There are no players on the Orioles, and few in Major League Baseball, perhaps few in the history of Major League Baseball as confounding or as difficult to assess as Mark Reynolds has been. In fact, when it comes to assessing Reynolds’ skill set and therefore his value, the discussion can be downright divisive.

Those who have no tolerance for Mark Reynolds will point to his battles with the Mendoza line and his annual assault on the 200-strikeout plateau as evidence of his not having much of a clue at the plate. The walk numbers that he routinely amasses however seem to tell a different story. Reynolds goes to the plate with an idea of the strike zone, and rarely seems willing to compromise that idea or to cater it to the game situation at hand. His inability to move runners with productive outs seems to stick in the crawls of his bashers, while the resultant lack of double plays provides plenty of fodder for his supporters.

It’s not easy these days to suggest that Buck Showalter is doing much, or anything wrong, when it comes to managing the Orioles. We seem to be in universal agreement (a rarity among baseball fans) that JJ Hardy is misplaced at best in the #2 spot in the order, but even that has given way to the “In Buck We Trust” mantra and mindset. So far though, throughout his Orioles career, Buck Showalter has handled “the Mark Reynolds situation” badly.

Reynolds is clearly not a good 3^rd baseman, a reality Orioles fans were forced to face head on last season, and a reality seemingly corrected once Reynolds transitioned to first base last season. Still, for some inexplicable reason, Showalter and the Orioles sent Reynolds home last off-season with the idea (and intention) of sticking him back at 3^rd base. They did so, unsuccessfully again, and how much of an impact that has had on the other elements of his game is, like everything else about Reynolds, debatable.

The Photo Shopped pictures of Reynolds eating sunflowers seeds in various comical locales fed the notion (and may have led some to believe) that Reynolds was indifferent to the game going on around him. Others believe Reynolds may care too much and that maybe having to make the throw from 3^rd to 1^st, across the diamond , had a mental impact on his game and caused him to be less than focused elsewhere. Whether that’s true or not, Reynolds at first base has been at the very least better than serviceable, and lately he’s arguably been pretty good there. And, coincidentally or not, he seems to have picked things up at the plate since being assigned to first as well.

For those who find themselves counting the days until Reynolds’ departure…beware. Reynolds’ contract situation is like all other Reynolds related subjects precarious. He has an $11 million club option at the end of the season, but will also finish 2012 short of the 6 years of MLB service time required to make him a free agent. That would seem to make the Orioles likely to buy out his option and offer either arbitration, or a longer-term compromise of a contract.

As things stand today, Reynolds’ .347 OBP ranks him 25^th in the American League. In simpler terms there are only 24 guys in the entire AL this year who are more difficult to get out than Mark Reynolds. Of the 12 guys sitting above him in OBP, about half have anywhere near the power potential Reynolds possesses, in fact only 12 of the 24 players above him have more than the 16 homeruns that Reynolds has in this, a down year for power based on his career standards. Turning Reynolds walks into singles puts him in good company (OBP and power-wise) with guys like Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson and Josh Hamilton, all of whom are looking down the barrels of $20 million or so per season paydays while Reynolds (at $11 million) is being treated like a plague on the Orioles.

The Orioles just keep winning. How? Come on all you true Oriole fans, how many times have you asked yourself that question this year? And your answers? Does this sound familiar – “let’s see, last night  – it was the starting pitching, it was the relief pitching, just who was pitching………the offense must have stepped up, the defense finally came around, so-and-so was hot, etc. etc.” Then you say – who cares, put another one in the WIN column!  As of September 2nd, they are not going away. Yes, O’s fans it is September and the Baltimore Orioles are in a pennant/wild card race.

Back on July 18th, I wrote – The Orioles are Back to Normal……… and at that time they were. This isn’t normal. This is FUN! Buck-Buck is tough, he goes with his gut, he sticks with his players, he is running the team – Showalter style. Dan Duquette is making some fortuitous acquisitions. The organization is feeding off the Andy McPhail farm teams. And the Angelos family appears to have bought into the current approach. Players are going down, players are picking it up, guys you have never heard of before are contributing. They went 18 – 9 in August. The most wins in a single month since September 2004.

