - # 8 Kentucky Bear (15-1): He’s been the only starter who has spent significant time on the Pimlico grounds. I stood right next to him outside of the Stakes Barn as he grazed. Physically he looks great and his trainer has not been shy in trumpeting his praises. His bloodlines and jockey might be his Achilles Heel. Not that either is a negative. It’s just that the distance might be his absolute upper limits and this might be Jamie Theriot’s first ride around the Pimlico oval?!

3^rd - # 6 Racecar Rhapsody (30-1): Might be sitting on the race of his life, but he’ll also be carrying 9 lbs. more than he did in his last effort. A friend of mine once told me, “Adding 5 lbs. can stop a train”. His speed figures continue to climb and if the track continues to favor “stretch runners” as it did on Friday afternoon, he’ll have a good chance to get a piece of the purse.

4^th - # 4 Yankee Bravo (15-1): He caught my eye two months ago when he started his career on the turf then onto the synthetic tracks. His only dirt race was an impressive one (3^rd behind Pyro in the LA Derby). My only knock on him is that a 1 1/16 mile might be his best distance. He had every opportunity to win the Santa Anita Derby in his last race, but flattened out in the stretch. Hopefully I’m wrong and he’ll move forward off of that effort.

5^th - # 11 Giant Moon (30-1): The speed of the race, who if given the lead could carry it deep into the stretch. I think Gayego and Big Brown may play it safe and want to settle in behind the leader(s). If that scenario plays out, only one other colt (Tres Borrachos) would possibly be up there challenging for the early lead. Yeah, and if “ifs and butts were candies and nuts…”. Where there’s a will, Dominguez will find a way.

6^th - # 12 Gayego (8-1): Everybody who jumped on his bandwagon for the Derby (I wasn’t one of them) seem to think he’s still the second best colt in this field. Not sure what tipped off trainer Paulo Lobo to decide so late on entering him, but I’m still not a believer. He’ll be the best of the rest not getting a paycheck.

7^th - # 13 Hey Byrn (20-1): He’s a nice colt who will blossom into a Graded Stakes winner one day, but it won’t be on Preakness Day. No #13 has ever won the Preakness. His owner (Beatrice Oxenberg) turned 87 this week and this colt is named after her late husband. It makes for a great story, but he’s running for a minor share here.

8^th - # 9 Stevil (30-1): Seeing Nick Zito hanging out around the Stakes Barn brought back memories of Louis Quatorze surprising Preakness victory. But usually when Nick has a “hot horse”, he brings them in early. He didn’t roll into town with this one until Wednesday evening. Not early enough for me.

9^th - # 2 Tres Borrachos (30-1): His only shot is to be there early and hope for a slow pace. Odds of that happening are about as slim as the Orioles chances of getting to the World Series this year.

10^th - # 10 Riley Tucker (30-1): His final workout for this race was 1:06 going 5 furlongs… the slowest of 14 that morning. Arabians workout faster than that!

11^th - # 1 Macho Again (20-1): The Derby Trial winner will find the competition a bit more stiff. About half way through the jock will just pack it in and save him for another day.

12^th - # 3 Icabad Crane (30-1): In way over his head.

13^th - # 5 Behindatthebar (10-1): Was scratched on Friday morning due to a bruised foot.

Based on my analysis of the Preakness, I’ll play…

$10 EXACTA #7 on top of #6 and #8

$2 TRIFECTA keying # 7 (Big Brown) with
# 4, # 6, # 8, # 11

Recapping Black Eyed-Susan Day (May 16^th) of the Pimlico Spring Meet …

Pimlico Special, Student Council (# 3; 9^th race; 10-1) ran exactly as I pictured he would. All of the moons and stars aligned. That is, there was enough speed up front early on to slow the final fractions down enough to make Student Council appear to be flying in the final furlong to score a one length victory at 7-1, paying $16.40 to WIN.

Black Eyed-Susan, Pious Ashley (# 1A; 11^th race; 8-1) ran a game race, was in perfect position challenging for the lead turning for home, but came up empty in the stretch when she needed more in the tank.

Here are my special selections for Preakness Day (May 17^th) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Brush On By (# 7; 1^st race; 9-2)

There is a ton of early speed in this contest whereas this guy has a nice closing kick. Even though 6 furlongs is a bit shorter than he typically likes, I think we’ll see a number of runners wilting in the final furlong and see #7 just getting up for the victory.

