Tag Archive | "Chris Davis"

britton

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Numbers behind Orioles’ 6-5 win over Tampa Bay

Posted on 08 April 2015 by Luke Jones

A 6-0 lead through two innings typically leads to a relaxing night of baseball, but it was anything but that for the Orioles Tuesday as they held on for dear life in an eventual 6-5 victory against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Despite being staked to the early lead, starter Wei-Yin Chen struggled his way through 4 1/3 innings as his fastball velocity was down and he lacked his normal crispness with his off-speed pitches. Kevin Gausman worked 2 1/3 innings in relief to earn the victory, but the right-hander allowed a two-run shot off the bat of Kevin Kiermaier in the sixth to make it a one-run game.

Instead of a night in cruise control for the Orioles, the pitching staff consistently found deep counts and needed a whopping 176 pitches to secure the victory, including a combined 42 from Darren O’Day and Zach Britton. With O’Day (24 combined pitches) and Britton (42 total pitches) having pitched in each of the first two games and potentially unavailable for the series finale, the Orioles will need a strong outing from No. 3 starter Miguel Gonzalez.

Fortunately, Baltimore will receive a day off to rest up before the home opener at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Friday afternoon.

* One of the biggest questions facing Steve Pearce in his quest to prove his 2014 campaign wasn’t a fluke will be whether he can sustain the success against right-handed pitching that he found a year ago.

The soon-to-be 32-year-old owns an underwhelming career .700 on-base slugging percentage against right-handers, but that’s including his .856 mark in 272 plate appearances last year. Pearce has always hit southpaw pitching well (a career .878 OPS), which is the main reason why major league clubs continued to give him opportunities despite a reputation as a “Quad-A” player over his first eight major league seasons.

The all-too-early verdict in 2015 has been encouraging to say the least as Pearce has clubbed two homers against right-handed pitching in two games.

It’s remarkable to think how important Pearce has become to this club after he was designated for assignment less than 12 months ago.

* When he acquired outfielder Travis Snider from Pittsburgh in late January, executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette cited his strong second half in 2014 as a sign that the former first-round pick had finally begun realizing his potential.

After the All-Star break last year, the former Pirate posted an .880 OPS with nine homers and 24 RBIs. Small sample size alert aside, Snider has reached base in seven of eight trips to the plate and already has three RBIs in two games.

The Orioles hope Snider is just hitting his stride at age 27 and can give them good production this season for a fraction of what Nick Markakis commanded in free agency.

So far, so good.

* You think Chris Davis was eager to make his 2015 debut and play in his first real game since Sept. 10, 2014?

Serving as the designated hitter on Tuesday, Davis swung at six of the first seven pitches he saw in his first two at-bats and appeared too anxious early in the game. However, his best at-bat came in the eighth when he flied to deep right after a nine-pitch encounter with Rays right-hander Kevin Jepsen.

Davis finished 0-for-3 and was hit by a pitch in the sixth inning.

It goes without saying how critical a bounce-back season from Davis would be in replacing the power production left behind by Nelson Cruz. And it’s even more critical for the 29-year-old’s future as he’s set to become a free agent this coming offseason.

* The Orioles collected six runs and five hits over the first two innings against Tampa Bay starter Nathan Karns, but Everth Cabrera had their only hit the rest of the way as he collected a single in the top of the seventh.

Yes, the pitching staff should have been better in minimizing stress after an early six-run lead, but the offense essentially checked out after Pearce’s two-run homer in the second.

 

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webb

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Orioles designate Webb for assignment, promote Lavarnway

Posted on 06 April 2015 by Luke Jones

The Orioles wasted no time in altering their first 25-man roster of the 2015 season by designating right-handed pitcher Ryan Webb for assignment and promoting catcher Ryan Lavarnway hours before their season opener on Monday.

