There are lots of theories about what’s been wrong with Jim Johnson over the last week or so. The analysis (or over-analysis) of baseball can lead us down a lot of different roads, seeking an explanation for why the bottom has dropped out so dramatically on the Orioles’ closer. Sometimes that analysis might lead us to overlook the easiest of answers, but sometimes the easiest answers are the right ones.

The inability of the Orioles starting rotation to simply eat innings has been an issue all season. Now it seems that issue could be taking its toll on the bullpen.

It’s not as if last year the O’s did a much better job of covering innings with their starters, but what they were able to do was better hide their issues with a steady stream of arms passing through the revolving door between the big club and its minor league affiliates.

This year with fewer players having options remaining, the Orioles have to be more creative with their roster shuffling or risk losing players with promise to the waiver wire when sending them back and forth between the minors and the big club.

Last year the Orioles found themselves on the bad side of the run differential equation too. As a result many cast the team as lucky, and deemed their success unsustainable. While they indeed may have been lucky, it was that luck that in large part made them sustainable.

This year’s Orioles have a fantastic offense, and are sitting on the right side of the run differential, but they haven’t been able to come up with blowout wins. The blowout losses that fed last season’s run differential debate are gone as well, which hasn’t provided the team with the “luxury” of rolling out the B-bullpen and living to fight another day. As a result, the 3 arms in the bullpen that the O’s seem to trust are being used at an alarming, and likely unsustainable, rate.

Jim Johnson

Last year Johnson pitched in 71 games in the regular season. That’s 43.8% of the team’s 162.He pitched in 63 wins (67.7%) and only 8 losses (11.5%).

So far this season, Johnson has pitched in half of the team’s 44 games. He’s been in 73.9% of Orioles wins, and also in 23.8% of their losses.

He’s on pace to pitch an incredible 81 games.

Darren O’Day

In 2012 O’Day pitched in 69 games. That’s 42.5% of the Orioles total. He threw in 48 wins (51.6%) and 21 losses (30.4%).

So far in 2013, he’s thrown in 21 games or 47.7% of the teams total. . He’s been used in 15 wins (65.2%) and 6 losses (28.5%).

O’Day is on pace to pitch in 77 games.

Brian Matusz (relief only)

Matusz became a member of the Orioles bullpen on 8/24/12, and appeared in 18 games. That’s 47.3% of the 38 games he was available for. He threw in 14 wins (56.5%) and 4 losses (30.4%).

So far in 2013 Matusz has thrown in 21 games or 47.7%. He’s been in for 13 wins (56.5%) and 8 losses (38%).

Matusz is also on a 77 game pace.

The absence of Luis Ayala, the ineffectiveness of Pedro Strop, the inconsistency of Troy Patton and Tommy Hunter, and the inexperience of TJ McFarland has left Matusz, O’Day and Johnson to pick up most of the bullpen load when the Orioles are winning. The inability of the starters to pitch deep into games has left more innings to be picked up. And the lack of blowouts, for or against the Orioles, have led those 3 to be used in many more losses than they were last season too.

*Of last year’s 1483 innings pitched by the Orioles, 545.1 were covered by the bullpen. That’s 36.6%.

Of this year’s 385 innings pitched by the Orioles, the pen has covered 142.1. That’s 36.9%, or not much of a difference.

If there is a difference it’s that 60 of the Orioles bullpen innings last season were in extra frames. That’s 11%. This year 6 of the pen’s innings have been in extras. That’s just 4%.

In innings 1-9, the bullpen covered 34% in 2012 and is covering 37% of those innings in 2013.

All of this makes Buck Showalter’s decision to pull Freddy Garcia after just 66 pitches on Monday that much more curious as it led to 5 relievers and 76 pitches to cover innings 7-10.

For all of the talk of which Orioles the Orioles could least afford to lose, Matusz, Johnson and O’Day should probably be on the list ahead of Matt Wieters, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis or anyone else. More concerning it seems only a matter of time before one or more of these guys’ workloads cost them their health,

Last but not least, while no one is Mariano Rivera, it’s kind of interesting that baseball’s greatest closer has only pitched in 70 or more games 3 times in his career. In 2001 Rivera pitched 71 times and famously blew the World Series against the Diamondbacks. In 2004 her pitched in 74 games and then blew 3 post-season saves. And in 2005 he pitched 71 times and had 2 appearances in an unremarkable post season.

