The NFL loves to lie to you.

They do it because they can. They do it to overshadow their inherent greed. And mostly, they do it because you continue to eat it up.

Joe Flacco is set to finalize a 6-year, $120.6 million contract with the Ravens this week, and we’re all still awaiting the details. There are however, a couple of details that we ought to know better than to accept at this point. The first is that the deal won’t be for 6-years, nor $120.6 million. Another is that when the “details” are announced the number that they throw out as “guaranteed” will be anything but guaranteed.

The NFL is a greedy league; there’s no way around that. They’re the same league that flaunted their $9+ billion revenue pie in our faces one year while negotiating their labor agreement and then locked out their referees over a tiny fraction of that money as they tried to break the officials union the next year.

In comparison to the NBA or Major League Baseball, there is no comparison. As the NFL reigns supreme in popularity and profitability they pay their players far less than their contemporaries and then fail to “guarantee” anything beyond a signing bonus. The league that chews up and spits out its talent quicker than any other is also shameless in its willingness to do so while sharing as little of the owner’s wealth as possible.

Shameless however is probably the wrong word. There has to be some shame involved, which is why they insist on lying to you, the consumer. Once a deal is agreed to, once the terms have been finalized between teams and players on contracts, the league that works so hard at spending so little, rushes to press to lie to you about how much money they’ve “committed” and what portion of that they’ve “guaranteed”.

And judging from the reaction to Joe Flacco’s contract, they do it because they can. The media has jumped all over the big numbers and the moniker of “highest paid”, the critics have weighed in on how the terms are sure to sink the Ravens yet no one has any idea how much money Joe will actually get…or when.

The Ravens did it to Cary Williams last year. They offered Williams a 3-year deal worth $15 million, and when he turned the offer down that information and those numbers mysteriously found their way to the press. To us, that sounds like $5 million per year, but we’ll never really know if it’s true. In NFL terms it could have been (and likely was) something more like $2 million in the first year, $3 million in the second, and $10 million in the third and final year of the deal, with a substantial likelihood that the contract would be terminated or renegotiated before that third year ever kicked in.

What we do know, or have heard, about Flacco’s deal is that he’ll have a lower cap number in 2013 than he did in 2012. That however hasn’t stopped folks from judging the contract through the prism of highest paid. It won’t stop the Ravens from selling it as such either as they celebrate their financial “commitment” to the QB who delivered a Super Bowl to Baltimore. And it surely won’t stop Flacco’s agent Joe Linta from using the words “most lucrative deal in NFL history” when trying to attract new clients. All of this despite the fact that we should all know much better by now.

We also know the Ravens choices were limited. They could have paid Flacco $20+ million under the exclusive franchise tag and seen every bit of that money reflected in their 2013 cap. They could have paid him $14 million in a non-exclusive franchise tag and allowed another team to negotiate the biggest and most important contract in franchise history on their behalf. Or, they could have let the first franchise QB in team history simply walk, to the highest bidder, with a couple of undetermined draft picks as compensation and prepared themselves to begin the process of grooming a QB all over again.

The Ravens made the best of a bad situation (or as bad a situation as you can have immediately after winning a Super Bowl), and for now at least they still appear poised to win.

The two sides will likely be back at the table in 2-years or so to move the money around and make the “greedy QB” look like the “Benevolent Bank of Flacco” as he helps the team remain cap solvent while piling money on top of his money. And now the team can sit back and relax as others react to the market that they created. Flacco, we know, will only be the “highest paid” player until the next guy comes up for negotiations. That’s now the Packers and Cowboys and Falcons and 49ers problem to deal with. Maybe that’s why fans have reacted so boisterously to a deal that has no bearing on their own teams, and in their words “will likely sink the Ravens”.

The Ravens and their fans find themselves in the awkward, yet fortunate, position of trying to celebrate the achievements of last year’s team for all that they accomplished, while also turning one eye toward the future and figuring out what types of adjustments will be necessary to remain competitive and to possibly make another Super Bowl run. So far, all of that talk has seemingly begun and ended with the speculation about Joe Flacco’s contract. Until that matter is resolved, the Ravens will have a tough time making any other decisions about their future, as the salary cap is wholly undetermined until that time.

