I would venture to say that no one predicted the Orioles to do as well as they have to this point in the season, except for maybe some of the “homers” out there.  It’s been a year of surprises and disappointments (those links courtesy our own Luke Jones) so far and right now the O’s are in somewhat of a purgatory or limbo.  As I said in one my earlier pieces, the next two weeks or so will be a turning point for the team and will show whether they are ready to contend for a playoff spot or gear up for the future.

Here are my five predictions for the second half of the year:

1. The Orioles will not end up “buying” any great players – Even though Dan Duquette has declared the Orioles “buyers” at the trade deadline, I don’t buy this for a second.  Up until this point, Duquette has given every indication that he believes the right way to build a team is through the farm system.  He really didn’t take a huge risk on Jim Thome (which appears like a failure so far) and I don’t think he will be willing to give up what is needed to get someone like Zach Grienke, Matt Garza, or Wandy Rodriguez which would be some middle to high level prospects.

2. The Orioles will trade Wilson Betemit or Mark Reynolds – There are a few teams that are in need of a quality third baseman and there aren’t many of those around.  The Orioles have two.  To call them “quality” might be a stretch but they can certainly fill a void for a team in need.  Nick Markakis’s (returning to the lineup Friday) and Endy Chavez’s (now on a rehab tour) returns will add depth to the outfield allowing Chris Davis to return to the first base position which will make a trade of either of the two third basemen even more logical.

3. Brian Matusz, Jake Arietta, and Tommy Hunter will not return to the MLB level – They may come back next year but if you look at Chris Tillman and the good that working with Rick Peterson in the minors did, I think the Orioles will be wise and keep them down to figure things out.  The process of identifying their problems and fixing them is a somewhat lengthy process also.  It requires in depth recording and analysis of the pitching delivery and then practice of the corrections made to it.

4. J.J. Hardy will continue to slump – I never thought that J.J. would be as good as he was last year.  This year he is clearly fatigued and maybe injured, batting only .224/.262/.380. That’s bad any way you look at it.  I have heard some things about him dealing with shoulder pain and if you have ever played baseball, you know how hard it is to swing if your shoulder isn’t 100%.

And finally…

5. The Orioles will not finish above .500 – As much as I would like them to, I just don’t see it happening.  The way the Orioles were having success (good pitching and hitting home runs) is not a sustainable winning formula, first of all, and it has completely unraveled in the past 20 games.  Remember, this isn’t just a few game slump we are looking at.  We are witnessing a bad baseball team at the moment and one that I think has reached its ceiling.

I know these predictions are a little pessimistic but I’m just trying to be realistic and look at the facts with this team.  They aren’t playing well, no matter how you slice it.  You can only go on history and if you do that, there is every indication the team will start trading away players at the first sign of trouble, thus making the team worse.

Extra credit prediction: Adam Jones will continue being a big mouth (and I’m putting that nicely).  I’m really not sure why so many people like the guy.  Since his new contract (all $85 million of it) he has been below average at best. He constantly mouths off at fans on Twitter and says how he and the team need to do better yet doesn’t make good on his statements.  Adam needs to start putting his money (no pun intended) where his mouth is and play some good baseball.

Follow me on Twitter @RealJohnSears

With no Orioles to talk about the next few days (I’ll likely do a report card or evaulation of some sort this week, much like everyone else on the Barstool will), I thought I’d share a debate I had recently.  This story, though not about an Orioles player, does have some parallels,

It was June 27th, and I was having a discussion with a friend and classmate of mine (who will remain anonymous in this instance) about Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum.   This discussion wasn’t at a bar over a pint, as he’s not yet old enough to drink (and lives quite a distance away), nor was it over the phone, as I don’t use my iPhone for much else other then texting, mobile internet, and Angry Brids.  Our discussion took place on his Facebook wall.

“The Freak”, who had struggled through most of the season was coming off an impressive Wednesday afternoon outing, pitching 7 shutout innings 0f 4-hit baseball.  He had command of his fastball, all of his pitches, really, and whiffed 8 batters.   The Giants would win that game, 3-0, tying the slumping Dodgers for 1st place in the NL West.

My friends immediate reaction: TIM LINCECUM IS BACK!

His post spouted off how he was pitching with confidence and conviction, and when he does this, he’s the at the level of untouchable 2 time Cy Young award winner.  I would retort that while he looked great, he did it against a Dodgers squad that, at time time, had only won 1 of their last 9 games (they would lose their next 3), and that hadn’t scored a run since Sunday (reminder: it was now Wednesday).  I told him to wait until his next start, because even Jake Arietta has a good start now and then.  I used Arietta as an example, because at the time, both pitchers had comparable stats in wins (3) and ERA (around 5.50).

My friend would retort, mostly in caps, about how Lincecum shouldn’t be mentioned in the same breath as Arietta (and I generally agree), and about his pedigree as a 4 time all star and World Series champion.  He brought up previous struggles, and how he’d worked through them, citing a stretch in August ’10, where he went 0-5 with a deplorable 7.82 ERA.  Tim worked through it, delivering a 5-1 September, with a 1.94 ERA.

I’d end the back and forth saying that I like Lincecum.  He’s got a fire, drive, charisma, and long locks of hair that make any 80′s Metal God experiencing male pattern baldness jealous.  Problem with him is that he’d gone from the most talented and feared starting pitcher on the planet, to 4th best on his own squad.  Matt Cain was just coming off perhaps the greatest game ever thrown by a pitcher, Madison Bumgarner is legit, and Ryan Vogelsong, though 34, is pitching the best baseball of his career.

“If he has history of struggles, then we’ll be having a similar talk when he tanks again next season (or perhaps, his next start when he faces the Nats).” Is how our back and forth ended.

Well, he faced the Nationals, and they lit him up for 8 runs (7 earned) in 3 1/3 innings.  His start yesterday against the Pirates was equally bad (6 runs, 3.1 innings).

Now my friend and I haven’t communicated since.  Lincecum goes into the all star break with the worst ERA in the bigs (6.42), worst WHIP (1.58), and with 10 losses, only 1 of 4 pitchers to hit this mark of futility.  To say “The Franchise” is the most disappointing player of the season so far is the mother of understatements.

Lincecum’s struggles are similar to that of a Jake Arietta.  The only difference is that because Lincecum has had big time success, he still has the support of fans.  Many have jumped off the bandwagon, as people often do in down times, but some are still there offering support.  Arietta, yet to taste success in the big leagues, still has potential, but like Lincecum, seems right now to lack that confidence to make him successful.  Arietta supporters, however, dwarf what “The Freak has”. Same can be said for other struggling players on the O’s roster.  The ability and talent is there, it’s just figuring out what it takes to pull it out of them, and a bigger factor, lack of support.

On a final note, tonight is the Semi-finals of the WNSTBSMS at Hooters of Towson.  Good luck to everyone coming out tonight.  Here’s hoping I don’t suffer that same lack of support.

@JamesTFinn on Twitter.