If the great Mariano was made mortal in seasons with 70 or more appearances, how much of Jim Johnson’s post-season struggles could we attribute to overuse? What might happen on his way to 81 appearances this season?

As the season is upon us, the Orioles are poised to repeat their 2012 performance.  But after a lackluster offseason by Dan Duquette, there are still several question marks on the Opening Day roster.  Baltimore was tops in the league in one run and extra innings games last year, but cannot not rely on repeating such efforts this year.

2012 also saw many roster moves, whether it being under-the-radar signings and trades or call-ups from the minors; something sure to be expected by the brain trust once again.  Though this team will not make big splash moves, there are pieces to improve upon the roster in 2013.  The following is a list of 4 moves the Orioles should make throughout the season.

Orioles trade Jim Johnson (CP) and Jason Hammel (SP) to the Rangers for Mike Olt (3B/1B), Craig Gentry (OF) and Martin Perez (SP).

Though Jim Johnson has been dominant the past two seasons, he is the Orioles biggest bargaining chip at this point.  Baltimore’s deep bullpen could provide a number of options for an in-house replacement including: Pedro Strop, Tommy Hunter and Luis Ayala.  Johnson is at his highest value now, and with the history of closers around the league, his reign in the ninth inning may have a dwindling shelf-life.

Jason Hammel is the Opening Day starter, but is not an ace of the staff by all means.  He is a solid pitcher, but after 4 straight seasons with over 170 innings, he began to wear down at the end of 2012.  The Orioles have a good amount of pitching depth, as hopes are that Zack Britton or Brian Matusz can bounce back (and take his spot in the rotation).  Hammel is also in the last year of his contract, and expendable in the future with Bundy and Gausman in waiting.

The Rangers play in the best division in baseball, with some pretty good lineups, where pitching will be at a premium (just think what Oakland did last year).  After failing to acquire a front of the line starter in the offseason, Hammel adds depth, while pitching in his more natural role, behind Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison.  Johnson should shut down the back end of games for Texas, especially with Nefalti Feliz’s move to the rotation and Joe Nathan’s age (38) creeping up on his production.

Olt is a top prospect but blocked at third base by Adrian Beltre.  The move would also clear a spot for the top prospect in the MLB, Jurkison Profar, at second base, as Ian Kinsler could be moved to LF (in replace of Craig Gentry).  Martin Perez recently broke his arm, an injury which may set him back to appearing in the big leagues on a regular basis.

In return the Orioles get two young pieces to build upon, in Olt and Perez, and a solution to the starting left field spot, as well as a possible leadoff hitter, with Gentry.  Olt is the prize of the trade, as he could be the future for Baltimore at third base, if the team inclines to move Manny Machado to shortstop.  Olt also adds more power to the lineup and a sorely needed middle-of-the-order bat.

Craig Gentry only had 240 at-bats in 2012 but did hit .304.  He also had 13 stolen bases last season (and 18 in 2011) in limited action.  He is a very good fielder, who can play all three outfield positions if need be.  Adding Gentry allows Buck flexibility in the lineup and the field, as Nate McLouth becomes the fourth outfielder (a role he is more suited for).  Adding Perez adds depth to a minor league system, which will see its top pitching prospects advance to the majors soon.

Baltimore Orioles trade Jake Arrieta (SP) to the Miami Marlins for Placido Polanco (3B/2B) and Jake Realmuto (C).

The Marlins are completely rebuilding, after failing on free agent spending spree in 2012.  Arrieta has enough potential to find a spot in a rotation that is filled with young pitchers with question marks.  This move also coincides with the Marlins cost cutting ways, as it clears over 5 million dollars off their payroll.

Like Hammel, Arrieta is expendable, with the depth of the rotation for the Orioles.  Though he has shown flashes of dominant stuff, his consistency makes him the odd man out for the near and distant future.  Acquiring a right handed bat for the bench, along with a veteran player and adding depth at several infield positions, Polanco fits Buck’s model of role player.

