Pimlico Day 7 – Analysis and Selections

April 29, 2010 | Gary Quill

The Kentucky Derby is a few days away, but the Preakness field has already begun to take shape. Thanks to a good number of horses who didn’t have enough Graded Stakes Earnings to crack into the Derby field which is limited to 20 starters, the 135th Preakness Stakes could be their next start. That list includes Caracortado, a 5-time winner in California , WinStar Farms Drosselmeyer, an unlucky 4th in the Louisiana Derby and possibly two from the Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. barn,  speedster D’Funnybone and Louisiana Derby runner-up, A Little Warm.

                               

 

Recapping Day 6 (Sunday, April 25th) at the Pimlico Spring Meet…

 

Best Bet Tufton  (# 2; 7th  race; 5-2) was supported at the betting windows, being sent off as the second choice, but could not keep pace with the eventual winner and faded in the final furlong to finish 4th.

Best Bet pick scorecard from 4 selections at the Pimlico Meet: 0 WIN – 2 PLACE – 1 SHOW.


Longshot Piano Red  (# 9; 5th race on the turf; 24-1) was never a factor in the race and when it appeared he might start to run when they turned for home, he didn’t fire, finishing 7th in a 4-way photo for 4th.

Longshot pick scorecard from 5 selections at the Pimlico Meet: 1 WIN – 0 PLACE – 0 SHOW

 

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day$77 on Suzzona (# 6; 2nd race on the turf; 2-1) broke sharply, patiently tracked the leader then took over at the head of the stretch and pulled away to win by 5, paying $6.20 to WIN, $3.20 for the PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW. The parlay is on a 4 day win streak with $85.10 to “Let It Ride” on Day 7.

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For the Pimlico Spring Meet, Day 7 (Thursday, April 29th)…

 

Best Bet:   Conceit  (# 12; 7th race on the turf; 9-2)

 

In this turf sprint (5 furlong) race for Maidens, it’s often difficult to handicap when there are a bunch of first-timers and runners trying the grass for the first time. But this time of year, in races for “3 year olds & up”, the 3 year olds aren’t mature enough to compete against their older rivals. Conceit is one of only two 4 year olds in this contest and has shown a liking for the grass which is consistent with his heavy turf pedigree. Here’s hoping Conceit can graduate today to help the “Best Bet” pick notch its first winner of the meet.          

 

Longshot:    Delaunay (# 6; 6th race; 6-1)

 

This 3 year old son of Smoke Glacken has been on the shelf since last October, after 1 win and 2 runner-up finishes in 3 career starts. His morning work tab has been well spaced and the most recent one came out of the gate, which often indicates a runner is being trained up for a big effort.

 

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $145.10 ($137.40 bankroll – $77 wager + $84.70 return)

 

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day:  $85 on Nacho Friend (# 2; 2nd race; 7-5) is returning from a disappointing 5th place effort in the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby. In fact, in his last 3 races (all graded stakes); the winners are Derby horses (Endorsement, Awesome Act and Backtalk). Even though Endorsement will not run in the Derby due to injury, the runner-up in that race is another Derby horse, Conveyance. My guess is that trainer Kelly Breen has visions of running Nacho Friend in the Preakness, but wants to run him in an easy “non-winners other than” Allowance race as a prep. Breen likes to ship his stakes horses in 2 weeks before a big race to get them acclimated to the track. Hmmm. Preakness is 2 weeks away. As the prohibitive M/L favorite it might appear we’re taking the easy route to keeping the SHOW Parlay alive, but in horse racing there are no “sure things”. If the racing gods are good to us, we’ll gladly take the minimum 5% ($2.10) return on investment.     

 

Looks like Day 7 will be a beautiful one with sunny skies and warming tempatures. So enjoy the exciting chase scenes thoroughbred horse racing has to offer at Pimlico. Good Luck!

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