Fantasy Football Forum

December 20, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

QB
 
Give the edge to Roethlisberger in this one. St. Louis is the 19th ranked defense in terms of fantasy points allowed, averaging 233yds and 1.4 TD allowed. The Steelers appear to have a healthy wide receiver corps, and should look to set the pace early in this one. I am still wary of the tendency to be flat on Thursdays. I’ll give Roethlisberger a B- in this one.
 
Marc Bulger has had a tough season, and that should continue this week. Despite being torched a few times this season, Pittsburgh’s defense ranks third in fantasy points allowed to QBs. They give up just 187 yds and 1.3 TD per game. Add in the short week and the amount of wear and tear Bulger has endured this season and I’ll give him a C this week.
 
RB
 
St. Louis has struggled to stop running backs this season too. They rank 23rd among fantasy defenses against running backs, giving up 107 yds and 0.9 TD per game. Willie Parker owners have learned by now to expect the 100 yds and hope for a TD. If Pittsburgh is able to put this away early Parker could have a big day. I’ll give him a B+ in this one, with the short week being the biggest concern.
 
Stephen Jackson should have no one to share carries with this week with Travis Minor out and Brian Leonard questionable, he’ll face the toughest run defense in the league this week though. The Steelers have given up the least points to fantasy RBs this season allowing just 70 yds and 0.3 TD per game. It’s tough to give Jackson any better than a C in this one.
 
WR
 
Holmes and Ward are both TD threats, but I wouldn’t count on either for big yardage. The Rams rank 25th among defenses in points allowed to WRs, giving up 170 yds and 0.9 TD per game. Give Holmes a B+ since he seems to be the big play threat, and Ward a B. I’d still temper my expectations overall for offense in this one. Nate Washington is listed as probable this week, and is a TD threat at best; I’d avoid him and Cedric Wilson this week. Give both D’s.
 
The Steelers are ranked 15th among fantasy defenses to wide receivers, allowing 137 yds and 0.9 TD per game. Tory Holt is a probably the Rams best play this week. It looks like St. Louis will be forced to pass it in this one. A big day for Bulger isn’t out of the question, just tough to expect against a strong defense in a short week. I’ll give Holt a B in this one. Isaac Bruce has tapered off in recent weeks and should have a tough time with the short week, I’ll give him a C. Give Drew Bennett a C as well, he has been picking up Bruce’s slack in recent weeks and appears healthy.
 
TE
 
Both teams are tough against tight ends. St. Louis is ranked 15th against TEs giving up 30 yds and 0.5 TD per game. Heath Miller has been a TD threat all year, especially given Parker’s struggles in the red zone. Give Miller a B- this week. Jerame Tuman is a TD threat and not much more, give him a C-, and a D for Matt Spaeth who only catches TDs.
 
Pittsburgh is ranked 3rd against TEs, allowing just 38 yds and 0.2 TD per game. It’s hard to imagine McMichael not getting a chance or two in the red zone, especially given Pittsburgh’s tough run defense. Give McMichael a B- in this one too.
 
Kickers and Defenses
 
The Steelers have been sacked 43 times and intercepted 12 times this season. The Rams have been sacked 44 times and picked off 23 times. Defensively, the Steelers have picked up 33 sacks and just 9 ints; the Rams have gotten 27 sacks and 16 ints. Both teams have one defensive TD and one special teams TD this season. Tough to pick a winner in this pairing, but I’ll give both C+’s with the slight edge to Pittsburgh who should be able to force the Rams to have to pass more.
 
St. Louis is giving up twice as many points per game to kickers as the Steelers for what that’s worth. The game is in a dome, which is a positive for the kickers on both sides, however the amount of offense we’ll see in this one is still in question. I’ll give Jeff Reed a B in this one and Jeff Wilkins a C+. 
 
Good Luck this week to those who still have something to play for.
 
Peace,
T
 

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Fantasy Football Forum

December 13, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

The best fantasy advice that I am able to give you is to stay out of the Thursday games altogether if you can help it. They are usually poorly played, and devoid of very much offense. With that said, if you are fortunate enough (notice that I didn’t say lucky) to be in the playoffs, and need a sleeper or have regular starters in this game, here is your Thursday game preview:
 
Quarterbacks
 
Jay Cutler is 10th in the league in passing yards but has just 17 TDs on the season. Houston’s defense has been tough on QBs this season allowing the 10th least fantasy points to QBs. On average fantasy QBs are throwing for 229 yds. and 1.3 TDs against them, throw in a banged up receiving corps and the Thursday fatigue factor and it looks like a tough draw for Cutler. Give him a B- in this match up.
 
Rosenfels is the guy that you should be really looking at in this one. Not because he should light it up as much as he’s a guy who you may be able to grab on waivers this week. With that said the match up looks good too. Denver is ranked 30th among defenses against fantasy QBs giving up an average of 210 yds. and 1.6 TDs per contest. Give Rosenfels a B- in this one too, as sleepers go, that’s not bad.
 
Running backs
 
Mike Shanahan did Travis Henry owners dirty last week, giving Selvin Young the load to carry. Neither back is on the injury report this week, so maybe Shanahan was resting Henry for this one. If I had to pick one, I’d go with Henry, but both are high risk high reward picks this week. The split makes them dangerous starts, especially for the playoffs, but the draw couldn’t be better. Houston is 28th ranked among fantasy defenses against running backs, giving up an average of 106 yds and 1 TD per game and another 43 yds. receiving. I’ll give Henry a B- and Young a C+ in this one, but it’s a risky pick.
 
With no Ahman Green and Ron Dayne questionable with an ankle injury, Darius Walker or Adimchinobi Echamandu could be sleepers against a defense that gives up about 105 yds and 0.5 TD per game to starting RBs. Give Walker a C+ and Echamandu a C- in this one.
 
Wide Receivers
 
Brandon Stokley and Javon Walker are both listed as questionable with knee injuries for this one, don’t expect anything big from either of them. A tough draw and a short week have them both as C’s in my book this week. B+ for Brandon Marshall though, who should benefit from their absence, especially if Denver can run. Glenn Martinez is a C- if either Stokely or Walker is out, and a C if both are out.
 
Denver is a good match up for you wide receivers and the Texans will need to throw it if they’re going to have a chance here. Give Andre Johnson a B+, the short week and Rosenfels at QB are his biggest drawbacks. Andre Davis is a C+ at best in this one and give Kevin Walter a C. Remember don’t use these guys if you can help it.
 
Tight Ends
 
Denver’s defense has been the worst against tight ends this season. I am not sure how much of that has to do with playing in a division with Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates, but it looks like a great draw for Owen Daniels. I always like tight ends when the backup QB is playing too. Give Daniels a B+ here too.
 
The fact that they share time is the biggest hindrance for Tony Schefler and Daniel Graham. Schefler is probable with a knee injury this week but is the better start. Give Schefler a C and Graham a C-.
 
Kickers and Defenses
 
For what it’s worth, both teams are among the bottom 10 in terms of points allowed to kickers this season. Kris Brown is a top 5 kicker and is probable in this one. Elam has been somewhat disappointing. It looks like a good draw for both, Houston looks like a relatively kicker friendly stadium, we may see a lot of field goals in this one. Give both kickers A’s this week.
 
Houston’s offense has allowed 20 INTs and 21 sacks this season, and Denver’s defense has 21 INTs and 28 sacks. Denver’s offense has allowed 18 INTs and 22 sacks, and Houston’s defense has picked up just 11 INTs to go with 23 sacks. Houston has scored 3 TDs on defense and 2 on special teams, and Denver has given up 4 defensive TDs and 3 more on special teams. Denver has scored 2 defensive and 1 special teams TDs, and Houston has given up 3 on defense and 0 on special teams.
 
All of that said, it’s a crapshoot, I’ll give Houston a B and Denver a B-.
 
More to follow and good luck this week.
 
Peace,
T

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Fantasy Football Forum

December 06, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

Quarterbacks
 
This looks like a good draw for Grossman who hasn’t thrown for 300 yds. or more than 1 TD in a game since his return to the starting lineup. Washington has given up the 8th most points to Fantasy QBs this season, averaging 224 yds. and 1.4 TD through the air, they are also allowing QBs to rush for another 0.3 TD per game. I’ll give Grossman a solid B this week, the Bears will have to do some passing in order to have a chance.
 
Jason Campbell has made fantasy owners step up and take notice over the past month or so, but struggled last week in a seemingly good match up with Buffalo. The Bears have done a very good job defending QBs this season, in terms of Fantasy points at least. They are 7th ranked among fantasy defenses, allowing 240 yds. and 1.1 TD on average this season. It will not be a great draw for Campbell, but it looks like he’ll have a relatively healthy bunch of receivers, and Washington may have to pass more than they’d like if Portis is less than 100%. I’ll give Campbell a B- in this match up.
 
Running Backs
 
Washington has one of the better defenses this season at defending running backs. They are giving up 81 yds. & 0.4 TD per game on the ground, and 50 yds. and 0.2 receiving TDs to RBs; that’s 13th ranked among fantasy RB defenses. Adrian Peterson (the other one) has been effective but not a world-beater by any means. He has however found a pretty big role in the receiving game too. It’s not a great match up for him, but as sleepers go, it’s not a bad play either. I’ll call Peterson a C+ this week.
 
The Bears on the other hand have had one of the consistently worst run defenses all season. They are allowing 137 yds. and 1.6 TDs on the ground and another 39 yds .and 0.1 TD to running backs through the air this season. Portis is officially listed as probable this week with a shoulder injury, but he’s a guy that you have to have in if he’s playing. Even though he put in a somewhat disappointing performance against a Buffalo defense that he seemed to match up very well with last week. He still looks like the best play available in this game and grades out as an A-.
 
Wide Receivers
 
Surprisingly the Redskins have done a much better job at stopping wide receivers that their pass defense seems to indicate. In terms of fantasy points allowed, the Redskins rank 9th at defending wide receivers; they are giving up 136 yds. and 0.8 TD per game to wide receivers. This looks like a good draw for Berrian who is the Bears’ best big play option and could take advantage of a reeling Redskins secondary. I’ll give Berrian a B+ this week.
 
Mushin Muhammad’s value went up a great deal when Griese was inserted as the starter, and has slid backward a bit since Grossman’s return. Still Muhammad has been more involved in Grossman’s offense than he was the first time around, and is probably the Bears best possession receiver. He should enjoy this match up as well, I’ll give him a B- this week.
 
Devin Hester is probably a sleeper option in deep leagues at best. Special teams always make him dangerous, and the Redskins have given up 1 special teams TD this season. With Hester back from the injury report, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he plays some offense tonight too. His speed and Grossman’s arm could have big possibilities against this defense, but it’s a pretty big gamble still. I’ll give Hester a C in this match up.
 
The Bears haven’s been as good as the Redskins at defending wide receivers this season, they are allowing an average of 155 yds and 0.8 TD per game, that’s 17th ranked among all teams. Santana Moss returned modestly last week, but is off of the injury report altogether this week and will need to play a much bigger role if the Redskins are going to have a chance in this game. One TD on the season so far is a concern for Moss, and it’s unlikely he’ll get many looks in the red zone with Cooley and Portis being better options there. Moss will need to rely on the big play if he’ll be effective this week. I’ll give Moss a B- in this one. The big play threat is there, but not much else to be hopeful about.
 
Antwaan Randle-El is second on the team in receiving yards this season, just 8 yards behind Cooley. But he has yet to get into the end zone this season. He is also listed on the injury report as probable with a hamstring injury. It’s tough to get excited about him this week, I’ll give him a C-.
 
As for the rest, James Thrash is out and therefore not an option. Keenan McCardell and Rechee Caldwell are both sleepers, either is liable to get involved in the offense tonight, Campbell has been spreading the ball around a lot more. Both are just as likely to not see the light of day today either, and given that it looks like a tough draw for Campbell, it’s tough to go with either one this week. I’ll give both D’s this in this match up.
 
Tight Ends
 
Much like Muhammad, Gregg Olsen’s value went up substantially under Greise and seems to have taken a hit with Grossman back as the starter. Also like Muhammad, he seems to be looked to more by Grossman this time around but still doesn’t enjoy the same value that he had a month ago. The match up looks good for the Bears’ tight ends this week; Washington is allowing an average of 41 yds. and 0.3 TD to tight ends this season.
 
The fact that there are 2 prominent tight ends in the offense hurts these guys’ value more than anything. Desmond Clark seems to be the favorite of Grossman’s so I’ll give him a B- in this match up. I’ll give Olsen a C+. Both are TD threats, especially without Benson in the lineup, Clark is the more likely of the 2 to get any kind of substantial yardage in this one.
 
Chris Cooley is a guy that you’re not going to sit, regardless of match up. For what it’s worth, Chicago ranks 22nd among fantasy defenses in terms of tight end points allowed. That looks like a great draw for him, throw in the fact that Portis is a little banged up, and things look really strong for Cooley in the red zone tonight. It looks like an A+ start for Cooley this week, but as I said you don’t want to sit him anyway.
 
Defenses and Kickers
 
It’s tough to grade these out, they are pretty much hit or miss plays. Robbie Gould is 4/4 from 20-29 this season, he’s 8/9 from 30-39, 11/12 from 40-49, and 0/2 from 50+. Shaun Suisham is 6/6 from 20-29, 7/8 from 30-39, 9/11 from 40-49, and 0/1 from 50+. Slight edge here to Gould, but it doesn’t look like good kicking weather this week. You probably want to look for better options.
 
On defense, Washington looks like a slightly better play. Chicago has allowed 38 sacks, 6th most in the league. The Redskins have 26sacks on the season ,which is 15th in the NFL. The Bears have also allowed the second most INTs in the league with 17, the Skins defense has picked off just 9 passes on the season, 29th best in the NFL.
 
