Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections; Plus Pimlico Picks for Saturday

May 03, 2013 | Gary Quill

Based on my analysis of the Derby, I’ll put just under $100 into the race and play…

$10 WIN, PLACE, SHOW on #3 (Revolutionary) cost: $30

$2 EXACTA BOX on #2 (Oxbow), #3 (Revolutionary), #4 (Golden Soul), #16 (Orb) cost: $24

$1 TRIFECTA PART-WHEEL #2, #3, #4, #5, #8 with #16 (Orb) in 2nd spot with #2, #3, #4, #5, #8 cost: $20

Recapping selections from Day 18 (Friday, May 3rd) had just 4 winners (3 Top Selections in BOLD type) having $2 WIN pay-offs of… $8.40 (3rd race), $7.80 (6th), $11.80 (7th) and $6.40 (8th).

The BEST BET (17 8-2-1) Lisvername (#1 3-1 PT; 3-1 M/L) was patiently rated along the rail, was lightly steadied in traffic leaving the backstretch, swung very wide in upper stretch, closed resolutely outside foes and was up in time to win by a head, returning $8.40 to WIN, $5.20 to PLACE and $4.40 to SHOW.

The LONGSHOT PICK (17 4-1-1) B ulaga (R6 #1 7-1 PT; 10-1 M/L) saved ground disputing the pace early in the contest then faltered leaving the turn to finish 5th.

Selections for Day 19 at Pimlico Saturday, May 4th card will be posted below.

Special 1st race post is 12:45pm EDT. Track Condition… Dirt: FAST Turf: FIRM

1st race – $5,000 Claiming N1Y for F&M 3 y.o. & up.– 6 furlongs
#1 – Ann Miller (9-2)
#4 – Willow Creek (7-5)
#6 – Joking Femme (12-1)

2nd race – $25,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#1 – Ascendancy  (5-2)
#3 – Light of My LIfe  (2-1)
#5 – Drumlevitch (12-1)

3rd race – $10,000 Claiming for 3 y.o. & up – 5 furlongs on Turf
#4 – Skeleton Crew (8-1) $$$ LONGSHOT SHOT $$$
 #8 – Roman’s Touch (8-1)
#12 – McCarty (12-1)

4th race – $7,500 Starter Allowance for 3 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#2 – Conflicting Report (9-2)
#3 – Ballymoy (12-1)
#1 – Praiseworthy (6-1)

5th race – $25,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. & up – 1 1/16 miles on Turf
#11 – Racing Thoughts (9-2)
#7 – Refiner (8-1)
#8 – Aly’s Gatto  (20-1)

6th race – $7,500 Claiming N2L for 3 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#3 – Morales (8-5)
#1 – A P Asset (4-1)
#6 – Fast Exchange (9-2)

7th race – $25,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. & up – 1 1/16 miles on Turf
#11 – Power Seeker (6-1)
#4 – Fuhr Town (7-2)
#8 – Mixed Blessing  (5-1)

8th race – $10,000 Claiming N2L for 3 y.o. & up – 1 1/16 miles
#5 – Jet Pack (6-1)
#3 – Cattail Creek (8-1)
#2 – Strong Indian (5-2)

9th race – $50,000 Claiming N1Y for F&M 3 y.o. & up – 5 furlongs on Turf
#2 – Ruttzy Tuttzy (8-1) *** BEST BET ***
#4 – Nisteltoe (5-2)
#1 – Boplene (15-1)

10th race – $14,000 Claiming for F&M 3 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#4 – Hard Rock Candy (6-1)
#7 – Miner’s Tune (6-1)
#3 – Blings Rising Star (4-1)

11th race – $25,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. & up – 5 furlong on Turf
#9 – Nightcut (9-2)
#2 – Rainbowappears (2-1)
#8 – Bamboo Harvester (10-1)

Good Luck!

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