Baltimore also adds a catching prospect in Realmuto, who is defensively sound but needs time to develop at the plate.  Talks have already started about how long will Wieters last at catcher; with the wear and tear behind the plate (not to mention his size).  Realmuto (22) could be an eventual replacement for the catching duties for the Orioles, whenever they decide to move Wieters to another position (most likely first base or DH).

Baltimore Orioles trade Brian Roberts to Detroit Tigers for Alex Burgos (LHP), Matt Hoffman (RHP) and Tyler Collins (OF)

The Tigers are set to make another run at the World Series, and are willing to spend money to do so.  Roberts is in the last year of his contract and few people expect him to be back in Baltimore in 2014. Omar Infante is currently the Tigers starting second baseman but may be better suited as a super utility player.  Splitting time with Infante will also help the aging Roberts be more productive, when inserted into the lineup. This trade will be impendent on his health and what form he can return to, after the past two seasons spent mostly on the DL.

The Orioles receive prospects back for a player at the end of his career, which will continue to develop a growing farm season.  Burgos could become a fourth or fifth starter with some grooming, while Hoffman could make his way into the bullpen sooner than later, spending 2012 in Triple A.  Collins adds a left handed prospect, which is solid defensively and adds speed to the minor leagues.

Baltimore Orioles call up Kevin Gausman (SP) and Jonathon Schoop (2B/SS).

This move seems most likely with both players performing well in the minors last season, as well as 2013’s Spring Training.  Gausman could take over a rotation spot by the All-Star break, if he continues to develop as expected.  He may never be an ace of the staff, but is expected to be a really good No. 2 starter.   With the previous moves, shipping off two starters, Gausman will be expected to fill the void by the end of the season.

After finally moving on from Brian Roberts (and his contract), the Orioles will also have a roster spot for their second baseman of the future.  The pressure to perform immediately will not be as demanding, with the presence of Ryan Flaherty and Alexi Cassilla already on the roster and the addition of Polanco.  Schoop should take on the position full-time in 2014, with a revamped, younger infield.

***

After all these moves are complete, the Orioles not only have a deeper roster, but farm system as well.  The additions create the versatile bench that Buck likes to utilize, as well as sets the starting rotation for the next several years.  Baltimore will need to rely more heavily on their young players, but with a good mix of veteran backups, this team should develop into a consistent contender for years.

In the coming weeks, I will be doing a four part 2013 Orioles season preview in which I will tell you what you can expect from every player who played significant time for the Orioles or another team last season.  I will be dividing the series into starting pitchers, relief pitchers, infielders (and catchers), and this editions subject, the outfielders.  Hope you enjoy!

2013 Orioles Outfielders Preview 

Nate McLouth – McLouth was arguably the biggest surprise for the Orioles last season.  Starting the season at Norfolk (after having disappointing campaigns in Pittsburgh and Atlanta), McLouth was eventually brought up due to injuries to Nick Markakis and Nolan Reimold.  He had a solid season of 55 games for the team and was a huge part of the playoff run, even batting third and leadoff at some points in the season.  However, we’ve seen this type of production from Nate before, only to have a disappointing follow up season.  McLouth will have to fight for a starting job with Nolan Reimold this season in order to prove that he can be a consistent contributor.

Last season’s numbers (in 55 games):  .268 BA, 7 HR, 18 RBI

2013 Prediction: .262 BA, 16 HR, 70 RBI

Nick Markakis – It was frustrating watching Markakis sit on the bench during key games down the stretch and throughout the ALDS.  Knowing what a tremendous season Nick had had during the regular season filling in at the leadoff spot, will always have fans wondering what could have been if he had played during the playoffs.  Nonetheless, those injuries were rare instances (one being a cheap shot from C.C. Sabathia) and Markakis is expecting to play a full season even though he is dealing with a minor neck injury.  It remains to be seen where Markakis will bat in the lineup.  It all depends on what the Orioles can get out of Brian Roberts or Nolan Reimold at the leadoff spot. It is however, nice to know that Markakis can be a valuable fill in at that spot if needed.

