The Friday before a Triple Crown race is always Ladies Day. When it’s Kentucky Derby week, Friday is known as “Oaks Day” in honor of the Kentucky Oaks race for 3 year old fillies. In addition, race track and off-track-betting establishments across the country can take action on the Derby beginning Friday. So you can visit any track or your favorite OTB and get your bet down early in case Saturday doesn’t work for you.
A nice exotic bet on Friday is the Oaks-Derby Double, where you must pick the winner of the Oaks and the winner of the Derby on one ticket. It’s the same as your typical Daily Double, just that it spans two days. The pool for this bet will be huge and with both races having full fields (13 and 20 horses), the payoff should be sweet. Best of all, it’s a $1 bet.
After analyzing the Kentucky Oaks field of thirteen, I settled on #1 – Joyful Victory (5-2), #4 – Kathmanblu (4-1) and #13 – St. John’s River (30-1). Of the 3, the latter has the biggest upside and most likely to get the added distance in this 1 1/8 mile contest. She happens to be ridden by Hereford High (MD) graduate Anna “Rosie” Napravnik. Rosie is the hottest (in terms of winniing races in this sense) jockey in the country. After taking the riding title at the recently concluded Fairgrounds winter meet, she moved onto Churchill Downs where she’ll make Louisville, KY her home, at during the current meet. Add the fact that it’s the Kentucky Oaks, wouldn’t it be appropriate for her to win this race?
Detailed analysis for the entire 20 horse Derby field will be posted Friday evening. For the Oaks-Derby Double, since it’s a $1 bet, go deep with 1, 4, 13 w/ 2, 8, 11, 12, 17 (cost $15).
The Kentucky Oaks is the 11th race on the Churchill Downs Friday card. It will be broadcast live on Versus network, whose coverage begins at 5pm. Post Time for race 11th is scheduled fro 5:45pm EDT. NBC will have full coverage of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, beginning at 4pm. Derby race post time is scheduled for 6:25pm EDT.
Answer to Wednesday’s Derby trivia question… Derby Morning Line favorite Dialed In (4-1) won his career debut race last Fall over the Churchill Downs dirt oval. The last Kentucky Derby winner who broke his maiden at Churchill Downs and won the Derby was Brokers Tip in the 1933.
Today’s Derby trivia question… In Kentucky Derby history only 3 horses have completed the 1¼ mile race in less than two minutes. Can you name them?
Recapping Day 19 (Thursday, May 5th) at the Pimlico Spring Meet…
Best Bet Chasing The Money (#7 8th race; M/L 5-2; P/T 3-5) made short work of this field at a very short price, but a win is a win with a 60% ROI, as he paid a paltry $3.20 to WIN, $2.20 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
Best Bet pick scorecard from 19 selections at the Pimlico Meet: 6 WIN – 3 PLACE – 5 SHOW.
Longshot County Gold (#11 5th race on the turf; M/L 8-1; P/T 8-1) came out of the gate like she was shot out of a cannon, taking an uncontested 3 length lead until mid-stretch, when 2 rivals met her eye to eye, yet her jock never whipped nor asked her for her best stride, simply sitting on her like a statue. This one would turn out to be a “tighter” for the next race. Keep an eye out for her next time.
Longshot pick scorecard from 19 selections at the Pimlico Meet: 3 WIN – 5 PLACE – 1 SHOW.
Here’s how the Other “Who Do Ya Like” (WDYL) Plays panned out …
1st race ($1 DD): 2, 5, 10 w/ 1, 4 ($6)… came 5-5
2nd race (.50 Pick3): 1, 4 w/ 3, 11, 12 w/ 1, 2, 4 ($9)… came 5-2-4
3rd race: # 3 – If It Itches (8-1) … OTB
4th race: # 4 – Sir Duncan (4-5)… WINNER: $3.60 $2.20 $2.10
5th race ($.50 Tri): 5, 6, 8, 9, 11 w/ 12 w/ 5, 6, 8, 9, 11 ($10)… came 12-6-9 ouch! Paid $56.40 w/ fav. on top!
7th race: # 3 – Seemybeauty (6-1)… OTB
9th race ($1 DD): 2, 5, 7 w/ 1, 2, 8, 10 ($12)… came 7-6
For the Pimlico Spring Meet, Day 20 (Friday, May 6th) …
Soup of the Day: Sausage Gumbo
Bet with your head, not over it!
Best Bet: Line Change (#1 9th race; M/L 6-5) has climbed the class ladder in each of his 5 career starts. This 3 year old son of Toccet who is cut out for this (1 1/16 mile) distance. Jock (Joshua Navarro) elected to stay with him for trainer Gary Capuano instead of Ben Felicano’s #4 – Carolyn’s Moon (6-1), who Navarro normally rides for, winning 21% of the time when on Felicano’s horses. So Line Change must be pretty special. The entire Pimlico card appears kind of “chalky”, so if this one can win at even money or better, it’s a plus.
Longshot: Elusive Appeal (#8 5th race on turf; M/L 10-1) showed speed then faded to 4th in most recent effort where the winner returns in here and rightfully is the 6-5 favorite. The difference today is the make-up of the other runners. Don’t see much early speed in this 5 furlong sprint, so this 5 year old mare could find a firmer turf course more speed friendly and result in an upset win.
Other “Who Do Ya Like” (WDYL) Plays…
1st race ($2 DD): 1, 7 w/ 1 ($4) – take what they give ya.
3rd race: # 10 – Frogtown (10-1) 1st-timer should take to the turf
7th race: #2 – Giant Talent (2-1) 1st since layoff and sheds blinkers
9th race ($2 DD): 1 w/ 4, 7, 8, 9 ($8)
Enjoy a great day of thoroughbred horse racing. Share the fun with a friend.