As for the Bears defense, the Redskins have allowed 20 sacks on the season, that’s the 20th most in the league but the Bears are third in the NFL with 34 sacks themselves. The Redskins passing game has allowed just 11 INTs on the season, which is 23rd most in the league. And like Washington the Bears defense is tied for 29th with just 9 INTs on the season. Don’t forget the Devin Hester factor though in this one.
 
More Grades to follow and good luck this week.
 
Peace,
T

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Fantasy Football Forum

November 30, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

The Week 13 Fantasy RB grades have been posted in the Ravens section of the forums, you can check them out here. You can still check the QB grades for this week there as well, and of course the grades for every player worth a look in tonights game too. While you are there, sign up and post. It’s free and you’re automatically registered to win a 42” Plasma TV.
 
Good Luck this week and enjoy tonight’s game if you are able to see it.
 
Peace,
T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

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Fantasy Football Forum

November 29, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

The Week 13 Fantasy QB grades have been posted in the Ravens section of the new WNST Forums, you can check them out here. It’s every QB worth considering this week, and a few more who probably aren’t.
 
While you’re there, check out the complete player grades for the Packers @ the Cowboys on Thursday night. And register for the forums for a chance to win a 42” Plasma TV.
 
Keep checking back, running back grades will be next. Good luck this week.
 
Peace,
T

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Fantasy Football Forum

November 28, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

I allowed the Week to get away from me early last week with the holiday. So I wanted to get a jump on this week’s games for you. The player grades for the Packers / Cowboys game on Thursday are posted here in the new WNST forums.

If you haven’t registered for the forums yet you can do it here and you’ll automatically be entered into a drawing for a 42” plasma TV. I have checked out most of the other Baltimore sports message boards and I believe that this will be the best of them all. Hosts and correspondents will be reading and posting, maybe even taking your questions into the locker room. What other message board can offer that?

Check back on the forums for the grades by position as the week progresses, and good luck this week.

Peace,
T
(thyrl@wnst.net)

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Fantasy Football Forum

November 17, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

Check out the show at 4 o’clock today for detailed game by game previews and check back after the show for more week 11 fantasy info.

Good Luck this week.

Peace,
T
(thyrl@wnst.net)

Quarterbacks

A+ – Kurt Warner vs. CIN; Tony Romo vs. WAS; Tom Brady vs. BUF

A

A- – Eli Manning vs. DET; Jon Kitna vs. NYG

B+ – Brett Favre vs. CAR; Peyton Manning vs. KC; Donavan McNabb vs. DET; Marc Bulger vs. SF

B – Matt Schaub vs. NO; Ben Roethlisberger vs. NYJ; Jason Campbell vs. DAL; Matt Hasselbeck vs. CHI

B- – Carson Palmer vs. AZ; David Garrard vs. SD; Derek Anderson vs. BAL; Kyle Boller vs. CLE; Drew Brees vs. HOU; JP Lohsman vs. NE

C+ – Jeff Garcia vs. ATL; Daunte Culpepper vs. MIN; Phillip Rivers vs. JAX; Vince Young vs. DEN; Jay Cutler vs. TEN

C – Trent Dilfer vs. ST.L; Rex Grossman vs. SEA

C- – Kellen Clemens vs. PIT

D+ – Joey Harrington / Byron Leftwich vs. TB; Vinny Testaverde vs. GB

D – Brodie Croyle vs. IND; Tavaris Jackson vs. OAK; John Beck vs. PHI

D- – Tim Rattay vs. CIN; David Carr vs. GB

Running Backs

A+ -

A – Brandon Jacobs vs. DET; Brain Westbrook vs. MIA

A- – Willie Parker vs. NYJ; Lawrence Maroney vs. BUF

B+ – Ryan Grant vs. CAR; Chester Taylor vs. OAK; LaDanian Tomlinson vs. JAX; Frank Gore vs. ST.L

B – Warrick Dunn vs. TB; Edgerin James vs. CIN; Joseph Addai vs. KC; Reggie Bush vs. HOU; Clinton Portis vs. DAL: Chris Brown vs. DEN

B- – Maurice Jones-Drew vs. SD; Willis McGahee vs. SD; Marion Barber vs. WAS; Steven Jackson vs. SF; Cedric Benson vs. SEA; LenDale White vs. DEN

C+ – Michael Pittman vs. ATL; Rudi Johnson vs. AZ; Kenny Watson vs. AZ; Kevin Jones vs. NYG; Fred Taylor vs. SD; Ron Dayne vs. NO; Julius Jones vs. WAS; Shaun Alexander vs. CHI

C – Ernest Graham vs. ATL; Jerious Norwood vs. TB; DeShaun Foster vs. GB; Preist Holmes vs. IND; Correll Buckhalter vs. MIA; Maurice Morris vs. CHI; Travis Henry vs. TEN

C- – Justin Fargas vs. MIN; Jesse Chatman vs. PHI; Jamal Lewis vs. BAL; Thomas Jones vs. PIT; DeWayne Wright vs. NE; Anthony Thomas vs. NE; Selvin Young vs. TEN

D+ – DeAngelo Williams vs. GB; Kenton Keith vs. KC; Kevis Faulk vs. BUF

D – Reuben Droughns vs. DET; TJ Duckett vs. NYG; Brandon Jackson vs. CAR; Greg Jones vs. SD; LaBrandon Toefield vs. SD; Aaron Stecker vs. HOU; Leon Washington vs. PIT; Ladell Betts vs. DAL; Mike Sellars vs. DAL

D- – JJ Arrington vs. CIN; Lamont Jordan vs. MIN; Pierre Thomas vs. HOU; Brian Leonard vs. SF; Michael Robinson vs. ST.L’ Adrian Peterson vs. SEA

Wide Receivers

A+ – Anquan Boldin vs. CIN; Larry Fitzgerald vs. CIN; TJ Houshmandzadeh vs. AZ

A – Braylon Edwards vs. BAL

A- – Chad Johnson vs. AZ; Plaxico Buress vs. DET; Terrell Owens vs. WAS; Randy Moss vs. BUF

B+ – Chris Henry vs. AZ; Andre Johnson vs. NO; Santonio Holmes vs. NYJ; Tory Holt vs. SF; Wes Welker vs. BUF

B – Amani Toomer vs. DET; Greg Jennings vs. CAR; Reggie Wayne vs. KC; Kevin Curtis vs. MIA; Reggie Brown vs. MIA; Hines Ward vs. NYJ; Santana Moss vs. DAL; Dante Stallworth vs. BUF; Lee Evans NE

B- – Joey Galloway vs. ATL; Roy Williams vs. NYG; Donald Driver vs. CAR; James Jones vs. CAR; Marques Colston vs. HOU; David Patten vs. HOU; Andre Davis vs. NO; Antoine Randle-El vs. DAL; Patrick Crayton vs. WAS; Bernard Berrian vs. SEA; Brandon Marshall vs. TEN

C+ – Calvin Johnson vs. NYG; Shaun McDonald vs. NYG; Steve Smith vs. GB; Ronald Curry vs. MIN; Jerry Porter vs. MIN; Derek Hagans vs. PHI; Tedd Ginn Jr. vs. PHI; Chris Chambers vs. JAX; Reggie Williams vs. SD; Joe Jureviscius vs. BAL; Derrick Mason vs. CLE; Mark Clayton vs. CLE; Kevin Walters vs. NO; Laverneus Coles vs. PIT; Issaac Bruce vs. SF; Darrell Jackson vs. STL; Deion Branch vs. CHI; DJ Hackett vs. CHI; Brandon Jones vs. DEN

C – Ike Hilliard vs. ATL; Roddy White vs. TB; Bryant Johnson vs. CIN; Mike Furrey vs. NYG; Drew Carter vs. GB; Marty Booker vs. PHI; Dennis Northcutt vs. SD; DeVry Henderson vs. HOU; Lance Moore vs. HOU; Jacoby Jones vs. NO; Nate Washington vs. NYJ; Keenan McCardell vs. DAL; Mushin Muhammad vs. DAL; Devin Hester vs. SEA; Bobby Engram vs. CHI; Josh Reed vs. NE; Justin Gage vs. DEN; Brandon Stokley vs. TEN

C- – Santana Moss vs. PIT; Keary Colbert vs. GB; DeWayne Bowe vs. IND; Eddie Kennison vs. IND; Johnnie Lee Higgins vs. MIN; Tim Dwight vs. MIN; Vincent Jackson vs. JAX; Jehricho Cothcery vs. PIT; Arnaz Battle vs. ST.L; Nate Burleson vs. CHI; Roscoe Parrish vs. NE; Roydell Williams vs. DEN

D+ – Ruvell Martin vs. CAR; Troy Williamson vs. OAK; Jason Avant vs. MIS; Drew Bennett vs. SF

D – Michael Clayton vs. ATL; Michael Jenkins vs. TB; Jehereme Urban vs. CIN; Bobby Wade vs. OAK; Sydney Rice vs. OAK; Ernest Wilford vs. SD; Matt Jones vs. SD; Cedrick Wilson vs. NYJ; Brad Smith vs. PIT; Sam Hurd vs. WAS; Jabar Gafney vs. BUF

D- – Glenn Holt vs. AZ; Antonio Chatman vs. AZ; Troy Walters vs. NYG; Tim Carter vs. BAL; Marques Hagans vs. SF; Bryan Gilmore vs. STL; Ben Obamanu vs. CHI

Tight Ends

A+ – Jeremy Shockey vs. DET

A – Antonio Gates vs. JAX; Jason Witten vs. WAS

A- – Ben Watson vs. BUF

B+ – Leonard Pope vs. CIN; Kellen Winslow Jr. vs. BAL; Heath Miller vs. NYJ

B – Todd Heap vs. CLE; Eric Johnson vs. HOU; Vernon Davis vs. STL

B- – Dallas Clark vs. KC; LJ Smith vs. MIA; Chris Cooley vs. DAL; Randy McMichael vs. SF; Bo Sciafe vs. DEN

C+ – Sean McHugh vs. NYG; Jeff King vs. GB; Donald Lee vs. CAR; Tony Gonzalez vs. IND; Zach Miller vs. MIN; David Martin vs. OHI; Matt Spaeth vs. NYJ; Chris Baker vs. PIT; Desmond Clark vs. SEA; Marcus Pollard vs. CHI; Robert Royal vs. NE

C – Alge Crumpler vs. TB; Mercedes Lewis vs. SD; Owen Daniels vs. NO; Greg Olsen vs. SEA

D+ – Vinsinthe Shiancoe vs. OAK

D – Reggie Kelly vs. AZ; Ben Utecht vs. KC; Jehereme Tuman vs. NYJ; Will Heller vs. CHI

D- – Jeremy Stevens vs. ATL; Justin Peele vs. PHI; Jeb Putzier vs. NO; Delany Walker vs. ST.L

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Fantasy Football Forum

November 11, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

Hope this helps and good luck this week.

Week 10 Grades by Position

Week 10 Player by Player Previews

Week 10 Fantasy Cheat Sheet

Printable Week 10 Fantasy Cheat Sheet

Have a great week.

Peace, T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

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Fantasy Football Forum

November 08, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

The Week 10 Fantasy Cheat Sheet is here …

It’s a team by team stat pack that you can use to compare players and match-ups, especially helpful for those tough lineup decisions.

The printable version is up to 84 pages so make sure to either print it at work or choose the pages that you want to print. As always both versions are hyperlinked for easier navigation.

Week 10 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet

Week 10 Cheat Sheet – Printable

Hope this helps. Catch the show on Saturday at 4 p.m. for game-by-game analysis, and check back here after the show for grades on every player worth considering.

Good luck this week.

Peace,
T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

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Fantasy Football Forum

November 04, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

 Here is everything that I have for this week, enjoy and good luck.

 Week 9 Player Grades

Week 9 Fantasy Cheat Sheet

Printable Week 9 Cheat Sheet

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

 

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Fantasy Football Forum

October 25, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet Week 8

Printable Week 8 Cheat Sheet

I’ll be back with more soon. Good Luck this week.

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

 

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Fantasy Football Forum

October 21, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

As promised, here are all of the show notes along wth this week’s cheatsheets.

 

Fantast Football Cheat Sheet Week 7

Week 7 Printable Cheat Sheet

With the Terps game, the ALCS and the UFC pay per view tonight, I am officailly done thinking about fantasy football until tomorrow morning.

Good Luck this week.

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

Baltimore (4-2; 1-2 away) @ Buffalo (1-4; 1-2 home)
Last Week: The Ravens beat the Rams 22-3 in BAL; The Bills had a Bye.
 
Baltimore
 
Passing- Kyle Boller will get the start for the Ravens this week, and should be a great sleeper.
The Bills defense has allowed teams to do whatever they want so far, making things look good for Boller.
Injuries to the receiving corps and the Bills inability to stop the run should be the only thing that could slow Boller down this week.
 
Rushing- Willis McGahee was mysteriously absent from practice on Wednesday, but there is no indication that he is injured, keep an eye on that situation.
McGahee should be extra motivated against the Bills this week, he had some harsh words for the organization on his way out of Buffalo.
 
Receiving- Derek Mason and Demetrius Williams have both been limited in practice this week, but will probably play.
Todd Heap is still battling a hamstring and Dan Wilcox a toe injury.
Mark Clayton has yet to get things going, maybe this is his week to breakout with everyone else hurt.
Quinn Sypneiwski should be a good sleeper against this defense with the injuries at tight end.
 
Buffalo
 
Passing- Trent Edwards will get the start for the Bills against the Ravens this week.
Edwards should have to pass the ball given Baltimore’s ability to stop the run.
Baltimore is dealing with injuries all over, but injuries in the secondary could play right into Edwards hands.
The Bills offense has been bad against some bad defenses already, they should have a tough time this week too.
 
