Kentucky Derby Predicted Morning Line Odds & Final Workouts

May 01, 2012 | Gary Quill

On Wednesday at 5:00pm EDT the NBC Sports network will broadcast live the Post Position Draw for the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby will take place at Churchill Downs. Native Kentuckian and veteran Derby Oddmaker Mike Battaglia will announce the Moring Line odds that he sets shortly after the Post Positions for all 20 runners have been determined.

Among the many hats that I’ve worn, setting the Morning Line odds at any thoroughbred horse racing track in America is not yet one of them, but on my Bucket List. Over the years, many of my friends and blog readers have come to enjoy, look forward to or simply tolerate my yearning to see how close my odds for a particular race come to the actual Morning Line. Battaglia has been working his craft for nearly 40 years whereas I do it for big races and friends and some horse owners who are eager for an opinion on a probable Morning Line.

The most challenging Morning Line Odds to set are for the Kentucky Derby because there is no other race in North America that starts 20 runners. For what its worth, below is my predicted Morning Line in alphabetic order.

Horse———————–Jockey———————-Trainer———————GQ odds*
Alpha ———————- undecided ————— Kiaran McLaughlin ——— 15-1
Bodemeister ———— Mike Smith ————— Bob Baffert ——————– 5-1
Creative Cause ——– Joel Rosario ————– Mike Harrington ————– 8-1
Daddy Long Legs —– Colm O’Donoghue —— Aidan P. O’Brien ———– 25-1
Daddy Nose Best —– Garrett Gomez ———- Steven M. Asmussen —— 20-1
Done Talking ———– Sheldon Russell ——— Hamilton A. Smith ——— 40-1
Dullahan —————– Kent Desormeaux ——– Dale Romans ————– 15-1
El Padrino ————– Rafeal Bejarano ———– Todd A. Pletcher ———- 25-1
Gemologist ———— Javier Castellano ——— Todd A. Pletcher ———— 8-1
Hansen —————— Ramon Dominguez —— Michael J. Maker ———- 15-1
I’ll Have Another —— Mario Gutierrez ———- Doug O’Neill —————— 8-1
Liaison ——————- Martin Garcia ————- Bob Baffert —————— 35-1
Optimizer ————— Jon Court ——————- D. Wayne Lukas ———– 50-1
Prospective ———— Luis Contreras ———— Mark Casse —————– 40-1
Rousing Sermon —– Jose Lezcano ————- Jerry Hollendorfer ———- 35-1
Sabercat —————– Corey Nakatani ———- Steven M. Asmussen —— 30-1
Take Charge Indy —– Calvin Borel ————— Patrick Byrne ————— 10-1
Trinniberg ————— Willie Martinez ———– Bisnath Parboo ————- 50-1
Union Rags ————– Julien Leparoux ——— Michael Matz —————– 6-1
Went The Day Well — John Velazquez ——— H. Graham Motion ——— 20-1

*The #1 Post will certainly raise the M/L for that runner by a couple points.

Tuesday morning marked to final serious workouts for any Derby starter. For the remainder of the week, each will simply visit the track for a light jog to stretch their legs and keep them fit. Here’s the workouts from the past week…

Thursday (Apr. 26th)…
Take Charge Indy Pmm 5f ft breezing 1:00.47 1/4

Friday (Apr. 27th)…
I’ll Have Another Bhp 6f ft breezing 1:13.80 7/22

Saturday (Apr. 28th)…
Alpha Bel tr.t 5f ft breezing :59.54 3/23
Done Talking Lrl 6f ft breezing 1:14.60 1/14
Hansen Cdt 5f ft breezing 1:01.20 2/5
Dullahan CD 5f ft breezing 1:00.99 9/53
Prospective CD 5f ft breezing 1:01.20 14/53
Union Rags CD 5f ft breezing :59.97 3/53
Went The Day Well CD 5f ft breezing 1:00.80 6/53

Sunday (Apr. 29th)…
Bodemeister CD 5f my breezing :59.60 2/10
El Padrino Pmm 4f ft breezing :53.34 7/8
Gemologist Pmm 4f ft breezing :50.39 1/8
Optimizer CD 5f my breezing 1:00.40 4/10

Monday (Apr. 30th)…
Creative Cause CD 4f ft breezing :47.43 3/58
Daddy Nose Best CD 4f ft breezing :49.23 5/58
Liaison CD 5f ft breezing 1:00.83 7/28
Sabercat CD 4f ft breezing :48.02 10/58

Tuesday (May 1st)…
Rousing Sermon CD 5f ft breezing 1:00.40 2/18

Note: Daddy Long Legs workouts in Europe have not been made available.

2 Comments For This Post

  1. Rubengy Says:

    I find it interesting how a horse that has never finished worse than 2nd, is the reigning 2 year old champ, has Ramon Dominguez on board, and has a Breeders Cup victory at Churchill will be a double digit pseudo longshiot Wednesday and at post time. I guess that all has to be balanced out by the distance, the Trinneberg suicide speed factor, and the still lingering threat of Dr. Hanson insisting on painting his horse plaid for the post parade.

    [GQ added: I hear ya Ruben, but his pedigree (by Tapit) and his inability to “stay on” in the Blue Grass after setting reasonable fractions early, further implanted the doubt that he could maintain his speed another 1/8th.]

  2. BillG Says:

    I see your point on the bluegrass but I think its been fairly accurate over time to say that “speed” horses move up and can hold their speed longer over dirt rather than synthetic tracks. wouldn’t that balance out? However, I agree Hansen still is up against as far as winning is concerned. 23 flat and 46.2 are pretty quick for polytrack.

Leave a Reply