Super Bowl odds: Are the Ravens a value play?

December 19, 2008 |

First the odds for the top few teams for this years Super Bowl according to intertops.com:

 

New York Giants:          4.25 to 1

Pittsburgh Steelers             5 to 1

Carolina Panthers               8 to 1

Indianapolis Colts              8 to 1

Tennessee Titans                8 to 1

Dallas Cowboys               10 to 1

New York Jets                  21 to 1

Baltimore Ravens           26 to 1

Minnesota Vikings            26 to 1

New England Patriots       26 to 1

Philadelphia Eagles           29 to 1

 

At 26-1 I am seeing some slight value on the Ravens winning the Super Bowl. Basically, if they played this season 26 times from this point on I think they would win it all at least once if not twice.

 

As of now they have to win their last two games against Dallas and Jacksonville to be assured of a playoff spot, but there are other ways they can possibly get in with a win and some help. For this exercise we have to ignore the options of backing in.

 

As the 6th seed they would be looking at traveling to the AFC East winner which as of now would be the Jets. From there they would match up with Tennessee (as of today) and then play the winner of the Indy-Pit game assuming Indy beats up on Denver or San Diego.

 

The key is that we would not have to possibly play both Indy and Pittsburgh which would be tough to overcome. This becomes certain it Tennessee beats Pittsburgh this weekend to clinch the number 1 seed, as if we needed one more reason to root against Pittsburgh.

 

In the Super Bowl there are a number of teams that could show up from the NFC. I think we can play with any of the contenders and we match up favorably against teams such as Carolina, and Philly so I am making our chances in the final game 50-50.

 

All this being said, these are the odds I have placed on the Ravens winning each game as it projects as of today and I have multiplied the percentages to get what  I believe to be their true Super Bowl winning odds. Then again, I am being a little too optimistic.

 

Opponent                     Chance of a win

Dallas                                     60%

Jacksonville                           80%

NY Jets                                  80%

Tennessee                              60%

Pittsburgh                              50%

NFC teams                            50%

Total                                      6% chance or 1 in 16.67

 

After all this, I thought I’d mention that I don’t bet…

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