Rushing- Marshawn Lynch has been a workhorse and a bit of a pleasant surprise for the Bills.
He’d be even better if the Bills had any type of passing game to keep defenses honest.
Look for a better option this week if you have one, this will be a long day for Lynch.
 
Receiving- Get Lee Evans in, without Chris McAllister in, Buffalo’s big play threat should get some chances this week.
Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed could both be decent sleepers because of the injuries in Baltimore’s secondary.
But the Bills have just 4 offensive TDs so far, so temper your expectations.
 
Minnesota (2-3; 1-2 away) @ Dallas (4-1; 2-1 home)
Last Week: The Vikings beat the Bears 34-31 in CHI; The Cowboys lost to the Patriots 48-27 in DAL
 
Minnesota
 
Passing- Tavaris Jackson has been limited in practice this week, keep an eye on that situation if you have to.
Kelly Holcomb would be the starter in the event that Jackson doesn’t play.
Neither is a very attractive option against the Dallas pass defense this week.
Good passing teams have had success against Dallas, but bad passing teams struggle, Minnesota will probably struggle.
 
Rushing- The Cowboys run defense has been very good, so don’t expect another 200+ from Adrian Peterson this week.
Temper you expectations, but don’t go away from Peterson.
Chester Taylor is a decent fill in, he got 2 more carries than Peterson last week.
 
Receiving- No reason to be excited about any of Minnesota’s wide outs this season, and certainly not this week.
Troy Williamson, Bobby Wade, Sidney Rice and Robert Ferguson are the names, in case you need a pick up this week, they’ll all play.
None of them are likely to do much so avoid them if you can.
 
Dallas
 
Passing- The Cowboys will have to throw it against the Vikings this week, and at this point there’s very little reason to go away from Tony Romo anyway.
The Vikings are allowing 288 yards per game through the air, that’s the league’s worst.
 
Rushing- If you have better options than the Cowboys RBs this week, you should use them.
The Vikings are giving up a league second best 66 yds rushing per game and haven’t allowed a rushing TD yet.
Barber could steal a TD, but there are better options out there this week, and keep Julius Jones on the bench this week.
 
Receiving- Get those Cowboys receivers in there this week.
The Vikings have given up 725 yds and 5 tds through the air in their last 2 games.
Owens, Witten and Crayton are all great options this week.
 
Tampa Bay (4-2; 1-2 away) @ Detroit (3-2; 2-0 home)
Last Week: The Bucs beat the Titans 13-10 in TB; The Lions had a Bye.
 
Tampa Bay
 
Passing- If you’ve been having to use Jeff Garcia up to this point, you should get more than you are used to this week.
It’s hard to expect big things from the Tampa passing game, but given their limited runners, and the Lions defense, things look good for Garcia this week.
 
Rushing- Ernest Graham should get the bulk of the carries, and is a good pickup against a horrible defense this week.
Michael Bennett might be worth a pickup, but probably won’t see much action this week.
 
Receiving- Joey Galloway should definitely be in your lineup against this defense, especially with the injuries in the running game.
If you have Michael Clayton or Ike Hilliard, this is the week that you could get something out of them too.
 
Detroit
 
Passing- The Bucs have been better against the pass than the run so far.
Jon Kitna has too many weapons to not be dangerous no matter who they are playing; keep him in.
 
Rushing- Kevin Jones appears to be back in the starters role, and could have a good day against Tampa.
The Bucs have been uncharacteristically weak against the run so far.
Tatum Bell appears to have lost most of his value now that Jones is back as the starter.
 
Receiving- The Lions should have a tough day throwing against the Bucs pass defense, but should be able to capitalize on the underneath routes.
Roy Williams, Shaun McDonald, Calvin Johnson and Mike Furrey are all good starts, but don’t expect a lot of big plays from them in this one.
 
New England (6-0; 3-0 away) @ Miami (0-6; 0-2 home)
Last Week: The Patriots beat the Cowboys 48-27 in DAL; The Dolphins lost to the Browns 41-31 in CLE.
 
New England
 
Passing- Do you need me to tell you to start Tom Brady this week?
OK, start Tom Brady this week.
 
Rushing- With Sammy Morris out, the Pats will be counting on Maroney to be back strong this week.
The Dolphins run defense has given up gaudy run numbers every week so far.
Kevin Faulk could be a great sleeper this week, depending on how the Pats try to ease Maroney back into things.
 
Receiving- It seems that the guys who are on the injury report are the ones who score for the Pats each week.
Stallworth and Welker are both good options until further notice.
You aren’t going to sit Randy Moss in any week that he’s healthy.
Ben Watson may not play, Kyle Brady would be a great sleeper in his absence.
 
Miami
 
Passing- Cleo Lemon should have to air it out against the Pats, who should open this one up relatively easily.
The Pats defense has given up some points this year, mostly through the air. They have been pretty stingy with yardage though.
It might be time to pick up John Beck, he may be the Dolphins starter very soon.
 
Rushing- Ronnie Brown is in for a tough week this week, but has been one of the best running backs in the league so far, keep him in.
Brown has been a big part of the passing game so far this year too.
 
Receiving- Marty Booker’s value might be at a seasonal high with the trade of Chris Chambers this week.
David Martin has been limited in practice, keep an eye on his situation.
Tedd Ginn and Derek Hagan both saw their sleeper value go up with the Chambers trade too, both are decent pickups in a week where the Dolphins figure to be playing from way behind.
 
Atlanta (1-5;0-3 away) @ New Orleans (1-4; 0-2 home)
Last Week: The Falcons lost 31-10 to the Giants in ATL; The Saints beat the Seahawks 28-17 in SEA
 
Atlanta
 
Passing- The Falcons will turn to Byron Leftwich this week, in favor of Joey Harrington.
Leftwich looked pretty bad in his one appearance for the Falcons so far, and it remains to be seen how much of the playbook will be available on Sunday.
Any QB could be dangerous against the Saints defense, and Atlanta will be looking for a spark this week.
 
Rushing- Atlanta has had a tough time getting things going on the ground so far, the Saints can help with that.
Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood should probably both be considered sleepers at this point.
Both appear to be great sleepers this week.
 
Receiving- Alge Crumpler has been limited in practice this week, keep an eye on his situation.
Who knows who Leftwich will develop chemistry with?
Against the Saints, Roddy White, Michael Jenkins and Joe Horn could all be good options for this week.
 
New Orleans
 
Passing- Drew Brees appeared to right the ship at least slightly last week.
Stick with Brees and hope he can keep things going right, but the Falcon defense has been tough to pass on this year.
This will be a good test of whether or not Brees is really back.
 
Rushing- Reggie Bush is the guy, keep him in.
The Falcons defense has been very beatable on the ground, the Saints will need Bush to balance out their passing game.
 
Receiving- Only one catch for Marques Colston last week, but it was a TD.
Colston and DeVry Henderson have been disappointing so far, unfortunately there still aren’t many better options out there in most leagues.
David Patten finally started to live up to his preseason hype last week. He’s a good sleeper this week too.
 
San Francisco (2-3; 1-1 away) @ N.Y. Giants (4-2; 2-1 home)
Last Week: The 49ers had a Bye; The Giants beat the Falcons 31-10 in ATL
 
San Francisco
 
Passing- It’s still up in the air as to whether Alex Smith will be ready for Sunday’s game.
Trant Dilfer would get the start in the event of his absence.
Neither looks very attractive based on the Niners offense so far.
The Giants pass defense was lit up in the first 2 weeks of the season but have been outstanding since.
 
Rushing- The Giants have been prone to giving up big days on the ground.
Frank Gore is a good bet to get things going this week, but balance from the passing game would help him a lot.
 
Receiving- Vernon Davis will likely be a game time decision for the Niners this week. Keep an eye on that situation.
There is no one worth getting excited over in this offense, and this is not a good matchup either, stay away from the Niners wide outs.
 
NY Giants
 
Passing- With 2 banged up running backs the Giants will be counting on Eli Manning to carry a lot of the load this week.
As long as he has Plaxico playing, Eli is dangerous.
 
Rushing- Both Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs have been limited this week in practice.
Teams have been able to run well against San Francisco.
Tough to say who will have the better day, even Rueben Droughns has a chance to get some big carries this week.
 
Receiving- Burress and Shockey are not guys that you want to sit if they are playing.
Amani Toomer has some value this week, and Steve Smith might be back this week too.
 
 
Arizona (3-3; 1-2 away) @ Washington (3-2; 2-1 home)
Last Week: The Cardinals lost to the Panthers 25-10 in CAR; The Redskins lost to the Packers 17-14 in GB
 
Arizona
 
Passing- It’s tough to tell if Kurt Warner will be available for the start this week, keep an eye on that.
Tim Rattay could get the start if Warner is unable to go, but Tim Hasselbeck hasn’t been ruled out either.
Kurt Warner may see time back in the role of no huddle QB even if he doesn’t start.
Any of these QBs could have some future value as a pickup in this offense, but they’ll have a tough time against the Redskins defense this week.
 
Rushing- Teams have had a lot more luck running than passing against Washington, but Edgerin James will still have a tough day.
James should still get lots of carries with the QB injury situation.
 
Receiving- This looks like the week that Anquan Boldin comes back, he picked a tough defense to do it against .
Larry Fitzgerald is the only other worthwhile start in the receiving corps this week against Washington.
Both Boldin and Fitzgerald could be in for tough games, stay away from Johnson and Urban in this one.
 
Washington
 
Passing- The Cards pass defense has made some QBs look pretty good this year, including 43 year old Vinny Testaverde last week.
Jason Campbell looks more comfortable every week and had a respectable showing against a tough Green Bay pass defense last week.
This should be an above average week for Campbell.
 
Rushing- Clinton Portis should get back into the end zone this week.
Ladell Betts could pick up a TD but isn’t much value when Portis is healthy.
 
Receiving- Keep an eye on Santana Moss, he looks like he should be back this week, if so get him in.
Chris Cooley is a great value this week, and Randle El should get some good yardage if not a TD.
Keenan McCardell is probably still a reach this week.
 
Tennessee (3-2; 2-1 away) @ Houston (3-3; 2-1 home)
Last Week: The Titans lost to the Bucs 13-10 in TB; The Texans lost to the Jags 37-17 in JAX.
 
Tennessee
 
Passing- Vince Young hasn’t practiced yet this week, but it looks like he might try to go.
Kerry Collins would get the start if Young can’t go.
The Texans have been pretty vulnerable to the pass this season.
 
Rushing- Chris Brown has been limited in practice this week, keep an eye on him.
LenDale White should benefit from Brown’s injury.
The Texans started respectably against the run, but have given up big rushing days in their last 3 games.
 
Receiving- Eric Moulds and Justin Gage seem to emerging in this offense a bit.
Roydell Williams is probably the Titans best option this week.
Brandon Jones should play, but might be slowed a bit due to his Knee injury.
 
Houston
 
Passing- Matt Schaub has been kept out of the end zone for the past 2 games after a hot start.
He’ll face a tough Tennessee defense this week.
The passing game would benefit greatly if Andre Johnson is able to return, but that’s anything but assured.
 
Rushing- Ahman Green has had a tough time getting things going since returning from his injury, things should be tough again this week.
Ron Dayne was disappointing as the starter, no reason to look deeper than Green in this one.
 
Receiving- As I said, Andre Johnson has been upgraded to day to day, get him in if he starts, but he’ll still be in for a tough day.
Andre Davis has emerged as a star in this offense, and will benefit from the return of Johnson.
Jacoby Jones appears to be full speed and should play some this week.
Kevin Walter had a big week and may be worth another look.
Owen Daniels is emerging as one of the more valuable fantasy tight ends.
 
N.Y. Jets (1-5; 0-3 away) @ Cincinnati (1-4; 1-1 home)
Last Week: The Jets lost 16-9 to the Eagles in NY; The Bengals lost to the Chiefs 27-20 in KC
 
NY Jets
 
Passing- Any QB is dangerous against the Bengals secondary this year, but we are talking about Chad Pennington here.
The Kellen Clemens era may be starting soon, but unless Pennington gets injured, the Bengals defense probably won’t do much to get Chad pulled in this one.
 
Rushing- Thomas Jones appeared to break out last week and should keep it going against this defense.
Jones should be itching to get into the end zone and probably will this week.
Leon Washington could get some opportunities in the backfield and is also a big part of the passing offense and returns kicks.
 
Receiving- Laverneus Coles has been limited in practice this week, but should play and is a must start against this defense.
Jehrico Cotchery should have a big week too.
Keep an eye on Chris Baker, he’s been limited in practice but is worth a start if he’s playing.
 
Cincinnati
 
Passing- The Jets defense has been pretty good against the pass but will have a tough time stopping Carson Palmer.
The Bengals defense should force their offense to stay wide open all season long.
 
Rushing- Rudi Johnson is still less than 100% and will probably at least share a lot of the workload this week if he plays at all.
Kenny Watson looks like he’d pick up most of the carries this week if Rudi can’t go or is limited.
The Jets have had a rough time stopping the run this year.
Chris Perry returned to practice this week, and could have some future value given the injury situation so far.
 
Receiving- Chad Johnson is nursing a hamstring injury, but I’d expect him to play.
Houshmandzadeh is having a great season and should continue to benefit from the injuries around him.
Reggie Kelly should play and has good value in this matchup.
Antonio Chatman is probably out for this one, keep an eye on that.
Tab Perry would be the likely beneficiary in his absence.
 
Kansas City (3-3; 1-2 away) @ Oakland (2-3; 1-1 home)
Last Week: The Chiefs beat the Bengals 27-20 in KC; The Raiders lost to the Chargers 28-14 in SD
 
Kansas City
 
Passing- Damon Huard has put up some pretty pedestrian numbers so far, and that should continue this week.
Huard had 264 yds and 2 tds last week against weh Bengals, figure that’s his high water mark, he should be back below that his week.
 