Last season’s numbers (in 104 games): .298 BA, 13 HR, 54 RBI

2013 Prediction: .289 BA, 16 HR, 75 RBI

Nolan Reimold – Reimold played a mere 16 games last season but in that time showed the potential he has shown throughout his time in Baltimore.  It’s been injuries that have held Nolan back.  In those 16 games last season, Reimold was on a tear.  He was on pace for 45 homers and was batting .313.  Obviously no one expecting that kind of season from him but it would be nice to see what he can do in a full season.  If he can stay healthy, I expect him to take over the left field job at some point in the season.

Last season’s number (in 16 games): .313 BA, 5 HR, 10 RBI

2013 Prediction: .270 BA, 15 HR, 55 RBI

Xavier Avery – Avery was a pleasant surprise last season and filled in nicely during his short time in the big leagues.  He added some needed speed and base stealing prowess (stealing 6 bases) to a team devoid of both last year.  At only 23 years old, I don’t expect him to get much playing time this year unless the injury bug hits the Orioles again but it’s good to see such potential in a young player.

Last season’s numbers (in 32 games): .223, 1 HR, 6 RBI

2013 Prediction: .240, 2 HR, 15 RBI

Adam Jones – I guess this is the one you all have been waiting for.  After signing his long term deal last season, Adam went into a bit of a slump which carried into a postseason in which he had two hits and batted an abysmal .077.  However he had a stellar first half of the season which kept his numbers afloat throughout the season.  Let’s hope the post season let down and experience makes Adam “stay hungry” this year.  He is the face of the franchise now and he needs to be the leader both off the diamond and on it.  The biggest positive we can take from his 2012 season is that he played every single game.  You do not find that much anymore and that is huge impact no matter how you are playing.

Last season’s numbers (162 games): .287 BA (career high), 32 HR (career high), 82 RBI

2013 Prediction: .290 BA, 30 HR, 90 RBI

Check back next week when I preview the relief pitchers and in the meantime, listen to WNST’s Weekend Warriors every Saturday 9AM-12PM, like us on Facebook here, and follow me on Twitter here.

Everyone is up in arms in Baltimore by the Orioles lack of an offseason because they have not made the big move. Let’s get the facts straight though; they were never in on Zack Grienke, they will not make a play for Josh Hamilton and they did not have the pieces to acquire James Shields. But this team has severely dropped the ball this offseason; as the options to make an impact move is dwindling by each signing and trade.

It all started with the monster trade the Blue Jays pulled off; several of those players could have been valuable commodities to the Orioles. Reyes contract was too large for consideration but taking a proven top of the rotation pitcher like Josh Johnson or Mark Buehlre by offering some prospects (and willing to take on their contracts in full) should have been a priority. Even Emilio Bonifacio would have filled holes at either, Second Base or Left Field, as well as adding a good runner on the base path. That is the first mistake of the offseason.

I was a firm believer in Dan Haren, as the only top of the rotation pitcher available not with Grienke on the back of his jersey. The Nationals swooped him up for a $13 million contract for this season alone, which seems high but Haren is a boom or kind of good pitcher signing; either way he does have some value. He is going to eat innings and even coming off a down year, still had a winning record. The ball keeps slipping out of Duquette’s hands.

The Phillies acquired a good defensive outfielder with a lot of speed in Ben Revere for two pitchers (Vance Worley and Prospect, Trevor May); he is a player that could have filled out the defensive outfield. Now the Orioles are loaded at pitcher, with young starters available, a move to add a true leadoff hitter and Gold Glove caliber player was available for pennies on the dollar. Add in the move the Phils made to acquire Rangers stalwart, Michael Young, (who could have played first, second or DH) for a couple relief pitchers and the Phillies made the moves the Orioles could have to improve the roster. Whoops by the O’s for standing still, letting this happen in front of their face.

Finally, the Rays have really screwed the Orioles with their move to acquire Will Myers from the Royals in exchange for James Shields. The Royals will now be more than reluctant to move a Billy Butler or any bat in their lineup now that they gave up their future stud. This Orioles organization fumbles another sensible move for 2013.