Longshot: Media Play (# 2; 2^nd race on the turf; 6-1)

This is an iffy pick because they might decide to take just this one (non-stakes event) off the turf to preserve it for the stakes races later in the day? If they don’t, then this Cozzene offspring should improve in his second lifetime turf start for today’s host (Stronach Stable).

Good Luck with your selections today!

Pimlico: Preakness Notes & Selections for Black-Eyed Susan Day (Day 18)

Thu, 15 May 2008 21:43:13 GMT

Bright and early (at 7am) on Thursday morning, with my Press Pass proudly hanging around my neck, I made my maiden voyage through the Press Gate at Old Hilltop. After nearly 45 years of following horse racing, I finally got to experience walking through the stable area, talking to trainers, grooms and exercise riders, and seeing these magnificent animals at arms length. I felt like a kid in a candy store. I walked along the Stakes Barn with my head held high like I owned the place.

Just a day earlier, the Stakes Barn only housed two of the Preakness starters… Hey Byrn and Kentucky Bear. But late yesterday the place was invaded by at least half dozen or more Preakness starters, including the star of the show, Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown. Hence, the media blitz was underway. While the majority of the media types swarmed around the Big Brown camp, I elected to engage in conversation with Kentucky Bear’s exercise rider, Cassie Garcia. The Canadian native has been in town with the Preakness hopeful since last week and shared with me how she just recently switched from show horse rider to thoroughbreds. She was even nice enough to let me pet her… horse.

Some other observations include seeing what I thought was an impressive looking filly, Pious Ashley. She’s entered in Black Eyed-Susan Stakes after just breaking her maiden on Derby Day in her second career start. I normally avoid fillies running back in two weeks time, but since she only ran 6 furlongs and she is bred to “go long” (out of Broad Brush), she might surprise a few folks.

Equipped with my digital camera, I got up close photos of more than half the Preakness field... Kentucky Bear (of course), Yankee Bravo, Hey Byrn, Stevil, Riley Tucker, Macho Again, Tres Borrachos and plenty of Big Brown before and after his gallop... he looked smooth during the gallop. I got trainers Nick Zito and Eddie Plesa. Personally, my most interesting photo was one with Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey, ESPN Racing Analyst Randy Moss and NBC Racing Analyst Bob Neumeier shooting the breeze.

Unfortunately, my fun had to end (aka leave for work) around 9am, just before Rick Dutrow's post Big Brown’s gallop news conference. I wanted to stay in order to ask him an intelligent question. It's pretty bad when Fox 45 Sports reporter, Amy Fadool, appears to be the most knowledgeable one about horse racing among the local media present.

I cannot believe I passed on going to the Alibi Breakfast (at 10am), but I only have so many vacation days with my “real job” which pays the bills and allows my daughter to dance six (6) days per week. Alas, on Friday I sacrificed one of those precious vacation days to enjoy Black-Eyed Susan's Day. Then on Saturday I’ll be back at Pimlico by 7am.

I lived the dream... for at least 2 hours this morning. Thanks Nestor!

Recapping Day 17 (May 15th)…

Unbelievable! Even though the actions taken by track management today (races taken off the turf) makes perfect sense to me, it left us with no action on today’s card. Both Best Bet and Longshot picks were in turf races and both were scratched. The reason why not running on the turf today makes sense, is that on both Friday and Saturday, there are a number of quality races scheduled on the turf. Considering the amount of rain this region has received recently, the turf course must be awfully soft.

In addition to the turf being soft, I noticed during the morning workout session that the main track looked very deep. So as long as we don’t get an inch or more of rain between now and Saturday at 6:09pm, the track shouldn’t favor early speed or those who come from off the pace.

Best Bet, Doots (# 7; 7th race OFF the turf; 3-1 M/L) as mentioned above was scratched.

Longshot, Speedy Freddie (# 6; 5th race OFF the turf; 8-1 M/L) was scratched.

For Friday, better known around Old Hilltop as Black-Eyed Susan’s Day, I wanted to provide my opinion on the two feature races versus the Best Bet and Longshot selections typically seen here. So without further adieu, here’s who I like on official Racing Day 18 (May 16th) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Pimlico Special (10th): Student Council (# 3; 10-1)

A. P. Arrow (# 4; 5-2)

Grasshopper (# 7; 3-1)

On paper, Student Council shows that he’s not quite up to this level, but I’m looking beyond the PP’s with this selection. Jockey Shaun Bridgmohan is in town for this race only. After 3 turf and synthetic surface races, he’s back on the natural dirt where he’s won or been second in 8 of 17 starts. He fits the turf-to-dirt angle. He’s been working great at CD (dirt oval) and has already run beyond today’s distance (1 3/16 mile) at least 3 times in his career. A. P. Arrow will have a hot pace up front to assist his stretch running style. Grasshopper is a solid runner who has been no worse than second in his last 5 races… all Graded Stakes events.