Reflection on the convergence of circumstances that led to the Ravens improbable playoff run and Super Bowl victory would be difficult to believe if we hadn’t witnessed it with our own eyes. For all of the tremendous and heart wrenching storylines that unfolded around the team, it was a difficult decision made at a difficult time that seemed to have the biggest impact on the team’s ultimate success. Parting company with long time Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron, and replacing him with Quarterbacks Coach Jim Caldwell was likely the biggest of the numerous catalysts to the Ravens success.

Since that time, Cameron has probably shouldered an unfair amount of the blame. It’s tough to indict Cameron’s offense as the cause of all of the Ravens problems without at least giving him some credit for the foundation he built under those guys. And Caldwell has probably gotten an overstated amount of credit too. It’s unlikely that whatever it was that the Ravens were lacking under Cameron, was taught to them by Caldwell in just about 2 ½ weeks before crunch time was upon them. Make no mistake though, without the change being made, the season probably plays out much differently and the Ravens probably aren’t the Super Bowl champions.

What we have seen from the Caldwell led offense has been enough to have fans giddy with anticipation over what next year might be for this offense. It also has to have the Ravens concerned about the potential of their OC being a lame duck.

John Harbaugh’s ride as Ravens Head Coach has been an interesting one to say the least. As a former Special Teams Coordinator, Harbaugh is typically (and unfairly) seen as a master of neither offense nor defense. Therefore, when fans have praise or criticism to dole out on one side of the ball or the other, it usually bypasses the Head Coach and falls directly to his coordinators. This has been (mostly) a convenient position for Harbaugh.

One thing that can’t be denied is that Harbaugh’s confidence has outpaced his experience since his arrival in Baltimore and has been an essential part of his success as well. While most guys given head coaching opportunities, for the first time ever, at the NFL level have seemed to go out of their way to clear out any coaches from their supporting staff with NFL head coaching experience, Harbaugh has embraced these types.

In his first season as Head Coach, Harbaugh’s staff featured Cameron, vanquished from Miami, Jim Zorn, fresh off a head coaching stint with the Redskins, and Rex Ryan, with whom he competed for the Ravens top job. In business, top managers and CEOs have been called wise for embracing a willingness to surround themselves with people smarter than themselves in the areas that those people are hired to preside over. Harbaugh has done this at the NFL level and done it successfully. Welcoming Jim Caldwell as QB Coach last season was further evidence of that philosophy.

Another aspect of the Ravens success, one that precedes Harbaugh, on the defensive side of the ball has been the practice of promoting from within. The downside of dominant defense has been the tendency of other teams to scalp defensive coaches from the Ravens. The lineage of Ravens Defensive Coordinators, going back to Marvin Lewis, has always entailed replacing the departing coach with someone already on staff and already familiar with the language, tendencies and philosophies that made the last coach successful. The Ravens would do well to make that happen on the offense too. The question becomes whether or not that candidate is already on staff.

Make no mistake about it; with his influence over the Ravens post-season run, Jim Caldwell has made himself a hot commodity once again. It’d be fair to suggest that Caldwell is already at the top of most head coaching wish lists for 2014. Couple that with “Rooney Rule” requirements and the vocal disappointment of the league over no opportunities given to minority head coaches this year, and Caldwell is all but gone barring an offensive catastrophe for the Ravens in 2013.

So while the Ravens haven’t always felt compelled to have a QB coach on staff, it would seem imperative not only to find one for 2013, but moreover to find one that they’d feel comfortable grooming to succeed Caldwell when he likely rides off into the sunset for a head coaching gig after next season.

After deciding which players will be cut from the Ravens in order to clear cap room (as noted before: http://wnst.net/nfl/the-cut-list/), Ozzie Newsome will have more tough decisions on who can fit in the budget to resign. Needless to say this is the Wizards toughest offseason ever.

Everyone knows the big names that are impending free agents and everyone has their opinion on who is the top priority (well besides the Quarterback being No. 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 priorities). No matter who is resigned, there will be huge pieces to a championship run on a different roster next year.
This is my list of the Unrestricted Free Agent resignings for the Ravens (from most likely to least likely):

The “Bet on Yourself” Guarantee:

Joe Flacco (QB): The question is not if Joe will be back but for how much? Flacco could eat up a lot of cap room or all of it depending on where he thinks his market it at. Drew Brees contract is the starting point, whether it is more or less, is the multi-million dollar question.

