Kentucky Oaks Analysis and Pimlico Friday Selections

May 03, 2012 | Gary Quill

The Friday before a Triple Crown race is always Ladies Day. When it’s Kentucky Derby week, Friday is known as “Oaks Day” in honor of the Kentucky Oaks race for 3 year old fillies. In addition, race track and off-track-betting establishments across the country can take action on the Derby beginning Friday. So you can visit any track or your favorite OTB and get your bet down early in case Saturday doesn’t work for you.

A nice exotic bet on Friday is the Oaks-Derby Double, where you must pick the winner of the Oaks and the winner of the Derby on one ticket. It’s the same as your typical Daily Double, just that it spans two days. The pool for this bet will be huge and with both races having full fields (14 and 20 horses), the payoff should be sweet.

After analyzing the Kentucky Oaks field, the pick is #3 – Summer Applause (15-1). Among this full field of 14 fillies, no less than six (6) usually do their running on the front end. This guarantees a fast early pace, When combining that with the fact this is the longest race these fillies will be asked to run in their career, the winner typically is one that comes from off the pace. Summer Applause has the ability to lay off the pace, and make a strong run in the stretch. She competed in four (4) races this winter at Fair Grounds. In following the races there, for the majority of the meet, the dirt surface was very “speed favoring”. That is, Closers had a tough time catching the front runners, but in Summer Applause’s last two (2) races, she was able to close ground.

Others to consider for your exotics are #1 – On Fire Baby (4-1) who is 2 for 2 on the CD dirt and has been working out at 7 furlongs, a great strategy to get a horse ready for a distance race; #2 –Grace Hall (5-2) looked scary good in winning her most recent effort with ease; #10 – And Why Not (15-1) tossed in a real clunker in her 3 year old debut (7th by 16), hasn’t raced since but turned in a bullet drill over the CD dirt in her final prep for Oaks… she’s classy enough to pull off the upset.

Detailed analysis for the entire 20 horse Derby field will be posted Friday evening. For the Oaks-Derby Double, a $1 per wager bet, this will be my ticket…
1, 2, 3, 10 w/ 7, 13, 15, 17, 19 (cost $20).

The Kentucky Oaks is the 11th race on the Churchill Downs Friday card. It will be broadcast live on NBC Sports Network, whose coverage begins at 5pm. Post Time for race 11th is scheduled fro 5:45pm EDT. NBC will have full coverage of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday beginning at 4:00pm. Derby race post time is scheduled for 6:24pm EDT.

Pimlico Turf starting gate

Recapping selections from Day 19 (Thursday, May 3rd) had 7 winners (2 Top Selections) with the $2 Early Double ($26.20); $2 Exactas in the 3rd ($29.60), 5th ($17.80), 7th ($26.20) and 8th ($20.40) races; $1 Pick-4 in races 3-5 ($25.80); $1 Pick-4 in races 2-5 ($73.80).

Both the BEST BET (19 7-6-2) made even money odds look like a gift as she quickly sprinted to the early lead in the 1/16 mile contest, continued to distant herself from her rivals and won easily by 20 lengths, returning $4.00 to WIN, $3.20 to PLACE and $2.60 to SHOW. The LONGSHOT PICK (19 2-2-6) didn’t take any action at the windows (25-1) and didn’t run a lick, finishing off-the-board (OTB).

Selections for Day 20 at Pimlico Friday, May 4th card are posted below.

Soup Of The Day: Crab & Corn Bisque

1st race post is 1:10pm EDT. Track Condition… Dirt: FAST Turf: FIRM

1st race – $16,000 Maiden Claiming F&M for 3 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#5 – Bluegrass Kopp (8-5) *** BEST BET ***
#4 – Special Salute (9-2)
#6 – Forest Imp (5-1)

2nd race – $10,000 Claiming NW2L for 3 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#3 – Jango (5-1)
#6 – Balto More (2-1)
#2 – Vows To Be Broken (8-5)

3rd race – $5,000 Claiming for 3 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#4 – Rock N’ Bid (6-1)
#2 – Chance And A Half (2-1)
#1 – Patrol Leader (10-1)

4th race – $33,000 Maidens for 2 y.o. fillies – 4½ furlongs
#3 – Stormy Adventure (3-1)
#6 – Robbinette (12-1)
#4 – Jen’s Bright Candl (2-1)

5th race – $25,000 Claiming NW2L for F&M 3 y.o. & up – 1 mile on Turf
#5 – Tinderbox (8-1) $$$ LONGSHOT PICK $$$
#1 – Lucky Holly (7-2)
#7 – Jersey Rambler (6-1)

6th race – $5,000 Claiming for 3 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#4 – Mia’s Angel (9-5)
#5 – Asylum (15-1)
#1 – Beth’s Mark (20-1)

7th race – $33,000 Allowance N1X for F&M 3 y.o. & up – 1 1/16 mile on Turf
#10 – Favored Lady (4-1)
#6 – My Nan Nell (12-1)
#1 – I Like It (2-1)

8th race – $33,000 Maidens for 3 y.o. & up – 1 1/16 mile
#2 – Eulonia (8-1)
#5 – Baltimore Bianca (4-1)
#6 – Startsprednthenews (20-1)

9th race – $8,000 Claiming for 3 y.o. OR 4 y.o. & up NW3L – 6 furlongs
#3 – Schlossed (8-5)
#2 – Carolyn’s Moon (2-1)
#1 – Castleton Park (8-1)

10th race – $33,000 Maidens for F&M for 3 y.o. & up – 1 1/16 mile on Turf
#8 – Revocable (6-1)
#1 – Vapour Musing (5-1)
#6 – Hildegrade (3-1)

Good Luck!

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