ORB ‘FINE’ AFTER DULL TRY;  ITSMYLUCKYDAY MAKES GRADE

BALTIMORE, 05-19-13 – Back in the 1980’s and ‘90s when trainer D. Wayne Lukas was winning Triple Crown races with astonishing regularity, the catch-phrase “D. Wayne off the plane” followed him from track to track as he made his hit-and-run assaults on racetracks across America with a lineup of assistants that included Todd Pletcher, Mark Hennig, Kiaran McLaughlin and Dallas Stewart.

The glory days of Lukas had seemingly subsided in the new millennium with the passing of wealthy clients like Eugene Klein, W. T. Young and Bob Lewis. In recent years, Lukas had geared down his operation and had become more of a fringe player on racing’s biggest stage.

That all changed Saturday when the 77-year-old Hall of Famer saddled his record-14^th Triple Crown race winner, Oxbow, for the 138^th Preakness for legendary Calumet Farm, which had similarly faded from the forefront of major thoroughbred racing,

It was the first spring classic winner for Lukas since Commendable took the Belmont Stakes in 2000, and the Preakness score by Oxbow ended a drought in the classics for Calumet dating all the way back to Forward Pass’s victory in the 1968 Preakness.

Lukas and his nine-horse contingent, that also included Dixie upsetter Skyring and his personal pony, were on the highway before dawn Sunday morning, heading back to their home base at Churchill Downs. Then it’s on to the Belmont Stakes in three weeks with Oxbow and possibly seventh-place finisher Will Take Charge. Titletown Five, Lukas’ third Preakness entrant who finished last, will run in shorter races for the rest of his 3-year-old campaign.

“I’ve always rode with the horses all my career,” said Lukas, who now has six Preakness winners, one behind Robert Walden for the all-time record in the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown. “I used to go on the airplanes and stand there with them all the time. We don’t fly much anymore.”

He’s “the man on the van” these days, having ridden in a pickup truck for more than 12 hours to Pimlico on Tuesday and scheduled to follow the same routine back home Sunday.

“I’ll get him home at feeding time just about,” Lukas said. “By the time I get him home and give him a bath it’ll be right about 5 o’clock. They put a bucket seat where I ride on kind of an air-ride slide thing. It’s like riding in a boat somewhere on the waves.”

This Preakness was a serious helping of history for the connections of the winner. In addition to Lukas and Calumet, jockey Gary Stevens capped an unlikely comeback at age 50 by winning his third Preakness (Silver Charm and Point Given).

Last year at this time, Stevens was working in Baltimore as a TV analyst for NBC and HRTV. Lukas said all week he was thrilled to have the Hall of Famer aboard Oxbow and was encouraged by his Derby performance.

“He’s so on top of all this stuff,” Lukas said. “He’ll tell you the fractions, who was laying fourth on the backside and everything. He’s very into this, very into this.”

Oxbow, a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Awesome Again, is Lukas’ first Preakness winner since Charismatic in 1999. His other Preakness winners were Timber Country (1995), Tabasco Cat (1994), Tank’s Prospect (1985) and Codex in 1980.

Over those glory days, there was a sometimes not-so-friendly rivalry with colleague Bob Baffert, who saddled Govenor Charlie to a disappointing eighth-place finish Saturday. It was Baffert’s 14^th Preakness starter (five winners), well behind Lukas’ record total of 40.

“Over the years a lot of people thought that Baffert and I had a rivalry, when actually we come from pretty similar backgrounds and we’re pretty good friends,” Lukas said. “It was really significant yesterday when he came down and congratulated me right after the race. A mutual friend of ours said that when his horse didn’t look like he was getting it done at the half-mile pole, Bob and a friend were jumping up and down and saying: ‘Go get ‘em, Lukey.’ “

Lukas said almost immediately after the Preakness that he hoped to try Oxbow in the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes.

“I was trying to be politically correct all week, but I thought (Oxbow) was the toughest horse. I thought if there was some adversity or something went wrong, he had the best chance to overcome,” Lukas said. “Will Take Charge is so big that he has to get a clear run. He can’t check, stop, take a bump or anything. The other horse (Titletown Five) we knew was going to need a career quantum leap forward.”