The “Jersey Sales” Category:

Ed Reed (S): Reed’s decision will basically come down to his willingness to take a massive pay cut. He has spoken before about wanting to re-up his contract for one last pay day (namely the last two offseasons). In the end, a team, like New England (and man crushes Bill Belichick and Tom Brady) or Indianapolis (with his former Defensive Coordinator, Chuck Pagano at the helm), will offer him enough to leave Baltimore.

Paul Kruger (LB/DE): To break out in his contract year, Kruger earned himself a hefty payday at a position of need for every team. Someone is going to over extend for his potential to become an elite pass rusher; an offer the Ravens will not be able to match with so many others on this list.

The “Core of It” Category:

Danell Ellerbe (LB): With the retirement of Ray Lewis, and the possible cutting of Jameel McClain, Danell is probably the most important piece for Ozzie to bring back on the defense. He had an excellent 2012 campaign and could be the center piece for the linebacker core for years to come. If Flacco is priority 1-5, Ellerbe is 6; unless his price tag is a ridiculous number, Ellerbe will be back.

Cary Williams (CB): After having a rough start to the season, Williams had one of the better years for corners in the league. That should turn into lucrative contract offer from some team in need of help on the back end (which is a lot). Cary cashes in and replaced in the starting lineup by Lardarius Webb; not a too shabby consolation for Ozzie.

Bryant McKinnie (LT): This situation will be the most difficult and simply weirdest for the Ravens Front Office. Not starting until the playoffs, maybe sitting in Harbaugh’s” dog house,” McKinnie proved to be a valuable piece. His return all comes down to the loyalty to the team and how scorned he felt during the regular season. If he is back, he serves as stop gap until they can draft a Left Tackle anchor.

James Ihedigbo (S): His fate really relies on what is done with Ed Reed; as if Reed goes, the Ravens cannot afford to let him walk. He filled in nicely as a role player and is a good fit for the defense.

The “Rest (not coming back)” category:

Ma’ake Kemoeatu (DT)

Ryan McBean (DL)

Sean Considine (S)

Chris Johnson (CB)

Billy Bajema (TE)

Ricky Brown (LB)

Obviously when setting the tone for the Ravens’ off-season, everything takes a back seat to resolving the Joe Flacco contract situation. The importance thereof is only magnified by the realization that there are so many questions still to be answered, so many decisions still to be made; but until the Ravens know for sure what their quarterback’s financial future may hold, everything else is essentially on hold. That however doesn’t diminish the fact that there are important decisions outside the QB position to be made before the Ravens begin their title defense and prepare for the 2013 campaign.

Conceding that the importance of Flacco’s deal is paramount to everything else, here are the next 5 major points of consideration for the Ravens to deal with this off-season in order to have hopes of a 6^th straight post-season trip.

#1 – Suring Up the Left Tackle Situation

If Flacco was the biggest difference maker for the Ravens in the playoffs, then further investigation is merited in determining what helped him turn his season, and his reputation, around. For my money, it began with the offensive line. After a season in the proverbial “dog house” Bryant McKinnie was finally given a chance to show and prove, and from there the offense never seemed to look back.

In the lead up to the Broncos game, no one seemed to have any concerns about the Denver secondary. Hindsight might suggest that to have been a result of the constant quarterback pressure the Broncos were able to count on from Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. Without that pressure however, the Ravens found and readily exploited cracks in the Broncos secondary that no one seemed to know were there in the first place.

McKinnie and the Ravens began this season on unceremonious terms, and pretty much kept things that way until the end. Having proven his value, albeit over a 4-game stretch, there’s still no real assurance that the Ravens will or should trust McKinneie enough to agree to terms on a multi-year deal. On the other side of that coin, there’s no good reason to think McKinnie will feel any special brand of loyalty to the Ravens when others come calling on the open market.

What’s undeniable about the whole episode is that by replacing Michael Oher with McKinnie at LT, the Ravens were able to move Oher to his natural RT position where he represented an improvement over Kelechi Osemele. Osemele then moved to the LG position that the Ravens struggled to find an answer for all season too. This three-fold improvement made the Ravens line exponentially better; and no matter how they address LT going forward, any “solution” involving moving Oher and Osemele back to the positions they played for the majority of 2012 has to be considered multiple steps backward.

