To the very small audience of horse racing fans, if you missed last week’s blog, you missed the potential of catching a $17 winner (Ron The Greek), $74 Exacta and $729 Trifecta in the LeComte Stakes at Fairgrounds on Saturday, January 23rd.
If you watch the race (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NS9vhc2yvyk), you will never believe that Ron The Greek (#11) has a snowballs chance in hell to win this race. Coming into the stretch he’s in 9th position on the outside, 15 lengths behind the leader.
This is not to say that this blog will produce these types of results every time (afterall my pick in the Holy Bull Stakes finished 4th), but it may be worth your while to at least consider my opinion after you have performed your own handicapping of a given race.
This week features a pretty lame Derby prep race… the $50,000 WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park in Florence, KY. Looking at this field of 12 gives one the opinion that you most likely will not see any of these runners in the 136th Kentucky Derby on May 1st but as any handicapper will tell you, any race provides you an avenue for action.
The WEBN Stakes is contested at one mile over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park, which is actually a stones throw from Cincinnati, OH. Horses bred to run on the turf tend to run well on the synthetic ovals. The Morning Line (M/L) 5-2 favorite is #4 Fish (Phillip Sims trained; ridden by Rex Stokes III) who was runner-up in the Prevue Stakes at Turfway on Jan. 2nd going 6½ furlongs. He’ll face 11 foes, 6 of which will be taking on winners for the first time after scoring their maiden victory in their most recent start.
The favorite will be stretching out to a distance 1½ furlongs further than any of his previous 5 starts and his front-running style will be matched by at least 4 others, making it tough on him. Therefore, the race should setup for a stretch-runner which could result in nice payoffs. #1 – Patti’s Kitten (10-1) is being overlooked by the track oddsmaker as his stablemate #7 – Kera’s Kitten (4-1) whose jockey John McKee has opted to ride Patti’s Kitten for trainer Michael Makers duo. #2 – In The Paint (8-1) is bred best for this distance and surface, and impressively broke his maiden on Dec. 26th at Turfway. #3 – Pathoki (12-1) has been in the money in his last 2, both at CD and finished a troubled-trip 4th by 3 lengths in his only synthetic surface race, a $25k claiming event. #4- Proud Of Midway (15-1) has never been off the board in 5 lifetime starts at Charlestown, coming in on a 3 race win streak, 2 in upper level Allowance company and all on an off-track, but turned in a 3 furlong bullet workout at Turfway on Thursday. #10 – Big Bruin (12-1) started 2010 of with a maiden victory here going 6½ furlongs after 2 tries at Hawthorne. Finally, #11 – Slewzoom (15-1) is an Illinois bred shipping in from the Land of Lincoln, along with Hawthorne based jockey Tanner Riggs, but his synthetic oval starts were limited to 4½ furlong sprints while a maiden at Arlington Park.
OK, so big deal. I’ve only eliminated 6 of the 12 runners, but 3 of them are the favorite (Fish) and Programs co-second choices, #7 – Kera’s Kitten (4-1) and #8 – Lucky Chuck (4-1), all who are candidates to wilt in the final furlong.
From the handicapping school of Go Big Or Go Home, take #4 Proud Of Midway (15-1) across the board and on top in your exotics with #1 – Patti’s Kitten (10-1), #2 In The Paint (8-1) and #10 Big Bruin (12-1). If you play it and it hits, you’ll need 2 forms of ID to cash it because Uncle Sam will want his piece of the pie.
Enjoy a great day of thoroughbred horse racing. Share the fun with a friend.