Black Eyed-Susan (12th): Pious Ashley (# 9; 8-1)

Highest Class (# 4; 7-2)

Shes All Eltish (# 8; 5-2)

As mentioned earlier in this blog, I was visually impressed with Pious Ashley. Though she just ran two weeks ago, maybe the 6 furlongs didn’t take much out of her. She’s taking a huge step up in class, but will have no problem going the distance (1 1/8 mile). Highest Class got her act together last Fall, being a two time winner and three third place finishes as she entered Graded Stakes company. Her troubled trip in her last race resulted in coming up 7 lengths short of the winner, Shes All Eltish. But today Highest Class gets a 6 lb. swing in weight assignments versus Shes All Eltish. I’m throwing out Morning Line and local favorite, Bsharpsonata, because historically fillies that run in the Oaks rarely come back with a strong effort in the “Susan”.

Good Luck with your selections today!

Pimlico: Preakness Draw & Selections for Thursday (Day17)

Thu, 15 May 2008 01:41:24 GMT

The Preakness field is set. Post Positions were drawn earlier this evening at the ESPN Zone. Kentucky Derby winner, Big Brown has been listed as the 1-2 Morning Line (M/L) favorite and will break from the #7 post. He will be challenged by 12 other colts in the quest to capture the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown, which covers the distance of 1 3/16 mile; 1/16^th of a mile shorter than the Derby. Here’s how they’ll break from the gate…

PP Horse Name Jockey (M/L)

1 Macho Again J. Leparoux 30-1

2 Tres Borrachos T. Baze 30-1

3 Icabad Crane J. Rose 30-1

4 Yankee Bravo A. Solis 15-1

5 Behindatthebar D. Flores 10-1

6 Racecar Rhapsody R. Albarado 30-1

7 Big Brown K.Desormeaux 1-2

8 Kentucky Bear J. Theriot 15-1

9 Stevil J. Velazquez 30-1

10 Riley Tucker E. Prado 30-1

11 Giant Moon R. Dominguez 30-1

12 Gayego M. Smith 8-1

13 Hey Byrn C.C. Lopez 20-1

Recapping Day 15 (May 11^th)…

Due to circumstances beyond my control, I was unable to post a blog for the Sunday (Day 16) card. The public outcry was underwhelming. I’ll try not to let my damaged ego get in the way of doing a thorough job of handicapping this week, especially for Preakness Day. Belwo in the recap from Saturday’s picks.

Best Bet, Fareena (# 3; 8^th race; 8-5) was scratched.

Longshot, Plane Image (# 1; 9^th race; 6-1) did enter the Starting Gate for his first career race. Obviously, I was not the only one who liked his chances as he went off as the lukewarm 5-2 favorite. Unfortunately, someone forgot to tell Plane Image that he had a shot in this one. He was slow out of the gate, but made a nice move in the stretch, passing a number of horses, but could only manage a 5^th place finish.

Here’s who I like for the Day 17 (May 15^th) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Doots (# 7; 7^th race on the turf; 3-1)

At this (Alw 7500) level he has performed well with a win and second. Starting for the first time since November, Doots will be in the capable hands of jockey Malcolm Franklin, who handles himself quite well on the sod. Franklin has 3 wins in 8 mounts for trainer Hamilton Smith at the current Meet. So I expect this duo to visit it for the fourth time after this race.

Longshot: Speedy Freddie (# 6; 5^th race on turf; 8-1)

Philly Park Shipper gets services of regular rider (Harry Vega) who comes to Old Hilltop just to ride him. Add the fact “Freddie” has won, placed and showed in four (4) lifetime grass efforts, where the win and place came at today’s distance, he’s a Player here.

Good Luck with your selections today!

Going to the Preakness? CHECK YOUR TICKETS!

Tue, 13 May 2008 21:24:47 GMT

If you plan on being among the 125,000+ attending the Preakness at Pimlico this year, I have some valuable information to share with you here. It’s not my hot tips. Those will be posted in my blog on Friday evening. If you intend on placing a bet for yourself, your friends or co-workers who found out you are going, I encourage you to read the information below. It just might save you from some unnecessary heartache and stress on Saturday around 6:30pm.