#2 – Replacing Jim Caldwell

Continuing with the theme of what was different for the Ravens offense at the end, the departure of Cam Cameron and the elevation of Jim Caldwell to the offensive coordinator position would seem to be the other major factor. The performance of Caldwell’s offense has been celebrated widely within the fan base, and certainly hasn’t been lost on the league at large either.

In an off-season where everyone seems dissatisfied with the impact of the Rooney Rule and the lack of minority hires made in filling head coaching vacancies, Caldwell will all but surely be a hot head coaching candidate at the end of next season. Even getting to the Super Bowl again, and therefore delaying the process for teams interested in Caldwell might not be enough to slow his roll.

In what looks to be a lame duck season for Caldwell with the Ravens, it’s important to figure out if the next guy in line is someone already on staff, or how the team can look to groom a next guy in line, potentially by hiring him as a quarterback coach / OC in waiting.

With the Celebration over (almost), and the reigning Champs set to begin their offseason, the Baltimore Ravens will have some difficult decisions to make.    There are plenty of free agents to decide on their fate with the team, namely the QB, but with limited cap room, money will need to be cleared to keep the Super Bowl core intact.

Before the Ravens consider resigning their own free agents, let alone look at others out on the market, there is going to be players cut from the roster.  Ozzie Newsome has been a master of rewarding his own, but to do so, others will pay the sacrifice.

Compiled is the list of possible players set to be cut for cap room (from least likely to most likely):

The “What are my chances 1 in a 100?

 More like 1 in a million…

So you say there is a chance!?” category

Haloti Ngata: Ngata suffered a lot of injuries in 2012 and concerns are his ability to stay healthy in the coming seasons.  The problem is the team will actually lose money in 2013 if he were to be released, so he will be back next year.

Terrell Suggs: He is another star with injury concerns and a big cap number in 2013. The team will only gain less than $2 Million in room if let go; besides with Ray Lewis’ retirement and Ed Reed’s impending free agency, the defense needs a leader. Back in Black (and Purple) next season.

The Tough Decisions

Anquan Boldin: He costs $6 Million against the cap but adamantly wants to stay with the Ravens.  As a new centerpiece to the offense since Jim Caldwell took over, no other player, not named Joe Flacco, was more important in the Super Bowl run.  Ravens will most likely restructure his contract but there is still a chance they will need the financial flexibility.

Jacoby Jones: He was a playmaking machine in the playoffs and the best kick returner in the league.  He was explosive as a receiver but his 30 catches might not warrant his pay check.  The life span of elite returners is short as well, making it difficult to keep him around at his number.

Jameel McClain: After losing the greatest MLB of all time, losing McClain would drastically hurt the depth of the linebacker core.  But he is coming of an injury (and unsure of when he will be able to return), and could clear a couple million to sign some of the young guys (cough Ellerbe cough cough).

The Southwest Airlines Category

Brendan Ayenbadejo: Losing him will hurt the special teams and depth to MLB but he is in the late Fall of his career.  Ayenbadejo is a contributor but nothing more than a mediocre fill in, at best, on the defense.  It would be money well spent to use some of his salary towards one of the impending free agents.

Vonta Leach: As an All-Pro (and the best player at his position in the league), it seems blasphemy to see him go.  The problem is the Fullback is a dying breed and could be replaced with a late draft pick or undrafted free agent. His contract is too large to keep him around; Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce weep.

While the draft is 70 plus days away it’s never too early to predict what player the Ravens could draft in the first round. The Ravens have many needs so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ozzie Newsome trade out of the first round like he has done so many times before.

Here are several players that I think the Ravens will have the opportunity to draft in the first round.

Manti Te’o: linebacker, Notre Dame.
What a season for Te’o. He had a career year and was a Heisman finalist. But as we all know, his draft stock has collapsed because of the fake girlfriend hoax and his poor performance in the national championship.

It would be difficult to see Te’o falling all the way to pick 32. Pittsburgh has the 17th pick in the draft and the Steelers have a need at inside linebacker. Other teams in the 20’s that have a need at inside linebacker include the Chicago Bears at 20, the Bengals at 21, and the Packers at 26.

If none of these teams select Te’o, the possibility of Te’o suiting up for the Ravens in 2013 is a real possibility.

