There are 3 weeks remaining in the season for the Ravens, and all other teams for that matter. The good news is that the Ravens are very much in control of their own playoff destiny; if they win their remaining 3 games nothing can keep them from the playoffs. There is however, still little reason to believe that the Ravens will win all 3 games. The other good news is that they probably won’t have to. The bad news then, is that there are a myriad of possibilities on how the season plays out and what it might mean from a Ravens perspective.
Here is a comprehensive breakdown of all scenarios and possible tie-break situations the Ravens might face as the season winds down:
Record 7-6 Conference Record 6-4 Division Record 3-2
Remaining Games: @DET, vs NE, @CIN
Record 9-4 Conference Record 7-3 Division Record 2-2
Remaining Games: @PIT, vs MIN, vs BAL
This one is pretty straightforward, if the Ravens are going to catch the Bengals they have to beat the Bengals…they’ll also need Cincinnati to lose at least one other game. Any tie between the Ravens and Bengals would go to the Ravens because it will require the Ravens to beat the Bengals for the second time this season, thereby giving Baltimore the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Record 5-8 Conference Record 4-6 Division Record 2-2
Remaining Games: vs. CIN, @GB, vs CLE
At 8-8 Ravens would lose the tiebreaker, either by division record if they failed to beat CIN (they’d be 3-3 to PIT’s 4-2) or by common opponents The Ravens beat HOU lost to DEN, the Steelers lost to OAK & TEN, meaning the Ravens would be 7-7 vs common opponents and the Steelers would be 8-6.
At 7-9 the Ravens would win the tiebreaker if they beat the Bengals and the Steelers lost to either the Bengals or Browns with a 4-2 division record to Pittsburgh’s 3-3. The Steelers would win the tie breaker by common opponents if the teams wound up with the same divisional record.
Record 7-6 Conference Record 6-3
Remaining Games: vs NE, @BUF, vs NYJ
The Ravens have the tiebreaker vs the Dolphins by virtue of their head-to-head victory over Miami. That could change though if the tie is between more than just 2 teams.
Record 6-7 Conference Record 3-7
Remaining Games: @CAR, vs CLE, @MIA
The Ravens have the tiebreaker vs the Jets by virtue of their head-to-head victory over New York. That could change though if the tie is between more than just 2 teams.
Record 5-8 Conference Record 4-6
Remaining Games: vs AZ, @JAX, vs HOU
At 8-8 Ravens would win tie-breaker by conference record if they win 1 more AFC game. If Ravens lose to CIN & NE but beat DET the tie-breaker becomes strength of victory (common opponents are PIT, HOU, NYJ & DEN both teams would be 3-2).
Right now the Titans 5 victories are over teams with 26 combined wins and they’d have to win their final 3 games accounting for 14 more wins so far for a total of 40 opponents’ wins. The teams that the Titans have beaten and would have to beat have 21 combined games remaining.
The Ravens 7 wins are over teams with a combined 36 wins and 1 tie and would have to win one of their last 3 games over a team with 7, 9 or 10 wins. That plus the 26 games that those opponents have remaining would seem to position the Ravens in control of the tiebreaker over Tennessee at 8-8.
At 7-9 the Ravens would win the tiebreaker by conference record with a Titans loss to Jacksonville or by common opponents with a loss to Houston. If the Titans lost to Arizona instead the tiebreaker would instead go to strength of victory where the Ravens wield a heavy advantage.
*At 7-9 there would also seem to be a likelihood that more than 2 teams would be vying for the spot.
Record 6-7 Conference Record 3-6
Remaining Games: @DEN, vs OAK, vs KC
At 9-7 the Ravens would win the tiebreaker over San Diego by conference record 7-5 or 8-4 to the Chargers 6-6.
At 8-8 the Ravens would win the tiebreaker over San Diego by conference record 7-5 or 6-6 to the Chargers 5-7.
At 7-9 The Ravens win the tiebreaker over San Diego 6-6 to the Chargers 4-8.
*Multi-team ties require divisional ties to be broken first. Refer to above for Ravens Steelers tie break scenarios.
Ravens, Dolphins & Titans
At 8-8 if Ravens beat DET, lose to CIN & NE tiebreaker goes to MIA by conference record.
If Ravens lose to Detroit beat CIN or NE, TEN eliminated by conference record, then Ravens win head-to-head vs Dolphins.
At 7-9 Tennessee is eliminated on conference record unless their loss is to AZ. If TEN loses to AZ and all teams are 7-9 with 6-6 conference records and strength of victory would decide the tie. Here’s a strength of victory refresher:
-The Titans 5 victories are over teams with 26 combined wins. They’d have to beat Jacksonville and Houston with a combined 6 wins so far.
-The Ravens 7 wins are over teams with a combined 36 wins and 1 tie.
-The Dolphins 7 wins are over opponents with 41 wins so far.
The 3 weeks remaining in the season and the successes and failures of the teams beaten by the Ravens, Dolphins & Titans in those 3 weeks could change a lot, but for now advantage Dolphins.
Ravens, Dolphins & Chargers
Chargers eliminated by conference record. If Ravens and Dolphins are tied in conference records then Ravens win head-to-head vs Dolphins, if conference records are not equal winner is determined by conference record.
Ravens, Titans & Chargers
Chargers eliminated by conference record, revert to Ravens Titans tiebreakers above.
Ravens, Jets & Titans
Jets eliminated by conference record, revert to Ravens & Titans tiebreakers above.
Ravens, Jets & Chargers
Ravens win by virtue of conference record.
Ravens, Jets, Titans & Chargers
Jets and Chargers eliminated on conference record. Refer to Ravens & Titans tiebreakers for the rest.
Ravens, Dolphins, Titans & Chargers
Chargers eliminated by conference record. Refer to Ravens, Titans & Dolphins 3-way tiebreaker for the rest.