ORB – Kentucky Derby hero Orb boarded a van bound for New York at 7 o’clock Sunday morning, showing no ill effects from Saturday’s disappointing fourth-place finish in the Preakness.

“He came out of it fine. He’s sound. Physically, everything is fine,” trainer Shug McGaughey said. “We’ll get him up the road and evaluate the situation to see where we’ll go.”

McGaughey didn’t have a concrete explanation for Orb’s surprisingly dull performance as the 3-5 favorite that followed a sharp, dominating 2 ½-length victory two weeks earlier at Churchill Downs.

“The racetrack was probably deep down the inside there. There was a lot of throwback. We couldn’t get to the outside. I thought he was in good position and he took him to the right position, and all of a sudden he had no horse. Why that was, I don’t know,” the Hall of Fame trainer said. “I think it wasn’t our day and it was Oxbow’s day.”

Saturday’s disappointment in the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown only made McGaughey appreciate the Derby victory even more.

“Winning the Derby was my lifelong dream. We won it. I would have loved to win (Saturday) to take it to the next level, so I do appreciate how tough it is,” McGaughey said. “If I have the opportunity again (to compete in the Derby), I may cherish it even more, because I’ve seen how tough it is to get it done. Maybe, I do appreciate how tough it is to win more. As brilliant as we were two weeks ago, we weren’t as brilliant yesterday.”

McGaughey will monitor Stuart Janney III and Phipps Stable’s homebred colt’s training at Belmont Park before deciding his status for the Belmont Stakes (G1) on June 8.

“I want to see him bounce back and see his soundness level and his energy level,” he said. “I think there are a lot of good wins down the road for him.”

ITSMYLUCKYDAY – Trilogy Stable and Laurie Plesa’s Itsmyluckyday looked bright Sunday morning, earning high marks from trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. for the manner in which he exited his second-place finish behind Oxbow in Saturday’s Preakness.

“On a 1-to-10 scale, 10-plus,” Plesa said.

Itsmyluckyday, who had finished 15^th over the sloppy Churchill Downs track in the Kentucky Derby, rebounded with a strong showing at Pimlico. The son of Lawyer Ron, who was forwardly placed in fourth as Oxbow set a comfortable pace along the backstretch, kicked in through the stretch but could get no closer than 1 ¾ lengths of D. Wayne Lukas’ sixth Preakness winner.

“I wouldn’t take anything away from Wayne’s horse, but they went the half in 48-and-change. That’s pretty much walking. Did that help his horse? Absolutely. Did it hurt my horse? Absolutely,” Plesa said. “I won’t say anything other than: ‘I wish the pace would have been quicker.’”

Plesa said Itsmyluckyday’s dismal Derby showing did nothing to undermine his confidence in his colt’s abilities, but he was happy that the Florida-bred got a chance to prove his critics wrong.

“Everybody was throwing him out because he couldn’t get the distance and he ran a lousy race. I hate to use slop as an excuse, but it was a valid excuse. We all knew that,” Plesa said. “Not for us, but for other people, it validates his ability.

That’s not a bad thing. They’re like your children. You don’t like to read something bad about your children. We know what we have. He’s an exceptional horse; there’s no doubt about it.”

A start in the Belmont Stakes is far from a definite for the Gulfstream Park Derby and Holy Bull (G3) winner.

“It’s 50-50 at best,” Plesa said.

Itsmyluckyday, who was scheduled to ship to Monmouth Park Sunday, is a far more definite candidate to run in the Haskell Invitational at the New Jersey track on July 28.

“The Haskell is on my list. God willing, that’s a certainty,” Plesa said.

MYLUTE - Fourteen hours after his colt finished third in the Preakness, trainer Tom Amoss said Sunday that he was even more impressed with the performance than he was Saturday.

“Upon reflection, I think my horse ran the best race of his career,” Amoss said. “The slow pace was impossible for us to overcome and yet he still ran a very good race. I don’t know where the rest of the speed went in yesterday’s Preakness. It looked like there was quite a bit on paper, but it just didn’t materialize.”

Amoss said the son of Midnight Lute owned by GoldMark Farm and Whisper Hill Farm has earned a little bit of time off.

“As far as future plans, nothing is on the board right now,” he said. “I’ll get together with the owners at the beginning of the week and we’ll discuss what to do. He’s had two races close together and I think that’s going to be taken into account when we have that conversation.”

