A Lesson in Regression

July 27, 2012 | Thyrl Nelson

A Lesson in Regression

Here’s a quick breakdown of the Ravens game-by-game, and the yardage, passing and scoring numbers put up by the Ravens in comparison to their opponents’ averages.

 

Ravens Week-by-Week Performance vs. Opponents’ Averages

 

 

Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh – Ravens win 35-7

 

PIT defense 1st in total yards (271.8), 1st in passing yards (171.9) 1st in points per game (14.2)

Ravens had 385 yards (+113), Flacco 224/3/0 (+72), scored 35 (+21)

 

 

Week 2 @ Tennessee – Ravens lose 26-13

 

TEN defense 18th in total yards (355.1), 14th in passing yards (226.8) 8th in points per game (19.8)

Ravens had 229 yards (-126), Flacco 184/1/2 (-43), scored 13 (-7)

 

 

Week 3 @ St. Louis – Ravens win 37-7

 

St.L defense 22nd in total yards (358.4, 7th in passing yards (206.3) 26th in points per game (25.4)

Ravens had 553 yards (+195), Flacco 389/3/0 (+183), scored 37 (+12)

 

 

Week 4 vs. New York Jets – Ravens win 34-17

 

NYJ defense 5th in total yards (312.1), 5th in passing yards (201), 20th in points per game (22.7)

Ravens had 267 yards (-45), Flacco 163/0/1 (-38), scored 34 (+11)

 

 

Week 5 – BYE

 

Week 6 vs. Houston – Ravens win 29-14

 

HOU defense ranked 2nd in total yards (285.7), 3rd in passing yards (187.9), 4th in points per game (17.4)

Ravens had 402 yards (+116), Flacco 305/0/1 (+117), scored 29 (+12)

 

 

Week 7 @ Jacksonville – Ravens lose 12-7

 

JAX defense ranked 6th in total yards (313), 8th in passing yards (208.8), 11th in points per game (20.6)

Ravens had 146 total yards (-167), Flacco 137/1/1 (-72), scored 7 (-13)

 

 

Week 8 vs. Arizona – Ravens win 30-27

 

AZ ranked 18th in total yards (355.1), 17th in passing yards (231), 17th in points per game (21.8)

Ravens had 405 yards (+50), Flacco 336/0/1 (+105), scored 30 (+8)

 

 

Week 9 @ Pittsburgh – Ravens win 23-20

 

PIT defense 1st in total yards (271.8), 1st in passing yards (171.9) 1st in points per game (14.2)

Ravens had 356 yards (+84), Flacco 300/1/0 (+128), scored 23 (+11)

 

 

Week 10 @ Seattle – Ravens lose 22-17

 

SEA defense ranked 9th in total yards (332.2), 11th in passing yards (219.9), 7th in points per game (19.7)

Ravens had 323 yards (-9), Flacco 255/1/0 (+35), scored 17 (-3)

 

 

Week 11 vs. Cincinnati – Ravens win 31-24

 

CIN defense ranked 7th in total yards (316.3), 9th in passing yards (211.6), 9th in points per game (20.2)

Ravens had 373 yards (+57), Flacco 270/2/1 (+52), scored 31 (+11)

 

 

Week 12 vs. SF – Ravens win 16-6

 

SF defense ranked 4th in total yards (308.1), 16th in passing yards (230.9), 2nd in points per game (14.3)

Ravens had 253 yards (-55), Flacco 161/1/0 (-69), scored 16 (+2)

 

 

Week 13 @ Cleveland – Ravens win 24-10

 

CLE defense ranked 10th in total yards (332.4), 2nd in passing yards (184.9), 5th in scoring (19.2)

Ravens had 448 yards (+116), Flacco 158/0/0, scored 24 (+5)

 

 

Week 14 vs. Indianapolis – Ravens win 24-10

 

IND defense ranked 25th in total yards (370.9), 15th in passing yards (227), 28th in scoring (26.9)

Ravens had 358 yards (-13), Flacco 227/2/1 (-), scored 24 (-3)

 

 

Week 15 @ San Diego – Ravens lose 34-14

 

SD defense ranked 16th in total yards (346.6), 13th in passing yards (224.4), 22nd in points per game (23.6)

Ravens had 290 yards (-57), Flacco 226/2/2 (+2), scored 14 (-9)

 

 

Week 16 vs. Cleveland – Ravens win 20-14

 

CLE defense ranked 10th in total yards (332.4), 2nd in passing yards (184.9), 5th in scoring (19.2)

Ravens had 284 yards (-48), Flacco 132/2/1 (-52), scored 20 (+1)

 

 

Week 17 @ Cincinnati – Ravens win 24-16

 

CIN defense ranked 7th in total yards (316.3), 9th in passing yards (211.6), 9th in points per game (20.2)

Ravens had 221 yards (-95), Flacco 130/1/0 (-81), scored 24 (+4)

 

 

For the season the Ravens picked up 7.5 more yards per than their opponents normally gave up, threw for 19.5 more yards than their opponents’ averages and score 4 more points per game than their opponents normally gave up.

 

As the rest of the AFC North played basically the same schedule, look at how the division rankings shaped up on offense

 

Yards per game: PIT (372.3), BAL (338.7), CIN (319.9), CLE (288.8)

Passing Yards: PIT (253.4), BAL (213.9), CIN (208.8), CIN (193.1)

Rushing Yards: BAL (124.8), PIT (118.9), CIN (111.1), CLE (95.7)

PPG: BAL (23.6), CIN (21.5, PIT (20.3), CLE (13.6)

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