It was clear the Orioles would need to make a change after initially keeping 14 pitchers on their roster Sunday, but they have been unable to find a trade partner for Webb, who is guaranteed a $2.75 million and has already refused an assignment to Triple-A Norfolk as a player with more than five years of major league service time. The 29-year-old cleared waivers last week, making it all but guaranteed that the Orioles will now need to eat his salary.

Baltimore selected Lavarnway’s contract after initially reassigning him to minor-league camp on Sunday. The move signals that manager Buck Showalter likely envisions the former Boston Red Sox product as the club’s backup behind Caleb Joseph while three-time All-Star selection Matt Wieters continues to rehab his surgically-repaired elbow.

Needing to activate first baseman Chris Davis from the suspended list on Tuesday, the Orioles appear likely to send catcher Steve Clevenger to Triple-A Norfolk since he has a remaining minor-league option if Showalter wants to keep 13 pitchers for the time being.

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machado

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Five things that must go right for 2015 Orioles

Posted on 02 April 2015 by Luke Jones

It’s funny how we annually try to pinpoint absolutes in assessing what must go right or what cannot go wrong for the Orioles to have a successful season.

There are very few absolutes on which you can count over the course of a 162-game schedule. Look no further than last year to realize just how true that can be.

You might have predicted last spring that nearly everything needed to go right for the Orioles to win their first American League East title in 17 years. Instead, they endured the absence of All-Star catcher Matt Wieters for most of the year, another season-ending knee injury to Gold Glove third baseman Manny Machado, and an abysmal campaign from 2013 home run king Chris Davis that ended with a 25-man suspension for Adderall use.

If given a preview of only those subplots last spring, you would have been more inclined to predict a 96-loss campaign as opposed to 96 victories and winning the division by a dozen games.

You just never know and that’s what makes it fun, as manager Buck Showalter would say.

With that reality in mind, below is a stab at five things that must go right for the Orioles in 2015:

1. Starting pitchers continue to outperform their metrics

It’s no secret that many statheads and projections haven’t liked the Orioles over the last three years and for good reason. They haven’t looked the part of other winners in the 21st century as they hit home runs but don’t get on base at a high rate and their pitching doesn’t rely on the strikeout, which is one of the most expensive commodities in the game.

But where the Orioles excelled in 2014 was a starting rotation that took advantage of an exceptional defense behind it. Starters didn’t strike many out (11th in the AL) and walked too many (fourth-most in the AL) — the intense struggles of Ubaldo Jimenez certainly skewed the latter ranking — but pitching coach Dave Wallace preaches to his pitchers to trust their defense, which they did with great success as the season progressed.

After the All-Star break, the Orioles posted a starter ERA of 2.98 after a 4.09 mark in the season’s first half. Their starter strikeout numbers even improved from 6.5 to 7.4 per nine innings pitched.

Many are predicting a market correction for the Orioles pitching after they ranked third in the AL in ERA but only 11th in fielding independent pitching (FIP), which eliminates factors a pitcher can’t control such as his defense. The good news is Baltimore starters figure to once again have Gold Glove-caliber fielders behind them.

The starting pitching continuing to find success is the single-most important factor needed for the Orioles to not only preserve the bullpen for the later months but to contend for another playoff berth.

2. Manny Machado takes a (healthy) step forward

The questions about Wieters’ health will likely linger for much of the season, but the Orioles proved they could win without their All-Star catcher last season and Caleb Joseph has shown an ability to handle himself well from a defensive standpoint. Machado possesses the highest upside of any player in a lineup needing to replace Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis.

He’s already proven himself to be a Gold Glove defensive player, but his 68 extra-base hits in his first full season in the majors as a 20-year-old suggest the sky is the limit in terms of offensive potential. You have to chalk up 2014 as a lost year considering he was still working his way back from the first knee injury and went down again when he was finally hitting his stride at the plate in the second half.

Unlike Wieters, Machado’s health hasn’t been an issue all spring as he’s running better than ever with two healthy knees and has benefited from his first full spring since 2013. Yes, you have to hold your breath that health won’t again become a concern, but there have been no reservations so far.

