1st Half Analysis: By the Numbers

July 10, 2011 | Marty Mossa

For all it’s worth, I predicted that the Orioles would play .500 ball this 2011 baseball season.  I figured them to win around 81 games.  When Buck Showalter showed up last year, the birds were destined to lose over 100 games.  Under his leadership, the team went 34-23.  With that in mind, I certainly thought the team would be much better this year and flirt with the .500 mark.  The Orioles last finished above .500 in 1997, 14 years ago.

Although the Orioles are much more improved than they were around the All Star Break last year, they have still been a disappointment. The birds have now lost seven straight games and go into the All Star break a bleak 36-52, sixteen games under .500.

In order for the Orioles to win 81 games and prevent another losing season, they must play .608 ball.  They have already played 88 games, with 74 remaining.  In order to hit the .500 plateau, they must go 45-29.    Since they have played .409 ball thus far this season, it is a lot to ask.  They played .595 ball under Buck last year.  Can they turn it up a notch and do something that hasn’t been done since my 15 year old was one? 

We’ll have to see how the rest of the season plays out.  I think Buck is a good manger and under his leadership I wouldn’t rule it out.  But .608 ball is tough for even the best of  the best in baseball.  .608 ball for a full season gives you 98 wins.  Can the Orioles keep up such a pace for 74 games?