This was the best August in 15 years,  that didn’t involve the acquisition of a new manager, i.e. Buck-Buck 2 years ago. There was even a time during the middle of the month, where it looked like the umpires were attempting a little “fix” of their own. The O’s held it together and I believe it was at that point, they became a “team”. It was the Boston series and umpire Laz Diaz. Then the series immediately following in Detroit with umpire Tim Timmons. Both of those umpires should be suspended and/or fined – “Hold them accountable.” Buck-Buck usually remains pretty even keel. Actually, to even keel for my taste (I’m old school – Earl Weaver). But finally, enough was enough and Buck lost it in Detroit.

In Boston – Laz Diaz. A blown “out” call at first involving Adam Jones. It was potentially a turning point in the game and cost the O’s a run.. He clearly missed the call. The next night Jones gets intentionally hit in the back by Clay “Classless” Bucholz in retaliation for Jones plowing the catcher the night before. No warning from Diaz (he’s behind the plate now). Jim Palmer comments  - “Come on Laz………..you blew calls last night……….now this.” In Detroit – Tim Timmons (home plate). Another blown “out” call on Markakis in the first inning when he was safe at home. Then Timmons again, over turned a call later in the game at first base, with Reynolds making another nice saving grab. The first base ump called Detroit player out, Detroit complained, numbnut Timmons comes out and reversed it, ultimately making the wrong call. Buck Showalter wins Orioles Emmy for “Best Earl Weaver Impression – 2012.” Tough week. Orioles prevailed.

The nucleus of the team has remained intact: Markakis (did lose him in June), Jones, Weiters, Hardy, Chen, Johnson and believe it or not Reynolds. Thank you Mark Reynolds for beating the Spankmees this wet Labor Day weekend. The pitching, left field, 3B, 2B has been a revolving door and you have to credit Buck-Buck, Duquette and the numerous replacements that have stepped up. How about that Machado call up? With that surprising addition, they may have secured the corners for the run. It’s hard to keep up with the turnover rate. It’s kind of like Buck is saying – “With or Without You” – (U2), we are on a mission. Buck quote – “This is as good a club I’ve ever had about staying in the moment.” Well O’s – how about, Seize the Moment?

The Orioles are winning. They are a team. I like the “Outfielder Bump” after a win. I like Palmers nickname for the bullpen – “The Orange Curtain”. I like the self-imposed starting rotation competition. I like, that they do not give up. How about that bullpen? The Strop/Johnson combo is holding up. How about the best defense in the majors since the All-star break?  ”Playoffs? Don’t talk about playoffs. You kidding me? Playoffs?” Yeah, the Birds are perched ready for a run. Fifteen years………..it’s about time. It’s also going to be a long September. And I’m glad! Where did the summer go? Go O’s! O-R-I-O-L-E-S magic.

D.I.Y.

Fedman

BALTIMORE — After manager Buck Showalter offered cryptic comments last week about the potential call-up of top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy, it now appears the 19-year-old won’t be pitching for the Orioles in September.

Bundy will remain with Double-A Bowie and then report to the organization’s instructional league on Sept. 12, according to Showalter. The Baysox are on the verge of clinching a spot in the Eastern League playoffs, and Bundy will be expected to pitch in their postseason.

“He’s at a level he’s been challenged with, just like he got challenged more in Frederick,” Showalter said. “He had some outings that weren’t [great]. I think the progression of his development’s been great. You couldn’t ask for a better progression.”

Starting for the Baysox on Tuesday night, the 19-year-old allowed two earned runs and four hits while striking out six in 5 1/3 innings against Erie. However, Showalter pointed out that Bundy walked four batters and has struggled more as he’s climbed the ladder from Delmarva to Frederick to Bowie this season.

Bundy has walked eight batters in 16 2/3 innings over his first three starts at Double A. He is 2-0 with a 3.24 earned run average with the Baysox.

Combining his numbers pitching at three different levels this season, the right-hander is 9-3 with a 2.08 ERA in 23 starts spanning 103 2/3 innings. He has 119 strikeouts and 28 walks and has allowed 67 hits and six home runs.

The club will send Bundy to the mid-September instructional league to improve a couple areas of his game. Showalter indicated it’s a great opportunity for players to work with the organization’s best instructors in the hopes of skipping a level in the minor leagues.