Rushing- Larry Johnson got things going last week, and should keep it going against a weak Raiders run defense this week.
You didn’t draft LJ to keep him on the bench and he appears to be back on track after a slow start.
There’s no reason to waste a roster spot on Preist Holmes, at least not yet.
 
Receiving- Eddie Kennison is out again this week.
Dewayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez are the only viable targets in this offense at least for this week.
Keep an eye on Jeff Webb who had 7 catches last week, but this isn’t a great week to go prospecting with him.
 
Oakland
 
Passing- Dante Culpepper came back to earth a bit last week, and isn’t a horrible start this week, but not someone that you should be rushing to get in there.
Culpepper could find some success running against the Chiefs this week too.
 
Rushing- LaMont Jordan appears healthy enough to play and is a great start against a horrible Chiefs run defense.
Justin Fargas got 10 carries last week and could be a decent pick up for this week, just because of the Chiefs troubles against the run.
I was surprised that Dominic Rhodes didn’t see any time in last week’s game, and should be kept on your bench until he works his way into the offense.
 
Receiving- Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter seems to be the only viable fantasy options in this receiving corps.
The Raiders are going to have a tough time throwing this week, and may not be inclined to pass much if they are able to run like they should be.
Mike Williams is working his way into this offense and may someday soon live up to at least part of his enormous potential.
 
Chicago (2-4; 1-2 away) @ Philadelphia (2-3; 1-1 home)
Last Week: The Bears lost to the Vikings 34-31 in CHI; The Eagles beat the Jets 16-9 in NY.
 
Chicago
 
Passing- Although he hasn’t been setting the world on fire by any means, Brian Griese is putting up some very good fantasy numbers so far.
Expect him to struggle this week against a Philly pass defense that has been great except for a one week let down against the Lions.
 
Rushing- The Eagles run defense has been good too, and Cedric Benson continues to struggle, look for better options this week if you have them.
Adrian Peterson doesn’t look like a threat to steal Benson’s job, but could steal some carries, he’s still not worth a play this week.
 
Receiving- One thing about Griese so far is that he’s been spreading the ball around.
Bernard Berrian, Mushin Muhammad, Devin Hester, Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark are all TD threats with Griese at the helm.
Don’t expect very big numbers from any Bears wide out in this one.
 
Philadelphia
 
Passing- It’s tough to tell what to expect from McNabb so far, and equally tough to know what to expect from the Bears defense.
I’m going to have enough discretion to say that I don’t know what to make of this matchup.
If I had McNabb, I’d start him, mostly because I imagine if I had drafted him it would have been early, and as my starter, So this game wouldn’t scare me off of him, but I wouldn’t go out and grab him in a salary cap league this week either.
 
Rushing- Westbrook appears healthy, get him in there. The Bears defense has been surprisingly weak against the run in it’s last 2 games and 3 of it’s last 4.
Correll Buckhalter was cut back to 4 carries last week with a healthy Westbrook in there.
Keep him on your bench unless you see a blowout in this one.
 
Receiving- I wouldn’t sit Kevin Curtis or Reggie Brown, but might temper my expectations with both.
LJ Smith might be back, but I’d wait another week at least before using him, see how he plays.
I wouldn’t go any deeper than Curtis or Brown in this one.
 
St. Louis (0-6; 0-3 away) @ Seattle (3-3; 2-1 home)
Last Week: The Rams lost to the Ravens 22-3 in BAL; The Seahawks lost to the Saints 28-19 in SEA
 
St. Louis
 
Passing- Marc Bulger is back and the Seahawks defense is reeling a bit.
Bulger owners have probably figured not to expect much this season already, this could be a decent week for him though.
Every receiver on the Rams offense is dealing with some type of injury and the offensive line is a mess.
 
Rushing- Steven Jackson has a slight chance of coming back this week, and the Seahawks have been consistently bad against the run.
Brian Leonard looks like a good start whether Jackson is available or not.
Travis Minor could see some time if Jackson can’t go.
 
Receiving- Tory Holt, Issaac Bruce, Dane Looker, and Drew Bennett have all been limited in practice this week, but all should play.
You have to wonder who Bulger will have his timing on with, if they were all unable to practice full speed.
Randy McMichael might be the safest play in this receiving corps this week.
 
Seattle
 
Passing- Despite Seattle’s problems this season, Hasselbeck has continued to put up respectable fantasy numbers.
The Rams have been pretty good against the pass, but that may be because tams have run on them quite easily.
Seattle will probably run against the Rams quite easily.
 
Rushing- Shaun Alexander appears to be healthy despite speculation otherwise.
This looks like a great match up for Alexander.
 
Receiving- It looks like DJ Hackett could be back this week, and even if he’s not grab him off the waiver wire if someone has let him go. He’ll have a big role in this offense once he gets back.
No Deion Branch again this week, so the Seahawks may have lots of good sleepers in the receiving corps this week.
Nate Burleson, Ben Obamanu and Courtney Taylor all have good sleeper potential this week.
 
Pittsburgh (4-1; 1-1 away) @ Denver (2-3; 1-2 home)
Last Week: The Steelers had a Bye; The Broncos had a Bye.
 
Pittsburgh
 
Passing- Ben Roethlisberger’s numbers have been mediocre at best so far this season.
The Broncos defense seems to be getting worse each week.
With a healthy offense around him, Roethlisberger should be better than usual this week.
 
Rushing- Willie Parker should have a great day against the Broncos, and appears to be healthy.
Najeh Davenport has broken a couple of big plays this season, and could break one against this defense or see lots of minutes if Pittsburgh is able to get up big.
Davenport isn’t a desirable start, but might be a good fill in if you are in a pinch this week.
 
Receiving- Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes should be back this week, but both could be in for long days against Champ Bailey and Dre Bly.
Roethlisberger has used his tight ends a lot so far and will probably feel much better using them than going against those 2 corners this week.
Heath Miller, Matt Spaeth and Jeremy Tuman are all good starts at tight end, probably in that order.
 
Denver
 
Passing- Jay Cutler’s numbers have been in a steady freefall since week one.
He’ll face a stingy Steelers pass defense this week, who should get Troy Polamalu back, and will be without his top receiver Javon Walker for the next few weeks after knee surgery.
Look for better options this week.
On the bright side, if the Steelers get up big, Cutler will have to air it out.
 
Rushing- Travis Henry has been good so far, but took a step back last week.
Maybe because of injuries, maybe the distraction of his pending suspension, maybe a good Chargers defense was responsible.
He’ll have another tough week against the Steelers this week, and may be frozen out of the offense if the Steelers get up big.
 
Receiving- No Javon Walker this week, and no Steven Alexander.
Brandon Marshall is the best start of this receiving corps.
Brandon Stokeley, Daniel Graham and Glenn Martinez may all have decent sleeper potential.
 
Indianapolis (5-0; 2-0 away) @ Jacksonville (4-1; 2-1 home)
Last Week: The Colts had a Bye; The Jags beat the Texans 37-17 in JAX.
 
Indianapolis
 
Passing- If I told you to sit Peyton Manning, would you do it?
The Jags have been tough on defense this year, and Manning will have a long day, but you obviously still won’t find many better options this week.
 
Rushing- Joseph Addai should be back this week, and the Colts have been running very well as a team.
The Jags haven’t let anyone get more than 50 yards since Chris Brown exploded against them in week 1.
 
Receiving- Manning should have the full compliment of receivers this week.
I wouldn’t go deeper than the top three against this defense.
Wayne, Clark and Harrison of he’s playing, if not, I’d just go with Wayne or Clark.
 
Jacksonville
 
Passing- David Garard has been efficient but not productive from a fantasy perspective so far.
The Colts have been surprisingly tough on defense, and it looks like the Jags will have to pass on them to have a chance, but that will be a tall order.
 
Rushing- Neither Jags running back has been particularly good.
The once easy to run on Colts defense is suddenly one of the best run stopping defenses in football.
Both Jags RBs should have a tough time in this one, Jones-Drew is the safer bet to have a big day.
 
Receiving- If your playing the Colts, who have had a week to prepare, you might find yourself down in a hurry. If so, it could be good news for the Jags receivers.
Dennis Northcutt has been the best yardage receiver so far for the Jags.
Reggie Williams has 3 TDs.
No one else is worth reaching for in this offense aside from maybe Mercedes Lewis at tight end.
 

 

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October 18, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

 If you click the links below you can view the cheat sheet right in your browser. It’s much easier to use if you right click the link and save the document, it’s a small word file. If you save it and open it from your computer it’s much easier to navigate using the hyperlinks.

Week 7 Fantasy Cheat Sheet

Printable Fantasy Cheat Sheet Week 7

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

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Fantasy Football Forum

October 13, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

Here is the location of the Pre Game Party its from 1:30-3:00 at Souris in Towson.

And here is this week’s Fantasy Cheatsheet, the hperlinks only work if you right click and use the "Save As" option. It’s a small word file.

 

Week 6 Fantasy Preview

And your Week 6 Pre-Cap:

Week 6 Preview by Match-up

  

Minnesota (1-3; 0-2 away) @ Chicago (2-3; 1-1 home)
Last week: The Vikings were on Bye; The Bears beat the Packers 27-20 in GB
 
Minnesota
 
Passing- The Bears pass defense started the season with 2 respectable showings but has been suspect in their last 3. Tavaris Jackson looks to be back this week, no reason to get excited though, no Minnesota passer has broken 200 yards in a game yet this season.
 
Rushing – The Bears defense looks to be good against the run, only Marion Barber has put up big numbers on them so far. But last week’s game with the Packers has to be a bit alarming. The Pack hasn’t run the ball well all year, yet DeShaun Wynn had Verand Morencey combined for nearly 125 yds and a TD against the Bears.
     Adrian Peterson is the truth, hopefully he did extensive work on picking up the blitz during the bye week; otherwise we’ll see more of Chester Taylor as long as he’s healthy. No reason to go away from Peterson though, and Taylor, while not a great option could be useful for a week or two during byes.
 
Receiving – As I said, no Minnesota QB has thrown for 200 yds in a game yet, additionally the Vikes have 2 TD passes in 4 games so far. Sydney Rice could be decent for a bye week pickup, and Bobby Wade seems to be their top option, but stay away from these guys if at all possible.
 
Chicago
 
Passing – Griese hasn’t gotten things moving yet, and while there’s little reason to be hopeful this week against a good Vikings defense, struggles in the running game should force Chicago to go to the air in this one. Griese’s numbers have been respectable from a fantasy perspective so far; this match up may be better for him than it looks, especially if Benson can’t get going.
 
Rushing – I am a big believer that Cedric Benson will get things going at some point this year. I think he is a great buy low candidate right now, but a terrible start this week against the Vikings run defense, which hasn’t allowed a rushing TD yet, and allowed one rusher so far to go over 50 yds.
 
Receiving – Bernard Berrian has been limited in practice this week, check back for updates on his condition before game time. This would probably be good news for Mushin Muhammad owners, who have been given a bit of hope under Griese. Both Chicago tight ends, Gregg Olsen and Desmond Clark look to be good starts under Griese, and probably very good starts this week.
 
Outright Winner: Minnesota in a close game, too much defense and ground game.
 
 
Miami (0-5; 0-3 away) @ Cleveland (2-3; 2-1 home)
Last Week: The Dolphins lost 22-19 to the Texans in HOU; The Browns lost 34-17 to the Patriots in NE.
 
Miami
 
 
Passing – This is only the second game that I’m looking at, but I might call Cleo Lemon the steal of the week. Every passer looks like Joe Montana against the Browns this year, and Miami will be looking for a spark. For this week at least Lemon could give it to them. I wouldn’t bench a top starter for him, or run out to grab him in a salary cap league, but he’d be a nice steal if you need a QB for this week.
 
Rushing – Ronnie Brown is a must start until further notice, and this might be his best match up yet. The Browns have allowed a 100-yard rusher every week so far.
 
Receiving – Marty Booker and Chris Chambers are probably good starts this week, and while its tempting to try to throw a Justin Peele or David Martin or Ted Ginn into the lineup we are still talking about Cleo Lemon, who is far from a lock.
 
Cleveland
 
Passing – Teams have run all over the Dolphins this year, but the Browns may have to rely on Jason Wright. The Browns have been pretty much wide open all year, they’ll probably continue to air it out, but the Dolphins have done a reasonable job against the pass. That may or may not be due to teams’ ability to run so easily against them.
 
Rushing – Any running back against the Dolphins is in for a good day. It looks like it will be Jason Wright this week. That makes him a great steal this week too. There’s still an outside shot Jamal plays, so keep an eye out, if not Jason Wright is probably a great start.
 
Receiving – Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards are great starts as long as they are playing. Winslow will be scary if he ever gets truly healthy. Not much reason to reach beyond those two, and although there’s no reason to bench Winslow, Edwards or Anderson all should be a little below their averages this week if the Browns are able to run well.
 
Outright Winner – Browns by double digits, but don’t discount the “dead cat bounce” this week for the Dolphins.
 
Washington (3-1; 1-0 away) @ Green Bay (4-1; 2-1 home)
Last Week: The Redskins beat the Lions 34-3 in WAS; The Packers lost to the Bears 27-20 in GB
 
Washington
 
Passing- Jason Campbell threw 2 TDs for the first time this season last week and flirted with 250 yds against a horrible Lions defense. No reason to be excited about him this week against the Packers pass defense. Other than a rough night against Phillip Rivers, who had to open things up against them, the Pack has been shutting down the pass all season. Campbell looks to get Santana Moss back this week, but may or may not have Antoine Randle-El.
 
Rushing – Clinton Portis is back off the injury list and will face a Packers defense that has struggled against the run for most of the season. Ladell Betts isn’t a very good start when Portis is healthy but might steal a TD against the Pack. Portis looks like a very good start this week.
 
