Pimlico Day 8 – Analysis and Selections

April 30, 2010 | Gary Quill

The Friday before a Triple Crown race is always Ladies Day. When it’s Kentucky Derby week, Friday is known as “Oaks Day” in honor of the Kentucky Oaks race for 3 year old fillies. In addition, race track and off-track-betting establishments across the country can take action on the Derby beginning Friday. A nice exotic bet is the Oaks-Derby Double, where you must pick the winner of the Oaks and the winner of the Derby on one ticket. It’s the same as your typical Daily Double, just that it spans two days. Last year, the combination of Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra with Derby winner Mine That Bird paid $237.40 on a $2 bet.

 

 

Recapping Day 7 (Thursday, April 29th) at the Pimlico Spring Meet…

 

Best Bet Conceit  (# 12; 7th  race on the turf; 7-2) took care of his 3 year old rivals in fine fashion winning the 5 furlong contest in a romp by 4, paying $9.60 to WIN, $5.00 for the PLACE and $3.80 to SHOW.  

Best Bet pick scorecard from 5 selections at the Pimlico Meet: 1 WIN – 2 PLACE – 1 SHOW.


Longshot Delaunay (# 6; 6th race; 5-1) showed no willingness to get engaged in the race, being content to lag towards the back of the field from start to finish, continuing the Longshot pick dry spell for the 4th consecutive racing day of failing to even hit the board. This one finishing a dull 5th .

Longshot pick scorecard from 6 selections at the Pimlico Meet: 1 WIN – 0 PLACE – 0 SHOW

 

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day$85 on Nacho Friend (# 2; 2nd race; 1-2) was money in the bank. That is, 5% on our 2 minute investment, just like when you were a kid and your Passbook Savings Account at the corner Savings & Loan earned 5% interest. Nacho Friend payoff was a poultry $3.00 to WIN, $2.10 for the PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW. Don’t be surprised if he runs in the Preakness. The parlay is on a 5 day win streak with $89.35 to “Let It Ride” on Day 8.

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For the Pimlico Spring Meet, Day 8 (Friday, April 30th)…

 

Best Bet:   Goodness Greatness  (# 7; 6th  race; 20-1)

 

That’s not a typo on my part, her Morning Line odds are 20-1 and based on the recent level of competition ($5k Claimers over the past 4 races), she deserves to be at least 10-1, but here’s my angle. Trainer Tim Tullock claimed her out of her last race where she was the beaten favorite, but was steadied and wide on the turns. Tullock wins at a 27% clip with his runners “first race off the claim” and got her from a barn that was 1 for 34 in 2010. Goodness Greatness has back class to compete with this group, has hit the board twice in 6 starts at this (1 1/16 mile) distance and has a second place finish in 2 lifetime efforts at Pimlico in which she recorded her best Speed Rating Number of her 29 race career.          

 

Longshot:    Buzzbee (# 10; 9th race on the turf; 20-1)

 

She’s a 4 year old first-time starter with decent turf pedigree. All of her A.M. drills have been on Laurel’s main track, but they’re evenly spaced and the times are acceptable. She is sent out by trainer Gregory Wilson who years ago had a pretty sizable, successful operation, but only has started 9 so far in 2010, getting 2 to the Winners Circle, is 1 for 3 with First-Timer Starters and will give jockey Eric Rodriguez a leg up. Eric is a terrific “gate-rider”, meaning he is able to get horses to break quickly from the gate, which is what will be needed in this 5 furlong dash.  

 

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $149.35  ($145.10 bankroll – $85 wager + $89.25 return)

 

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day:  $89 on Even Sweeter (# 10; 7th  race on the turf; 4-5) is 4 year old filly taking on 9 other maidens (8 are 3 year olds) and half of them are trying the turf for the first time, and none of those have sparkling turf pedigree. Even Sweeter hails from the barn of turf-specialist, Jonathan Sheppard, who is shipping her in from Gulfstream after 3 turf efforts and gets the best local turf rider in the irons, Horatio Karamanos. She deserves the “odds-on” (4-5) Morning Line favorite label and should run like a 4-5, graduating today. If Even Sweeter hits the board, I believe she’ll return at least $2.20 to SHOW thanks to the large field. At 4-5, we’ll take a 10% return on investment.     

 

Looks like Day 8 will be a beautiful one with sunny skies, so enjoy the exciting chase scenes thoroughbred horse racing has to offer. Good Luck!

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