“I know times to the plate from the stretch, holding runners,” Showalter said. “That’s something that’s been a little bit of a challenge for him. Command, the higher he’s gone up, it’s been a little more of a challenge. Four walks in Bowie are more walks up here.”

Showalter has spoken in the past about young players sometimes benefiting from being called up to the major league club to experience a pennant race without necessarily contributing much on the field, but that does not appear to be an option for the 2011 first-round pick.

However, the manager indicated Bundy could find himself pitching in Baltimore next April if he makes the necessary adjustments between now and then.

“Frankly, what you’ve got to ask yourself is, ‘Does he have a chance to be on your club to start the season next year?’” Showalter said. “That kind of affects the way you look at it. Right now, I want him to pitch his butt off and help Bowie win an Eastern League championship. That’s where I want his mindset. When that’s over, look forward to working on some weaknesses down in instructional league with some very good staff members.”

 Visit the BuyAToyota.com Audio Vault HERE to hear Showalter’s comments regarding Bundy.

The Orioles officially have surpassed their win total from 2011, winning their 70^th game on Monday night versus the White Sox. The organization has finally started to turn things around, as they are in a well-publicized playoff hunt and on pace for their first winning season since Davey Johnson was manager north of the BWI.  A year full of “Orioles Magic” has been a long time coming in Baltimore, but has been a long work in progress as well.

Though his tenure here was not only brief, but extremely disappointing, Andy MacPhail actually laid the ground work for the team that is winning games at what seems to be a rapid rate this season.  Though the Orioles have witnessed momentous failures (Brian Matusz, Mark Reynolds and Felix Pie), the core of this group can be credited to MacPhail’s tenure in Baltimore.  Now this does not mean that current GM, Dan Duquette, does not deserve his own fair share of the credit.  The moves he made throughout the season have been unspectacular, yet crucial in their own right.  Nobody thought the Wei-Yin Chen experiment would amount to anything, but he has exceeded probably his own expectations as the Orioles best and most reliable pitcher.

The Jason Hammel deal sent fan favorite, Jeremy Guthrie, out of town but in turn brought back two quality starters.  Obviously Hammel has spent a good portion of the season on the DL, but pitched well enough to be considered a building block for the rotation.  The Orioles also received Matt Lindstrom in return for Guthrie, who now has been moved for Joe Saunders.  Doing the math, any major league roster would take two quality starters for one.  Add in moves to bring in Nate McLouth, Omar Quintanilla and Luis Ayala, while bringing up top positional prospect, Manny Machado; Duquette’s 2012 can be nothing more than remarkable.

But that does not take it account what he has inherited here in Baltimore; which is a lot more than anyone would have given him credit for in the offseason.  MacPhail made the moves to acquire Adam Jones, Chris Davis and J.J. Hardy; who are the best hitters in this lineup not named Markakis.  He drafted Gold Glove (and fan favorite) catcher Matt Wieters, rising star Manny Machado and the top prospect in the minors, Dylan Bundy; none of which with the first pick in the draft.

So five of six most productive starters in the lineup came from the daunted MacPhail era, along with the future Ace of the rotation.  But most importantly, he is the one get Buck Showalter off MLB tonight and back into the dugout.  MacPhail is the one to recognize Buck as the fit to lead this roster past a decade and a half ineptitude.  So even though he never was able to make the small moves, which sets rosters apart from winners to losers, he made the big picture for the Orioles much better for present day and the future.

BALTIMORE — With the Orioles beginning play on Friday tied for the second American League wild card spot, one of the most intriguing questions discussed over the better part of the last two months has centered around a 19-year-old pitching prospect Dylan Bundy.

Will the club call up the young pitcher when rosters expand on Sept. 1?

Though manager Buck Showalter wasn’t asked directly about Bundy’s status before Friday’s game, he’s smart enough to know any questions regarding potential September call-ups are accompanied by the underlying meaning of where the phenom pitcher fits into the equation.

It wasn’t the first time the topic had been broached to the Baltimore manager in recent weeks, but Showalter paused longer than usual before providing a response. It didn’t take a genius to figure out to which particular prospect he was referring.

“We’re considering all options,” said Showalter with a smirk on his face. “I think I know where you’re going and rightfully so.”

