——- (team above is the best in the league)
——- (teams above are still alive for BCS consideration)
——- (teams above are all still bunched together, hoping to Bowl on or after Jan 1)
——- (teams above might ALL get Bowl Eligible, team below certainly will not)
Georgia can do their part by beating Kentucky at home this weekend, but then they have to hope that Vanderbilt or Kentucky can get a win over Tennessee. Georgia is the second best team in the league, and could actually help the SEC by not playing in the Championship Game. If Georgia makes it and loses, it might cost the SEC a second BCS bid. But if Tennessee makes it and Georgia is sitting there with 2 losses, they should be good to go BCS-ing.
——-(teams above are all still alive for BCS bid)
——-(teams above are fighting for remaining bowl berths, teams below are not)
It’s safe to say that I benefited from not getting a chance to write this until after tonight’s Oregon/U of A game. The way I see things right now, USC will probably still beat ASU, and that will leave things VERY messy with three teams having two losses in Pac-10 play. I do not know all of the tie-breaker qualifications off the top of my head, but it will certainly be interesting. By the way, should ASU get by USC, the Wildcats would enjoy NOTHING more than a chance to both spoil ASU’s shot at the Pac 10 AND get bowl eligible themselves.
——- (teams above are all alive for BCS consideration)
——- (teams above SHOULD be able to get bowl eligible)
——- (teams above have work cut out-but 1, maybe 2 will be bowl eligible; teams below are eliminated)
Oklahoma will be tested this weekend at Texas Tech, but they just need to win 1 more game to get to the Big 12 Championship. Kansas will cruise past Iowa State, while Missouri needs to make sure they don’t fall victim to a trap game at Kansas State. A loss and they’re out of the Conference Title hunt. The Nebraska-Colorado winner gets bowl eligible. Kansas State has two chances, first against Missouri, then at a game Fresno State team. Oklahoma State should have no problem winning at Baylor Saturday to clinch their bowl eligibility.
——- (one of these teams above will go BCS-ing)
——- (teams above are fighting for New Year’s bowling)
——- (teams above are all trying to get into bowl games, team below is not)
Despite the losses, Ohio State and Michigan are still playing with the conference title on the line. Ohio State needs to go into the game thinking there might still be a trip to the national championship game on the line as well. (Remember Nebraska’s loss to Colorado in 2001? Remember how two weeks later everyone had lost and Nebraska was back in the picture?) If Michigan loses and Illinois beats Northwestern, Illinois SHOULD get the Capital One Bowl bid, despite their loss to Michigan. Every team in the league will be bowl eligible besides Minnesota, so teams like Michigan State, Indiana, and Northwestern could be playing for their bowl lives this weekend-especially considering that Purdue already has 7 wins and Iowa should easily get their 7th against Western Michigan.
——- (all teams above are alive for BCS consideration)
——- (all teams above COULD get bowl eligible-none are clearly superior; teams below will not be playing post-sesason)
While Virginia Tech has remained my pick to win the ACC all season, they will have to go to Charlottesville and win just to get to Jacksonville, and that won’t be easy. The Clemson-Boston College winner will play for the ACC title, and where does Boston College reach for to find the heart to snap a 2 game streak at the Tigers? Teams 5-9 have nothing guaranteed at this point, and all are fighting for the chance to go bowling, even if they get eligible. Miami has the chance to get eligible, but with trips to VT and BC left, I expect they’ll finish 5-7.
West Virginia is obviously the class of this league, but they still have to go to Cincinnati, host UConn, and visit Pitt to clinch the league. I will pick them to win all 3, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they suffered a loss on the way. Attention fans of teams on the bowl bubble: root like HELL for South Florida and Rutgers to beat Louisville. Louisville, who was once thought to be a national championship contender, could find themselves 5-7 without beating the Bulls or Knights.
IF THEY ALL FINISH…..
Let’s be honest, there are only 9 teams left with 0 or 1 loss. Two of those teams are Hawaii and Boise State. Three of those teams all play in the Big 12, and only one of that group can have the chance to play for the National Championship. Really, that means that only 5 teams are still alive for National Championship consideration: LSU, WVU, Ohio State, Arizona State, and the Big 12 Champion. LSU and the Big 12 teams now have destiny defaulted to them. But this will get messy still.
BCS National Championship Game (Jan 7, New Orleans)
LSU vs. Oklahoma
Remember back when we all thought this would be the best match-up, with the two most talented teams in the country? Well, for right now, we’re back to that thought. LSU still has Arkansas and a SEC Championship Game, so they’re not out of trouble yet. Oklahoma has Texas Tech and a Big 12 Championship Game, so this could still be very interesting. I’ll stick with the Sooners.
FedEx Orange Bowl (Jan 3, Miami)
West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
Talk about tough roads: WVU has Cincinnati and UConn; Virginia Tech has a trip to Virginia and an ACC Championship Game. But I’ll stick with these two teams, as I still think Virginia Tech is the most complete team in the ACC, and West Virginia is the most explosive team in the Big East.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (Jan 2, Glendale)
USC vs. Hawaii
No matter what, ASU will not be in this game. And if they lose to USC, the will have losses to both of the other Top Pac 10 teams, meaning I have to keep them third in the conference. Since USC played in the Rose Bowl last year, I’m assuming they’ll pick someone else. If Colt Brennan is healthy, Hawaii should be fine.
Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan 1, New Orleans)
Texas vs. Georgia
I’ve maintained all season that Texas will be an attractive 2 loss team for BCS Bowls. Texas brings a bigger crowd than Missouri or Kansas, and they’ll have more recent losses. Georgia will benefit if Tennessee runs the table in the SEC, meaning they won’t take another loss, and will be a good option to go to New Orleans.
Rose Bowl Presented by Citi (Jan 1, Pasadena)
Oregon vs. Ohio State
Even if Dennis Dixon is out, I think Oregon can win out. This match-up would actually be great for ABC, as it is a traditional Pac-10/Big Ten showdown, and the teams haven’t been there recently. If Dennis Dixon is healthy, this looks even more appealing.
Heisman Top 5:
Colt Brennan, Hawaii
Tim Tebow, Florida
Darren McFadden, Arkansas
Todd Reesing, Kansas
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma