Andrew’s NCAA Football ‘Pick Of The Day’

August 30, 2007 |

The line in the game between LSU and Mississippi State has moved up a couple of points since its’ opener. However, the number still seems fairly reasonable given the class difference between these teams.

Indeed, the Tigers have absolutely owned the Bulldogs, going 11-1 straight up and 10-2 against the spread the past dozen meetings. That includes a 48-17 beat-down last year and a 37-7 thrashing in 2005. The previous year was even worse as LSU routed Mississippi State 51-0 in 2004. In fact, the Bulldogs haven’t stayed within 18 points of the Tigers since the 2000 season! Coincidentally, that was the last time that the Bulldogs finished the year with a winning record.

The Tigers are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times that they were favored by greater than eight points. They’ll face a Bulldogs’ team which is 0-4 ATS in the month of August since 1997 and has lost a total of six defensive starters. The rules have changed back to the way they used to be. This will allow more plays which should allow the better team more time to run up the score. Consider laying the points with LSU.

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