Showalter met with his coaching staff to discuss potential options when rosters expand next week before he meets once again with executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette. Triple-A Norfolk and Double-A Bowie both play their regular-season finales on Sept. 3, but each is in playoff contention.

While the Orioles in past seasons would have likely left younger players with their respective farm clubs to gain postseason experience, the objective is dramatically different this season as the Orioles look to earn their first postseason berth in 15 years.

“I know Dan’s thinking the priority is going to be what best serves us,” said Showalter about the farm clubs’ prospective playoff runs, “but if we can bridge the gap and satisfy both needs, then we’ll try to do it.”

Already a member of the 40-man roster, Bundy is scheduled to make his next start for Double-A Bowie on Sunday, which will be his third with the Baysox. The right-hander has pitched 11 1/3 innings over his first two starts, posting a 3.18 earned run average with seven strikeouts and four walks.

The likelihood of Bundy being promoted to the big leagues seemed remote at best only a few weeks ago, but the Orioles’ bold decision to call up 20-year-old shortstop Manny Machado to become their everyday third baseman signaled a dramatic shift in philosophy. The club called up a prospect with the thought of helping the big-league club over what might have been best for his development.

As for the other candidates to be recalled, Showalter doesn’t anticipate too many surprises with the likes of Steve Tolleson, Xavier Avery, Joe Mahoney, Jake Arrieta, and Jason Berken on the current 40-man roster.

“I think it changes depending on what situation you’re in,” Showalter said. “There are some guys that you’d like to expose to it, but most of them are here or have already been here. We’ve done a pretty good job of exposing people this year to the environment and everything — or a bad job of it. This year, I think they’re going to serve a purpose of helping us win, which is kind of one in the same. There’s only a couple guys in there potentially that there was some discussion about. I think the rest of it — in our coaches’ minds — was pretty cut and dry.”

In addition to Bundy, another intriguing possibility to provide a spark to the big club would be outfielder L.J. Hoes, who’s hitting .318 at Norfolk and could provide another option in left field should veteran Nate McLouth begin struggling. Hoes is not on the current 40-man roster, but Showalter said the club has proven all year it’s not afraid to remain fluid with their overall makeup.

“Obviously, Dan’s always got some ideas that we haven’t thought about, and there’s some other variables you’ve got to keep in mind when you’re calling guys up,” Showalter said. “It won’t matter whether they’re on the [40-man] roster or not; I can tell you that, like it hasn’t all year. If they can help us, they’re coming [and] we’ll figure it out.”

By no means is a Bundy call-up guaranteed to happen, but the whispers are becoming louder and the chances growing stronger that the 2011 first-round pick will take the Camden Yards mound in September to try to aid in the Orioles’ first playoff push since the young pitcher was several weeks shy of his fifth birthday in 1997.

Unexpected events often call for unexpected decisions, and the Bundy decision is sure to be filled with intrigue — and controversy — over the next few weeks.

If the reports are true and the Orioles have zeroed in on Phillies pitcher Joe Blanton as their final trade-deadline piece, I have one word for Dan Duquette:

Make that two words:  No thanks.

Joe Blanton, really?

That’s Duquette’s big move at the 11th hour?

As Denzel said to Ethan Hawke in Training Day, “This s**t’s chess, it ain’t checkers…”

Bringing in Joe Blanton is checkers.

You’d be better off just going with Miguel Gonzalez or some other dude from Norfolk who might parlay a major league cup of coffee into a few wins in August and September.

Reports out of Philadelphia yesterday indicated the Phillies asked the Orioles for minor league prospect Jonathan Schoop and for the Birds to pay the remaining $3 million of Blanton’s 2012 salary.  The Orioles, predictably, have balked at paying the money.

There hasn’t been any indication that the Orioles have agreed to sending Schoop to Philly, but if they do – for Blanton – they’re completely nuts.

Schoop as part of a deal to bring in Cliff Lee?  Yes, that’s fine.

Schoop for Blanton?

I’d hope Duquette isn’t that gullible.

The Orioles already have Joe Blanton.  His name is Tommy Hunter.  If Duquette’s goal is to add another pitcher who will give up a couple of home runs and surrender 5 earned runs in 6.2 innings of work, then Blanton is a perfect fit.  But if Duquette really thinks a starting pitcher can take them over the top and into September as a real player in the playoff race, I’d hope he banks on someone other than Joe Blanton to get it done.