Beyond staying in the lineup, Machado taking a step forward with the bat would go a long way in quelling any concerns about Baltimore’s offensive potential. He doesn’t need to put up MVP-caliber numbers, but many facets of his game hint that it’s possible in the future if he can stay healthy.

3. Steve Pearce proves he isn’t a one-year wonder

In watching Cruz and Markakis depart via free agency, the Orioles are clearly counting on the best story of the 2014 season to provide a productive sequel in his first full year as a regular. Many spent the winter trying to explain Pearce’s breakthrough at age 31, with explanations ranging from better health and finally receiving an extended opportunity to improved swing mechanics and an uncanny ability to hammer pitches up in the zone.

Expecting a repeat of his .930 on-base plus slugging percentage from a year ago would be asking too much, but his patience alone makes him a good candidate to once again be productive and help fill in the gaps left behind by Cruz and Markakis. His versatility in being able to play good defense at first base as well as at the corner outfield spots is extremely valuable for Showalter over the course of a season.

You should never look into spring training stats too much, but five homers and a .951 OPS in the Grapefruit League indicate the former journeyman isn’t resting on the laurels of 2014.

4. Chris Davis looks more like the hitter he was in 2012 and 2013 than last year

No one expects Davis to hit 53 homers like he did two seasons ago, but the Orioles need much more than the .196 average and .704 OPS he provided last season.

The question has been asked over and over about how Baltimore will replace Cruz’s 40 homers from a year ago, and the truth is that Cruz himself was highly unlikely to do that again in 2015. Still, the Orioles need to make up that production with Davis having the opportunity to contribute a great deal to that puzzle.

The increased use of the shift isn’t going away, which won’t do any favors for his batting average moving forward, but Davis insists that the oblique injury he suffered last April hindered his power all season. The 29-year-old has talked about bunting on occasion to offset the shift, but his power returning to at least his 2012 level (33 homers and a .501 slugging percentage) is more valuable than obsessing too much over his batting average.

With free agency looming, will the real Davis emerge? The Orioles would benefit greatly if the guy from a couple years ago resurfaces.

5. Another diamond in the rough emerges this season

In 2012, it was Miguel Gonzalez and Nate McLouth. Last year, Pearce and Joseph provided contributions that no one would have predicted.

If the Orioles are to return to the postseason for the third time in four years, they will inevitably need an individual or two to come out of nowhere to pay dividends. It’s the reason why executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette brings in so many minor-league free agents, journeymen, and players who make you say, “Who?” on a yearly basis.

Could it be former first-round pick Travis Snider building on a hot second half with Pittsburgh last year?

Is the returning Nolan Reimold finally going to stay healthy enough to contribute at some point this season?

Will Rule 5 pick Jason Garcia make the club and use his lively arm to become a better-than-expected contributor in the bullpen?

Does a strong finish to last season and a terrific spring carry over for Jimmy Paredes?

Or are we likely speculating about someone who isn’t yet with the organization?

It’s easy to laugh now at the aforementioned possibilities, but stranger things have already happened over the last few years.

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2015 Orioles preview: Chris Davis

Posted on 13 March 2015 by Luke Jones

With Opening Day just over three weeks away, we’ll take a look at a member of the 2015 Orioles every day as they try to defend their American League East title this season.

March 9 – Adam Jones
March 10 – Chris Tillman
March 11 – J.J. Hardy
March 12 – Zach Britton

1B Chris Davis

Opening Day age: 29

Contract status: Becomes a free agent after the 2015 season

Minor-league options remaining: None

2014 stats: .196/.300/.404, 26 HR, 72 RBI, 65 R, 2 SB, 525 PA

Why to be impressed: Despite an awful campaign in which he hit only .196, Davis remained a patient hitter, drawing walks in 11.8 percent of his plate appearances compared to 10.7 percent a year earlier. His 26 homers still ranked third on the club despite Davis only playing 127 games.

