Final Derby Works & Predicted Morning Line Odds

On Wednesday afternoon the Post Position Draw for the 137^th Kentucky Derby will take place at Churchill Downs. Native Kentuckian and veteran Derby Oddsmaker Mike Battaglia will announce the Moring Line odds that he sets shortly after the Post Positions for all 20 runners have been determined.

Among the many hats that I’ve worn, setting the Morning Line odds at any thoroughbred horse racing track in America is not yet one of them, but on my Bucket List. Over the years, many of my friends and blog readers have come to enjoy, look forward to or simply tolerate my yearning to see how close my odds for a particular race come to the actual Morning Line. Battaglia has been working his craft for nearly 40 years whereas I do it for the big races, for friends and some horse owners who are eager for an opinion on a probable Morning Line.

The most challenging Morning Line Odds to set are for the Kentucky Derby because there is no other race in North America that starts 20 runners. For what its worth, below is my predicted Morning Line.   

* – Whoever draws Post Position #1 could see their odds bumped up a few points. 

+ - gets in field due to Toby’s Corner being declared out of Derby due to injury. 

Monday morning marked to final serious workouts for any Derby starter. As for the remainder of the week, each will simply visit the track for a light jog around the track to stretch their legs and keep fit.  

Derby workouts on Sunday morning…

                Comma To The Top Hol   5f   fst   breezing      1:00.40

                Pants On Fire           CD    4f   sy   breezing        :47.96

                Stay Thirsty              CD    5f   sy   breezing      1:01.48

                Toby’s Corner          Fai    6f   fst   breezing      1:15.00

                Uncle Mo                  CD    5f   sy   breezing      1:01.28

Derby workouts on Monday morning…

                Brilliant Speed             CD   6f   sy   breezing      1:00.98

                Midnight Interlude      CD   6f   sy   breezing      1:00.46

                Nehro                             CD   4f   sy   breezing        :50.72

                Santiva                          CD   4f   sy   breezing        :49.99

                Watch Me Go               CD   5f   sy   breezing      1:02.00

Answer to Sunday’s Derby trivia question… Derby starters Santiva, Stay Thirsty, Soldat, and Watch Me Go turned in disappointing efforts in their final Derby prep races, finishing 9^th, 7^th, 5^th and 6^th, respectively. The last Kentucky Derby winner to have finished worse than fourth in his last race prior to the Derby was… Iron Liege who ran 5^th in the Derby Trial before winning the Kentucky Derby in 1957.

Today’s Derby trivia question… To date, in the previous 136 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, what Post Position has never yielded a winner?