Some final NFL Draft thoughts

April 28, 2011 | John West

1 out of 3 picks in the first round of the draft will be spent on DE or DE/OLB tweeners. 33%!! This is 2 things. One is the league has realized that getting to the QB is a defenses top priority and two is this years draft has a lot of first round talent at that position. It’s pretty much a perfect storm for a run on this position.

Again, I hope the Ravens trade out of the first round. But if they don’t and DE from Ohio State Cameron Heyward is their at 26 I don’t see anyway the Ravens pass on this kid. That would be 3 high picks in the last 2 years spent on the defensive front 7. Last year it was Mount Cody and Sergio Kindle, both in the second round. That shows real commitment on the part of the Ravens organization to keep our defense at a championship level.

I see a run at the QB position which will include several QB’s being drafted higher than they are rated. I think Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert are probably the only 2 QB’s rated with a first round grade. I think as many as 5, possibly 6, QB’s could go in the first round. This trend would lead more toward the Ravens trading down. This would give the Ravens multiple players at 26 that they would have a grade higher than 26 on. It would also force the hand of a team in the top of the 2nd round to feel pressured to move up to get a QB.

I don’t think there will be any Centers, TE’s, ILB, or Safety’s taken in the first round. I think only 1 RB and 1 or 2 Guards will be taken in the first round. (Pouncey from Florida will be taken in the first round and he can play both center and guard). It has been since 1984 that only 1 RB was taken in the first round. Again there are 2 things at play with this. One is there appears to be only 1 or 2 RB’s with a first round grade and two the league has changed. The league has moved away from 1 primary running back and moved to having a multiple running back system. Look at the Packers last year. They lost their starting running back in week 1 last year. They played all year shuttling in multiple 5th, 6th, 7th round draft picks at running back, ran the ball a very low percentage, and won the Super Bowl.

I think watching if any current players get traded will be fascinating, and ever changing. The league is drafting players will no clear rules about how to treat their existing roster. If anyone is telling you that there is no way a player can get traded, they are guessing and they don’t really know. This judge has just bitch slapped the owners, twice. I would not be shocked if 2 teams, say the Raiders and somebody else, push this thing from difficult to understand to just freakin crazy. At least that would be what I want to see happen.

I see the Patriots not trading their 2 first round draft picks. I think they will take the highest rated DE at 17 and probably take RB Mark Ingram at 28. I think the Pats will trade down from 33.