Why to be concerned: Davis admitted this winter that the oblique injury he suffered last April lingered all year, but no player in baseball was a bigger victim of the shift as Davis saw it in 95.2 percent of his plate appearances and sported a .121 average on grounders and short liners against the shift compared to a .333 mark with no shift, per The Bill James Handbook. Davis was abysmal against off-speed pitching in 2014, but it’s fair to wonder if that was a byproduct of the injury and trying to cheat against fastballs after he feasted on off-speed pitching in 2013 and handled it adequately in 2012.

2015 outlook: His .242 batting average on balls in play from a year ago suggests he experienced plenty of bad luck as he owns a career .320 BAbip, but the shift isn’t going away and Davis has worked on his bunting down the third baseline this winter as a result. In the same way that his career 2013 season was an outlier, Davis shouldn’t be defined by his nightmarish 2014 that included a 25-game suspension for Adderall. A return to his 2012 numbers seems reasonable if he’s healthy, but it’d be very tough for him to match that .270 average with the shift becoming a fixture in baseball for the foreseeable future. If his power to the opposite field returns with his health, Davis should be able to approach the 35-homer mark.

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Who should lead off for Orioles in 2015?

Posted on 03 February 2015 by Luke Jones

With spring training only a couple weeks away, Orioles manager Buck Showalter has a number of issues to sort out as it relates to his everyday lineup.

Most attention has centered around replacing outfielders Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz — Steve Pearce, Alejandro De Aza, David Lough, Delmon Young, and the newly-acquired Travis Snider are among the candidates — but identifying who will lead off in the Baltimore lineup is anyone’s guess at this point. However, it’s not a question over which the skipper is panicking in early February.

“Somebody’s going to lead off Opening Day, I bet you,” quipped Showalter, adding that he’s more concerned with having a strong bottom of the order than with who’s hitting first. “Our guys don’t talk about it a lot. I’ve told you many times, [you could] just take your best hitter and hit him first to get more at-bats.”

It’s that very mindset that led to Markakis first becoming a regular leadoff hitter during the 2012 season even though he stole only six bases over his final three seasons with the Orioles. No one would confuse the Orioles with a track team after they stole a league-worst 44 bases in 2014, so speed isn’t a prerequisite for replacing Markakis at the top of the order.

Among their current candidates, who should lead off for the Orioles in 2015?

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Of the possible options currently on the roster, De Aza carries the most experience hitting in the leadoff position with 296 career starts there, but Showalter said Saturday it would be wrong to simply assume it’s his job to lose this spring. His career .334 on-base percentage in the top spot of the order is just a touch higher than his career .330 OBP overall, but De Aza told reporters he feels comfortable leading off if that’s what the Orioles want him to do.

His production in 2014 spiked when he was traded to the Orioles at the end of August, but De Aza is eager to rebound from a campaign he called the worst of his career as he hit only .252 with eight home runs, 41 runs batted in, and a .700 on-base plus slugging percentage combined with the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore. He would also represent one of the Orioles’ speedier options as he stole 17 bases last season.

“I can’t just go there and tell them that I want to be leadoff or they’re just going to give me the leadoff spot,” said De Aza, who added that Showalter hasn’t talked to him about the job to this point. “I’m just going to work hard, and they’re going to make the best [decision] for the team.”

Showalter acknowledged he’s had some “radical” thoughts about his lineup throughout the offseason, mentioning Lough, Pearce, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, and even Chris Davis as potential candidates to be the leadoff hitter, but nothing is set in stone. Acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates last week, Snider carried a .356 on-base percentage in the second half of 2014, and the Orioles hope that’s a sign of better things to come for the former first-round pick who’s struggled to realize his potential at the major-league level.

