Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 – Now Open!

February 12, 2009 | Gary Quill

 A sure sign that spring is right around the corner is when the first Kentucky Derby Futures Pool opens for business. Now through 6pm (EST) on Sunday, February 15th, you can visit your favorite short-term investment website and get action on the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby. Even though the race isn’t run until May 2nd, over $500,000 will be wagered by horseplayers willing to take a shot at finding the Derby winner in February, at an attractive price.

 

Since the inception of the Derby Futures wager 10 years ago (1999), it has been conducted as three separate pools. Pool 1 in February, Pool 2 in mid-March and Pool 3 in mid-April, each having 24 betting interests. The pools oddsmaker lists 23 horses that appear to be on the road to Run for the Roses, and one “All Other 3 year olds” selection (which should be self-explanatory).

 

Historically in Pool 1, the “All Others” selection closes as the favorite in the range of 5-2 to 4-1 because a lot can happen between now and the first Saturday in May. Most of the 23 in Pool 1 never make it to the Derby starting gate, but oddly enough, of the past 10 Derby winners, only 4 of them were not in Pool 1. These 4 (Charismatic, War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Big Brown) were also absent from Pool 2. So, if you are thinking about a bet on “All Other 3 year olds” in Pool 1, save your money until Pool 2, where the odds on “All Others” have ranged from 4-1 to 14-1. Consider that nugget my Tip of the Day!

 

Here are some facts from the 2008 Derby Future Pool 1 group of 23.

FACT #1: Only 11 of the 23 were Derby starters.

FACT #2: Only 5 of those 11 were higher odds in Pool 1 versus Derby day track odds.

FACT #3: “All Others” closed at 3-1 as the winner Big Brown was 2-1 on Derby day.

 

After reviewing the 23 cast of characters in the 2009 Pool 1, I have determined which ones you can throw out and compiled my 2nd annual GQ’s Derby Double Dozen of those who, at this point, I feel could make a strong run at capturing the first jewel of the Triple Crown in 2009, given they are in the starting gate at approximately 6:05pm on May 2nd.

 

THROW-OUT from Pool 1: Beethoven, Big Drama, Capt. Candyman Can, Haynesfield, Notonthesamepage, Stardom Bound (filly), Taqarub, The Pamplemousse, Vineyard Haven and West Side Bernie.

 

GQ Derby Double Dozen (in order of preference accompanied by trainer)

  1. Pioneerof The Nile                        Bob Baffert

  2. Friesan Fire                                   Larry Jones

  3. Imperial Council                            Shug McGaughey

  4. Patena                                          Josie Carroll

  5. Flying Pegasus                             Ralph Nicks

  6. Old Fashioned                               Larry Jones

  7. Silver City                                      William Bret Calhoun

  8. Dunkirk                                          Todd Pletcher

  9. Papa Clem                                     Gary Stute

10. Chocolate Candy                          Jerry Hollendorfer

11. Theregoesjojo                               Kenneth McPeek

12. Desert Party                                  Saeed Bin Suroor

13. Midshipman                                   Bob Baffert

14. Hello Broadway                             Barclay Tagg

15. Giant Oak                                      Chris Block

16. Nuclear Wayne                              Steven Asmussen

17. Square Eddie                                 Doug O’Neill

18. Ryehill Dreamer                             John Shirreffs

19. Age Of Aquarius                            Adian O’Brien

20. This Ones For Phil                         Richard Dutrow

21. Rescue Squad                               Shug McGaughey

22. Danger To Society                         Richard Dutrow

23. Well Positioned                              Patrick Reynolds

24. I Want Revenge                             Jeff Mullins   

 

Past Performances for all of the Pool 1 horses are available at http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/futures/pps/derby_123_pool1.pdf and at the official Kentucky Derby website (www.kentuckyderby/2009/futurewager.com).

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