Now the name, Justin Upton, has been mentioned but unless this team parts ways with either Bundy or Machado, that will not happen. The one player that seems to make sense right now is Asdrubal Cabrera; he is available and the Indians may be looking for young pitching and possibly adding in a prospect like Jonathon Schoop could get the deal done. Cabrera brings a great bat but also a excellent glove at Shortstop; a position a strength for the Orioles but moving around the infield would only enhance the defense. Hardy at Second Base is still an upgrade over anyone they will throw out there, while giving you Gold Glove caliber players at the three most difficult positions on the infield.
Let’s hope they don’t drop the ball on this one.

The Orioles had some success last season with their Rule 5 pick in INF Ryan Flaherty, and in Nashville, Baltimore Executive Vice President Dan Duquette felt like there were players that could make the team better in 2013.

With the 23rd selection in the Rule 5 draft, the Orioles selected 23-year old left-hander T.J. McFarland from the Cleveland Indians organization.

McFarland, a sinkerball pitcher and fourth-round pick in 2007, went 16-8 with a 4.03 ERA in starts between Double-A and Triple-A Columbus.

At the Triple-A level, he was 8-6 with a 4.82 ERA.

McFarland will be given a chance to compete for a starting spot in the Orioles rotation, and like Flaherty, he must be kept on Buck Showalter’s 25-man roster for the entire length of the season or be offered back to the Indians.

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Looking at this season, Baltimore fans realized how close this team really is to the World Series.  Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette did an excellent job of tweaking the roster all season, making minor moves that made a huge impact.  Players like Nate McLouth, Ryan Flaherty, Omar Quintanilla and even Jason Hammel were after-thoughts when the season began; each made their mark on the roster at some point during the season.

Everyone knows the free agency history of this team; Peter Angelos will be unlikely to dole out tons of money to big name players (thanks Albert Belle).  It is not probable that they will be in the sweepstakes for players like Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke.  So where does the team go to fill in holes at key positions to improve upon a fantastic year in 2012?  The most glaring needs after the playoff loss include: second base (with questions about Brian Roberts’ health), DH and/or first base (depending on the Mark Reynolds situation), speed on the base path and pitching depth (because there is never enough).

This is a list of 5 cost-effective options that the Orioles could string together to push this team to the next level:

5. Travis Hafner: DH (Cleveland Indians)

The Indians will not be picking up his option for $13 million and he should come relatively cheap for a big bat.  He would not be asked to play every day, which in turn should actually help his production.  Another big bat off the bench would really help this roster, as that was Duquette’s intentions for Thome in 2012.

4. Melky Cabrera: LF (San Francisco Giants)

After serving a 50 game suspension for PED use, Melky looks to be on the outs with the organization, not even being added to the postseason roster, even though he is eligible.  He was having an All-Star season, and led the NL in batting average (he technically could have won the batting title if he did not concede to teammate Buster Posey) before his ban.  He would fill a hole at the leadoff spot, allowing Markakis and Jones to bat behind him in their natural positions.  He is also a decent fielder in left and should help an improving defense.

3. Orlando Hudson: 2B (Chicago White Sox)

His best years are definitely behind him, as he will be 35 before the start of next season.  But he can still play defense at second base and does have above average speed.  If a bleak second base market, he is the best option that may be available.  He also has a lot of experience, which is an added bonus to such a young roster.  He is not the long term fix, but for a team looking to make the next step quickly, could be ideal for a season or two.  He does have a club option, so this will not be an option until the White Sox decide whether they want him back or not.

2. Adam LaRoche: 1B (Washington Nationals)

The Orioles actually made a strong push for him a couple seasons ago, but ended up with Derek Lee instead.  He is a great defensive first baseman, while he adds left handed power to the lineup.  The Nationals look like they have a logjam at first base, as it is Michael Morse’s natural position, so they may be inclined to not pick up LaRoche’s option.  Though his power is very similar to Mark Reynolds, he has a better ability to hit for average, a tool this team lacked all season.