Like all draft prospects with character issues, Te’o could be a good fit with the Ravens because of the leadership within the locker room.

Arthur Brown: linebacker, Kansas State.
Brown is one of the more versatile defenders in this draft. Despite his size – 6’1” 228 pounds – Brown is a complete linebacker with exceptional speed. Obviously, that speed translates to his pass coverage ability, which is above average.

Brown would be a good fit because his speed allows him to run sideline-to-sideline and make plays. If the Ravens lose their best coverage linebacker, Dannell Ellerbe to free agency, Brown’s pass coverage ability would become that much more valuable.

Tavon Austin: wide receiver, West Virginia.
If you are going to pay Joe Flacco, why not give him toys to play with? Austin is the ultimate weapon because he can play multiple roles in an offense.

Austin is a poor man’s Percy Harvin. He did a little bit of everything at West Virginia, including contributions on special teams. Austin would make the Ravens offense much more versatile, and would be a much more attractive option to the Ravens if Anquan Boldin is cut.

Kevin Minter: linebacker, LSU
Minter is one of my favorite players in the draft. While he lacks elite athleticism, he is adequate in pass coverage and excels against the run.

The Chick-fil-A Bowl against Clemson is what pushed Minter into a first round projection. Minter finished with 19 total tackles and when he wasn’t making a tackle, he was somewhere around the ball.

Minter would be a great fit for the Ravens but with so many teams having a need at inside linebacker, Minter might not make it to pick 32 in the first round.

Ray Lewis has the story book ending to his career, with a Super Bowl victory in one wild “ride;” but to get things straight, this run has not been about Ray. Though he is the greatest player in team history, the victory was more about the other players, the other story lines, the other coaches out there for the Ravens. Lewis obviously gained the national attention because of his demeanor, as we have seen with most of his career, whether it be good or bad. But now he is stepping away and the other impact personnel should be recognized.

Two players that really come to mind; Ed Reed and Torrey Smith. Both suffered the tragic deaths of their brothers in the past 18 months but powered through the emotional back lash. Reed went out and played every game since the incident, and played at a pretty high level as well. Now this may have been his last game as a Raven, adding into the praise the future Hall of Famer earned along the way.

The utmost respect goes out to Torrey Smith though, as he essentially had the game of his career, against the Patriots in Week 3, just hours after receiving news of his brothers motorcycle accident. Smith has grown into not just an outstanding player, but human being as well. His mental toughness played a big role in getting the Ravens to New Orleans.

Many other veterans along the roster deserve credit for their performances and drive to lead to the ultimate victory. Lewis already has his ring and fate was sealed as an all-time great a long time ago, but Anquan Boldin and Matt Birk are players still writing their legacy. Boldin has been the most important player on the roster not named Flacco the past couple months.

As the big name free agent three years ago, he was supposed to be the center of the passing game, after his illustrious career in Arizona. Cam Cameron never used him as such, but never did we hear complaints from a player whose Hall of Fame career was derailed by the past versions of the Ravens offense. Boldin has always put this team first, and when given the opportunity to take on a leadership role on and off the field, he took full advantage of it the year. As being on the losing end of a previous Super Bowl, Boldin was crucial to this team keeping calm during such a difficult season long run.

Matt Birk is a former All-Pro, which has never smelled the Super Bowl throughout most of his career before coming to Baltimore. After being one of the most underrated players in the league, Birk, like Lewis, will end his career as a champion. He may never make his way to Canton, but for a stand up individual, who led as a professional, nothing could be a better send off.

Now to the two people that made the biggest impact on the Ravens Super Bowl march all season long; the Quarterback and the Head Coach. To start Flacco had to establish himself for this team to make the next step and did he ever. Having one of, if not the best, postseasons by a QB in NFL history puts Flacco into a different stratosphere. Sure he has some inconsistency but his career path follows the mold of Eli Manning, which has proven to be pretty damn good. The Ravens will not let him go, and with Lewis moving on, it was at the utmost importance for Joe to make it his team.