But if the Orioles are looking for a unconventional option who might also be the best one, Pearce led the club with a .373 OBP and worked the count as well as any hitter in the lineup a year ago. Even if the 31-year-old won’t match his lofty power figures of 21 homers and a .556 slugging percentage in 383 plate appearances in 2014, he has a career .335 OBP in parts of eight major league seasons as well as a .371 career OBP in the minor leagues.

Like Markakis, Pearce won’t offer much in terms of speed, but Showalter acknowledged the traditional leadoff hitter appears to be an endangered species in today’s game. In all likelihood, the Orioles will use a committee approach in Grapefruit League action until one or two hitters settle into the role depending on the opposing starter on a given night.

“They know things are going to change a little bit from time to time depending on who we’re facing,” Showalter said. “The conventional leadoff hitter like Brian [Roberts] was for a long time and like Rickey Henderson was for a long time, how many of them are there [today]?. How many guys can stay in the lineup against left-handed and right-handed pitching and be there every night?”

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Davis says using Adderall “never a baseball issue” for him

Posted on 31 January 2015 by Luke Jones

Breaking his silence to the local media about the suspension that cost him the opportunity to play in the 2014 postseason, Orioles first baseman Chris Davis expressed regret in letting down his teammates and explained his reason for using Adderall on Saturday.

Now the 28-year-old looks to bounce back from a nightmarish 2014 season in which he hit only .196 and was suspended 25 games on Sept. 12, just days before the Orioles clinched their first American League East title since 1997.

“It was a moment of weakness,” Davis said. “Obviously, I wasn’t thinking about the big picture. It was a mistake I wish I could go back and undo.”

Davis confirmed that he has received a therapeutic-use exemption to once again use the drug prescribed to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Major League Baseball did not grant Davis an exemption for the 2013 and 2014 seasons after having one in previous years, and the slugger admitted to using the drug “a couple times” last year even though he knew he was at risk of testing positive.

The first baseman would not reveal when his first failed test occurred or why he lost his previous exemption, only saying he “didn’t take the right steps.” However, Davis made it clear that his use of the drug shouldn’t be associated with his performance — good or bad — on the field as he downplayed the need to use the drug for baseball.

The drug helps sharpen focus, which is why it’s considered a banned substance with an exemption.

“It was never a baseball issue. For me, it was off the field — just an everyday life thing,” Davis said. “There were a lot of times when I was young where teachers had brought it up and kind of mentioned [ADHD], but we never really went down that road. When I was diagnosed in 2008, I was prescribed Adderall and I realized how much of a difference it made just in my everyday life. For me, that was kind of the reason I went down that road.”

Several of his teammates were asked how his return will impact the clubhouse with the general consensus being that the Orioles have moved on from last year. Though Davis was invited to rejoin the club for the AL Championship Series last October, many teammates expressed disappointment in his poor judgment at the time the suspension was announced.

Shortstop J.J. Hardy pointed to Davis’ exemption for the 2015 season as evidence that it’s a non-issue. Though he’ll be allowed to participate in spring training and play in Grapefruit League contests, Davis will serve the final game of his ban on Opening Day against the Tampa Bay Rays on April 6.

“I guess we should have won one in the American League Championship Series. We screwed that up,” said relief pitcher Darren O’Day, who played with Davis in Texas. “I think that’s in the past. We’ve all talked to Chris about it; he’s talked to us about it. We’ve addressed it as a team. He’s moving on, and we’re moving on. We’re expecting him to be right back where he was with the sweet swing and hitting balls out of left field. It’s going to be fun.”

Understandably, many will remain skeptical of Davis after he was so outspoken against the use of performance-enhancing drugs during his 2013 campaign in which he slugged a franchise-record 53 home runs, but he is focused on rebounding in his final season before becoming a free agent. The Orioles have discussed a long-term extension with Davis’ agent, Scott Boras, in the past, but it appears likely that the first baseman will want to rebuild his value during the 2015 campaign before potentially hitting the open market.

