Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1 Food For Thought

February 17, 2011 | Gary Quill

The first Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool opens Friday, February 18th at noon EST and will remain open throughout the weekend, closing at 6:00pm EST Sunday, February 20th. So before you settle down to watch a weekend of NCAA Basketball action, you can visit your favorite short-term investment website and get action on the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby. Even though the race isn’t run until May 7th, over $500,000 will be wagered by horseplayers willing to take a shot at finding the Derby winner in February, at an attractive price.

 

Since the inception of the Derby Future wager 12 years ago (1999), it has been conducted as three separate pools. Pool 1 in February, Pool 2 in mid-March and Pool 3 in mid-April, each having 24 betting interests. The pools oddsmaker lists 23 horses that appear to be on the road to Run for the Roses, and one “All Other 3 year olds” selection (which should be self-explanatory).

 

Historically in Pool 1, the 23 3 year olds listed have about a 60% chance of just making it into the Derby starting gate, let alone win the race. But 7 of the past 12 Derby winners were listed on Pool 1. Therefore, you might be able to find the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner among those listed below. If you are a contrarian and thinking about a bet on “All Other 3 year olds” in Pool 1, you’ll probably get odds anywhere from 6-5 to 2-1 (my prediction) when they close the betting on Pool 1 come Sunday at 6:00pm EST.

 

 

   KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER – POOL 1   Feb. 18-20, 2011 

Program#

KDFW Pool 1 Wagering Interest

Morning Line Odds

1

Anthony’s Cross

30-1

2

Astrology

30-1

3

Brethren

15-1

4

Clubhouse Ride

50-1

5

Comma to the Top (g)

20-1

6

Decisive Moment

50-1

7

Dialed In

10-1

8

Gourmet Dinner

30-1

9

Indian Winter

50-1

10

J P’s Gusto (r)

20-1

11

Jaycito

20-1

12

Machen

30-1

13

Mucho Macho Man

30-1

14

Rogue Romance

30-1

15

Santiva

30-1

16

Silver Medallion

20-1

17

Soldat

20-1

18

Stay Thirsty

30-1

19

Sweet Ducky

50-1

20

The Factor

20-1

21

Tiz Blessed

30-1

22

To Honor and Serve

10-1

23

Uncle Mo

9-2

24

Mutuel Field (All Other 3-Year-Olds)

5-2

(g) – gelding   (r) – ridgling

Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia

                 Source: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/future-wager

 

 

After reviewing the 23 cast of characters in the 2011 Pool 1, I have determined which ones you can throw out.      

THROW-OUT from Pool 1: Clubhouse Ride, Comma To The Top, Decisive Moment, J P’s Gusto, Sweet Ducky and The Factor for the simple fact that their bloodlines will not allow them to excel when being asked to run 1¼ miles (the Derby distance).

 

For you Eager Beavers  who are tempted to place your bet before 5:30pm EST Saturday, you may want to consider this, there are five (5) colts on the above list who are entered to run in the $300k Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, Post Time is scheduled for 5:46pm EST. They are Decisive Moment, Machen, Mucho Macho Man, Rogue Romance and Santiva. This means there’s good news and bad news. You can wait to see how they run before making your bet, but if they run too good, they’ll get pounded and their odds will plummet.

    

Only three (3) of the top twelve (12) colts listed in GQ’s Derby Double Dozen back on February 4th were not among the 23 listed in Pool 1. They are #2 – Elite Alex, #7 – Sway Away and #9 – Casper’s Touch.

 

Enjoy your holiday weekend and the thrill that thoroughbred horse racing provides.

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