Preakness Day: Analysis of Preakness 138 and Selections for all 13 races

May 18, 2013 | Gary Quill

Preakness Funnie with Crab
Drawing courtesy of Mel @dailyracefunies. To see more of Mel’s work, click here.

For the fourth consecutive year, Black-Eyed Susan Day at Pimlico, was filled with plenty of sunshine and warm hearts as it was the 4th annual People’s Pink Party, featuring the Lady Legends race which pitted eight retired female jockeys against one another. It was the 4th race on the card, won by Mary Russ-Tortora aboard Haywired, in gate to wire fashion.

What a proud moment for the Maryland Jockey Club (MJC) and everyone who had a hand in pulling it off and making such a generous donation as Pimlico made a donation of $27,507 to the Komen Maryland affiliate, equal to the amount wagered to win on Haywired.

The Preakness Day forecast for the Baltimore-metropolitan area calls for most cloudy skies, with …plenty of sunshine, clear skies and a fast track. There are 13 races on the card. The $1,000,000 Preakness Stakes is the 12th race, with approximate Post Time 6:20pm EDT, with 1st race Post Time 10:45am.

Below I offer my opinions on all 13 races, but I’ll start with the Main Event. Here’s how I see the 138th running of the Preakness Stakes playing out, listed in my predicted order of finish. Odds shown are the current betting odds after Friday’s advanced wagering.

1st – # 1 Orb (4-5) sealed the deal as a legitimate threat to become the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years after outing in his final tune-up over the Belmont Park dirt surface on Monday. It was a work that on paper looked to be too fast (4 furlongs in 47), but according to his exercise rider it felt like they went about 3 seconds slower because he did it so easily. The confidence level in this colt is sky high.

2nd – # 4 Departing (11-1) is just one of three in this field that did not run in the Kentucky Derby. Often “new shooters” are a welcomed new edition as fresh prey, but this one has a legitimate shot at winning as prior to his Illinois Derby (his last race) victory, finished a strong 3rd in the Louisiana Derby, just a few lengths behind Mylute. Thus, he’s an improving colt that still has not yet peaked.

3rd – # 6 Oxbow (14-1) appearance on the track in the mornings of Preakness Week were nothing short of indicating the Derby took nothing out of him. Considering he was responsible for being part of one of the fastest early fraction times recorded for the Kentucky Derby

4th – # 5 Mylute (7-1) will require Rosie Napravnik to wait at least another year to fulfill her Preakness victory dream. Even though it seems that the key the his reversal of form appears to have been the removing of “Blinkers”, his late move in deep stretch might find him to run out of real estate, when he comes flying late in deep stretch.

The remainder of runners are predicted to finish as follows…

5th – # 9 Itsmyluckyday (9-1)
6th – # 7 Will Take Charge (12-1)
7th – # 2 Goldencents (7-1)
8th – # 8 Govenor Charlie (11-1)
9th – # 3 Titletown Five (23-1)

Based on my analysis of the Preakness, I’ll play…

$2 EXACTA BOX on # 1 (Orb), # 4 (Departing), # 5 (Mylute), # 6 (Oxbow)  cost: $24

$1 TRIFECTA PART-WHEEL #1, #5, #6, #9 with #4 (Departing) in 2nd spot with #1, #5, #6, #9  cost: $20

Frankie Lovato’s racing term of the day is #138… “Groom

Selections for the 12 other races on the Preakness Day card at Pimlico are on Page 2