First things first! If you are not familiar with how to make a bet, continue reading. If you are a grizzled horse racing vet, you can skip down to TIP OF THE DAY.

When you get to the betting window, there are 5 bits of information you need to communicate to the person (Pari-Mutuel Clerk) who will punch your ticket(s). If you say them in the following order, it will drastically reduce the chance of the clerk punching your bet incorrectly…

1. Track you want to bet (example: "At Pimlico...")

2. Race Number (example: "…12^th race or race 12...")

3. Amount (example: "...$2...")

4. Type of Bet (example: "...to Win...")

5. Horse Number (example: "...on # 7")

TIP OF THE DAY: Saying the Race Number is the most important bit of information communicated to the clerk. Why? On Preakness Day, the majority of people place wagers on the Preakness race hours before the race goes off. The fact that there are ten (10) other races being run prior to the Preakness race opens up the possibility for the clerk to punch your Preakness race bet on the next available race to be run. If you do not tell the clerk the correct race number (FYI - Preakness is Race 12), he/she will punch your bet for the next available race.

LOCK OF THE CENTURY: This goes hand-in-hand with the above TIP OF THE DAY. When you make a wager, pay the clerk the amount due and grab your ticket, CHECK THE TICKET BEFORE YOU LEAVE THE WINDOW. Every window and every ticket contain these words or something to the effect “check your ticket for accuracy”. Whether you make the bet at 10am when the windows open as you are sipping on your first Bloody Mary or 5 hours later in a drunken stupor, for your own good CHECK YOUR TICKET. The race number will be indicated on the far left side. For example, a $2 WIN bet on # 7 in race 12 will print as R12 $2 WIN 7. In the past few years, track management has taken steps to be more “race track amateur patron friendly” by printing the horse name on any WIN, PLACE and/or SHOW wager ticket on the Preakness race.

Believe me. Since 1988 I’ve worked on Preakness Day as either a Pari-Mutuel Clerk or Supervisor. It happens every year. After the Preakness race, thousands line up to cash their winning ticket. And every year, as a Supervisor I encounter at least one person who is holding a ticket NOT for the Preakness race, but for an earlier race. It has the correct number combination, but the wrong race number. When they go to cash the ticket, the machine displays, “NOT A WINNER”. The clerk informs them of their mistake, they get irate and then the clerk calls me over to handle it. Every one of those persons got even more irate with me after I explain the situation. They threaten to do bodily harm and/or kill me because I won’t give him/her their winnings. There is nothing I can say or do to make it right (aka give them money). It sucks. I feel for them. Preakness Day is the only time they see the inside of a race track. They have no clue how to make a bet. Sometimes it’s not even their bet. They made the bet for a friend who gave them the money to make the bet because they were going to the Preakness. So now they are really in deep do-do! All they had to do was take 5 seconds to check their ticket before leaving the window and this ugly mess could have been avoided. And that’s another problem. Many don’t even know how to read the ticket to know whether or not the ticket is correct.

If your intention is to bet the Preakness race, this year it is the 12^th race on the card. Therefore, the first phrase out of your mouth must be, “At Pimlico in the 12^th race…”. I’d suggest going one step further saying, “I want to bet the Preakness. It’s the 12^th race, right?!” This way you have clearly indicated to the clerk that your bets are for the Preakness race. Still, this is no guarantee that you will get the correct ticket. Clerks are human. They can make mistakes. The first Preakness that I worked as a Pari-Mutuel Clerk, the windows opened at 9:30am at which time I could not see the end of my line… and never could until the last horse entered the starting gate of the Preakness race at 6:04pm. That day I punched over 13,000 tickets! Do you think I made any mistakes?! Considering that was probably the fifth or sixth day that I had ever worked at Pimlico, odds are I made at least a few. If my error rate was 0.10%, then I made 13 mistakes. The mistakes I may have made probably went unnoticed because the person holding the ticket thought it was a loser, when in fact it could have been a winner… in the wrong race. Or one of those mistakes resulted in an irate customer at another window?

I cannot stress this point enough. CHECK YOUR TICKETS BEFORE YOU LEAVE THE WINDOW. If it is incorrect, the clerk can cancel it and reissue the correct ticket. Once the starting gate has opened for the race number printed on that ticket (e.g. R4), it’s a valid wager that cannot be cancelled. Caveat emptor! That is, “Let the buyer beware” holds true at the race track as well.

If you have any specific questions about different types of wagers and/or how much a particular wager costs, please submit a Comment to this blog and I will append a “GQ replied:” to it for all to see.