I’m all for the Orioles adding players at the deadline, by the way.  Read that again before you whine and complain in the comments section about how “even when they add a player like Blanton, you find a way to complain, Drew.”  Here goes, again:  I’m all for the Orioles adding players at the deadline.

I just want them to add good players.

And I am not interested in renting those players if, instead, I can be a buyer and have someone in the fold in 2013 and beyond.

I’d rather see the Orioles buy then rent.

The Justin Upton rumors were intriguing to me because a player like that is only made available on rare occasions.  And I’d even be willing to give up a high prospect or two or three to get him because he plays every day.  I wouldn’t rule out taking on a Cliff Lee, either, if he would be willing to come to Baltimore, but on the whole I’ll take a field player over a pitcher every day.

I’d much prefer the Orioles be buyers rather than renters. I’d like for the team to get better, now, and be better heading into next spring.  That’s what happens when you buy.

But if they’re going to rent, I hope the Orioles get the 3-bedroom condo with the view of the Inner Harbor.

Don’t bring in the basement level 1-bedroom studio that faces the ice machine and the back entrance to the garage.

Come on Dan, the Harbor is beautiful this time of year.

The good news is that no matter what happens before 4pm Tuesday, I won’t have to wear a Hooters outfit anywhere.

That’s good news for all of us.

If the Baltimore Orioles had made a trade “of significance” before our WNST Baltimore Sports Media Superstar finals last week at Hooters, I had pledged to don the whole garb. I was going to show up to the event in the white tank top (with padding), orange booty shorts and tights. (I had a listener ask if I had also agreed to wax, and I said I had. Looking back, I have no idea why I said that.)

Thankfully, the acquisition of INF Omar Quintanilla (even after getting three quarters of the way to hitting for the cycle Sunday) could not be argued as “significant” by much of anyone.

Don’t get the wrong idea. This wasn’t some sort of fetish. I had ZERO interest in donning tights…unless I was given an offer to replace Christian Bale in the next Batman installment. But truth be told I would have happily squeezed into the shorts if it meant Josh Johnson had been pitching against the Oakland Athletics this weekend instead of the San Diego Padres.

Following Sunday’s win over the A’s, the Birds have gone 8-9 since the All-Star Break. They’ve lost 22 of the last 36 games they’ve played overall, but they’re still 53-49 overall and just two games back in the AL Wild Card race.

Quick, back to the negative. The O’s have a -58 run differential for the season and despite being tied for second place in the AL East, ESPN calculates that they have a 6.2% chance of making the postseason. Despite the statistic being meaningless, I figured I’d pass along that the two teams behind the Orioles in the division (the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox) are given an 18% and 21.9% “POFF” respectively by the Worldwide Leader.

Here we are.

I’ve maintained that there’s little way to explain the success of the 2012 Baltimore Orioles as anything other than “an accident”. It hasn’t happened because GM Dan Duquette put together an overwhelming level of talent on the field before the season. It hasn’t happened because the pitching staff matured to a point where the “cavalry” evoked visions of Palmer, Cuellar, McNally and Dobson in Charm City. It hasn’t happened because the lineup has figured out a way to get the one big hit necessary when given the opportunity. It definitely hasn’t happened because the team has stolen runs with good base running and taken away runs with stellar defense.

The only tangible ways to explain the success of the Baltimore Orioles to this point are a stellar bullpen, sound leadership from Buck Showalter and a surprising amount of power lead by CF Adam Jones.

Despite the fact that pitchers like Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Anibal Sanchez, Francisco Liriano and Wandy Rodriguez and capable position players like Ichiro, Hanley Ramirez and Chris Johnson aren’t available anymore, there are plenty of capable players that are.

I do not believe anyone is making smoke and mirrors available however.

(I’ve thought that it would be REALLY funny however if the Birds were to acquire recently demoted Seattle Mariners 1B Justin Smoak and Milwaukee Brewers 3B Aramis Ramirez. Get it? “Smoak and Ramirez?” I’m hilarious.)

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BALTIMORE — It came down to the final nervous moments, but the Orioles signed No. 4 overall pick Kevin Gausman to bring another talented pitcher to the organization.