Davis pointed to a slow start and the oblique injury suffered in late April as the primary reasons why he was unable to get on track in 2014 after producing his overwhelming numbers a year earlier. In 127 games, Davis saw his home run total fall from 53 to 26 as he posted a .704 on-base plus slugging percentage a year after producing a 1.004 mark.

“I’ve been doing a little bit different workout this [winter]. I’ve been working on my bunting down the third-base line a lot,” said Davis, cracking a smile as he alluded to the exaggerated infield shifts opponents used against him last season. “But I’m ready to get started. I wish we started tomorrow.”

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Wieters, Davis, Tillman agree to one-year deals with Orioles

Posted on 16 January 2015 by Luke Jones

With arbitration-eligible players and major league teams scheduled to exchange salary figures for the 2015 season on Friday, the Orioles came to agreements with several key names including catcher Matt Wieters, first baseman Chris Davis, and starting pitcher Chris Tillman.

According to an ESPN report, Wieters will make $8.3 million in 2015 after making $7.7 million last season. After being limited to just 26 games before undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer, the All-Star catcher will be entering his final year before becoming a free agent next offseason.

Davis agreed to a one-year, $12 million deal after making $10.3 million last year, according to The Sun. Entering his final season before free agency, the 2013 home run king will try to bounce back from a nightmarish campaign that included a .196 average and a 25-game suspension for Adderall use that forced him to miss the Orioles’ run to the American League Championship Series.

Per CBS Sports, Tillman will receive a substantial raise in his first arbitration-eligible year by receiving $4.315 million after making only $546,000 last season. The 26-year-old has blossomed into the Orioles ace over the last two years and went 13-6 with a 3.34 ERA in 207 1/3 innings last season.

Lefty reliever Brian Matusz settled on a $3.2 million contract with the Orioles after making $2.4 million last season, per MASN Sports.

Outfielders Alejandro De Aza and Steve Pearce, infielder Ryan Flaherty, starting pitchers Bud Norris and Miguel Gonzalez, and closer Zach Britton round out the list of arbitration-eligible players who exchanged salary figures with the Orioles on Friday. Hearings will be heard next month if the sides do not come to an agreement, but teams and players typically split the difference to avoid arbitration.

Right-handed reliever Tommy Hunter avoided arbitration earlier this week by signing a $4.65 million agreement.

In other news, free-agent outfielder Nori Aoki agreed to a one-year, $4 million deal with the San Francisco Giants on Friday. He had been linked to the Orioles as a possible short-term replacement for Nick Markakis in the outfield and at the top of the lineup with his career .353 on-base percentage, but the club never showed more than limited interest.

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Orioles first baseman Davis receives approval for Adderall

Posted on 16 December 2014 by Luke Jones

The Orioles hope first baseman Chris Davis can bounce back from a nightmarish 2014 campaign that ended with him being suspended 25 games for testing positive for Adderall.

It now appears that he’s been approved to use the drug for the 2015 season. Manager Buck Showalter told reporters Tuesday that Davis recently told him that he received a therapeutic use exemption from Major League Baseball to use the drug commonly prescribed for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

Davis reportedly had an exemption to use the drug when he was a member of the Texas Rangers, but it’s believed that growing concern over the high use of Adderall has led to baseball creating a more stringent process for issuing approval in recent years. Roughly 10 percent of players on 40-man rosters in the major leagues presented notes from doctors for Adderall use last year.

Even if the newly-secured exemption may bring some closure to the disappointment of last season, trying to determine how much Adderall might impact Davis’ performance is difficult. He allegedly didn’t have an exemption to use it in 2013 when he hit a franchise-record 53 home runs. In contrast, he tested positive for the second time in his career — the first failed test reportedly came when he was still a member of the Rangers and didn’t carry a suspension — in the midst of a season in which he hit .196 and saw his long-ball total fall to 26.

The 28-year-old still has one game remaining on his 25-game suspension that began on Sept. 12 and made him ineligible for the Orioles’ 2014 postseason run.