1. Gavin Floyd: SP (Chicago White Sox)

Floyd is a local guy, who has been a workhorse for most of his career.  Though the starters played well above their means, he could be a welcome addition in the #2 starter role.  He has avoided the DL for most of his career, while pitching deep into games consistently; something Buck looks for in his rotation.  Bringing him in also gives the team an option of moving some of their other young pitchers (Britton, Arrieta) to build up the farm system.  It also keeps Matusz in the bullpen, where he seemed the most comfortable and use Steve Johnson as a fill-in starter and long relief.  In turn the entire pitching staff and farm system improves with one move.

Projected Lineup:

1. Melky Cabrera (LF)

2. Nick Markakis (RF)

3. Adam Jones (CF)

4. Adam LaRoche (1B)

5. Chris Davis (DH)

6. Matt Wieters (C)

7. Manny Machado (3B)

8. J.J. Hardy (SS)

9. Orlando Hudson (2B)

Projected Rotation:

1. Jason Hammel

2. Gavin Floyd

3. Miguel Gonzalez

4. Wei-Yin Chen

5. Chris Tillman

Tonight, the Orioles take on the Rangers in Arlington for their first playoff game since 1997. Buck announced his starter half way through the day on Thursday, as Joe Saunders takes the mound, in a win or go home matchup versus a team that has back-to-back World Series appearances.
This is all information that everyone from Southern, PA. to the Eastern Shore already know. But most do not know what kind of record the Orioles starter has going into this game at Rangers Ballpark. Though he has not pitched in Texas this season for Baltimore, he did spend the beginning of his career with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Southern California, West Coast, Wichita (sorry went off on a tangent there). Six times Saunders has headed to Arlington with the ball in his hand, his record: 0-6, 9.38 ERA.

Now the options are limited for this game and Saunders does have the most (aka the only) playoff experience of any starting pitcher on the roster, but this could one of the few mistakes Buck has made all season (and it could be a huge one). The Orioles really can only look to a couple pitchers for this game, as Chen pitched Monday and has struggled the last month. Gonzalez has come up big in big games all season, but pitched Tuesday and they haven’t thrown him out there on short rest at all in his rookie campaign. Tillman is out, pitching Wednesday night (where he did not look good at all) and Hammel is just coming off the DL, so Buck cannot risk his season on a balky knee.

So the Orioles are left with Joe Saunders or Steve Johnson; not the best way to go into what could be the last game of the season. Most would look at Saunders stats noted earlier and think Johnson was the no-brainer, but he has knee issues himself and is another guy they limited all season long as a rookie. But there is one more idea, a rare occurrence in MLB, but does happen several times each season; a bullpen game.

Everyone knows the bullpen has been not only the most consistent, but strongest part of this roster, virtually dominant all season. With the amount of young arms they have moved from starters, these kids can throw their arms out for two innings in the most important game for Baltimore in a decade and a half. Hunter has reached 100mph on the gun since moving to the bullpen, while Arrieta and Matusz have been definitively better not starting games and Johnson may be able to go if only asked to hold down the first inning or two. Add on guys like Patton, O’Day and Ayala, who have been nothing short of spectacular all season, and the bullpen has the best chance to win this game.

If those seven pitchers get through seven, with the lead or keeping it close, Bird land will be in good shape for some Orioles Magic. With the back end solidified by Jim Johnson, who in all reality could give Buck two innings if needed, a close game is a win for the O’s (especially if you look at the statistics or have just paid attention to this team this year). For those worried about wearing everyone out, any pitcher out their will only go once in three days, as the first game of the divisional round will not be until Sunday.

So only time will tell whether Buck has made the only major mistake of the season but this could be costly one.

If you are reading this, then you most likely already know my stance on the Orioles catcher. This is the last article I will write on the topic for this season; as I would like to clear the air with everyone who disagrees with me (which apparently from the responses, is about everyone anyway). I do believe Wieters is a good catcher, I do believe he has helped the Orioles and I do believe he is one of the many pieces that has propelled this team from (pardon my language) utter shit into a contender.

My personal thoughts may differ from the greater Baltimore/Maryland area, but moving on from him in the offseason could benefit this team a great deal looking into 2013 and beyond. I do not believe he is overrated nationally as he is probably the 5th best catcher in baseball, but here in Baltimore he is revered as the greatest thing since Ray Lewis; he is nowhere near that realm of respectability. I have heard he is the only untouchable on the Orioles roster, on more than 10 different occasions, which I find disrespectful to others on the roster especially the centerfielder.

