Playing With House Money – NFL Week 3

September 21, 2012 | Thyrl Nelson

Football is back which means so is my weekly opportunity to embarrass myself by trying to pick games against the spread. I missed game 1 of the season so I’m already looking to play catch-up. Here are the spreads associated with every NFL game remaining this week along with my picks. I’ll also pick 5 “5-star locks” each week and we’ll keep track of those separately too.We’ll stay true to the game claiming 100 pts for wins and taking 110 pts hits on losses.

Remember, as always, this is not an inducement to gamble it should instead serve as the exact opposite of an inducement to gamble (when you see my record you’ll understand why).


Sunday Early Games


Colts +10 @ Bears (+/- 43.5)

The Bears were clicking on offense when Jay Cutler went down last year, and even when they were good the Colts weren’t exactly known for defense


Eagles -9.5 @ Browns (+/-43)

Michael Vick is healthy (or so they say) but whether he finishes the game that way remains to be seen and 9.5 is a lot of points to lay on the road.


***** Redskins +7.5 @ Saints (+/-50) ***** 5-Star Lock

No one knows how the Saints will respond post-bounty gate but my guess is that at home in the first week they’ll answer the bell in a big way.


Bills +3 @ Jets (+/-38)

The Bills could be an interesting sleeper this year, and while I’m not as ready to bury the Jets as most seem to be, I’ll bury them this week.


*****Patriots -6 @ Titans (+/-47) ***** 5-Star Lock

Patriots giving less than a TD against the Titans without Kenny Britt…this has to be a typo right?


Jags +3.5 @ Vikings (+/-39.5)

The Jags are surprisingly strong in week 1 and the Vikings without Peterson might struggle to score at all.


Dolphins +13 @ Texans (+/-42.5)

Almost 2 TD seems like an awful lot of points to lay, but there are lots of reasons to like the Texans and almost no reasons to like Miami.


***** Rams +7.5 @ Detroit (+/-45.5) ***** 5-Star Lock

Again not sure what I’m missing here but these 2 teams don’t seem to belong in the same league much less within a TD of each other in Detroit.


Falcons -3 @ Chiefs (+/-44)

This was my toughest game to pick. I like the Chiefs a lot but they’re working out some kinks the Falcons should be feeling urgency.


Sunday Late


*****49ers +5 @ Packers (+/-47) ***** 5-Star Lock

The 49ers should be strong on defense and better on offense but keeping up with the Packers is a tall order.

Panthers -2.5 @ Buccaneers (+/-47)

New coach new attitude in Tampa Bay and I’m just not buying all of the Cam Newton hype just yet.


Seahawks -3 @ Cardinals (+/-41)

Does either team have a QB? The potential absence of Marshawn Lynch makes me nervous but not nervous enough to pick the Cardinals.


Sunday Night


*****Steelers +2 @ Broncos (+/-44.5) ***** 5-Star Lock

Peyton Manning hype aside this is a real defense that’ll be out to hit him and I imagine the Steelers have been waiting for this since last season ended.


Monday Night


Bengals +6 @ Ravens (+/-41)

I’m not even going to pretend to be objective here but the Ravens are tough to beat at home.


Chargers +1 @ Raiders (+/-46.5)

Don’t sleep on the Raiders, plus Darren McFadden is healthy and Ryan Matthews is not.