Entering his final season before hitting free agency, Davis will look to prove he’s more like the player who was the major league home run king in 2013 and not the player who struggled throughout 2014 and saw his season end in disgrace. The Orioles would gladly take a compromise resembling his first full season with the Orioles in 2012 when he hit .270 with 33 homers, 85 runs batted in, and an .827 on-base plus slugging percentage.

Davis posting numbers in that neighborhood would go a long way in helping replace the void left behind by Nelson Cruz, who departed via free agency earlier this month to sign a four-year, $57 million contract with Seattle.

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Orioles tender contracts to Davis, Matusz, nine other arbitration-eligible players

Posted on 02 December 2014 by Luke Jones

There were no surprises prior to Tuesday night’s deadline for arbitration-eligible players as the Orioles tendered contracts to all 11 eligible in that department.

The group includes position players Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Ryan Flaherty, Steve Pearce, and Alejandro De Aza and pitchers Miguel Gonzalez, Chris Tillman, Bud Norris, Tommy Hunter, Zach Britton, and Brian Matusz. There had been some debate about the futures of Davis, De Aza, Hunter, and Matusz, but the Orioles tendered each a contract with the former three set to become free agents after the 2015 season.

As is always the case with arbitration situations, the sides will exchange salary figures in hopes of meeting somewhere in the middle and avoiding a hearing. For now, each player simply remains under club control as the Orioles can include them in any potential trade.

Though it was previously undetermined whether the Orioles would retain De Aza, his presence becomes even more important after the free-agent departure of Nelson Cruz and the undetermined status of free-agent outfielder Nick Markakis. De Aza batted .293 with the Orioles after being acquired from the Chicago White Sox in late August and is projected to make $5.9 million in 2015, according to MLBTradeRumors.com.

Davis is coming off an abysmal season in which he hit only .196 and was suspended 25 games for amphetamine use, but the memory of his 53-homer campaign in 2013 was too much to ignore as he enters his final season before free agency. After making $10.3 million in 2014, Davis is projected to receive a raise to $11.8 million next season.

Perhaps the most questionable decision was tendering Matusz a contract as the lefty specialist is projected to make $2.7 million in 2015. The 27-year-old remained effective against left-handed hitting in 2014, but he once again struggled against right-handed hitters, who posted an .876 on-base plus slugging percentage against him.

Of the Orioles’ other arbitration-eligible players, Pearce figures to receive a significant bump after a career year while arbitration first-timers Tillman, Gonzalez, and Britton are in line for significant raises after impressive accomplishments in 2014.

Davis, Wieters, De Aza, Norris, Pearce, and Hunter are all scheduled to become free agents next offseason.

Below is a list of of Baltimore’s 11 arbitration players with their MLBTradeRumors.com projected salaries for 2015 in parentheses:

LHP Zach Britton ($3.2 million after making $521,500 in 2014)
INF Chris Davis: ($11.8 million after making $10.3 million in 2014)
OF Alejandro De Aza ($5.9 million after making $4.25 million in 2014)
INF Ryan Flaherty ($1 million after making $513,000 in 2014)
RHP Miguel Gonzalez ($3.7 million after making $529,000 in 2014)
RHP Tommy Hunter ($4.4 million after making $3 million in 2014)
LHP Brian Matusz ($2.7 million after making $2.4 million in 2014)
RHP Bud Norris ($8.7 million after making $5.3 million in 2014)
1B/OF Steve Pearce ($2.2 million after making $700,000 in 2014)
RHP Chris Tillman ($5.4 million after making $546,000 in 2014)
C Matt Wieters ($7.9 million after making $7.7 million in 2014)

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How far should Orioles go to re-sign Markakis?

Posted on 28 October 2014 by Luke Jones

It’s no secret that the Orioles want to keep Nick Markakis.