While Wieters does have a gold glove and can hit for power, as he has certainly displayed over the past several weeks since my last article on him (basically throwing somewhat of a wrench in part of my argument), Adam Jones physically carried this team offensively all season. Look at Orioles.com or MLB.com or ESPN.com or anywhere else you get your baseball news, and it will all show the same exact thing; Jones leads the O’s in all major hitting categories.

This has been true all season long, with little protection in the lineup, as Markakis is now on his second major stint on the DL, Mark Reynolds did not come on until August and Wieters has spent 90% of the season below the .250 mark. Now Jones had his slumps over the season, but has been consistently the dominant factor in the heart of an otherwise underperforming lineup. He also leads all of the MLB with the most walk off hits this season; coming up big when it counts most. Jones too has a gold glove for a premium position; if anyone, he should be the only untouchable on the team, which the Orioles build their future around.

That is besides the point, as the idea of moving Wieters came about following one of the best organizations in baseball.  He is a classic catcher in the mold of a Charles Johnson (which I previously stated months ago); as he can do everything asked of his position well, but can you really say that a guy hitting .250 (which is by far his best since the beginning of the season) is really one of the best players in the league. He struggles at certain aspects of the game, but makes up for it as a smart, heady guy, with a good arm. That would be a very valuable asset for teams with most of their roster in place, looking for someone to put them over the edge; the Texas Rangers come to mind, as they have fallen just short two seasons in a row. Don’t you think they would pay handsomely for a guy like Wieters? With the team they have put together, not only in the majors but in the farm system, they could send some highly touted players to Baltimore for his services behind the plate. A realistic sample trade, which is fair to both teams includes:

Baltimore Orioles send Matt Wieters to the Texas Rangers.

Texas Rangers send LHP Derek Holland, 1B Mitch Moreland and OF Julio Bourbon to the Baltimore Orioles.

Both teams can improve problem areas without reaching beyond their means. The Orioles will obviously need to fill a hole behind the plate, but have a golden opportunity to fix several key issues with the roster for the foreseeable future. I understand that catcher is more valuable than any of those positions individually, but combined, if the Orioles get 2-3 young starters for several years, the thought has to cross Showalter and Duquette’s mind.

Now maybe nobody wants to give up enough to make it worth-while, but it never hurts to explore a trade. Moving Wieters now may change the Orioles to a consistent contender, similar to the move the Rangers made in 2007 to put themselves in their current position, amongst the league’s best. They sent Mark Teixeira to the Atlanta Braves for Elvis Andrus, Nefalti Feliz, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Beau Jones. Besides Jones, each of those players has made at least one All-Star appearance; each is 27 years old or younger. That is the type of haul that turned Texas from a possible playoff team, to back-to-back AL champions; that is the type of haul the Orioles could receive for Wieters from that very team.

I don’t think anyone would ask, “Is this a joke?” then. Or would they?

Now obviously, I understand this is a virtual impossibility at this point of the season with the trade and waiver deadlines already passed and the Orioles in a pennant race. But the fact still remains that Wieters is severely overrated in Baltimore by almost everyone including, Manager Buck Showalter. I am not going to pretend that I know more about baseball than the heads of the Orioles organization but out of any sport, baseball stats are the most relative to play on the field, which also display Weiters’ definitive struggles for someone supposed to be a face of the franchise.

My main point in the argument months ago was his lack of production at the plate; that has only gotten worse. His current batting average at .244 (all stats as of 9/11/12) ranks ninth among all catchers in the league. That doesn’t sound too bad but only 10 catchers have recorded enough At-Bats to factor into the statistic. Wieters average currently ranks 122nd among all Major Leaguers; not very impressive for a guy recently pushed into the cleanup role because of Nick Markakis’ injury.

Now to take look at the other side of the argument; I have heard how great he is defensively all season long; well that simply is not the case. Out of the 12 catchers that logged enough innings to qualify for Fielding Percentage, Wieters ranks dead last. He also leads the entire MLB with 10 errors on the season. And for those who say “nobody steals on Wieters,” he ranks only fourth among eligible catchers in Caught Stealing Percentage; trailing league leader Ryan Hanigan by over a full percentage point (.360 to .466 respectively).

