Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections; Plus Pimlico Picks for Saturday

May 03, 2013 | Gary Quill

7th – Gold Mark silks #6Mylute
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Tom Amoss / Rosie Napravnik (1 0-0-0); Best Finish: 9th
Running Style: Mid-Pack
Why he COULD win the Derby: Has been impressive in the A.M. since arriving at Churchill Downs 2 weeks ago; gets leading jockey in the country who was in the irons for his most convincing victory; has improved his speed figure for the past 6 races; 3rd race after layoff angle.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: No female rider has ever won the Derby, best finish is 9th.
Early Betting Odds: 14-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 15-1

8th – Ramsey silks  #15Charming Kitten
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Todd Pletcher / Edgar Prado (10 1-0-1)
Running Style: Mid-Pack
Why he COULD win the Derby: The classic distance will not be a problem; veteran rider is one of the few who have already won a Kentucky Derby; starngers things have happened under the Twin Spires in Lou’vall.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: In 7 career starts has never run on natural dirt; is bred to run on grass; appeared to be laboring at end of workouts over Churchill Downs surface.
Early Betting Odds: 32-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 40-1

9th – Triology silks  #12Itsmyluckyday
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Edward Plesa, Jr. / Elvis Trujillo (1st Derby)
Running Style: Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: Beat 2-year-old Champ in Holy Bull Stakes; Speedy runner has stamina in his bloodlines to go long; owns the two highest Brisnet speed figures among Derby starters.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: if he doesn’t get out of the gate quickly and clear his rivals, his race will be over; may have peaked too soon; clocked woefully slow workouts at Calder in preparation for the Derby.
Early Betting Odds : 11-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 15-1

10th – Pick Six silks  #20Vyjack
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Rudy Rodriguez / Garrett Gomez (9 0-1-0)
Running Style: Tactical Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: Only loss in his 5 race career came in his most recent one (Wood Memorial) as he finish one length behind the winner (Verrazano). After that race it was discovered he had some mucous in his throat. He’s versatile… can be on the lead or towards the back of the pack.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: His jock “jumped ship” to ride #16 (Orb). He’s a gelding. Since Clyde Van Dusen won the Derby in 1929, only two other geldings have won this race (Funny Cide – 2003 and Mine That Bird -2009).
Early Betting Odds : 42-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 15-1

11th – Fipke silks #19Java’s War
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Kenneth McPeek / Julien Leparoux (6 0-0-0), Jocks Best Finish: 5th
Running Style: Deep Closer
Why he COULD win the Derby: 3rd race off layoff angle sets him up to have a huge race; was 2nd to undefeated Verrazano in 3-year-old debut, then won the Blue Grass Stakes on synthetic surface.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: his worst outing came at Churchill Downs; his jock seems to choke in big races (see 2011 Derby favorite Dialed In ride), 0 for 6 in the Derby; due to his running style he’ll have to pass 18 horses to win.
Early Betting Odds : 22-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 15-1

12th – Lets Go silks #14 – Verrazano
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez (13 1-1-0)
Running Style: Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: He’s undefeated, a perfect 4 for 4 and has made each victory look easy. Scary that he’s never been asked for his best stride yet, so we really don’t know how good he can be.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: unraced as a 2 year old (last Derby winner who did not race as a 2 year old was Apollo, in 1882).
Early Betting Odds: 11-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 4-1

13th – JAllen silks #11Lines of Battle
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Aidan O’Brien / Ryan Moore (1st Derby)
Running Style: Tactical Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: Won UAE Derby in Dubai going 1 3/16 miles, the longest race any Derby starter has run to date. Bloodlines suggest he’ll be successful going the classic (1¼ mile) distance.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Only one race in 2013; this will be his first start on natural dirt; shipped from Great Britain to KY on Wednesday, was in 24 hour quarantine, so only got one day to gallop on the track.
Early Betting Odds : 42-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 30-1

14th – Dogwood silks #10Palace Malice
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Todd Pletcher / Mike Smith (19 1-4-1)
Why he COULD win the Derby: son of Curlin seems to be growing and getting better with each race; has never run a bad race (that 7th in the LA Derby was due to being stopped behind a wall of horses at the end of the stretch).
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: gets fifth different jockey in the irons from 7 career races; tends to “hang” when he gets on or near the lead in deep stretch.
Early Betting Odds : 26-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 20-1

15th – Magic City silks #18Frac Daddy
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Kenneth McPeek / Victor Lebron (1st Derby)
Running Style: Tactical Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: loves Churchill Downs (1 win & 1 2nd in 2 starts); suffered an injury (quarter crack) in Holy Bull Stakes (ran 6th) and may have come back too soon when finishing 7th next outing, no worse than 2nd in all other races.3rd race off layoff angle.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Carries 8 more lbs. in Derby than he did in last start (an impressive runner-up finish), all others will carry on average 4 more lbs.; Broke maiden at Churchill Downs. The last Kentucky Derby winner who broke his maiden at Churchill Downs and won the Derby was Brokers Tip in 1933.
Early Betting Odds : 15-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 50-1

16th – Repole silks  #9Overanalyze
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Todd Pletcher / Rafael Bejarano (8 0-0-0), Jocks Best Finish: 4th
Running Style: Mid-Pack
Why he COULD win the Derby: Won Arkansas Derby; another “3rd race off layoff angle” runner; seems to get better the longer the race (one 2 Derby starter with 2 wins at 1 1/8 miles)
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: his jock is regarded among the best in the country but he’ has “never shown-up” for his Derby rides. In 78 year history of the Arkansas Derby, only two winners of that race have also won the Kentucky Derby (Sunny’s Halo – 1983 and Smarty Jones – 2004).
Early Betting Odds : 14-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 15-1

17th – Fipke silks  #13 – Falling Sky
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): John Terranova III / Luis Saez (1st Derby)
Running Style: Early Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: If the few other “Speed” horses don’t break cleanly from the gate and get shuffled back in the pack, leaving him alone on the lead, he’d be able to set softer early fractions and have enough left in the tank for the stretch drive.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: He’s a PA-bred. Smarty Jones (2004) is the only PA-bred ever to win the Derby; will be looking for oxygen at the head of the stretch.
Early Betting Odds : 48-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 50-1

18th – Sunrise silks  #7Giant Finish
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Anthony Dutrow /Jose Espinoza (1st Derby)
Running Style: Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: Jumped on the opportunity to enter the race when there were a few late defections; trainer is one of the most underrated in the industry (it’s his brother Rick that gets all the press).
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Not bred to get the distance; hasn’t beaten let alone run against any of the other Derby starters; only off-the-board finish from 5 starts came on a sloppy track.
Early Betting Odds : 44-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 50-1

19th – Horton silks  #17Will Take Charge
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): D. Wayne Lukas / Jon Court (2 0-0-0), Jocks Best Finish: 11th
Running Style: Tactical Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: Won his previous start; bred to “run forever”; has long strides to cover more ground than his rivals with equal effort .
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Only Derby starter whose longest race to date has been shorter than 1 1/8 mile (1 1/16); has not raced since March 16th (7 weeks!); his 2 worst defeats… one at Churchill Downs and the other on a sloppy track; no Derby winner has ever come from the #17 post.
Early Betting Odds : 30-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Kentucky Derby wagering strategy and selections for Pimlico continued on Page 3

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