O’s spring training: The 25 who will make it (#3)

February 17, 2010 | Drew Forrester

Welcome to day 3 of “The 25 who will make it”.

I’m cheating a little here, going early on with the “definites”…but at some point you have to profile guys like Matt Wieters (here it is, if you missed it) and Brian Roberts (yesterday’s profile on B-Rob) so why not get them out of the way early, right?

That brings us to Day #3:  Luke Scott

OK, Scott’s not really the slam dunk of Wieters-Roberts ilk, but he WILL be on the team in Baltimore come opening day.  Is he here in August? Hmmm…maybe not.

Odds he’ll be on the roster at the start of the season: 100%

Odds he’ll be on the roster at the end of the season: 70%

Odds he’ll be an effective contributor in 2010: 75%

Odds his name will be mentioned at the trade deadline in late July:  70%

Summary:  Scott’s a decent, professional hitter who is usually in the throes of a 12-for-29 hitting surge or a 4-for-32 hitting slump.  He’s not quite a defensive liability in left field, but he’s no sure thing out there, either.  In all, Luke Scott is a good commodity to have, but certainly not a guy the O’s couldn’t do without if someone came along in late July and needed a semi-powerful left handed hitter for the last two months of the season.  My guess is he winds up being a guy without a position here…and probably won’t serve the team well if 90% of his time is spent in the DH slot.  He needs to play regularly to have a feel for the game – in the field and at the plate – but he’s just not productive enough to warrant 140 games of action in some combination of LF and DH.  While I see a number of O’s on pace to have bigger seasons in ’10 than in ’09, I think Scott’s production will decrease.  With Reimold around all year and Felix Pie scratching out 50 starts in the outfield, there’s not much room left for Luke to play as much as he might otherwise need to be overly-productive.  Look for his numbers to decline in 2010.

Quirky Luke stats:

  • When the O’s won last year, he helped, hitting .331 in 44 victories
  • When the O’s lost in ’09, he didn’t help at all; hit a meager .219 in 84 losses
  • Maybe the team’s best 2-out hitter.  11 HR, 34 RBI, .296 average with 2 outs
  • Not good in the 9th: hit .170 in 54 PA in the 9th inning

Drew’s projections for Scott in 2010:

* .248 average

* 19 HR

* 60 RBI

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