Receiving – As I said, Santana Moss is back, but keep an eye on Randle-El’s situation up until game time, he’s battling a hamstring injury. Chris Cooley is a great start at tight end in this conservative passing offense. It’s tough to sit either Cooley or Moss, especially Cooley, but if you have better options use them this week.
 
Green Bay
 
Passing – Brett Favre has been on fire and it’s tough to go away from him, this should be a rough week for him though. The Packers offense in general is banged up, and the Redskins’ defense has been good all year, and they were great last week.
 
Rushing – The Redskins have been easier to run against than to pass so far, but the Packers have been ineffective until last week. This week they look to have all 3 running backs available though, and how they split time is anyone’s guess. Brandon Jackson was out last week, and returned to practice in the middle of this week. It looks like he’ll play, but DeShaun Wynn has been a little more effective and seems to be the healthiest of the Packers RBs, and Verand Morencey has been on the injury list all year but looks like the favorite to carry the load once he’s healthy.
 
Receiving – The Packers receivers have had great success this year, it’s tough to bench any of them, but they’ll be in for a rough day against the Redskins’ secondary. Keep an eye on Greg Jennings (shoulder) and Bubba Franks (knee) up until game time. Donald Driver, and James Jones could both pick up slack in Jennings absence and Donald Lee might be the Pack’s best red zone option this year.
 
Outright Winner: Redskins in a close one. Green Bay, who can pass and not run, might be Washington’s ideal opponent; see Detroit.
 
Cincinnati (1-3; 0-2 away) @ Kansas City (2-3; 1-1 home)
Last Week: The Bengals had a Bye; The Chiefs lost 17-7 to the Jaguars in KC
 
Cincinnati
 
Passing- You’re not going to bench Carson Palmer no matter what I tell you here, and I wouldn’t either. But this will probably be a tough week for Palmer with both Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh banged up and Tab Perry probably out, he’ll face a Chiefs defense that hasn’t allowed a passer to go over 230 yds this year.
 
Rushing- Rudi Johnson probably will play this week, keep an eye on that situation. Kenny Watson could be a great pickup against a defense that has struggled against the run all year. You might want to go out and grab Chris Perry, he won’t be back to practice until next week, but could be valuable if Rudi continues to battle injuries.
 
Receiving – If Johnson and Houshmandzadeh have trouble getting it going, there aren’t a lot of other good options for the Bengals passing game. If Rudi Johnson or Kenny Watson runs against the Chiefs like everyone else has, it won’t likely matter.
 
Kansas City
 
Passing- It’s tough not to want to start any QB against Cincinnati, but Huard is probably the one. He wasn’t impressive when healthy and is now battling a shoulder injury too. It looks like he’ll start, but I wouldn’t get too excited about him even against the Bengals. Plus he doesn’t really have much of a receiving corps to work with either.
 
Rushing- This is Larry Johnson’s break out week; mark it down. If he can’t have a big week against the Bengals, forget about it; time to put him on waivers. I know it’s tough to remember but Johnson got off to an almost equally dismal start last season, he finished up alright. Stick with him.
 
Receiving- Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe are both ok starts. If you’ve been using them up to this point, you should get a little more than you’re used to with them. You still have to be concerned with the health of Huard’s shoulder, or we may even see Brodie Croyle in this one.
 
Outright Winner: Bengals, the Chiefs are a train wreck right now and the Bengals had an extra week to prepare.
 
Philadelphia (1-3; 0-2 away) @ NY Jets (1-4; 1-1 home)
Last Week: The Eagles had a Bye; The Jets lost 35-24 at the Giants
 
Philadelphia
 
Passing- Teams have been able to do whatever they’ve wanted to do against the Jets this year. The question is does Philly want to run or pass. Given Andy Reid’s play calling in the past, and the relative health of the Eagles, McNabb is a good bet for a big week.
 
Rushing- Brian Westbrook looks like he’ll be back this week, and should have a big day even if the Eagles go pass heavy. Get him back in there this week.
 
Receiving- No LJ Smith again this week, everyone else looks available. Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown should both have a good game against the Jets, don’t reach too far beyond that.
 
N.Y. Jets
 
Passing- Aside from Kitna’s big day against the Eagles, they have been otherwise stellar against the pass. Chad Pennington remains hurt, and should struggle again this week, don’t be surprised to see Kellen Clemens in pretty early in this one.
 
Rushing- Thomas Jones has been a major disappointment so far this season, and the Eagles have been very good against the run. If he couldn’t get it going against the Bills or Giants there’s little reason to have much faith this week.
 
Receiving- Coles has been limited in practices this week, but will probably play, keep an eye on his situation. Coles and Cotchery are both decent options, simply because the Jets are likely to find themselves down big and having to open it up. If Clemens gets a shot at some point, both could have decent big play potential too. Brad Smith and Chris Baker are both working their way into this offense, but are probably a reach this week.
 
Outright Winner- Eagles in a pretty one-sided match up.
 
Tennessee (3-1; 2-0 away) @ Tampa Bay (3-2; 2-0 home)
Last Week: The Titans beat the Falcons 20-13 in TEN; The Bucs lost to the Colts 33-14 in IND
 
Tennessee
 
Passing- The Titans have been winning ugly and Vince Young has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game this season. Need I even mention that the Bucs have been very good against the pass so far?
 
Rushing- On the ground is where teams have gotten it done against the Bucs, and coincidentally it’s where the Titans have earned their money this year too. Chris Brown looks like he’ll have the best day, as shifty runners have done the best against Tampa, but LenDale White should be a good start too, and Vince Young could have a good rushing day as well.
 
Receiving- If you’re looking for 60 yards receiving and 50/50 chance that you’ll get a TD, then grab a Tennessee receiver and hope you get the productive one this week. Otherwise avoid all of these guys.
 
Tampa Bay
 
Passing- Everything points to this week being a struggle for Garcia and the Bucs passing game, except that they have little choice but to put the ball in the air. While I wouldn’t jump to get Garcia into the lineup this week, there are certainly worse options out there, and Tampa will probably have to rely more heavily on the passing game this week.
 
Rushing- Ernest Graham will have a tough week against the Titans but will have to get most of the carries. Graham is a good pickup right now, but not a good start this week. No reason to go out and grab Zack Crockett yet either.
 
Receiving- Keep an eye on the Ike Hilliard situation up until game day, he’s still battling a couple of injuries but may play. Joey Galloway is a good start this week, and will have to be the bulk of Tampa’s offense if they’ll compete this week. Michael Clayton and Alex Smith might be worth a flyer, but this is going to be an ugly game for fantasy points.
 
Outright Winner: Titans by double digits, too much to overcome for Tampa in this one.
 
 
Houston (3-2; 1-1 away) @ Jacksonville (3-1; 1-1 home)
Last Week: The Texans beat the Dolphins 22-19 in HOU; The Jags beat the Chiefs 17-7 in KC
 
Houston
 
Passing- The Texans passing game didn’t regress as much as most expected when Andre Johnson was lost, and although Matt Schaub hasn’t put up gaudy numbers he seems to be improving and growing more comfortable each week. He’s in for a tough week against a Jags defense that has been tough on fantasy teams all year.
 
Rushing- Ahman Green should be back to action this week, but you might want to leave him on the bench if you have better options. This Jags defense is a tough draw, and the Texans will probably look to ease him back this week.
 
Receiving- It looks like the Texans will be without Andre Johnson again this week, Andre Davis should continue to be the go to guy in his absence. There’s still not much reason to want to put any of your Texans into the lineup this week.
 
Jacksonville
 
Passing- David Garrard has been very efficient, but far from spectacular so far. He’ll probably be a little better than usual against this defense, but still no reason to be overly excited.
 
Rushing- The Texans can be run against and the Jags will look to do plenty of that. I wouldn’t expect a huge breakout from either of the Jags disappointing running backs this week, but both are pretty good starts. Keep an eye on Fred Taylor though, he was limited in practice this week, and is listed as questionable.
 
Receiving- If you can name more than one Jags receiver, you are in the minority. If you have one or more, you are probably in trouble. Keep the Jags receivers on the bench until further notice.
 
Outright Winner- Jags in an ugly game for fantasy owners.
 
 
St. Louis (0-5; 0-2 away) @ Baltimore (3-2; 2-0 home)
Last Week: The Rams lost 34-31 to the Cardinals at AZ; The Ravens beat the 49ers 9-7 in SF
 
St. Louis
 
Passing- The Rams will look to Gus Frerrotte for a second straight week, and he might not be a bad pick up for this one. The Ravens secondary has been suspect at times this season, and without Steven Jackson again, the Rams will be forced to go to the air in this one.
 
Rushing- As I said above, no Steven Jackson again this week, and while Brian Leonard is a good pick up, there’s no reason to get him into your lineup this week.
 
Receiving- Issaac Bruce is out, so you probably don’t want to start him. Drew Bennett has been a disappointment so far, but could be due for a breakout in Bruce’s absence. Randy McMichael and Tory Holt both look like good starts in this one.
 
Baltimore
 
Passing- The Rams have been pretty good against the pass so far, with the exception of the Cowboys game and Steve McNair is being listed as a game time decision due to a back injury. Kyle Boller would get the start in his absence, but I wouldn’t get too excited about either QB’s prospects and would look for someone who’s definitely going to play.
 
Rushing- Willis McGahee is off to a great start in the Ravens offense, and should continue this week, against a defense that has struggled against the run so far. Look for McNair’s injury to shift more of the workload to McGahee whether he plays or not. This should be the week that McGahee gets into the end zone, maybe more than once.
 
Receiving- The Ravens receiving corps has been beat up all season, add the QB injury to that, and the Rams relative success against the pass and it looks like a long day for Ravens receivers. Todd Heap looks to be back this week, get him back into your lineups but think long and hard about the rest of this group.
 
Outright Winner – Ravens in a low scoring game.
 
 
Carolina (3-2; 3-0 away) @ Arizona (3-2; 2-0 home)
Last Week: The Panthers beat the Saints 16-13 in NO; The Cardinals beat the Rams 34-31 in STL
 
Carolina
 
Passing- The Panthers look like they’ll start David Carr this week, he returned to practice on Friday, but it’s still being listed as a game time decision between Carr and newly acquired Vinny Testaverde. Although neither is ideal this week, the Cardinals pass defense has been scorched in the past few weeks (most notably by Gus Frerrotte last week for 3 TDs and 262 yards). Carr is a decent start in a pinch, as long as he’s playing. Steve Smith and the Cards defense make him dangerous. It’s unlikely Testaverde would be extremely effective since he’s only been in camp for 3 days, I’d imagine the Panthers coaching staff feels the same way. Keep an eye on this situation anyway.
 
Rushing- The Panthers should probably rely on a heavy dose of the run this week Both Foster and Williams will probably be good starts, with the edge going to Foster. After 2 pretty bad weeks, Foster has to be feeling a bit of pressure and should look to take advantage of this match up.
 
Receiving- It’s hard to go away from Steve Smith, even if he is playing with a QB who’s been with the team for 5 days. Otherwise it’s tough to be encouraged with any of the other Panther receivers, at least until the QB situation sorts itself out.
 
Arizona
 
Passing- Brooke Boyle, my boss at USA Home Loans is calling Kurt Warner his lock of the week. I think Warner is a great pickup for the season, but may have a tough go of it this week against a Panthers defense, which has been pretty good against the pass. Leinart was a guy that most drafted because of the weapons around him, and we all know what Kurt Warner is capable of with a high powered offense to run. Also, the Panthers defense did struggle against the Lions passing game, so it’s not out of the question that Warner has a big week.
 
Rushing- The Panthers defense has been stingy against the run, but Edge should still have good numbers this week, 75 yards and a TD sounds about right to me. If Warner is able to jumpstart this offense, James could be looking at lots of running room from here on out.
 
Receiving- Anquan Bolden is probably out again this week, it looks like Bryant Johnson will be available this week, and Jerheme Urban could do big things in the slot. You know how Warner likes to use his slot receivers. As always Larry Fitzgerald is a great start.
 
Outright Winner- Cardinals by a TD with both teams in the 20’s.
 
 
New England (5-0; 2-0 away) @ Dallas (5-0; 2-0 home)
Last Week: The Patriots beat the Browns 34-17 in NE; The Cowboys beat the Bills 25-24 in BUF
 
New England
 
Passing- Do you really need me to tell you to keep Tom Brady in there? Look for him to keep up his record setting pace against a Dallas defense that has been lit up at times this season with the pass.
 
Rushing- Is Sammy Morris the new #1 in New England? He has certainly been the better back so far. Lawrence Maroney is a game time decision, and the Cowboys have been good against the run so far. Stay away from Maroney this week, even if he is playing. Keep Morris in though, he’s their best bet to punch it in from the red zone.
 
Receiving- Watson, Moss and Welker are all good. Keep an eye on Stallworth, and stay away from Washington, both are questionable. Full speed ahead for the Pats’ passing game this week.
 
Dallas
 
Passing- Teams have been much more able to pass than run against the Pats this year, and you’re not going to sit Tony Romo in what could be a shootout. Asante Samuel is questionable this week for the Pats too. Enough said.
 
Rushing- New England has done well against the run so far. Perhaps that’s partly because teams have had to abandon the run after falling behind against them. If you have Marion Barber you’ll want to keep him in there, he could always pick up a TD or two, although probably not a big yardage threat this week. Julius Jones could have some luck in the passing game this week, but isn’t likely to do much on the ground.
 
Receiving- Terrell Owens must be ready to explode after not talking to the media this week. If Asante Samuel is anything less than 100%, Owens probably will. Keep Witten and Crayton in too, the Cowboys are going to have to do some scoring this week.
 
Outright Winner- Patriots in a shootout.
 
