Hoping 138th Running of the Kentucky Derby Goes “Well”

May 04, 2012 | Gary Quill

Hoping 138th Running of the Kentucky Derby Goes “Well”

GQ’s predicted order of finish for Derby 138 continued, positions 11th through 20th (last)…

11th – #10Michael Tabor silks Daddy Nose Best
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Steve Asmussen / Garrett Gomez (8 0-1-0)
Running Style: Deep Closer
Why he COULD win the Derby: bred to go long; nice win in Sunland Derby when many doubted his ability to run on dirt; has looked impressive in the A.M. at CD.; 3rd race off layoff angle.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: first two career races were run on CD dirt oval… he finished 4th and 5th; jock’s Derby record; this years Derby “Wise-Guy” horse… don’t recall any of them winning; hasn’t raced in six weeks (only Barbaro in 2006 was able to win Derby coming off a 6 week layoff.
Early Betting Odds: 14-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 15-1

12th – #3Sandford silks Take Charge Indy
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Patrick Byrne / Calvin Borel (9 3-0-1)
Why he COULD win the Derby: won last race (FL Derby) over highly touted Union Rags and El Padrino); jock’s record in Derby is second to none among his peers; bred for Derby distance.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: no son of A.P. Indy has ever won the KY Derby; likely victim of a quick, early pace; too fragile (trainer likens his physical prowess to a filly)
Early Betting Odds: 30-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 37-1

13th – #5Donegal silks Dullahan
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Dale Romans / Kent Desormeaux (17 3-0-3)
Running Style: Closer
Why he COULD win the Derby: won last race (Blue Grass) impressively; has best “money rider” in the game today; 3rd race off layoff angle; past 7th races has improved on his (Brisnet) Speed Figure.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Dosage Index of 4.20 (a sub 4.00 is ideal for a Derby winner); only two wins of his career came at same track (Keeneland) on a synthetic surface; distant 4th in BC Juvenile at CD (only dirt start); no dam can claim more than one Derby winner (he has same “Mom” as 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird).
Early Betting Odds: 7-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 15-1

14th – #14Kendall Hansen silks Hansen
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Michael Maker/Ramon Dominguez (8 0-1-0)
Running Style: Early Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: 2 year old champion; won BC Juvenile; never worse than 2nd in six (6) career races.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: distance limitation; won BC Juvenile (only 1 has ever won Derby); hard to “rate” and will likely get caught up in fast early pace; Dosage Index of 5.40 (a sub 4.00 is ideal for a Derby winner).
Early Betting Odds: 7-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 10-1

15th – #2Bluegrass Hall silks Optimizer
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): D. Wayne Lukas / Jon Court (1 0-0-0); 15th
Running Style: Closer
Why he COULD win the Derby: Trainer has won race four (4) times; if he gets a clear path in the stretch he’ll be rolling late like a freight train.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: Horrible last race (9th in AR Derby); seems to run his best on turf or synthetic surfaces, not dirt.
Early Betting Odds: 31-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 50-1

16th – #12John Oxley silks Prospective
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Mark Casse / Luis Contreras (1st Derby)
Running Style: Mid-Pack
Why he COULD win the Derby: Gritty type of runner, when he gets engaged late in a race, he usually prevails.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: In only race @ CD in BC Juvenile last Fall he ran a dull 13th, 20 lengths behind winner (Hansen); jock’s first ever Derby mount.
Early Betting Odds: 69-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 30-1

17th – #1Michael Tabor silks Daddy Long Legs
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Aidan O’Brien / Colm O’Donoghue (1st Derby)
Running Style: Early Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: won last race (UAE Derby) run and at 1 3/16 (closest distance to Derby 1¼ mile); fresh (just 1 start in 2012); he’s 2 for 2 with Derby jock; trainer was 2nd in 2005 Derby with another European import (Bold Arrangement).
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby>: Worst possible post (#1) for a runner who needs to be near the lead early; only dirt surface start was a disaster at CD in BC Juvenile, finished 13th; runners who ship in from Dubai don’t run too well in first race in U.S. after travelling.
Early Betting Odds: 26-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 30-1

18th – #18Winchell silks Sabercat
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Steve Asmussen / Corey Nakatani (15 0-1-0)
Running Style: Mid-Pack
Why he COULD win the Derby: 3rd race off layoff angle; if he regains his 2 yr old form.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: got an easy $600k by winning Delta Jackpot last November (only reason he was able to get in the field); jock’s Derby record (if jock doesn’t win this year he sets record as the jock with most Derby mounts w/o a win).
Early Betting Odds: 39-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 30-1

19th – #9Shivananda silks Trinniberg
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Shivananda Parbhoo/ Willie Martinez (4 0-0-0)
Jocks Best Finish: 5th
Running Style: Early Speed
Why he COULD win the Derby: If the few other “Speed” horses don’t break cleanly from the gate and get shuffled back in the pack, leaving him alone on the lead, he’d be able to set softer early fractions and have enough left in the tank for the stretch drive.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: has never raced beyond 7 furlongs (Derby is 10f); not bred for the stamina required to carry his speed the Derby distance.
Early Betting Odds: 40-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 50-1

20th – #20Zetcher silks Liaison
Trainer / Jockey (Derby Mounts W-P-S): Bob Baffert / Martin Garcia (1 0-0-0); 15th
Running Style: Mid-Pack
Why he COULD win the Derby: was brilliant as a 2 year old; always have to respect trainer; jock is a young and upcoming star who could pull the upset.
Why he SHOULD NOT be able to win the Derby: finished off-the-board in all three 3 year old races; 6th in most recent race… last winner of Derby who finished worse than 4th in final race prior to Derby was Iron Liege in 1957.
Early Betting Odds: 60-1 compared to Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Based on my analysis of the Derby, I’ll put just under $100 into the race and play…

$10 WIN, PLACE, SHOW on # 13 (Went The Day Well) cost: $30

$2 EXACTA BOX on #4 (Union Rags), # 13 (Went The Day Well), # 15 (Gemologist), #19 (I’ll Have Another) cost: $48

$1 TRIFECTA PART-WHEEL #4, #7, #13, #15, #17 with #19 (I’ll Have Another).in 2nd spot with #4, #7, #13, #15, #17 cost: $20

Enjoy the race and Good Luck!

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1 Comments For This Post

  1. Ruben Says:

    Thanks for the informative post and guide. Was going to back Creative Cause, but this hoof issue is scaring the bejeevies out of me.

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