The final argument I hear around Baltimore is how great he is at calling games for their young pitching staff. Well, if you take a look back to three seasons ago, the Orioles were supposed to have the 90’s Braves pitchers all coming up through the farm system at the same time. Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman and Troy Patton were all can’t miss prospects; going into next season, the organization is unsure if any will even be in the rotation. Patton is permanently in the pen and Matusz is on the fast track to join him. And Arrieta, Britton and Tillman cannot hold a roster spot in the big leagues; all being shuffled back and forth from AAA throughout the entire season.

Now a lot of their struggles are blamed on their own lack of development, but wasn’t Wieters a major part of that? Did he not come up through the minors with these young arms? I can understand giving him a pass if one or two did not pan out, but none have proven to be anything more than bullpen arms.

So here we stand, again, a few months later and I am still preaching the same thing; trade Matt Wieters. Now there is just more evidence of why he is not the building block to the future. The Orioles could pull in a hefty haul for teams close to a title but without a catcher, such as the Angels and Rangers, and need to exhaust all possibilities before next season.

Despite all of the advances made in the last couple of decades related to baseball statistics and their implementation into game philosophy, despite our ability to explain, predict and define the successes and failures that we see on a night by night basis in Major League Baseball the two most important aspects of baseball success remain impossible to predict or to quantify. Above and beyond all else, success in baseball is and always will be the result of luck and timing.

As Crash Davis taught us all in “Bull Durham” so many years ago, the difference between a .250 and .300 hitter in baseball is just one hit per week; “A Gork, you get a ground ball, you get a ground ball with eyes. You get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and you’re in Yankee Stadium”. With one hit per week being the difference between good and great, the timing of that hit and the circumstances surrounding it become increasingly important.

Of course Seneca, a Roman philosopher who never saw a game of baseball taught is that “Luck is where preparation meets opportunity”. By stacking a lineup full of players with quantifiable and predictable skills you can compel luck and over the course of 162 Major League games you can expect that by stacking the deck in your favor with talent you can also expect that luck to take hold at enough of the right times to be successful.

Still, every once in a while a team like the 2012 Orioles comes along and just throws a wrench into everything that we thought we “knew” about baseball. To call the Orioles lucky might be an understatement. Sure, there’s a heart and an intensity to the team that seems to make them successful, but whether that’s the precursor to their success or a byproduct of it is at the least debatable.

The Pythagorean crowd has already written off this team’s success as lucky and therefore impossible to continue. Maybe they’re right. Actually they’re probably right, but you could pick any other team in baseball that you want and deem them unlikely to win the World Series (or even to get there) and you’d probably be right.

Even the fans that have grown tired of hearing about the luck of the 2012 Orioles are at a true loss to explain their success. While suggesting that the Orioles success this year has simply been lucky is a disservice to those who have performed so well in making it so, explaining it as the byproduct of a manager “hitting all the right switches” is equally insulting. So why have Orioles fans grown so disdainful of anyone looking to explain away their success as lucky, yet so accepting of the notion that it’s Buck Showalter’s uncanny ability to manage the game as the driving force behind the Orioles success?

Of all of the major sports in America, baseball may be the one in which the impact of the manager is most minimal. And the brand of baseball typically played in the AL East only serves to further diminish the impact of the manager. Writing the lineup cards and choosing the pitchers is substantially more impactful than simply shuffling a deck of cards or rolling dice, but once those cards are stacked or those dice cast the manager’s impact is over and it’s up to the turns and bounces of the principals to determine the outcomes.

As the Orioles battle the Rays in an AL East showdown pitting a once improbable and now perennial contender against an unlikely contender of historical proportions it is and will be sold as a chess match of baseball’s grand masters. Buck Showalter and Joe Maddon seem to get the lion’s shares of the credit for their teams’ successes because otherwise we simply struggle to explain those successes. But do they deserve the credit they get? And at what point does that credit to the manager begin to wear on those actually doing the winning?