As far as the Head Coach, John Harbaugh proved to best the laundry list of excellent competitors in his way. Starting with the emotional game against the Chuck Pagano led Colts, out dueling Peyton Manning and John Fox, then taking it to Bill Belicheck and Tom Brady, Harbaugh proved to make a big name for himself in a “Super” way (I know that’s cliché). No other individual deserves more credit than Harbaugh, who stared down every challenge this season (and there were a lot) and came out the victor. Whether it was personnel changes, staff changes, holding an injury riddled roster together, or making crucial in game decisions, the Ravens Head Coach was simply phenomenal.

So congratulations to the Ravens, who defied all the expectations (including my own) and became World Champions as a team. It is nice that a G.O.A.T. like Ray Lewis could walk off into the sunset with a ring, but this game was so much more than that. The sexy headlines only tell a small portion of the 2012-2013 Baltimore Ravens.

Everyone is an expert these days. Every network has a panel of “experts” willing to offer their two-cents worth of analysis and prediction on who win the Super Bowl. When I was a kid growing up during the single-digit Super Bowl era, there was just one expert, Jimmy “The Greek” Synder.

Over the past few years (YouTube era), there have been various animals whose handlers attempt to become famous with a correct prognostication of NFL’s big game. Here are my favorites for this year’s match-up between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers.

Jimmy Fallon Puppy Predictors

Teddy Bear the talking porcupine

NFL Network’s Jamie Dukes on July 3rd, that’s correct, JULY!

On Saturday, the eve of Super Bowl XLVII RAVENS FEVER HITS LAUREL PARK. The Laurel Park racing office showed its support for the Baltimore Ravens by naming the first six races on Saturday’s card with a Ravens-related theme…

The T Sizzle (race 1)
Heydiddlediddle, Rice up the Middle (race 2)
Wacco for Flacco (race 3)
Ray’s Last Ride (race 4)
Ed Reed’s Two Tickets to Paradise (race 5)
Go Ravens Purple Pride (race 6)

For the last three weeks, the virtual finish line on Laurel Park’s simulcast signal has featured a “Go Ravens” logo.

Also on Saturday the national horse racing spotlight will be on Florida, New York and California as Kentucky Derby prep graded stakes races are on tap at Tampa Downs (FL), Aqueduct (NY) and Santa Anita (CA). Of the three, the (Withers Stakes) race in New York may have the least impact on the Derby picture.

Let me explain. The powers-to-be at Churchill Downs Inc. (CDI) developed a new “Derby Point System” that will determine the pecking order as to which colts, geldings and/or fillies are given the chance to “Run For The Roses”, if more than 20 are entered in the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby. This “system” anointed specific races where points would be awarded to the first, second, third or fourth place finishers. Of the 3 traditional prep races run this weekend, only the Sam F. Davis (@ Tampa) and Robert B. Lewis (@ Santa Anita) are designated “point system” races. Therefore, one would think these two races would attract the most interest, leaving the Withers to play second (or in this case third) fiddle. Not quite, eight (8) are scheduled to run in the Withers, while the Robert B. Lewis only attracted four (4) Go figure?!

First up will be the $200k G3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, race 9 (Post Time 4:18pm EST) on the card at 1 1/16 miles over the inner dirt course. The prohibitive Morning Line favorite is #2 – Revolutionary (3-5) who broke his maiden by 8½ lengths in his fourth career start. On paper this Todd Pletcher trainee appears to be a standout, but we know races aren’t run on paper, so he’ll need to turn back 7 rivals on the track. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin will start a pair of talented colts #1 – Long River and entrymate #1A – Valid (7-2 M/L). The former ran 4th in the G2 Jerome last out while the latter was broke his maiden at Laurel Park in a convincing manner on last day of 2012. Other contenders here are #3 – Escapefromreality (6-1) will be the likely pacesetter as he stretches out to two-turns from two career sprints; #4 – Amerigo Vespucci (15-1) still looking for respect after getting SHOW purse money at 39-1 in the Count Fleet Stakes as is #5 – Siete de Oros (8-1) who at 41-1 lost to Vyjack by a head in the G2 Jerome on Jan. 5th.

