If you’d take a poll of all the thoroughbred horse racing experts and/or those who make their living by writing about the sport, the majority would agree that any one of the Kentucky Derby prep races run from March 26th through April 16th serve as the final race prior to (hopefully) running in the 137th Kentucky Derby on May 7, 2011 for a would be starter.
The major Derby prep races held within that timeframe were the Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby. What occurred in each of these seven (7) races that one runner in each race had in common and can you name them? (All answers will be posted here; correct answer in Friday’s blog)
Recapping, Day 11 (Sunday, April 17th) at the Pimlico Spring Meet…
Best Bet Empress Lisa (# 4; 10th race; M/L 5-1; P/T 5-2) failed to get an easy early lead as she got pressured right from the start from the 8-5 Post Time favorite (#2 – Miss Quack Quack) who was sent on a suicide mission to deny ”Lisa” an uncontested lead. “Quack’s” jockey succeeded in burning out “Lisa” and his own mount which resulted in both fading from contention in the stretch and off the board.
Best Bet pick scorecard from 11 selections at the Pimlico Meet: 4 WIN – 2 PLACE – 1 SHOW.
Longshot Wild Kay (# 5; 6th race; M/L 6-1; P/T 16-1) didn’t run as I expected she would, but going into the first turn was forced very wide by the 1-2 Post Time favorite and eventual winner, #1 – Girl’s Getaway when the jock was caught on the rail behind 2 horses and basically pushed Wild Kay aside in order to get clear. Wild Kay finished 4th and her jockey lodged an objection against the winner, but it was disallowed. Stewards rarely take down such heavy favorites unless the foul nearly unseats the rider or causes the horse to stop in his/her tracks.
Longshot pick scorecard from 11 selections at the Pimlico Meet: 3 WIN – 3 PLACE – 1 SHOW
SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, $54 on Doadeerafemaledeer (# 7; 1st race; M/L 7-2; P/T 3-2) was bet down to the favorite. It’s crazy how bettors ignore the fact that some horses just don’t have the will to win, but have enough class and energy to plod along and finish in-the-money. True to her form, she was god enough to rally from last early on to be third best in here, returning $2.60 to SHOW. That’s a 30% ROI, adding $16.20 to the SHOW Parlay bankroll, bringing it to $71.10.
For the Pimlico Spring Meet, Day 12 (Thursday, April 21st) …
Soup Of The Day: Potato & Ham
Best Bet: Toe Shoes (# 11; 10th race on the turf; M/L 4-1) makes her first start “off the Claim” for the jockey/trainer combo of Dyn Panell and John Rigattieri who are on fire at this meet, winning at a 39% clip. She takes what appears is a step up in class from $5k to $7.5k, but here is where you need to dig beyond her 10 Past Performance lines, which show all dirt races, competing and winning at the $5k but not above that level. This race is on the turf, not the dirt. In her career she has run 3 times on the turf, only hitting the board in one race, finishing second. Not very impressive BUT her turf earnings show $4,750, (most likely) for that race alone. Running second earns 20% of that races purse money. If you do the math, that computes to a $23,750 purse. That’s quite a bit more than even today’s inflated purse of $14k, thanks to slots revenue.
Longshot: Man From Hope (# 1; 9th race; M/L 8-1) makes his Pimlico debut stretching out to 1 1/16 mile after racing at Charlestown in 3 sprints this year. He is bred (by 1996 Preakness winner Louis Quatorze) to go long so that’s one “positive”. Though he was aggressively placed last time out at this same level ($15k Claiming) after breaking his maiden for $10k, there is reason to think he has a shot. That last race was against non-winners of 3 lifetime races (aka NW3L), a tougher group than what he’ll face here, another “positive” and the race lacks early speed (maybe from the M/L favorite) so as with any runner stretching out from sprints for the first time, he should be on the lead early, especially having Juan Acosta in the irons.
SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $71.10 ($54.90 bankroll – $54 wager + $70.20 return)
SHOW Parlay Play of the Day: (updated 12:25pm) Original selection I Suppose (# 4; 2nd race; M/L 8-5) was SCRATCHED. In making my case for him, I stated that IMHO the 9-5 second choice (#3 – Shop Smart) has a number of question marks which make him vulnerable and the 9-2 3rd choice (#1 – Magnum Flight) has consistently finished 2nd or 3rd in his last 6 races at this level (sounds like he should be the SHOW Parlay play) and the remaining 4 runners jockeys I wouldn’t bet with your money! So with a fair amount of confidence, I Suppose would hold to future of the SHOW Parlay Play in his hoof. Well, since he got scratched, the substitute selection is now Magnum Flight (#1; 2nd race; M/L 9-2) .
Enjoy a great day of thoroughbred horse racing. Share the fun with a friend.