The LSU right-hander agreed to terms on a contract just before the 5 p.m. deadline on Friday and announced the news himself on his Twitter account.

“I was confident we were going to get a deal done,” Gausman said. “I feel so blessed to have this opportunity and just real excited about this road I will be starting soon.”

According to Keith Law, Gausman signed a deal worth $4.32 million, which was more than the assigned pool amount of $4.2 million for the No. 4 overall pick in the first round. However, the Orioles will not be required to pay any tax because they stayed within their allotted bonus pool under the new collective bargaining agreement.

Scouting director Gary Rajsich said the organization was confident they would sign the talented 21-year-old, but there were some nervous moments along the way. A report earlier in the week hinted that Gausman was “strongly considering” returning to LSU for his junior season, and the pitcher said it was a difficult decision to leave Baton Rouge.

“We are thrilled to have Kevin,” Rajsich said. “I do love a power pitcher with a fastball with a lot of movement on it who can control the speed of bats with his changeup. He can throw it for strikes back-to-back so it is an effective pitch for him.”

Executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette said the organization hasn’t finalized plans for where Gausman will report for the remainder of the 2012 season, but a decision will be made over the next few days. He reminded everyone that Gausman had a heavy workload for the Tigers this season, which will factor into how much he will pitch in the Orioles’ system for the remainder of this year.

Gausman possesses mid-90s velocity on his four-seam fastball and also throws a two-seamer he feels is appropriate for pitching at homer-happy Camden Yards. His changeup is considered a plus-pitch, but his breaking stuff — a curveball and a slider — is still  a work in progress.

“How long I spend in certain places [in the minors] is going to be determined by those pitches and whether I’m going to keep one or try to develop both,” Gausman said. “That will be a big difference maker for me.”

The 6-foot-4, 185-pound draft-eligible sophomore went 11-1 with a 2.72 ERA (115 2/3 innings), 128 strikeouts, 27 walks and two complete games in 16 starts for LSU this season. Gausman was 5-6 with a 3.51 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 89 2/3 innings in his freshman season in 2011.

He was originally selected out of high school by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the sixth round of the 2010 draft but elected to go to LSU instead. Gausman is the third first-round pick the Orioles have selected from LSU, joining Ben McDonald in 1989 and Mike Fontenot in 2001.

To hear Gausman’s introductory press conference as well as comments from Duquette and Rajsich, visit the BuyAToyota.com Audio Vault right here.

As I wrote in an earlier blog, one of the best parts of the game of baseball is that for the most part the 162 games separate the pretenders for contenders. The way that things have been going for our birds, I do not see them getting to 81 wins, as constructed right now. I am also a firm believer that deadline trades do little more than cost you as compared the value you get out of them. The best of these deals in the past 20 years has been CC Sabathia to the Brewers. He gave them 6.7 wins above replacement. Most of the better trades hover somewhere around 3. Will 3 to 5 wins make the Orioles a playoff team? What are you willing to give up for those 3-5 wins? These are interesting questions that Dan Duquette has to muddle through in this next 2 weeks.

Buck Showalter has been a miracle worker as he has kept this team in contention with the worst defense in the league, and a minus 36 run differential. Only Minnesota and Kansas City are worse in the league. I think it has helped that the Yankees, Rangers, and Angels of late, are the only teams that have separated themselves from the pack. The Birds are finished playing the Angels, and have 3 left with the Rangers and 9 with the Yankees. That means the birds have 65 games left against average competition. That itself, should keep them competitive at least into late August. Considering what we have lived with for the last 15 years that is a win for everyone involved including the team, fans, and the local starving businesses. Let look at some of the rumors that have been floated out in the media.

I believe Duquette can make some moves that can keep this team in contention for the Wild Card. Let’s get real; they are not winning the Division. A pitcher like Zach Greinke seems to be out of the question. The cost would be too prohibitive to be worth it. He would give us about 12 starts and if he is on top of his game, maybe 8 wins? More than likely, he is good and we get 6 wins. Whomever he replaces, Matusz, Arieta, Hunter etc… would probably win 2 by accident. Is that 4 to 6 game difference worth what you have to give up? Trust me, Bundy and Machado will be center of the conversation. Also remember he is not signed past this year. Thank you, but I will pass on this one.

