Dialed In 4-1 M/L Derby Favorite; Pimlico Thursday Picks

May 04, 2011 | Gary Quill

Post Positions for the 137th Kentucky Derby were drawn at 5:00pm EDT in the Churchill Downs horse racing museum. For those unfamiliar with the process, it’s quite primitive. This task is handled by two representatives who work in the Racing Office at Churchill Downs. One places the 8½” x 11” entry sheets, each having the runners name on it in a thin box about the width and height of a conventional toaster. The other rep has a tray of white marble size balls (referred to as “pills”), each having a number on it from 1 to (in this case) 20, which represents the slot in the starting gate in which the horse will break from and, when there are no “coupled entries”, is the saddlecloth and program number to which the horse is identified.

 

The first step in the process is verifying all entry sheets have been placed in the box. Then verify the correct number of “pills” have been placed on the tray. Next all of the pills are dropped into a small, hard-plastic, vase-shaped “Shaker” whose spout is wide enough to allow one pill in and out at a time. The rep (duh) shakes the pills in it. Now the actual Draw begins. One entry sheet is randomly pulled from the box. The horses name is announced. The rep holding the “Shaker” then turns it upside down, allowing one pill to fall out. He/she then announces the number on the pill. This process is repeated for as many runners are in the race.

 2011 Kentucky Derby logo

 The below chart shows the results of the Derby Post Position Draw along with my predicted odds posted in yesterdays blog and the Morning Line (M/L) odds set by track oddsmaker Mike Battaglia…

 

              PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

GQ odds

M / L odds

   1

Archarcharch

Jon Court

William Fires

8-1

10-1

   2

Brilliant Speed

Joel Rosario

Tom Albertrani

35-1

30-1

   3

Twice the Appeal

Calvin Borel

Jeff Bonde

30-1

20-1

   4

Stay Thirsty

R. Dominguez

Todd Pletcher

40-1

20-1

   5

Decisive Moment

Kerwin Clark

Juan Arias

50-1

30-1

   6

Comma to the Top

Pat Valenzuela

Peter Miller

40-1

30-1

   7

Pants On Fire

Anna Napravnik

Kelly J. Breen

30-1

20-1

   8

Dialed In

Julien Leparoux

Nicholas Zito

4-1

4-1

   9

Derby Kitten

J. Castellano

Michael Maker

50-1

30-1

  10

Twinspired

Mike Smith

Michael J. Maker

40-1

30-1

  11

Master of Hounds

Garrett Gomez

Aidan O’Brien

25-1

30-1

  12

Santiva

S. Bridgmohan

Eddie Kenneally

25-1

30-1

  13

Mucho Macho Man

Rajiv Maragh

Kathy P. Ritvo

15-1

12-1

  14

Shackleford

J.Castanon

Dale Romans

35-1

12-1

  15

Midnight Interlude

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

12-1

10-1

  16

Animal Kingdom

Robby Albarado

H. G. Motion

20-1

30-1

  17

Soldat

Alan Garcia

K. McLaughlin

20-1

12-1

  18

Uncle Mo

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

5-1

9-2

  19

Nehro

Corey Nakatani

S. Asmussen

8-1

6-1

  20

Watch Me Go

Rafael Bejarano

Kath O’Connell

50-1

50-1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Answer to Tuesday’s Derby trivia question… In the 136 year history of the Kentucky Derby, the Post Position that has never yielded a winner is #17 and #19. Good Luck Soldat (#17) and Nehro (#19)!

 

Today’s Derby trivia question… Derby Morning Line favorite Dialed In (4-1) won his career debut race last Fall over the Churchill Downs dirt oval. Who was the last Kentucky Derby winner who broke his maiden at Churchill Downs and in what year did he win the Derby?

 

 

Pimlico facade

 

Recapping, 18 (Sunday, May 1st) at the Pimlico Spring Meet…

 

Best Bet Bait And Switch (#7 6th race; M/L 3-1; P/T 5-2) sprinted clear of the field but took pressure from one rival at the quarter pole, held him off but not the winner who came from the clouds, settling for second returning $3.80 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW..

Best Bet pick scorecard from 18 selections at the Pimlico Meet: 5 WIN – 3 PLACE – 5 SHOW.

 
Longshot Musictotheears (#6 8th race M/L 6-1; P/T 4-1) was challenged a bit before sprinting clear of the field and appeared to have the race well in hand extending at her lead to 3 lengths entering the stretch, but could not hold off the Post Time favorite, surrounding a few strides before the wire, settling for second by a ½ length paying $4.00 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW.

Longshot pick scorecard from 18 selections at the Pimlico Meet: 3 WIN – 5 PLACE – 1 SHOW. 

 

Here’s how the WDYL (Who Do Ya Like?) Plays panned out…

 

1st race ($1 DD):  6, 7 w/ 3, 6 ($4)… WINNER: 6-6  $1 DD paid $23.20

3rd race: #8 – Northsight (5-1) … PLACED paid $5.20 $3.60

5th race: #6 – Motown Hustle (10-1)… 6th; shuffled back at atart, mid-late interest

7th race: #2 – Miss Hard Ten (7-1)… 4th; bobbled at start then rushed to lead & faded

8th race: #3 – Indian Rodeo (4-1) … SCRATCHED

 9th race ($1 DD): 1, 5, 7 w/ 4, 6…  came 9-6

 

 

For the Pimlico Spring Meet, Day 19 (Thursday, May 5th) … 

 

Soup of the Day: Potato & Ham 

 

Best Bet: Chasing The Money (#7 8th race; M/L 5-2) was claimed at Farigrounds for $15k in his 5th career start has a maiden when running second. Top PARX based trainer invades Old Hilltop looking for the score going long (1 1/16) against a field that includes 3 first time starters, one of which could surprise.        

 

Longshot: County Gold (#11 5th race on the turf; M/L 8-1) was kept busy this winter sprinting (4½ f.) at  Charlestown, then put on the shelf for 60 days until today. She returns to the turf where she can compete at a much higher level. She always flies out of the gate and in this 5 furlong sprint there aren’t any others who will press her to go too fast early, leaving enough in the tank to outlast this full field. Odds of 8-1 seem a little generous. We’ll see.     

Other “Who Do Ya Like” (WDYL) Plays…   

 

 

 

1st race ($1 DD):  2, 5, 10 w/ 1, 4 ($6)

2nd race (.50 Pick3): 1, 4 w/ 3, 11, 12 w/ 1, 2, 4 ($9)

3rd race: # 3 – If It Itches (8-1) toss dirt debut, she’s bred for turf

4th race: # 4 – Sir Duncan (2-1) easily as lone speed IF he is right

5th race ($.50 Tri): 5, 6, 8, 9, 11 w/ 12 w/ 5, 6, 8, 9, 11 ($10)

7th race: # 3 – Seemybeauty (6-1) has bloodlines to win in 1st turf try

9th race ($1 DD): 2, 5, 7 w/ 1, 2, 8, 10 ($12)

 

 

Enjoy a great day of thoroughbred horse racing. Share the fun with a friend.

 

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