Orb Draws Post #16 as 7-2 Morning Line Favorite for Kentucky Derby 139; Thursday Picks at Pimlico

May 01, 2013 | Gary Quill

Post Positions for the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby were drawn Wednesday evening at Churchill Downs. Native Kentuckian and veteran Derby Oddmaker Mike Battaglia set the Moring Line odds and made Florida Derby winner Orb the 7-2 favorite, who will break from post #16 over the undefeated Verrazano (Post #14) the 4-1 second choice among a full field of twenty 3-year-olds.


Drawing courtesy of Mel @dailyracefunies. To see more of Mel’s work, click here.

Among the many hats that I’ve worn, setting the Morning Line odds at any thoroughbred horse racing track in America is not yet one of them, but on my Bucket List. Over the years, many of my friends and blog readers have come to enjoy, look forward to or simply tolerate my yearning to see how close my odds for a particular race come to the actual Morning Line. Battaglia has been working his craft for nearly 40 years whereas I do it for big races and friends and some horse owners who are eager for an opinion on a probable Morning Line or predicted Post Time odds.

PP – HORSE———— JOCKEY / TRAINER—————- M/L— GQPPTO*
1.  Black Onyx            Joe Bravo / Kelly Breen                   50-1          46-1
2.  Oxbow                   Gary Stevens / D. Wayne Lukas      30-1          21-1
3. Revolutionary       Calvin Borel / Todd Pletcher              10-1            6-1
4. Golden Soul          B.Hernandez Jr / Dallas Stewart       50-1          51-1
5. Normandy Invasion  J.Castellano / Chad Brown            12-1           11-1
6. Mylute                  Rosie Napravnik / Tom Amoss           15-1           16-1
7. Giant Finish        Jose Espinoza / Anthony Dutrow          50-1          48-1
8. Goldencents        Kevin Krigger / Doug O’Neill                 5-1             8-1
9. Overanalyze        Rafael Bejarano / Todd Pletcher          15-1          23-1
10. Palace Malice    Mike Smith / Todd Pletcher                  20-1          18-1
11. Lines of Battle   Ryan Moore / Aidan O’Brien                 30-1         31-1
12. Itsmyluckyday  Elvis Trujillo / Eddie Plesa, Jr.               15-1          21-1
13. Falling Sky         Luis Saez / John Terranova                 50-1          53-1
14. Verrazano          John Velazquez / Todd Pletcher            4-1            5-1
15. Charming Kitten Edgar Prado / Todd Pletcher              20-1          44-1
16. Orb                      Joel Rosario / Shug McGaughey        7-2             4-1
17. Will Take Charge  Jon Court / D. Wayne Lukas             20-1          27-1
18. Frac Daddy         Victor Lebron / Ken McPeek               50-1          42-1
19. Java’s War           Julien Laparoux / Ken McPeek          15-1          15-1
20. Vyjack                  Garrett Gomez / Rudy Rodriguez      15-1           19-1
AE Fear the Kitten      Alan Garcia / Michael Maker             —              —

AE – Also Eligible IF any other runner scratches prior to Friday
* – GQ’s Predicted Post Time Odds

Recapping Pimlico’s Sunday 9-race card posted had 5 winners (2 Top Selections in BOLD type) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.40 (1st race), $2.60 (2nd), $11.80 (5th), $4.80 (6th) and $5.00 (8th).

The BEST BET of the Day (15 7-2-1) Classic Wildcat (R4 #5 5-2 PT; 6-1 M/L) started in good shape, but was pulled up nearing the lane then walked onto the van on his own courage.

The LONGSHOT PICK (15 4-1-1) Lil Escape Artist (R8 #5 5-1 PT; 10-1 M/L) ran the race I anticipated, but was only good enough to be second best. She allowed the speed duel to take place, but so did the winner, as both made their move entering the stretch, passing their tiring rivals, but the winner was much the best, but the runner-up returned $5.00 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, $20 on Elkhorn Creek / Sting Boy (R2 #2/2X 1-5 PT; 1-1 M/L) brought out the bridge-jumpers (bettors who wager thousands to SHOW thinking they can make a quick 5% ROI), after the second choice (#6 –Ram) was scratched. As predicted, these two proved to be the best in here as they finished 1-2 well headed of the third place runner, but nearly 90% of the SHOW pool was on the 2/2X entry, returning $2.60 to WIN, $2.10 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.

Selections for the Day 17 Pimlico Sunday, May 2nd card are on Page 2.

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