And Amoss saluted the winning trainer and jockey combination of Hall of Famers D. Wayne Lukas and Gary Stevens. Lukas, 77, won his record 14th Triple Crown race and Stevens, 50, earned his third Preakness just a few months after ending a seven-year retirement.

“It was a masterful job,” Amoss said. “As far as Wayne is concerned, you’ve got to tip your hat to him. Over the last year he’s made a remarkable comeback and put himself where he used to be, which is at the top of the trainers’ charts.”

GOLDENCENTS – Trainer Doug O’Neill and his fifth-place Preakness finisher Goldencents will not be going on to Belmont Park for the Belmont Stakes as originally planned. Team O’Neill and the colt departed early Sunday morning to return to Southern California.

“It doesn’t make sense to go on to the Belmont,” O’Neill said. “We had talked prior (to the Preakness) that if we didn’t run huge and came out of it great, we wouldn’t come back in three weeks. Even though I’m very proud of him and the way Kevin (Krigger) rode him, I just don’t think coming back in three weeks off that effort is the right move.”

Last year, O’Neill left Pimlico looking for a sweep to the Triple Crown with I’ll Have Another, who had followed up his Kentucky Derby win with a score in the Preakness. He would never get the opportunity when the son of Flower Alley came down with a leg injury that forced him to be scratched the day before the Belmont Stakes.

Goldencents, a three-time stakes winner going into this year’s Kentucky Derby, was a dismal 17^th at Churchill Downs, but O’Neill believed the sloppy, sealed race track was largely responsible for that. He admitted the son of Into Mischief simply couldn’t keep up with Preakness winner Oxbow after briefly heading him coming out of the gate on Saturday.

“We’ll relax and see what’s in the cards five, six, seven weeks down the road,” O’Neill said. “You’ve got the 3-year-old series on the turf down at Del Mar, so we could possibly try a different surface with him.

“Or we could go over him good, train him out there and then look for races like the Haskell or Travers somewhere down the road. We’ll huddle up with the owners and put together a game plan. He’s a good horse. You’ll be hearing from him.”

DEPARTING - Claiborne Farm and Adele Dilschneider’s War Front gelding was shipped back to Kentucky Sunday morning following his sixth-place finish in the Preakness.

“He’s fine, but he cooled out very tired,” trainer Al Stall said.

Stall said he had not talked with the owners about future plans for Departing, but that he would not be participating in the Belmont Stakes.

GOVENOR CHARLIE - Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert reported Sunday that the eighth-place finisher came out of the race in good shape and was being shipped back to California with stablemate Fiftyshadesofhay, the winner of the Black-Eyed Susan (G2).

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From a fans standpoint, there has been progress on many fronts. Information is one example. Now there are multiple sources from where one can obtain Past Performances (PPs) instead of just one. The PPs provide additional statistics such as jockey win percentages at a specific tracks’ meet and YTD, with a trainer for the current meet and YTD; a trainers’ win percentage with “Shippers”, “3^rd off Layoff”, “1^st time Blinkers” and so on. A horses’ record on a fast dirt track v. off track v. turf v. synthetic surfaces is at your fingertips, unlike yesteryear when one needed the memory of an elephant to recall if Port Conway Lane liked an off track or not. The only hint was seeing an asterisk (“*”),”X” or an X inside a circle, to the right of the horse name, which indicated his/her prowess on an off track. Are you old enough to remember those?

A true speed rating used to require simple addition of the Speed Rating plus Track Variant. Now anyone under the age of 35 thinks Beyer (or Bris) Speed Figures are “bible” and find it impossible to pick winners without them. Same is true with Tomlinson (or Bris) Pedigree numbers. Fractions were measured in 5^th’s, not 100^th’s of a second and unless you were at the track to witness every race ever run, you didn’t have a clue if any of the top 3 finishers of a given race came back to win their next start.

Even with all of this progress, there is a one aspect of thoroughbred horse racing that, until now, had fallen by the wayside, an equine cartoonist. For 53 years (1955-2008) Pierre Bellocq aka “Peb” was the staff cartoonist for the Daily Racing Form. This French-American’s cartoons and caricatures earned him recognition worldwide. As a kid in the 60’s when my Dad would buy “The Form”, I’d look forward to seeing his work on the cover of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes editions. But that ended in December 2008.