WITHERS PLAY: $10 WIN / PLACE #1/1A Entry and $2 Exacta box 1-2-4

Next up at Santa Anita is the $200k G2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, contested at 1 1/16 miles, the 4th race on the card. Post Time is set for5:03pm EDT. Really?! Only 4 horses… really?! Hard to believe with all the so-called Derby candidates on the west coast, this race came up so short. Even more pathetic, only 2 horses were nominated by the Jan. 24th deadline. Only one of them was entered, #2 – Flashback (9-5). Trainer Bob Baffert always has his horses Road to the Roses well mapped out. So my thoughts are this son of Tapit has been prepping for for the Lewis since winning his career debut on Dec. 8th. I envision a gate-to-wire victory. Looming the biggest threat is #4 – He’s Had Enough (7-5) for the connections who sent out I’ll Have Enough. Both #1 – Little Jerry (8-1) and #3 – Den’s Legacy (4-1) will fight it out for the minor shares and points.

ROBERT B. LEWIS PLAY: $30 WIN #2

Lastly on Saturday is the $200k G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Downs,11th race on the card, Post Time 5:23pm EST). The 9-5 Morning Line favorite is the Mark Casse entry of #1 – Northern Lion and #1A Dynamic Sky. The latter won the $100k Pasco Stakes over this course on Jan. 12th. His stablemate exits a 5½ length maiden score at Gulfstream Park travelling today’s distance of 1 1/16 miles. Other of note are #4 – My Name Is Michael (4-1) recently turned over to the capable hands of Graham Motion after 4 lifetime starts over the synthetic surface at Woodbine; #5 – Speak Logistics (3-1) last seen finishing 7th in the G1 BC Juvenile last November and #8 – Falling Sky (5-1) who was purchased for $425k this month, after ending his 2 year old campaign with a victory in a tough Optional Claimer at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 15th. The rest of the field comprises of 3 Also-Rans from the Pasco Stakes, a Nick Zito maiden winner at Tampa and a turf winner who broke his maiden in a $12,500 Claiming race.

SAM F. DAVIS PLAY: $10 WIN / PLACE #8 and $1 Trifecta P/W 4,5, 8, 9 w/ 1 w/ 4, 5, 8, 9

——————————————————————————————————–

Recapping the previously posted pathetic selections at Laurel Park from Saturday, Jan. 26th had just 4 winners from 9 races (2 Top Selection; pay-offs shown in BOLD type) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.40 (2nd), $4.60 (6th), $3.60 (8th) and $6.40 (9th).

The BEST BET of the Day (5 0-0-0) Ciguaraya (4-1 PT; 5-1 M/L) raced 4-wide in the early stages, loomed a serious threat while being asked at the 5/16th pole, but was unable to sustain that drive, flattened out and finished 5th of 10.

The LONGSHOT PICK (5 0-0-1) Mister Dish (7-1 PT; 8-1 M/L) was unhurried early but then moved into contention, splitting foes and looked like a threat at the head of the stretch, but flattened out in the final furlong, salvaging 3rd place purse money, returning $4.80 to SHOW.

For Saturday races the weather forecast calls for Sunny skies with no chance of precipitation, meaning the track will be FAST at Laurel Park on Saturday Feb. 2nd . Selections for all races posted were handicapped based on making multi-race wagers such as DOUBLE’s, Pick-3’s and Pick-4’s using all three (3) listed for each race in each leg.

1st race – $10,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. – 5½ furlongs
#5 – Dublin Gulch (6-1)
#1A – Whatsthequestion (2-5) note: POE #1 – Light of My Life *** SCRATCHED ***
#4 – Mountain Bird Song (8-1)

2nd race – $5,000 Claiming for 4 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#5 – Flavor (9-2)
#3 – Ninety Five South (8-1)
#2 – It’s Never Too Late (2-1)

3rd race – $15,000 Claiming for F&M 4 y.o. & up – 5½ furlongs
#4 – Monster Sleeping (5-1)
#1 – Vicarious Won (8-5)
#7 – Changingoftheguard (6-1)

4th race – $14,000 Claiming for 4 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#1 – Dinny Dinosaur (10-1) $$$ LONGSHOT $$$
#6 – Lemon Juice (8-1)
#2 – Azicharmyou (5-1)

5th race – $5,000 Claiming N2L for F&M 4 y.o. & up – 7 furlongs
#4 – Miss Bad Girl (7-5)
#1 – Sicut Quercus (5-1)
#8 – Brightlingsea (4-1)

6th race – $50,000 Optional Claiming for 3 y.o. fillies – 1 mile
#4 – Seven Stars (5-2)
#3 – Majestic Marquet (2-1)
#7 – Sea Lady (10-1)

