How Much Trouble Are the Terps Really in?

February 22, 2008 |

I was going to do a blog breaking down the ACC’s tourney hopefuls, with all the details of who they have left, what are their quality wins, bad losses, all that stuff. When I started it, I figured that Maryland, even with their dud at home to Virginia Tech, would still get in relatively easily. Heck, on Bob’s show Wednesday we talked about their seeding and how they would be a match-up that nobody wanted. Then, after the loss, I started doing some research. What I found out is that the Terps had better get hot real quick or they will be NIT bound.
 
There conference record of 7-5 seems solid, and their win at UNC will certainly help. Is that win counteracted by the home losses to Ohio and American? That’s for the committee to determine. However, the RPI, or at CBS Sportsline’s RPI equivalent has determined that those losses are bad…..real bad.
 
I can’t speak for the accuracy of CBS Sportsline’s RPI but I assume that it is pretty close to the real one. (I just don’t have access to the real one). The numbers look like this for the ACC schools, at least the ones that matter.
 
Duke    3
UNC     4
Clem    24
Mia      34
NCST   64
WF      65
VT       66
MD      77
 
Yikes! The Terps sit right behind Texas-El Paso and Cleveland State. Now I’m not saying that I agree with this. Until yesterday, I thought the Terps were one of the hottest teams in America. The problem is, apparently nobody else did. In last weeks AP and ESPN/USA Today polls, not only were the Terps not ranked, but they didn’t receive any votes. None. You wanna know who did? Stephen F. Austin, Western Kentucky, Kent State, and Cornell.
 
Beating Clemson at home certainly won’t hurt, and since Virginia is the worst team in the conference, I assume that the Turtles will roll through Charlottesville, but if they lose to both Wake and Miami, they are only helping the resumes of teams they are competing with for spots in the dance. Before I looked at the polls, I thought at 9-7 Maryland would cruise into the dance. Now I think they need to be 10-6. I look at it this way. If this is how they’re thought of now, would closing out the regular season 2-2 really boost anyone’s opinion?
 

At Miami, at Wake and home with Clemson. They’d better win at least two.

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