Enter Marcy Leonard, aka “Mel”. In my humble opinion, Mel fills the void left when Peb retired. Thanks to social media, Twitter to be specific, I recently discovered Mel which led me to Daily Racing Funnies DOTCOM (www.dailyracingfunnies.com). The website features all of Mel’s equine drawings. From Aqueduct to Woodbine and many tracks in between, her gallery is impressive considering she didn’t draw her first (equine) “Funnie” until 2011.

In an effort to give Mel’s “Funnies” exposure they truly deserve, I offered to use them in my blogs. After trading numerous emails of negotiating (not really) with Mel and her better half Rick, we settled on a “relationship” which is basically an old-fashion, “I’ll scratch your back if you scratch mine” arrangement. Because after all, GQ wants, needs and deserves (tongue in cheek) more exposure too.

It is my hope that you will join me in welcoming Mel into OUR horse racing inner circle and $upport her (and my) passion for this sport we all love, as she expresses it through art for our enjoyment.

My BEST BET of 2013: The Daily Racing Form or Bloodhorse come knocking on Mel’s door with contract in hand, leaving GQ out in the cold. Dooooohhhhhllllll!!!!!!

* Daily Racing Funnies are courtesy of Mel should not to be copied or produced and distributed without Mel’s written consent.

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Many horse racing experts, including myself , throughout Union Rags’ 3 year old campaign had doubts that the he could win at the classic (Derby) distance (1¼ mile and beyond) due to the fact his sire, Dixie Union had never produced an offspring that had won a race beyond 1 1/8 miles. That is, until Saturday in the Belmont Stakes. His loyal supporters pointed to his dam’s side which had the stamina required to get the longer distance. Even though the final running time was painfully slow, the fact remains Union Rags is a G1 winner. He earned a 95 Beyer Speed figure for his effort. As a friend pointed out this morning, Union Rags maybe be the most heralded 3 year old who never earned a triple-digit Beyer.

To see the complete order of finish, chart callers comments on each runner and payouts, click here.

Recapping selections from Saturday, June 9th had 5 winners (3 Top Selections) with $2 WIN pay-offs being $31.80 (1st race), $6.40 (3rd), $3.60 (4th), $4.80 (5th) and $6.00 (7th). Both the BEST BET of the Day (3 2-0-0) went gate to wire as the 2-1 2nd betting choice paying $6.40 4.80 2.40 while the LONGSHOT PICK (3 0-0-1) lost a photo for the runner-up @ 6-1 returning $2.80 to SHOW.

Selections for Sunday afternoon, June 10th at Colonial Downs are below. Selections posted were handicapped based on making multi-race wagers such as DOUBLE’s, Pick-3’s and Pick-4’s using all three (3) listed for each race in each leg. 1st race post is 12:55pm EDT.

1st race – $5,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. & up – 1 mile on Turf
#3 – Book The Crook (8-5)
#4 – In My Crosshairs (9-2)
#5 – Sam’s Point (5-1)

2nd race – $16,000 Maiden Claiming for VA-bred F&M 3 y.o. & up – 5½f on Turf
#4 – Runninglikeanangel (7-5)
#2 – Indeed (7-2)
#8 – Unbridled Grades (15-1)

3rd race – $5,000 Starter Allowance for 3 y.o. & up – 5½ furlongs on Turf
#6 – McNamara (8-5) *** BEST BET ***
#2 – Golden Account (6-1)
#3 – Jake Rattle N Roll (5-1)

4th race – $16,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. & up – 1 3/16 mile on Turf
#1 – Memorys N Dreams (3-1)
#6 – It’s a School NIght (5-2)
#2 – Run Jac Run (7-2)

5th race – $5,000 Claiming N1Y for 3 y.o. & up – 1 mile on Turf
#2 – Heez for Doc (8-1) $$$ LONGSHOT PICK $$$
#7 – First Nite (7-2)
#4 – Hound (4-1)

6th race – $25,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. & up – 5½ furlongs on Turf
#1 – Honour Your Dreams (3-1)
#5 – Negro Primero (15-1)
#4 – John Maples (10-1)