7th race – $25,000 Claiming N2L for F&M 4 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#1 – Jim the Dancer (9-5)
#4 – Mendassity (3-1)
#8 – Lady Geegee (9-2)

8th race – $125,000 Wide Country Stakes for 3 y.o. fillies – 7 furlongs
#5 – Walkwithapurpose (5-2) *** BEST BET ***
#1 – Dear to All (2-1)
#7 – Power Lady (7-2)

9th race – $5,000 Claiming N2L for F&M 4 y.o. & up – 7 furlongs
#3 – Friendly Princess (5-1)
#7 – Smoky Opal (6-5)
#1 – Saratoga Notes (10-1)

GOOD LUCK!

Reggie Jackson was Mr. October.  The Yankees even had Mr. November in Derek Jeter.  Those guys won championships in the fall months and bolstered their Hall of Fame credentials along the way.  The Baltimore Ravens have “Joe January”.  Joe Flacco has proven himself to be quite the performer once old calenders start getting pulled off the wall.  Every game hasn’t been the most aesthetically pleasing, but more often than not, Joe has proven to be as good as any quarterback in the league come playoff time.  And Sunday in New Orleans, he could morph into “February Flacco”.

Joe Flacco is whatever you want him to be now.  He’s clutch.  This postseason, the Ravens Super Bowl aspirations went from “pipe-dream” to “team of destiny” in the time it took a throw to travel 60-some yards from Flacco’s right hand to the waiting arms of Jacoby Jones two weeks ago in frigid Denver.

He can put the team on his back.  Last week, Flacco starred during a white-hot second half on a field where many playoff dreams have died over the last decade plus.

He’s tough.  He has taken every meaningful snap since opening day his rookie year.  Eighty regular season games.  Twelve (about to be 13) post-season starts.  Not for one play has the man needed to come off the field.

He’s cool.  You want a fiery type behind center?  Be my guest.  I’ll take the Unitas type.  The same demeanor, win or lose.

It doesn’t have to be all about Joe either.  Some quarterbacks want to be the center of the universe.  Tom Brady and Drew Brees come to mind.  Flacco can be the hero, as in Denver, or let someone else handle the load (see 4th and 29).

I’ve heard some pretty telling commentary on the Baltimore signal caller.  I’ve heard how Joe made Andrew Luck look like an over-matched rookie in the first round while making Peyton Manning seem like an over-the-hill veteran that couldn’t keep pace in Denver.  You could say he did the same last week in New England.

To me, Joe is now a seasoned veteran poised to take a giant step toward greatness.   His numbers aren’t always gaudy but his record sure is.  Do you know the Ravens would have to lose 28 straight games to drop Flacco to a .500 quarterback as a starter in the regular season?  Add another four straight in the playoffs.

Should the Ravens win in New Orleans on Sunday, Flacco will achieve greatest honor bestowed on NFL quarterbacks.  Super Bowl Winner.  Today’s “greats” all have that one thing in common.  They won the Super Bowl.  Aaron Rogers, Peyton, Eli, Brady, Roethlisberger and Brees all have that feather in their cap.  Everyone else is second tier.

A win Sunday would cement Flacco’s spot in the Ravens Ring of Honor.  And it would, in my opinion, complete the foundation on what could become a Hall of Fame career.  Yeah, I said it.  Seems odd but think about it.  He’s in his 5th year.  It’s not hard to picture him making another appearance or two (or more) in the Super Bowl.  If he only adds 17,633 future yards to the 17,633 yards he’s already amassed, he’d be listed 17th all-time.  Add three more decent seasons to that number, and he’d be top 10 all-time.

As for the rest of the Ravens, they certainly appear poised to give it their best shot come Sunday.  They are as healthy as you can be at this point.  They have a clear rallying point.  They are hot.  They have some Super Bowl experience.  I think the Ravens have slightly better players on offense than the 49ers.  I think the Ravens have slightly better special teams units (certainly a more stable kicker at this point).  Defensively, both teams are loaded.  I like both Harbaugh’s but Jim can act like a nut.  I could see him losing control in a game this big.  And I like the intangibles the Ravens bring to the game.  And I like the Ravens holding on to win 24-17.

Nuff Said! GO RAVENS!!! OH-OH OH OH OH OH OH OH-OH!