Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2

March 14, 2009 | Gary Quill

The second Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool is open until Sunday, March 15th at 6pm EDT. So before you settle down to watch the NCAA Tournament Selection Show, you can visit your favorite short-term investment website and get action on the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby. Even though the race isn’t run until May 2nd, over $500,000 will be wagered by horseplayers willing to take a shot at finding the Derby winner in March, at an attractive price.

Since the inception of the Derby Futures wager 10 years ago (1999), it has been conducted as three separate pools. Pool 1 in February, Pool 2 in mid-March and Pool 3 in mid-April, each having 24 betting interests. The pools oddsmaker lists 23 horses that appear to be on the road to Run for the Roses, and one “All Other 3 year olds” selection (which should be self-explanatory).

 

Historically in Pool 2, the 23 3-year olds listed have about a 70% chance of making it into the Derby starting gate. Conversely, of the past 10 Derby winners, only 3 of them were not in Pool 2. Only 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones made the cut for Pool 3. The other 2, Charismatic (1999) and War Emblem (2002) were also absent from Pool 3. So, if you are thinking about a bet on “All Other 3 year olds” in Pool 2, you only have about a 30% chance of cashing that ticket with odds of around 4-1 to 6-1.

 

After reviewing the 23 cast of characters in the 2009 Pool 2, as I did in February with Pool1, again I have determined which ones you can throw out and decided NOT to alter a single selection or ranking in my 2nd annual GQ’s Derby Double Dozen (originally published in my “Derby Futures Wager Pool 1″ blog in February). Trying not to break my arm in patting myself on the back based on my bold predictions in February, six (6) of the ten (10) from Pool 1 who I said to THROW-OUT, are nowhere to be found in Pool 2 (Capt. Candyman Can, Haynesfield, Notonthesamepage, Stardom Bound (filly), Taqarub, and Vineyard Haven).      

 

THROW-OUT from Pool 2: Beethoven, Big Drama, The Pamplemousse and West Side Bernie are the hold overs from Pool 1. Add Bear’s Rocket, General Quarters, Quality Road and Take The Points.

 

More back patting…Five (5) of the top twelve (12) colts listed in GQ’s Derby Double Dozen back on February 14th were not among the 23 listed in Pool 1 but have raced their way into Pool 2. Their names are in italics. Again, the below GQ’s Derby Double Dozen list is identical to the one posted back on February 14th.  

 

GQ Derby Double Dozen (in order of preference accompanied by trainer)

  1. Pioneerof The Nile                        Bob Baffert

  2. Friesan Fire                                 Larry Jones

  3. Imperial Council                           Shug McGaughey

  4. Patena                                        Richard Dutrow (previously Josie Carroll)

  5. Flying Pegasus                            Ralph Nicks

  6. Old Fashioned                              Larry Jones

  7. Silver City                                    William Bret Calhoun

  8. Dunkirk                                        Todd Pletcher

  9. Papa Clem                                   Gary Stute

10. Chocolate Candy                          Jerry Hollendorfer

11. Theregoesjojo                               Kenneth McPeek

12. Desert Party                                 Saeed Bin Suroor

13. Midshipman                                  Bob Baffert

14. Hello Broadway                             Barclay Tagg

15. Giant Oak                                     Chris Block

16. Nuclear Wayne                             Steven Asmussen

17. Square Eddie                                Doug O’Neill

18. Ryehill Dreamer                             John Shirreffs

19. Age Of Aquarius                            Adian O’Brien

20. This Ones For Phil                         Richard Dutrow

21. Rescue Squad                              Shug McGaughey

22. Danger To Society                         Richard Dutrow

23. Well Positioned                             Patrick Reynolds

24. I Want Revenge                             Jeff Mullins   

 

Past Performances for all of the Pool 2 horses are available at http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/futures/pps/derby_123_pool2.pdf and at the official Kentucky Derby website (www.kentuckyderby/2009/futurewager.com). Enjoy the exciting chase scenes horse racing offers every day!

Comments on Facebook

Comments are closed.