7th race – $45,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. & up – 1 mile on Turf
#1 – Mr. Sneakers (2-1)
#3 – Ninja Warrior (4-1)
#7 – Complete Dyno (12-1)

8th race – $16,000 Starter Allowance for F&M 3 y.o. & up – 5½ furlongs on Turf
#1 – High Cry (7-5)
#2 – Miss Oil (5-1)
#4 – Cobbley’s Breeze (15-1)

9th race – $12,500 Maiden Claiming for F&M 3 y.o. & up – 5½ furlongs on Turf
#5 – Scarred (8-1)
#7 – Uno Mas Tiempo (10-1)
#10 – Sherwood Outlaw (5-1)

Enjoy your Summer evenings following the night races at Colonial Downs and maybe even plan a trip there, it’s a short drive from Virginia Beach.

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UPDATED June 8th 11:49am: After multiple media sources hinted that I’ll Have Another might be scratched from the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, trainer Doug O’Neill confirmed it on the Dan Patrick Show just moments ago. I’ll Have Another suffered a tendon injury to his left hind leg and will be retired. A 1:00pm EDT NYRA Press Conference has been scehduled to make the formal announcement. David Grening of The Daily Racing Form tweeted “O’Neill told me IHA will need 3 months of “doing absolutely nothing”. Said he and (owner J. Paul) Reddam will “huddle up” later in year to talk about future.

If not for the NYRA’s 11th hour rule that all Belmont Stakes starters were required to be stabled in a designated “Stakes Barn” (aka Detention Barn) since noon on Wednesday, the final days leading up to the last leg of the Triple Crown have been quite uneventful. Leave it to a state run association (i.e. NYRA) to throw a wrench into the preparation of the most important event in the sport of thoroughbred horse racing thus far in 2012.

On paper, the Saturday’s 144th running of the Belmont Stakes shapes up to be not that tough a race for I’ll Have Another. The consensus seems to believe there are only two (2) foes (Dullahan and Union Rags) that have a shot at spoiling the end the 34 year Triple Crown Drought. Actually, there are twelve (12) 3 year olds scheduled to break from the starting gate at Belmont on Saturday, for the $1 million 1½ mile classic, Post Time is 6:40pm. NBC-TV will have “live” coverage from 5pm-7pm.

The weather forecast for the New York metropolitan area, location of Belmont Race Course, is for plenty of sunshine, clear skies and a fast track. Here’s how I see the 144th running of the Belmont Stakes playing out, listed in my predicted order of finish. Odds shown are the Morning Line odds. There will be advanced wagering offered on the Belmont Stakes on Friday as well as a Brooklyn Handicap (Friday feature race) / Belmont Stakes Double.

1st – # 9 Paynter (7-1): Bob Baffet is playing tag-team as he has seen enough ofBodemeister losing back-to-back heart breakers in KY Derby and Preakness to I’ll Have Another (IHA). So he brings another Zayat Stables front running style colt, Paynter, here for IHA to try to run down in deep stretch. IMHO, Paynter is the only “new shooter” who has a shot at springing the upset. This field lacks quality early speed, so getting the early lead may be easy and setting a slow pace is certainly a possibility. Add the fact his victory in an early race at Pimlico on Preakness Day earned a higher speed rating than IHA’s amazing Preakness performance (99 v. 96) makes him an attractive option. But can a colt with just four (4) career starts go gate to wire in a G1 1½ mile “Test of Champions”? I’m confident he can. Even though he’s already lost once to IHA by 4¾ lengths in G1 Santa Anita Derby (see video below, he’s #6). Notice how he takes a nose dive coming out of the gate, taking him out of his comfort zone but still fought on gamely throughout this 9 furlong event, just his 2nd career start after breaking his maiden going just 5 ½ furlongs. This one is for “Bode”!