Of all the rumors, I look to the Chicago Cubs and either Ryan Dempster or Matt Garza. I do not have an issue about taking Alfonso Soriano because he can still hit. Yes, you have the contract for the next couple of years, but he is a hits the ball better than anyone we have in left field. Frankly, money should not be the issue either since they have save millions since the inception of MASN. Dempster will come cheaper, in players needed to give up, than Garza and you have the ability to be free of him at the end of the year if it does not work out. Although on the disabled list, he is just about ready to come back and doesn’t have a history of injuries. The best part of getting Dempster and Soriano is that you more than likely do not have to give up the untouchables, Bundy, Machado, Jones, and Weiters.

Whatever happens, it is going to be interesting and telling next couple of weeks for Dan Duquette, Buck Showalter and the Orioles. The playoffs are not out of the question because of the mediocrity of most of the field. What, if any moves will they make to get those 5-6 wins they need to part of the mix. I am sure we all will be watching, and that is an improvement from most of the last 15 years.

I would venture to say that no one predicted the Orioles to do as well as they have to this point in the season, except for maybe some of the “homers” out there.  It’s been a year of surprises and disappointments (those links courtesy our own Luke Jones) so far and right now the O’s are in somewhat of a purgatory or limbo.  As I said in one my earlier pieces, the next two weeks or so will be a turning point for the team and will show whether they are ready to contend for a playoff spot or gear up for the future.

Here are my five predictions for the second half of the year:

1. The Orioles will not end up “buying” any great players – Even though Dan Duquette has declared the Orioles “buyers” at the trade deadline, I don’t buy this for a second.  Up until this point, Duquette has given every indication that he believes the right way to build a team is through the farm system.  He really didn’t take a huge risk on Jim Thome (which appears like a failure so far) and I don’t think he will be willing to give up what is needed to get someone like Zach Grienke, Matt Garza, or Wandy Rodriguez which would be some middle to high level prospects.

2. The Orioles will trade Wilson Betemit or Mark Reynolds – There are a few teams that are in need of a quality third baseman and there aren’t many of those around.  The Orioles have two.  To call them “quality” might be a stretch but they can certainly fill a void for a team in need.  Nick Markakis’s (returning to the lineup Friday) and Endy Chavez’s (now on a rehab tour) returns will add depth to the outfield allowing Chris Davis to return to the first base position which will make a trade of either of the two third basemen even more logical.

3. Brian Matusz, Jake Arietta, and Tommy Hunter will not return to the MLB level – They may come back next year but if you look at Chris Tillman and the good that working with Rick Peterson in the minors did, I think the Orioles will be wise and keep them down to figure things out.  The process of identifying their problems and fixing them is a somewhat lengthy process also.  It requires in depth recording and analysis of the pitching delivery and then practice of the corrections made to it.

4. J.J. Hardy will continue to slump – I never thought that J.J. would be as good as he was last year.  This year he is clearly fatigued and maybe injured, batting only .224/.262/.380. That’s bad any way you look at it.  I have heard some things about him dealing with shoulder pain and if you have ever played baseball, you know how hard it is to swing if your shoulder isn’t 100%.

And finally…

5. The Orioles will not finish above .500 – As much as I would like them to, I just don’t see it happening.  The way the Orioles were having success (good pitching and hitting home runs) is not a sustainable winning formula, first of all, and it has completely unraveled in the past 20 games.  Remember, this isn’t just a few game slump we are looking at.  We are witnessing a bad baseball team at the moment and one that I think has reached its ceiling.

I know these predictions are a little pessimistic but I’m just trying to be realistic and look at the facts with this team.  They aren’t playing well, no matter how you slice it.  You can only go on history and if you do that, there is every indication the team will start trading away players at the first sign of trouble, thus making the team worse.

Extra credit prediction: Adam Jones will continue being a big mouth (and I’m putting that nicely).  I’m really not sure why so many people like the guy.  Since his new contract (all $85 million of it) he has been below average at best. He constantly mouths off at fans on Twitter and says how he and the team need to do better yet doesn’t make good on his statements.  Adam needs to start putting his money (no pun intended) where his mouth is and play some good baseball.

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