The second Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool is open until Sunday, March 15th at 6pm EDT. So before you settle down to watch the NCAA Tournament Selection Show, you can visit your favorite short-term investment website and get action on the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby. Even though the race isn’t run until May 2nd, over $500,000 will be wagered by horseplayers willing to take a shot at finding the Derby winner in March, at an attractive price.
Since the inception of the Derby Futures wager 10 years ago (1999), it has been conducted as three separate pools. Pool 1 in February, Pool 2 in mid-March and Pool 3 in mid-April, each having 24 betting interests. The pools oddsmaker lists 23 horses that appear to be on the road to Run for the Roses, and one “All Other 3 year olds” selection (which should be self-explanatory).
Historically in Pool 2, the 23 3-year olds listed have about a 70% chance of making it into the Derby starting gate. Conversely, of the past 10 Derby winners, only 3 of them were not in Pool 2. Only 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones made the cut for Pool 3. The other 2, Charismatic (1999) and War Emblem (2002) were also absent from Pool 3. So, if you are thinking about a bet on “All Other 3 year olds” in Pool 2, you only have about a 30% chance of cashing that ticket with odds of around 4-1 to 6-1.
After reviewing the 23 cast of characters in the 2009 Pool 2, as I did in February with Pool1, again I have determined which ones you can throw out and decided NOT to alter a single selection or ranking in my 2nd annual GQ’s Derby Double Dozen (originally published in my “Derby Futures Wager Pool 1” blog in February). Trying not to break my arm in patting myself on the back based on my bold predictions in February, six (6) of the ten (10) from Pool 1 who I said to THROW-OUT, are nowhere to be found in Pool 2 (Capt. Candyman Can, Haynesfield, Notonthesamepage, Stardom Bound (filly), Taqarub, and Vineyard Haven).
THROW-OUT from Pool 2: Beethoven, Big Drama, The Pamplemousse and West Side Bernie are the hold overs from Pool 1. Add Bear’s Rocket, General Quarters, Quality Road and Take The Points.
More back patting…Five (5) of the top twelve (12) colts listed in GQ’s Derby Double Dozen back on February 14th were not among the 23 listed in Pool 1 but have raced their way into Pool 2. Their names are in italics. Again, the below GQ’s Derby Double Dozen list is identical to the one posted back on February 14th.
GQ Derby Double Dozen (in order of preference accompanied by trainer)
1. Pioneerof The Nile Bob Baffert
2. Friesan Fire Larry Jones
3. Imperial Council Shug McGaughey
4. Patena Richard Dutrow (previously Josie Carroll)
5. Flying Pegasus Ralph Nicks
6. Old Fashioned Larry Jones
7. Silver City William Bret Calhoun
8. Dunkirk Todd Pletcher
9. Papa Clem Gary Stute
10. Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer
11. Theregoesjojo Kenneth McPeek
12. Desert Party Saeed Bin Suroor
13. Midshipman Bob Baffert
14. Hello Broadway Barclay Tagg
15. Giant Oak Chris Block
16. Nuclear Wayne Steven Asmussen
17. Square Eddie Doug O’Neill
18. Ryehill Dreamer John Shirreffs
19. Age Of Aquarius Adian O’Brien
20. This Ones For Phil Richard Dutrow
21. Rescue Squad Shug McGaughey
22. Danger To Society Richard Dutrow
23. Well Positioned Patrick Reynolds
24. I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins
Past Performances for all of the Pool 2 horses are available at http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/futures/pps/derby_123_pool2.pdf and at the official Kentucky Derby website (www.kentuckyderby/2009/futurewager.com). Enjoy the exciting chase scenes horse racing offers every day!