Final Derby Works & Predicted Morning Line Odds

May 02, 2011 | Gary Quill

On Wednesday afternoon the Post Position Draw for the 137th Kentucky Derby will take place at Churchill Downs. Native Kentuckian and veteran Derby Oddsmaker Mike Battaglia will announce the Moring Line odds that he sets shortly after the Post Positions for all 20 runners have been determined.

 

Among the many hats that I’ve worn, setting the Morning Line odds at any thoroughbred horse racing track in America is not yet one of them, but on my Bucket List. Over the years, many of my friends and blog readers have come to enjoy, look forward to or simply tolerate my yearning to see how close my odds for a particular race come to the actual Morning Line. Battaglia has been working his craft for nearly 40 years whereas I do it for the big races, for friends and some horse owners who are eager for an opinion on a probable Morning Line.

 2011 KY Derby logo

The most challenging Morning Line Odds to set are for the Kentucky Derby because there is no other race in North America that starts 20 runners. For what its worth, below is my predicted Morning Line.   

 

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

*GQ odds

Animal Kingdom

Robby Albarado

H. Graham Motion

20-1

Archarcharch

Jon Court

William H. Fires

8-1

Brilliant Speed

Joel Rosario

Thomas Albertrani

35-1

Comma to the Top

Patrick Valenzuela

Peter Miller

40-1

Decisive Moment

Kerwin Clark

Juan D. Arias

50-1

Dialed In

Julien Leparoux

Nicholas P. Zito

4-1

Master of Hounds

Garrett Gomez

Aidan P. O’Brien

25-1

Midnight Interlude

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

12-1

Mucho Macho Man

Rajiv Maragh

Kathy P. Ritvo

15-1

Nehro

Corey Nakatani

Steven M. Asmussen

8-1

Pants On Fire

Anna Napravnik

Kelly J. Breen

30-1

Santiva

Shaun Bridgmohan

Eddie Kenneally

25-1

Shackleford

Jesus Castanon

Dale Romans

35-1

Soldat

Alan Garcia

Kiaran P. McLaughlin

20-1

Stay Thirsty

Ramon Dominguez

Todd A. Pletcher

40-1

+ Derby Kitten 

undecided

Michael J. Maker

 

50-1

Twice the Appeal

Calvin Borel

Jeff Bonde

30-1

Twinspired

Mike Smith

Michael J. Maker

50-1

Uncle Mo

John Velazquez

Todd A. Pletcher

5-1

Watch Me Go

Rafael Bejarano

Kathleen O’Connell

50-1

* – Whoever draws Post Position #1 could see their odds bumped up a few points. 

+ - gets in field due to Toby’s Corner being declared out of Derby due to injury. 

 

Monday morning marked to final serious workouts for any Derby starter. As for the remainder of the week, each will simply visit the track for a light jog around the track to stretch their legs and keep fit.  

 

Derby workouts on Sunday morning…

                Comma To The Top Hol   5f   fst   breezing      1:00.40

                Pants On Fire           CD    4f   sy   breezing        :47.96

                Stay Thirsty              CD    5f   sy   breezing      1:01.48

                Toby’s Corner          Fai    6f   fst   breezing      1:15.00

                Uncle Mo                  CD    5f   sy   breezing      1:01.28

  

 

Derby workouts on Monday morning…

                Brilliant Speed             CD   6f   sy   breezing      1:00.98

                Midnight Interlude      CD   6f   sy   breezing      1:00.46

                Nehro                             CD   4f   sy   breezing        :50.72

                Santiva                          CD   4f   sy   breezing        :49.99

                Watch Me Go               CD   5f   sy   breezing      1:02.00

 

Answer to Sunday’s Derby trivia question… Derby starters Santiva, Stay Thirsty, Soldat, and Watch Me Go turned in disappointing efforts in their final Derby prep races, finishing 9th, 7th, 5th and 6th, respectively. The last Kentucky Derby winner to have finished worse than fourth in his last race prior to the Derby was… Iron Liege who ran 5th in the Derby Trial before winning the Kentucky Derby in 1957.

 

Today’s Derby trivia question… To date, in the previous 136 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, what Post Position has never yielded a winner?

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