SCRATCHED – # 11 I’ll Have Another: There’s a famous saying, “Don’t show up for the funeral if you didn’t attend the wedding”. In horse racing this means if you passed on a horse that won at very generous odds, then don’t jump on him when he’s the overwhelming betting favorite. As documented in my Derby and Preakness selection blogs, IHA was my second choice in both (behindWent The Day Well). Even after witnessing this magnificent equine specimen several mornings at PImlico during his 14 day stay, I somehow ignored what my eyes had been seeing, and believed he could get beat. Wrong again. Bodemeister didn’t lose. He simply got caught by a colt that proved he has an incredible will to win. With only 3 other Derby starters running in the Belmont, and the lack of a quality among horses entered in their first Triple Crown race, it’s basically IHA’s race to lose, nasal strip-less and all. If he does lose, it will be because he is on the lead entering the stretch, gets complacent and is caught off guard late, without time to get back down to business.

2nd – # 5 Dullahan (9-5): He’s the buzz horse of the Belmont. And why not?! Just look at how much ground he made up in the final 1/8th in the KY Derby to finish 3rd (see video below). His owners convinced trainer Dale Romans to skip the Preakness in order to guarantee having a fresh horse for the Belmont Stakes. So of course he’ll be the 2nd betting choice, but can he spoil the Triple Crown party? Logic says “yes” based on his sparkling workouts leading up to the race which is a carbon copy of how he trained up to the Derby. Unfortunately, his Tomlinson pedigree number for handling the 1½ miles is 3rd lowest among the 12 starters (260), just ahead of Street Life (254) and Union Rags (246). Look for him to tease everyone with a huge move turning for home through mid-stretch, but failing to sustain that bid to the wire.

3rd – # 7 Five Sixteen (18-1): At first glance, the most attractive thing about this one is his jockey, Rosie Napravnik. Arguably the best female rider in the country, Rosie will be in the irons for the first time on this son of Invasor who was no stranger to long distances, winning the 2007 BC Classic over Bernardini. Even though this one took 5 tries to break his maiden and his only race against winners resulted in a 4th place finish by 11¾ lengths after misbehaving in the gate, it was versus older foes, first time w/ blinkers and he earned a triple digit Daily Racing Forn “old school” speed rating – track variant combo. In fact, his 3 best “old school” figures were earned in his only three longest races (all 9 furlongs). His Beyer figures say he’s too slow, but Beyer numbers are “so yesterday” (IMHO). With the upgrade in the saddle, don’t be shocked to see him hit the board.

4th – # 10 Optimizer (23-1): Just when you think it’s safe to toss a D. Wayne Lukas runner in a Triple Crown race, is exactly when he can be the most dangerous. On paper, based on his running lines in his last 3 races (Preakness, KY Derby and AR Derby) there is no way this colt should have even made it to the Entry Box. But the race isn’t run on paper. Savvy handicappers who see a horse who runs evenly in sprints have the ability to improve when stretched out to 1 mile to 1 1/8 miles. Well maybe that’s the angle here. That is, stretching Optimizer out from 8-9 furlongs to 12 furlongs? Yeah, it’s a real stretch in thinking it, but his dam’s sire (A.P. Indy) won this race in 1992. If you need more convincing, take a look at the replay of the Kentucky Derby (again), specifically look for this guy (jock has black silks) who gets steadied at the ¼ pole when he had started to gain ground, recovered and still ran on. In addition, he was “full of run” when finishing 2nd in G2 (Rebel Stakes on March 17th) race, something 8 others in here cannot claim. He’s got plenty of negatives including his lack of run in the Preakness, but ya never know.

5th – # 3 Union Rags (2-1): He was great at age 2, even when losing a photo finish to Hansen (remember him?) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November. His 3 yr old debut was very impressive as he won the G2 Fountain Of Youth seemingly without even trying. Then the proverbial wheels fell off the cart with troubled trips in the G1 FL Derby (3rd as the 1-5 favorite) and G1 KY Derby (7th as 5-1 2nd choice). His jockey (Julien Leparoux) was made the scapegoat. Veteran jockey John Velazquez who is no stranger to Belmont Park takes over. Can Johnny V guide this son of Dixie Union a trouble-free 12 furlongs, allowing him to freely extension his long-striding legs to a victory? No. His sire has yet to produce a runner who has won beyond 9 furlongs (1 1/8 mile), let alone 12. His grandsire (Dixieland Band) finished 14th in the 1983 Belmont Stakes.