Oakland (2-2; 1-1 away) @ San Diego (2-3; 1-1 home)
Last Week: The Raiders had a Bye; The Chargers beat the Broncos 41-3 in DEN
 
Oakland
 
Passing- Daunte Culpepper will get the start this week, and after his 5 TD performance last time out, deserves another look. Against the Chargers this week he’ll see a defense that has been lit up a bit through the air this year. The Raiders haven’t gotten it done through the air since week one, but will face a good match up here, Culpepper is a decent bet to throw a couple of TDs and should be somewhere around 250 yds.
 
Rushing- LaMont Jordan is out this week, and the Raiders get Dominic Rhodes back just in time. Rhodes has been splitting time in practice with Justin Fargas all week though, and the Chargers have been very good against the run. Keep these guys on the bench if you can.
 
Receiving- With the question marks in the running game and the Chargers as an opponent, the Raiders will have to go to the air to get it done this week. With that said, it remains to be seen if they’ll be able to or not. Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry look like good sleepers this week, but don’t reach any further than that.
 
Chargers
 
Passing- Teams have gotten it done both ways against the Raiders this year, so look for San Diego to take what they’re given in this one. Rivers isn’t a horrible start in this game, but there may be better options this week.
 
Rushing- LT looked to break out of his funk two weeks ago, and wasn’t needed very much last week. After the big week that Michael Turner had last week, look for LT to make a statement against a pretty weak Raiders run defense. Not that he is feeling challenged for his job by any means, I just think LT’s pride merits a statement game this week.
 
Receiving- Antonio Gates is pretty much always a good start, you don’t need me to tell you to keep him in this week. Vincent Jackson has a knack for getting going later in the season and is an intriguing start if you don’t have any better options. Don’t reach any further in this one though.
 
Outright Winner- Chargers by 2 TDs.
 
New Orleans (0-4; 0-2 away) @ Seattle (3-2; 2-0 home)
Last Week: The Saints lost 16-13 to the Panthers in NO; The Seahawks lost 21-0 to the Steelers in PIT.
 
New Orleans
 
Passing- There has been no bigger disappointment than Drew Brees for fantasy owners this season. He does still have basically the same offense as last year around him, and should have some good weeks this season. There is however, little reason to believe that things will get any better against a tough Seahawks pass defense this week.
 
Rushing- Teams have done pretty well rushing the ball against Seattle this year, and Reggie Bush should get a lot more opportunities than usual with Deuce McAllister gone for the season. Keep him in, but don’t expect an explosion this week.
 
Receiving- No reason to go beyond Colston or Henderson in this offense until they start scoring, and you might consider looking for better options than those two this week if you have any.
 
Seattle
 
Passing- If Matt Hasselbeck is going to get things moving in a positive direction this season, then this should be the week that he starts. The Saints defense has been almost as bad as the Saints offense thus far, and Hasselbeck has to be feeling a little bit of pressure by now.
 
Rushing- Shaun Alexander continues to be one of the few top fantasy backs to have lived up to his draft standing so far. Alexander is a guy that you can’t sit right now, and against this defense he should have a field day.
 
Receiving- With no Deion Branch this week, and probably no DJ Hackett again, Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson are great steals against the Saints this week as the Seahawks top 2 receivers. Ben Obamanu could be a good pick up in deeper leagues too. Marcus Pollard has been limited in practice, keep an eye on his situation.
 
Outright Winner: Seattle by 10 with the Saints under 20 points.
 
NY Giants (3-2; 1-1 away) @ Atlanta (1-4; 1-1 home)
Last Week: The Giants beat the Jets 35-24 in NY(G); The Falcons lost to the Titans 20-13 in TEN.
 
NY Giants
 
Passing- The Falcons have been pretty good against the pass this year, and Eli Manning’s yardage totals have been surprisingly modest since week 1.As long as Burress and Shockey are in, Manning is a threat to throw TDs, but don’t expect big yardage this week.
 
Rushing- Brandon Jacobs seems to have returned just in time. The Falcons have been fairly easy to run against this year, so things look good for both Giants RBs. Derrick Ward has been limited in practice, but should play. Keep an eye on that situation.
 
Receiving- The Giants haven’t had much to speak of in the passing game aside from Burress and Shockey. If they are able to run the ball this week, as they should be, there is no reason to reach beyond those two.
 
Atlanta
 
Passing- It looks like Joey Harrington will get the start for the Falcons this week, but with the surprising replacement last week, don’t be surprised to see him yanked quickly if he doesn’t play well. Byron Leftwich twisted his ankle in practice this week, and has been limited but should be available. Neither looks to be a good start, mostly due to the fact that we’re not sure how much either will play.
 
Rushing- The Giants have been very good against the run with the exception of week 4 against the Eagles. Atlanta has had a tough time getting it going on the ground and should continue to do so this week. Keep these guys on your bench.
 
Receiving- There should be some good competition between the two QB’s for the Falcons this week, which should lead to decent chances for the Atlanta receivers no matter which QB is in. Alge Crumpler is usually a good start, and is this week, as are Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. The Giants should be able to force the Falcons into a passing game on Monday night.
 
Outright Winner: Giants by 2 TDs.
 
Peace,
T
(thyrl@wnst.net)

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October 09, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

Here is the week 6 cheatsheet, alon with a printable version too. It’s a smaller file this week, so no zip file to upload. It should pop right in your window, and it’s hyperlinked to make it easier to navigate.

It’s a nice, at a glance resource to help with those tough lineup decisions.

Week 6 Fantasy Football Cheatsheet

Printable Version

No show this week, so I’ll have lots more information in the blog in the coming days.

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

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October 07, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

As promised here are my week 5 show notes, and cheatsheet. From a literary standpoint they are kind of rough but there’s good info in there I promise.

Week 5 Game by Game Pre-Cap

Week 5 Fantasy Cheatsheet

Hope this Helps and good luck this week.

Here are my starters for the WNST fantasy league for this week.

QB: Tom Brady & Tony Romo

RB: Ladanian Tomlinson & Ronnie Brown

WR: Terrell Owens & Randy Moss

TE: Ben Watson

K: Nick Folk

Def: Rams

Yes I took the Rams D. It’s week 5 if they are still at $1.1 mil so be it. They scored last week too. I still have $9 mil in the bank but that’s not enough to upgrade the defense and I like everyone else in my lineup.

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

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October 02, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

This week’s edition is sorted by game, and hyperlinked for easier navigation, hopefully it will provide a nice resource when trying to put together this weeks lineup:

Fantasy Football Cheatsheet Week 5

 

Good Luck, and enjoy some baseball this week. I had a great season in Fantasy Baseball too.

 

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

 

 

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September 30, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

Week 4 Fantasy Preview

 

 

Week 4 Fantasy Matchups

 

As always, these are not here for literary value, and are probably ripe with spelling and gramatical errors. What they will do, is provide a couple of at a glance resources to help you make those tough lineup decisions.

Good Luck this week.

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

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September 26, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

 

 Fantasy Football Cheatsheet Week 4

 

Hope this helps, and good luck this week.

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

 

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September 23, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

 

#5 IND @ Hou – The pickings are slim this week.

#4 SD @ GB – Looking for a bounce back for the Chargers and back to Earth a bit for the Pack.

#3 PIT vs. SF – The Steelers defense will be able to focus on Gore and dare Smith to beat them.

#2 CAR @ ATL – Anybody against the Falcons looks pretty good right now.

#1 NE vs. BUF – As I said, the pickings are pretty slim this week. I know you’d like to save the Pats for later in the season, but there won’t be a later if you don’t choose wisely this week.

 

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

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September 23, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

As promised, here are all of the notes from today’s show. Remember that they aren’t so much here for literary value as to provide info. and insight into your lineup.

 

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

Week 3 Fantasy Preview

NFL News / Fantasy Impact

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September 22, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

Thyrl’s Cheatsheet Week 3

 

It’s spaced out kind of long, I wanted to keep one team to a sheet. As the season goes on I will be getting better at this, hopefully, and will try to convert it to a PDF.

Don’t forget to catch the show today at 4. We’ll only be on for 2 hours and then we’ll go to Towson football, so we’ll have to move quickly.

Talk to ya then.

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

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September 22, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

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September 20, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

Week 2 is in the books and I am still leaving some room to raise the bar in the WNST Fantasy Football League. I haven’t been horrible so far but am quite obviously disappointed with my current pace in the standings. Time to change up the way we have been doing things and try a new approach.
 
This week, instead of hunting for bargains first, I am going to go out and get the players that I want at QB, RB and WR, and then fill in the rest. I am also going to take the approach this week of picking against a defense rather than for an offense. Two weeks into the fantasy season and there are a number of defenses that look like fantasy gold if you are able to match up against them.
 
The Saints and Browns are the obvious first teams to jump to my mind. The Browns have allowed 10 passing TDs in just two games and although they haven’t given up a rushing TD yet, both Willie Parker and Rudi Johnson have had 100-yard games against them. The Saints have surrendered 72 points in two games thus far, and everyone seems to get into the act against them.
 
This week I will be looking for running backs first. There are 6 teams that are giving up 150+ rushing yards per game this season; they are Jacksonville, Miami, Buffalo, Cleveland, Cincinnati & Denver. Interestingly though the only team in that group to have surrendered even 3 TDs is Miami. The Giants have given up 4 rushing TDs, Miami, New Orleans & Arizona have all given up 3, there are 6 teams that have given up 2 rushing TDs and 11 each that have given up one or none.
 
The Jags have had the fantasy kiss of death in the first 2 weeks, playing to a combined score of 23-20 in 2 games, and Miami get the Jets and a banged up Thomas Jones. The Pats get the pleasure of playing the Bills and although I like Maroney’s chances this week, he has yet to break 80 yards or get into the end zone this season. I think he may do both this week, but I am hung up on more intriguing match-ups. The Titans look to run all over the Saints, but which running back will be the big gainer for Tennessee? And will Vince Young take all of the TDs himself if the Titans get to the goal line?
 
I’m going to go with Lamont Jordan, who is making the most of the Dominic Rhodes suspension and looks a lot like he did two years ago after an injury riddled 2006. I’ll take him against the Browns, as we said the Browns have allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their first two games, and although neither of those got into the end zone, the Raiders are a safe bet to keep it on the ground with a 3:5 TD:INT ratio in the air. I’ll take Shaun Alexander too, against the Bengals who gave up 216 yards and a long TD to Jamal Lewis last week. I wanted to go with Alexander last week, but wanted to wait and see how he responded to the soft cast. He had 70 yards and a TD and seems poised for a breakout against the hapless Bengals defense in Seattle.
 
There are 6 teams that have given up 5 or more passing TDs this season. The Browns at 10 are head and shoulders “above” the rest, but I am not going to gamble on McCown this week. The Giants have given up 7, and although I am not in love with Jason Campbell against them this week, I will grab Santana Moss here. Dallas has given up 6 passing TDs and I am too scared to take a gamble on Grossman here too. My new philosophy is not serving me well here so far. At this point, the worst pass defenses in football all seem to be matched up against shaky QBs this week.
 
The Bills have only allowed 2 passing TDs this year, but have given up 535 yards passing already, and The Patriots have been pass happy all season, going to Ben Watson often in goal line situations. I’ll take Brady here, and I am going to go with the Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith hookup to round out my QBs and wide receivers.
 
That doesn’t leave much money to round out the lineup so I am back to bargain hunting. Dallas Clark is as safe as any of the $1.1 million TEs, and at this point I can’t afford to spend more than that, so I’ll take him. Nick Folk has been my standby thus far, and I’ll continue to roll with him and the hot Dallas offense.
 
Just a defense left to select and $13.1 million in the bank. Unfortunately, there are no $13.1 million defenses out there. There are lots of $13.2 million defenses that I really like though. So far the Lions have put up 5 sacks and 6 interceptions, and allowed 6 sacks and 5 interceptions, and although the Lions are also $0.1 million out of my reach, I’ll take the Eagles with 5 sacks and 2 interceptions this year, it seems any defense in a Lions game is a good play.
 
So here it is Thyrl’s Thugs Week 3:
QB: Tom Brady vs. BUF
QB: Jake Delhomme @ ATL
RB: Shaun Alexander vs. CIN
RB: Lamont Jordan vs. CLE
WR: Santana Moss vs. NYG
WR: Steve Smith @ ATL
TE: Dallas Clark @ HOU
K: Nick Folk @ CHI
DEF: Eagles vs. DET
 
A new strategy and hopefully a new result. If not, I will go to the most sure fire method that I know of; starting the guys that I am playing against in my other leagues.
 
Peace,
T
(thyrl@wnst.net)

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September 16, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

Keep in mind that this is not a blog entry, it’s my notes from today’s show, so it’s sure to be chocked full of spelling, and gramatical errors as well as typos. If you are able to see past all of that, there’s some pretty good info in there too. Enjoy.

Peace,

T

(thyrl@wnst.net)

 

WEEK 2 MATCHUPS
 
BUFFALO (0-1) @ PITTSBURGH (1-0)
PITT –9.5    37.5
 
Buffalo lost 15-14 to the Broncos, Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 34-7
 
The Bills are mediocre in most splits.
Pit is 21-16 against the spread the last 3 seasons, and 12-4 when the line is 3.5-9.5
The over is 20-8 in the last 3 seasons when Pit is the favorite and 14-1 in their home games, and 4-0 when the # is 35.5-38 pts.
 
Outright : Steelers         Line: Bills +9.5 for no good reason           OVER 37.5
 
Good Plays: All of your Steelers, the Bills gave up 100+ yards rushing to Travis Henry last week, and 300+ passing yards for Cutler. The Steelers offense looked effortless in Cleveland last week, and should enjoy home cooking. Santonio Holmes is quickly becoming a top notch NFL wide receiver. JP Lohsman and Lee Evans should both be good starts in the one, the Bills will have to do some scoring. I don’t expect another 2 catch 5 yard performance from Evans. Marshawn Lynch got 90 yards and 19 carries against a good Denver defense, Pittsburgh will be another tough test for him, but he’ll get his touches.
 