The organization’s first-round pick in 2003 and the regular right fielder since 2006, Markakis is the longest-tenured Oriole and offers some value that can’t be easily measured as a longtime leader in the clubhouse. But even as executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette engages in contract talks to keep the soon-to-be 31-year-old in Baltimore for the 2015 season and beyond, everyone has a price and determining Markakis’ overall value is a tricky proposition.

It was apparent a couple years ago that the Orioles weren’t going to exercise Markakis’ $17.5 million mutual option for 2015. Even as a favorite of manager Buck Showalter and his teammates, the right fielder’s numbers have declined in recent years as 2013 was his worst season and he still only produced a .729 on-base plus slugging percentage this year. He’s hit below .280 in each of his last two seasons and his slugging percentage has fallen below the .400 mark in back-to-back years as he doesn’t provide the same gap power he did as a hitter who once averaged 45 doubles or so.

A simple look at his numbers over the last four years — save a productive 2012 that was limited to 102 games due to injuries — suggests the Orioles should attempt to find an upgrade in right field, but it isn’t quite that simple with a player like Markakis. This winter’s crop of free-agent outfielders offers few options as good as Markakis, let alone better.

That reality not only means it would be challenging to find a player of his caliber, but demand could be substantial in the open market, further driving up his price. The Orioles could make the $15.3 million qualifying offer that would drive down demand from other teams who would then forfeit a draft pick to sign him, but Markakis could simply accept the qualifying offer — in addition to his $2 million buyout — and essentially be back where he was with the original mutual option.

Internal options to replace Markakis in right field include Steve Pearce and a variety of fourth-outfielder types such as David Lough, Alejandro De Aza, and 25-year-old outfield prospect Dariel Alvarez unless you’re going all in to re-sign slugger Nelson Cruz to a long-term contract.

So, how much is Markakis really worth?

The general consensus is that a win costs approximately $6 million on the open market and Markakis has averaged just over two wins above replacement (WAR) per season over the last five years if you eliminate a very productive 2012 cut short by injuries and a horrendous 2013, the two clear outliers in that period of time. If we’re to assume Markakis continues to be a 2.0 WAR player over the next few years — optimistic, but not unreasonable for a player in his early 30s — that would put him in the neighborhood of earning $12 million per year in a vacuum.

Of course, that’s a statistically-driven monetary value that doesn’t consider the intangibles that Markakis brings that can’t be easily quantified or the supply and demand of the open market in any given offseason.

What does each side expect from the other? Do the Orioles want Markakis to take a hometown discount after signing shortstop J.J. Hardy — who’s been a 3.65 WAR player per year since 2011 and is only slightly older — to a reasonable three-year, $40 million contract with a vesting option? Does Markakis expect the Orioles to split the difference between what the numbers suggest he’s worth per year and the $17.5 million option for 2015 that they declined? Does he expect to be paid as much as or more than Hardy even though the latter has been more valuable over the last four seasons?

Even though he’s one of the few Orioles to make Baltimore his year-round home in recent years, Markakis has never had the opportunity to test the free-agent market and perhaps he’s curious to see what other teams might offer.

If you’re the Orioles, a three-year contract worth somewhere between $34 million and $38 million would be acceptable if you can’t reap the benefits of a hometown discount. Perhaps a vesting fourth-year option similar to the one Hardy received — which is reportedly based on plate appearances — would be an attractive addition, but there has been too much decline in Markakis’ production in recent years to go much higher than that in terms of years or money unless you’re perfectly fine with overpaying.

Entering the 2015 season at age 31, Markakis should have plenty of solid baseball ahead of him, but the last five years suggest the best you’re reasonably going to get from him is worth roughly $12 million per year on the open market and that’s assuming he doesn’t decline further. Of course, his value isn’t based solely on the numbers, but you have to be careful not to overpay for intangibles and sentimentality.

Replacing Markakis wouldn’t be easy in terms of finding a leadoff hitter and replacing his leadership in the clubhouse, but the Orioles shouldn’t overpay for those qualities, either, with other players and other needs to address this offseason and in the coming years.

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