6th – # 4 Atigun (34-1): He’s a 3 time winner, but only among high level optional claimers, most recently in the mud at Churchill Downs on Derby Day. But in his two graded stakes tries, he failed to make an impact in the G1 Arkansas Derby, running 5th 11+ lengths behind Bodemeister after finishing 11th to Secret Circle in the G2 Rebel Stakes, both at Oaklawn Park (OP). In spite of what his trainer (Ken McPeek) has said this week about him (“… hitting on all cylinders”), it’s a longshot to think McPeek can pull off another Belmont shocker as he did in 2002 when he saddled 70-1 winner Sarava.

7th – # 1 Street Life (8-1): No stranger to the NY circuit, as his maiden win made it onto YouTube (see video below) thanks to an eye-popping burst of speed displayed in the final 1/8th of a mile. That race and his only other victory came on the Aqueduct Inner Dirt track. Considering he ran 6th when 8-1 in the G1 Wood Memorial, 7 behind Gemologist and Alpha, both who laid huge eggs in the Kentucky Derby, it’s tough to make a case that we’ll see this son of Street Sense steamroll his rivals in the stretch, as the early fractions may be very slow.

8th – # 12 My Adonis (23-1): Owned by George & Lori Hall who got a taste of Belmont Stakes victory last year when Ruler On Ice splashed his way to the Winners’ Circle. An 11th hour decision to enter based on how well the colt has been training, his entry would make more sense if rain was in the forecast because like his stablemate, his best efforts have come on an “off” (i.e. sloppy or muddy) track. In his past two races he’s changed his running style to be on or close to the lead, so his presence may help the late runners. Having perennial top NY rider (Ramon Dominguez) in the irons will attract some attention from the bettors, but in his last start he failed as the 3-10 favorite, finishing 3rd in a 3-way win photo to Pretension who followed that victory up by getting buried in the Preakness (11th by 34½).

9th – # 2 Unstoppable U (14-1): No doubt this one can win going 1½ miles as his dam’s sire (Point Given) won the Belmont in 2001 and his grandsire (Danzig) sired Danzig Connection, who won this race in 1986. The question is with just two lifetime races on his resume’ (both victories), does he have the maturity to get the job done versus the best of his peers. Word has it he’s still a bit green in the morning, so his lack of experience, not ability will be his undoing. At the very least he should help dictate the early pace as in both of his races he’s yet to have seen the rear end of a rival.

10th – # 6 Ravelo’s Boy (36-1): The most experienced racehorse in the field having 13 starts, but hasn’t seen the track in the afternoon since March 10th when he ran 5th in the G2 Tampa Derby. According to his trainer, “He had some problems (after the Tampa Derby)… needed some time off”. Starting April 21st and every 7-8 days since, he’s clocked some bullet works at Calder (So. FL) including a sizzling 1:11.80 for 6 furlongs as his final prep for his return. Asking him to run 1½ miles coming off a 90 day layoff, when 1 1/16 miles is the furthest he had previously run against lesser competition, unsuccessfully at that, is asking way too much.

11th – # 12 Guyanna Star Dweej (23-1): The word “Dweej” is Hindu meaning “twice born” or “reincarnated”. Guyana Star Dweej is named for his trainer’s South American phenom of the 1980’s, Guyana Star who won 52 races in his homeland of Guyana. So far this one has not lived up to his ability in a previous life, taking 8 starts to get his first (and only) victory. He has been the runner-up in 5 of his 9 career outings, but appears to tire after going 1 mile. His start in the Preakness was derailed by a quarter crack and then on May 30th his 5 furlong workout was aborted when exercise rider Eddie Castro pulled him up after 4 furlongs saying afterwards, “He just didn’t want to work”. And he’s going to run 1½ miles on Saturday and be competitive?!

Based on my analysis of the Belmont Stakes, I’ll play…

$10 WIN, PLACE, SHOW on #9 (Paynter) – Cost $30

$1 EXACTA BOX on #5 (Dullahan) #7 (Five Sixteen) #9 (Paynter) #10 (Optimizer) – Cost $12

$1 TRIFECTA PART-WHEEL 7,9,10 w/ 5 (Dullahan) in 2nd spot w/ 3,7,9,10 –
Cost $9

The third leg of the Triple Crown is commonly known as “The Test of Champions” due to the 1½ mile distance. Hopefully we’ll witness some history, so enjoy the excitement thoroughbred horse racing has to offer.

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