Injuries: Bills- WR Josh Reed thigh contusion sat out a couple of practices this week, probable. Steve Everett, recovering.   Steelers- Ben Roethlisberger, ankle, questionable 9/10.
 
 
CLEVELAND (0-1) @ CINCINNATTI (1-0)
CIN –7.5    41.5
 
Browns lost to the Steelers in Cleveland 34-7, Cincinnatti beat the Ravens in Cinci 27-20
 
Bengals are 7-0 against the line in September last 3 seasons, 11-4 in road games against the line, and 9-1 when the line total is between 37.5-42.
Cleveland is 5-10 as an underdog of 3.5-9.5, and 5-8 vs. division opponents against the line the past 3 seasons.
Both Cinci and Cleveland have been strong under teams for the last 3 years.
 
Outright: Cinci            Line: Cin –7.5             UNDER 41.5
 
Good Plays: Chad Johnson, TJ Housmanzadeh, Rudi Johnson, Carson Palmer, the Steelers made it look easy against the Browns defense last week. Tough to start any Browns with the QB situation looking so bad. If you drafted Kellen Winslow or Braylon Edwards, this is a great week to have them in.
 
Injuries: Cincinnatti- Shayne Graham, day to day hip listed 9/11, looks like he’ll play
Cleveland – no significant injuries.
 
INDIANAPOILS (1-0) @ TENNESSEE (1-0)
INDY –7.5          46.5
 
Colts beat the Saints 41-10 in Indy, Titans beat the Jags 13-10 in Jax.
 
Indy is about 60% or better against the spread in just about every statistical split for the last 3 seasons, but only 15-12 in conference and 5-6 vs division opponents and 14-13 when the total is 42.5-49
Tennessee is 5-1 as a home dog of 3.5-7 pts. 8-4 against a division opponent and 5-3 coming off of a division game all against the line for the last 3 seasons.
The over is 1-6 in September Colts games and 6-0 in Sept Titans games over the past 3 seasons. When the number is 42.5-49 Colts over is 13-15 Titans 5-7.
 
Outright: Colts           Line: Titans +7.5     UNDER 46.5
 
Good Plays: When are Manning, Wayne, Harrison, Addai, or even Dallas Clark not good plays? The Colts defense is renewed but I’d still look for big rushing numbers from the Titans in this one, the question is who will get the yardage, last week Chris Brown had 19 carries fir 175 yards and LenDale White had 18 carries for 66 yards. Neither got intothe end zone as Vince Young had the Titans only TD, rushing or otherwise. It’s anyone’s guess who’ll be catching the ball if and when VY decides to throw it.
 
Injuries: Indy – no significant fantasy injuries         Tennessee – no significant fantasy injuries.
 
HOUSTON (1-0) @ CAROLINA (1-0)
CAROLINA –7.5         39
 
Panthers beat the Rams in St. Louis 27-13; Texans beat the Chiefs 20-3 in Houston.
 
Both of these teams are clunkers against the spread in nearly every applicable split, with the slight edge to Houston. Both teams seem to trend toward the under especially with the line between 3.5-9.5 under is 5-10 when Hou is a dog in that range and 5-11 when Car is a favorite in that range in the past 3 seasons.
 
Outright: Panthers        Line : Texans +7.5            UNDER 39
 
Good Plays: Ahman Green is a great play anytime he is healthy this season, as is Andre Johnson. If you have Johnson, pairing him with Schaub might be worthwhile but until he finds more weapons in the passing game, expect heavy doses of Ahman Green. Steve Smith is always a good start, it looks like the Panthers made the right decision going with DeShaun Foster over DeAngelo Williams, at least for now. It’s hard to know what to make of Drew Carter who had a 10 yd TD and a 9 yd TD last week but finished with just 3 catches for 19 yards. With the Panthers small backs he may get more opportunities in the red zone.
 
Injuries: Neither team has any significant fantasy injuries.
 
 
SAN FRANCISCO (1-0) @ ST. LOUIS (0-1)
ST. LOUIS –3           44
 
Niners beat the Cardinals 20-17; Rams lost to the Panthers 27-13
 
StL is one of the worst cover teams in football over the past 3 seasons. 14-19 overall against the spread, 1-5 when the total is between 42.5-49. 6-11 as a favorite and 8-13 in domes.
San Fran is middle of the road against the spread, but night and day better than St. L
Both are ridiculously strong over teams, but both are below .500 when the # is between 42.5-49.
 
Outright: St. Louis              Line: Niners +3         OVER 44
 
Good Plays: The Rams offense was shut down by the Panthers this week, don’t look for the Niners to be as stout. Jackson and Bulger should both have strong weeks, you also have to be encouraged with Tory Holt, although his production was modest, 73 yds and 1 TD, he looks to be OK after off season knee surgery.
The Niners defense was impressive in shutting down the Arizona passing attack, but Edgerin James had a fantastic day against them. The Niners had a tough time getting things going offensively against the Cards, which is a huge red flag for an offense, but the Rams defense was equally bad in week 1, I wouldn’t go away from Gore or V. Davis this week, but might think hard about any other Niners, including Darrell Jackson who is battling turf toe and had just 36 receiving yards last week.
 
Injuries: San Fran, nothing significant, St. Louis – Drew Bennett, probable, left thigh, will play.
 
 
GREEN BAY (1-0) @ NY GIANTS (0-1)
GIANTS –2.5            38.5
 
Packers beat the Eagles 16-13 in GB; Giants lost to the Cowboys 45-35 in Dallas
 
Neither team has any trends jumping off the sheet, Green Bay is just below .500 in most against the spread splits over the last 3 seasons, and the Giants are marginally above .500 in the splits. But the Giants are badly beaten up right now.
 
Both are very good under teams too, and the splits look to favor the under in this one too.
 
Outright: Packers             Line: Packers +2.5         UNDER 38.5
 
Good Plays: It’s tough to sit Plaxico or Shockey if you have him, but it remains to be seen whether Manning will be healthy enough to get him the ball. Brandon Jacobs is out, and the coaching staff favored Derrick Ward over Reuben Droughns last week. With Droughn off the injury report for this week, it’s anyone’s guess who gets the carries this week.
The Packers didn’t set the world on fire offensively last week, it looks like Brandon Jackson will hold down the RB spot until Verand Morency is well enough to play, but DeShaun Wynn could make a push. Even against the watery Giants D, I’ll leave my Packers on the bench for another week.
 
Injuries: Packers – Greg Jennings, probable, hamstring. Verand Morency, questionable, knee. Giants: Eli Manning, questionable, shoulder, has been throwing in practice, will play if he’s cleared by team physicians. Brandon Jacobs, out, knee.
 
ATLANTA (0-1) @ JACKSONVILLE (0-1)
JACKSONVILLE –10               34.5
 
Falcons lost to the Vikings 24-3; Jags lost to the Titans 13-10
 
The trends in this one slightly favor Jacksonville as they have the edge in most splits.
Aside from the over being 5-1 in Jags games where the total is 35 or less, everything else leans to the under including the over in Falcons games at 1-9 on grass, 1-6 in Sept, and 4-13 on the road.
 
Outright: Jags              Line: Jags –10              UNDER 34.5
 
Good Plays: I love Maurice Jones-Drew this week, especially after Adrian Peterson’s performance against the Falcons last week. Until someone else establishes themselves on offense for either of these teams, I will not go overboard touting anyone.
 
Injuries: Neither team has any significant fantasy injuries.
 
 
NEW ORLEANS (0-1) @ TAMPA BAY (0-1)
NEW ORLEANS –3         41.5
 
New Orleans lost at Indy 41-10; Tampa lost at Seattle 20-6
 
Both teams have been awful against the spread for the past 3 years, and more than the trends, I just think that this number is off, 3 is not enough.
Speaking of lines being off, I think tat 41.5 is too high in this one too, and although New Orleans is typically an above average over team, Tampa is a much better under team, and 41.5 is too high for teams that combined to score 16 points last week.
 
Outright: New Orleans        Line: New Orleans –3             UNDER 41.5
 
Good Plays: Both teams look a bit suspect on defense, look for the Saints to wake up this week, get Brees, Bush, McAllister, Colston, Henderson and even David Patten in there this week. I’d like to jump on Cadillac this week too with the way that Addai ran against the Saints last week, but he is listed as doubtful for this week’s game. It’s still tough to find good offensive options on the Bucs, but you always like to get your guys in there against the Saints.
 
Injuries: TB: Cadillac Williams, ribs, doubtful. Saints – nothing significant
 
MINNESOTA (1-0) @ DETROIT (1-0)
DETROIT –3          42.5
 
Minnesota beat the Falcons 24-3 in Minnesota; Detroit won 36-21 @ Oakland
 
Minnesota is a great cover team, above .500 in most splits, including including 9-3 vs. division opponents and 5-2 in September. Detroit is below .500 against the line in most splits and including 3-9 against their division and 3-5 when favored.
All trends strongly lean toward the under in this one too.
 
Outright: Minnesota         Line: Minnesota +3         UNDER 42.5
 
Good Plays: Adrian Peterson and all of your Lions. The Falcons were able to throw the ball a bit against the Vikes defense, and the Lions have a lot more firepower on offense than the Falcons. The Raiders offense went wide open against the Lions last week, and although I am still passing on Tavaris Jackson and the Minnesota wideouts, Peterson is a strong play this week.
 
Injuries: Minnesota – Chester Taylor, questionable, strained oblique. Lions – Kevin Jones out.
 
DALLAS (1-0) @ MIAMI (0-1)
DALLAS –3.5              40.5
 
Dallas beat the Giants 45-35 in Dallas; Miami lost 16-13 @ Washington in OT.
 
Dallas is as good against the line as Miami is bad.
Dallas is a strong over play too, but Miami trends the other way. The over is 11-3 in Cowboys games where the number is 35.5-42, and 5-1 on the road when the number is 38.5-42.
 
Outright: Cowboys       Line: Cowboys –3.5            OVER 40.5
 
Good Plays: Dallas was wide open last week, and although the Miami defense was respectable against the Skins, I like the Cowboys to keep their foot on the accelerator. The Cowboys defense looked surprisingly suspect last week, and expect Miami to move the ball on them too. I Love Romo and TO in this one and also like Crayton, Julius Jones, Marion Barber, Ronnie Brown, Chris Chambers and Marty Booker.
 
Injuries: Dallas- Terry Glenn, out. Dolphins – nothing significant.
 
SEATTLE (1-0) @ ARIZONA (0-1)
SEATTLE –2.5          42.5
 
Not much to love here trend wise, except that in September seattle is 5-2 against the line while the Cards are 1-6.
These are also both very good over teams, with the over at 13-4 in Seattle road games and 16-6 when the Cards are underdogs in the past 3 seasons.
 
Outright: Seattle              Line: Seattle -2.5           OVER 42.5
 
Good Plays: The Arizona offense had a tough time getting their passing game going last week, and Seattle’s D was lights out, albeit against the Buccaneers. It’s still tough to bench Leinhart, Boldin, or Fitzgerald, and Edgerin James looked renewed against the Niners last week. I like Shaun Alexander a lot this week, and Deion Branch, and of course Hasselback, Nate Burleson or Bobby Engram could be good risks with the absence of DJ Hackett. I am looking for some offense in this one.
 
Injuries: Seattle – DJ Hackett, out indefinitely, high ankle sprain. Maurice Morris, doubtful, hip. Arizona – nothing significant.
 
NY JETS (0-1) @ BALTIMORE (0-1)
BALTIMORE –10               33
 
At first glance, I think 10 pts is a lot, but the Jets are 2-4 as a road dog of 7.5-10, and the Ravens are 5-1 against the line when the number is between 32.5 and 35, and 11-6 at home.
The over/under is up for grabs in this one, the Jets are usually great for the over, and the Ravens are equally dominant on the under. Since the trend says that the Ravens sould cover the 10, I’ll go with the over in this one.
 
Outright: Ravens              Line: Ravens –10         OVER 33
 
Good Starts: The Jets were certainly open to the pass last week, and the Ravens uncharachteristically went pass hapy, I like Demetrius Williams and Mark Clayton in this one despite bith being on the injury report, and I like McGahee too. McNair will be a gametime decision, I’d pass on him this week. The Jets will have to pass if they want to win, so get Coles and Cotchery in too, but if you have another option, you might want to leave Thomas Jones on the bench tomorrow.
 
Injuries: Jets- Pennington, doubtful, ankle. Ravens – McNair, questionable, groin, Mark Clayton questionable, toe, Demetrius Williams, questionable, chest.       
 
OAKLAND (0-1) @ DENVER (1-0)
DENVER –9.5         37.5
 
Oakland lost 36-21 @ home to Detroit, and Denver beat the Bills 15-14 in Buffalo.
 
While Denver isn’t a strong cover team, mostly .500, Oakland is 7-17 vs. the spread against the conference and 1-5 in September.
Over is 1-11 in the division for Oakland and 5-18 as a dog. It’s also 1-6 in September for Denver.
 
Outright: Denver             Line: Denver –9.5          UNDER 37.5
 
Good Plays: Oakland’s offense was wide open last week, and so was Denver’s although they didn’t produce many points. I like the number to stay low in this one, these teams know each other well, there’s no reason to bench Travis Henry or Jay Cutler, but no reason to break out Culpepper or Ronald Curry either.
 
Injuries: Oakland: McCown, doubtful, foot. Denver: Steven Alexander, calf, questionable. Javon Walker, shoulder, probable.
 
KANSAS CITY (0-1) @ CHICAGO (0-1)
CHICAGO -12                34.5
 
Kansas City lost 20-3 @ Houston; Chicago lost 14-3 @ San Diego
 
Both of these teams are great against the line, but the one thing that stands out is while the Bears are a great cover team, they are horrible when the line is double digits, 1-4.
Over looks like a strong trens except for being 0-6 in KC games in Sept, either way I think this line is a little low anyway.
 
Outright: Bears         Line: Chiefs +12            OVER 34.5
 
Good Plays: Tough to get behind any Chiefs at this point, and equally tough to start your guys against the Bears, still I wouldn’t sit Larry Johnson if I had him. Look for Cedric Benson to answer some of his critics this week and Rex Grossman too, Bernard Berrian and Mushin Muhammad are good starts and Tony Gonzalez could feasibly catch some TDs.
 
Injuries: Chiefs: Eddie Kennison, out, hamstring. Bears: No significant injuries.
 
SAN DIEGO (1-0) @ NEW ENGLAND (1-0)
NEW ENGLAND –3             47
 
San Diego won 14-3 @ home against the Bears; New England beat the Jets in NY 38-14.
 
 
Both are incredible cover teams over the past two years too, San Diego 3-0 as a dog of 3.5-9.5, 4-1 in September, 5-2 as a dog, 9-6 on the road, and 3-0 when the total is 45.5-49. Also, while New England’s splits are impressive against the spread, they are not so good when the number is big, 1-4 between 45.5-49 and 5-10 between 42.5-49.
 
Outright: San Diego          Line; San Diego +3        UNDER 47
 
Good Plays: nearly everyone in this game is a good option other than Chargers wideouts.
 
Injuries: Eric Parker, still out, toe. No other significant injuries for either team.
 
WASHINGTON (1-0) @ PHILADELPHIA (0-1)
PHILADELPHIA –7               38.5
 
Washington beat the Dolphins in DC 16-13, and Philly lost @ Green Bay 16-13.
 
Washington is pretty bad against the spread in most splits, except when the total is 35.5-42, when thay are 11-6.Philly is mostly .500 against the spread, but mediocre all around, and 7-9 in the 35.5-29 range.
Over/Under is anybody’s guess Philly is a strong over team, and the under is equally strong with the Skins. Considering they scored a combined 29 and gave up a combined 29 last week, it’s still anybody’s guess.
 
Outright: Philly           Line: Washington +7         UNDER 38.5
 
Good Plays: Not a lot of reason to believe there will be a great deal of offense in this one, still no reason to bench McNabb or Westbrook, or Cooley or Santana Moss, no reason to reach too deep in this game either.
 
Injuries: Philly: Greg Lewis, probable, hip. Washington, nothing significant.
 

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Fantasy Football Forum

September 14, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

Week 2 of the NFL season and its time for me to regroup. Fantasy football is all about the stats, so here are my ugly numbers from week one. On the positive side I am off to a 1-0 start in the WNST staff league, picking up a win over Emily, our resident web expert and blogger. On the negative side, that was the only good thing that happened for me in week one. I left Adrian Peterson on the bench for week one in my 20-team league, opting to go with DeAngelo Williams instead. The keeper league in which I had Frank Gore and Larry Johnson as keepers, that team ran into a buzz saw week one and stumbled out of the gates 0-1 too. Additionally I was just 7-9 picking games without the spread this week and 0-1 in the only game I picked with the line. And only hit on 3 of my top 5 survivor picks for the week, missing on #’s 2 & 5.
 
I’d also like to point out that most of that information, I could have kept to myself and no one would have been any wiser. As I see it, I have set the bar low and left a lot of room to raise it. I am also pretty wrapped up in the finish of a tight fantasy baseball season right now. As for the WNST salary cap league, I took my lumps there too. Actually I made a few good plays, (Saints Defense, Reggie Wayne, Peyton Manning, Nick Folk) but got too heavily invested in the Saints/Colts game, and took Drew Brees, Dallas Clark & David Patten in that one too, even though all of the trends said Colts, under and lots of running.
 
Alas, this is a new week and a chance to start over, especially in salary cap football. So here we go again, $100 million to spend and 9 spots to fill, that’s $11.1 million per player. I have a few players in mind that I am sure cost more than that so I’ll go try and find some bargains first.
 
Searching the kickers, I am surprised to see a number of kickers still at $1.1 million, including Jason Hanson, Shaun Suisham and my new “old buddy”, Nick Folk. I will take Folk again. He hit a 31 yarder on his only attempt last week, and was 6/6 on PATs; the Dallas offense should remain wide open this week in Miami. That leaves me $98.9 million and 8 more spots to fill, that’s $12.86 per player.
 
Next I will look at a defense, I got a steal with a TD from the Saints defense last week, even more than the Nick Folk surprise, I am shocked to see the Rams still at $1.1 million. Last week I called it an oversight, but from the middle of the pack I am willing to take the Rams this week and save the coin for other positions. I doubt I will get anything from them but am happy to have the money to spend on other positions. That leaves $97.8 million with 7 more roster spots, that’s $13.97 per player.
 
When looking at tight ends, bargain hunting isn’t mandatory. You could get Chris Cooley or Alge Crumpler for a relatively inexpensive $4.4 million, or even go hard and take Antonio Gates at $7.7 million. Sneaking Gates into the lineup is like stealing an extra wide receiver each week. I do think that Vernon Davis ($5.5 million) & Tony Gonzalez ($6.6 million) are overpriced, but value is relative. Since I am still looking for bargains I will take Heath Miller. I like his chances at getting into the end zone against the Bills this week; and at $1.1 million who cares if he doesn’t? That leaves me $96.7 million for the 6 spots left on my team, or $16.1 per player.
 
At this point, I feel like I can pretty much get anyone that I’d like. I have $16.1 million per player to spend and wide receivers cost much less than that, so it’s time to go after some players that I have been thinking about for this week. First I will look at the QBs.
 
Ben Roethlisberger had a very efficient passing game last week picking up 4 TDs on just 12 throws, and although Pittsburgh ran the ball 35 times with their top 2 backs, they failed to pick up a rushing TD in the game. This leads me to pat myself on the back over Heath Miller again, since Miller and Roethlisberger will be facing the beaten up Bills defense which surrendered over 300 yards passing to Jay Cutler and the Broncos last week. I’ll take Ben here for $17.6 million and while I am at it I’ll take Tony Romo too. Romo had 345 yards and 4 TDs last week against the Giants, and I like the match-ups that a healthy TO creates against the Dolphins this week. At $17.6 million for Romo too, I have 4 spots to fill and $61.5 million, or $15.375 per player.
 
I was burned by not starting Adrian Peterson in one league last week; but with the week that he had, and Chester Taylor out of the way, things look good for the rookie against the Lions this week. I’ll take Peterson, who is surprisingly only $6.6 million leaving me $54.9 million, or $18.3 million each for the three spots remaining on the roster.
 
I was going to take Shaun Alexander against the Cardinals as my other running back, I like him to have a bounce back season this year. I think Alexander will benefit from the time that he had off last year, and he seems to be off to a good start with 100 yards and a TD last week. I don’t think much of the Cardinals defense either, but they did a pretty good job against Frank Gore last week. I really liked the Falcons to sneak into the playoffs this year as one of the best Ewing Theory teams in recent years, but after what Adrian Peterson did to them last week, and given that Maurice Jones-Drew only got 7 carries last week, I suddenly like Jones-Drew more than Alexander this week. The fact that Fred Taylor averaged only 2.7 yards per carry last week makes me feel better too. So Jones-Drew it is at $12.1 million, leaving me $42.8 million for 2 wide receivers.
 
Obviously at this point I can have my choice of wide receivers. So I’ll take Chad Johnson against the Browns defense which seemed so proficient at allowing passing TDs last week, and the previously mentioned TO against the Dolphins. With Johnson at $13.2 million, and TO at a bargain $9.9 million, I now have a full roster and $19.7 million left in the bank. Time to look for upgrades.
 
The first upgrade that I have in mind is obviously the defense, with $20 million to spend I can take my pick, and I like the Broncos chances with Dre Bly and Champ Bailey, against Josh McCown and the Raiders who put the ball in the air 40 times last week. At $14.3 million I am cringing at the thought of spending this much on a defense, but I still have $6.5 million left for additional upgrades.
 
This is the toughest part of constructing the lineup for me, because if I replace someone they usually play well. Furthermore, having upgraded the defense, I now have my first choices at every position except for Tight End and Kicker. Nick Folk is growing on me, and I like his chances as much as any other kicker this week anyway. I am $.02 million short of the cash it would take to get Antonio Gates, and really believe in Heath Miller this week. I am also not in love with Gates match-up against the Pats this week.
 
So there it is, Thyrl’s Thugs Week 2 Starting Lineup:
QB: Tony Romo vs. MIA
QB: Ben Roethlisberger vs. BUF
RB: Adrian Peterson vs. DET
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew vs. ATL
WR: Terrell Owens vs. MIA (hookup for Romo)
WR: Chad Johnson vs. CLE
TE: Heath Miller vs. BUF (hookup for Roethlisberger)
K: Nick Folk vs. MIA
DEF: Denver Broncos vs. OAK
Back tomorrow with my week two picks, with and without the spreads and the top 5 survivor picks too.
 
Peace,
T

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Fantasy Football Forum

September 05, 2007 | Thyrl Nelson

We are just under 48 hours from the kickoff of the NFL season, and I just finished submitting my inaugural lineup for the WNST Fantasy Football edition of Thyrl’s Thugs. Each week on my show I will give a list of the players that I am excited about for the coming week, as well as those who might be better off left on the bench.
 
This week the NFL is treating us to what looks like a prime time shootout to open things up. I will quickly say that I will give you my weekly game predictions, with and without the line for those of you who play in leagues that require picking every game. I will also throw out my top 5 survivor pool picks each week. Since this week starts with a Thursday night game, I will say that I like the Saints outright in this one, and I love them with the 6.5 that I saw as an early line. I also like the over in this one, when I checked it last it was at 51, I’d still probably like it at 55. As you might be able to guess, I am trying to get as many Saints and Colts into my lineup this week as possible.
 
When it comes to salary cap football budget is everything. I am looking at $100 million, and there are some pretty big salaries out there, especially if I am going to afford Peyton Manning and/or Drew Brees, who will probably be in a shootout this week. With 9 roster spots to fill, that’s $11.1 million per player, and Manning and Brees are both nearly twice that.
 
First I will look at kickers to see if I can find a bargain there. I don’t know how many weeks this will be an option but for this week I already have someone in mind. It’s a good thing too, since kickers seem pretty expensive at $6-$8 million each for starters. With the injury to Martin Gramatica, I believe that Nick Folk will shoulder the kicking responsibilities for the Cowboys for the foreseeable future and at $1.1 million I will take that risk and hope he turns out to be a season long bargain. With $98.9 million still in the bank and only 8 roster spots to fill, I am up to $12.3 million per player.
 
Next I will look to get a defense, I am looking for bargains at the positions that are tougher to predict scoring from, in hopes of being able to spend more at the key positions. On defense I am disappointed to find that there really are no bargains, defenses are all between $11 and $15 million plus. Actually the Rams are listed at $1.1 million, I figure that this is a glitch, I’m looking into it. I am bargain hunting here, not trying to spoil the integrity of the game, so I will take the Saints at $11 million. I am also not clear if special teams touchdowns count for defense too, but that would be a nice boost for the Saints. If not, the ball looks to be in the air a lot on Thursday so I’ll still take the Saints. That leaves the budget at $89.7 million or $12.55 each for the 7 players I have left to pick.
 
Now I am looking for a tight end, and won’t look any further than my old standby, Dallas Clark. I am not sure why this guy is so underrated, but I wouldn’t bet against him scoring a TD on any week that he’s healthy, and at $1.1 million, he’s just the kind of player that I am looking for. That leaves me with $86.6 million and 6 more spots to fill, or $14.46 million per player and I am feeling pretty good about getting either Manning or Brees at this point.
 
With one more bargain in mind, I go to the wide receivers and go right to one of my favorite sleepers this year, and especially this week, David Patten. Although he is listed at #3 on the Saints depth chart, he has been a favorite target of Brees this preseason and has a shot to move past DeVry Henderson on the depth charts at some point. With Henderson still nursing a hamstring injury and the makings of a shootout in Indy, this is a great week to look to Patten and I am thrilled to find him at $1.1 million. Sign him up and I have 5 roster spots to fill, and $85.7 million left, that’s $17.14 per player.
 
I am also surprised to see that wide receivers are relatively cheap, and think that I might be able to afford Reggie Wayne at $12.1 million. I take a quick look to see how much more expensive Marvin Harrison would be and am surprised to find him at $9 million, I’ll take him instead, even though I like Wayne a little better this week. Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison each cost less than the Ravens defense, I find that curious but will take bargains wherever I can get them. I now have 4 spots left on my team and $75.8 million, that’s $18.95 per player.
 
Looking at running backs next, and I am not in love with LT against the Bears. I do like a healthy Brian Westbrook against the Packers, and at $15.4 million he is actually under my budget and gives me something to watch other than the Saints and Colts this week.
 
That leaves me $60.4 million for 3 remaining spots, meaning that I can basically get anyone else that I want. To round out my running backs I like Larry Johnson a lot this week against the Texans, so I’ll grab him for $16.5 million. That leaves me enough to get Drew Brees and Peyton Manning this week. Not only that but I still have $3.2 million left, so I ‘ll take a look at upgrading other positions.
 
I looked to upgrade to the Ravens or Bears defenses, but didn’t have enough for that. Since I got my first choices at RB and QB, and fantastic bargains at K and TE, I look back to the Wayne and Harrison debate and after much deliberation decide to go with Reggie Wayne and bring my salary up to $99 million.
 
I feel great about my lineup this week, and am obviously heavily invested in that Thursday night game. Whether my team does well or not this week, I’ll probably scrap the whole roster and start over next week, that’s the beauty of salary cap football, and weekly prizes.
 
Stay tuned for more fantasy football advice as we lead up to the games on Sunday.
 
Peace,
T

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