If I understand the way the math works, the Baltimore Orioles’ magic number to clinch an American League Wild Card spot currently sits at 48.

I really felt the need to tell you that because for some goofy reason I sat and worked on it Sunday while I was supposed to be watching the Baltimore Ravens practice at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.

Congratulations Birds, you’ve successfully gotten me to take attention away from the Ravens and place it on the orange and black. The moment has actually occurred. I’m blown away.

The magic number is 48.

That means that if the total combination of O’s wins combined with losses (individually) from any other team in the Wild Card race reaches 48 before the end of the season the now 15 year playoff draught will officially be over.

It means the Birds will be playing on Friday, October 5 as part of Major League Baseball’s first ever Wild Card play-in games.

I honest to God can’t believe I’ve just typed all of this.

It’s time to cue the music.

I feel like it’s safe to say that I’ve been as reluctant (if not more reluctant) than anyone in town to accept this as an actual, realistic possibility. And if truth me told I would still say “no” if an assailant questioned my belief that the Orioles make the playoffs with a gun pointed to my temple.

It might seem like a four game split with the Kansas City Royals at home would be an odd time for me to suddenly stand and pledge allegiance to the “Why Not?” bandwagon, but…you know…Machado and all.

My original idea for my weekly “Reality Check” column was to write about the realities of 3B Manny Machado’s hot start (6-16, 3HR, 7RBI in four games). I had planned to say “I hate to be the bad guy, but let’s remember that the most likely scenario is that Machado won’t be able to continue this success for the rest of the season or likely even for the rest of August.”

I had intended to say something along the lines of “American League pitchers will likely end up catching up with Machado, who also won’t have the benefit of facing Kansas City Royals pitching every time out.” I was going to add thoughts along the lines of “let’s not forget that even OF Xavier Avery collected 10 hits in his first eight games after getting called up to Baltimore earlier in the season.”

I probably would have mentioned that in the coming week Machado would have to go up against veteran pitchers like Red Sox starters Josh Beckett (albeit a Beckett that has struggled mightily in 2012) and Clay Buchholz as well as reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and MVP Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers. It’s a bit more legitimate than a group of KC starters that included Will Smith, Luke Hochevar and Bruce Chen.

I also think I would have mentioned that Machado had not hit .300 in a single month while playing in the Eastern League this season, making a market correction from a very hot start to August seem likely at some point.

That’s what I WAS going to do. But for some reason, it just didn’t stick.

As we’ve repeated ad nauseum during the 2012 Orioles campaign, there is no statistical explanation for why the Birds have won 62 of their first 115 games. Those of us who have been watching understand that the team has benefitted from an incredible bullpen, a number of home runs, great success in close games and expert guidance from AL Manager of the Year candidate Buck Showalter.

That’s why I couldn’t write the Machado column. I didn’t have it in me.

Maybe there IS a chance Machado can continue to make significant contributions as a 20 year old in a lineup that has been seeking an additional spark. The Birds don’t have a full season .300 hitter in their lineup, but they’ve managed to get continued contributions from unexpected places.

Career journeyman INF Omar Quintanilla is batting .328 in just 20 games sense being acquired in a deal with the New York Mets. Veteran (and by “veteran” I mean “washed up”) OF Nate McClouth has eight hits in his first 24 AB’s since being called up from the Norfolk Tides. Even the miserable bat of Mark Reynolds (.211 and just nine home runs in 289 AB’s) provided what proved to be the game winning RBI in Sunday’s win over KC.

I don’t think it can be sustained. I didn’t think it could be sustained two months ago. I was wrong then. Maybe I’m wrong now. I don’t think I’m ever going to understand exactly how all of this has happened this way this season.

So can Manny Machado keep contributing to an Orioles team pushing towards an appearance in the postseason?

What the hell?

Or…why not?

-G

Actually, the Orioles are playing worse than normal. How does 18 -27 sound since May 25th? 1 out of 5 pitchers are left from the Opening Day starting rotation. Reimold on DL, Andino on DL, Hammel on DL, Roberts on DL again – he’s done. They have no offense, they are running the bases as if they were playing sandlot ball and they have committed the most errors in the majors. Now there’s a playoff team for ya! “Playoffs? Don’t talk about playoffs. You kidding me? Playoffs?” Thank you Jim Mora for one of the best post game speeches of all-time.

They lost their pitching and Markakis during the month of June and have not recovered. June and July are feeling quite different than April and May did. And it stinks. Actually, it’s worse than stinks but I won’t go there because those who know me …….know I would be ranting vehemently for 500 words and I would be banished from blogging in the northern hemisphere ever again. Buck-Buck has lost the team. There is no fire. There is a different atmosphere in the dugout. Earlier in the year, whether they were winning or losing, there was talk, unity and smiles in the dugout. Look in there now – you have seen it before – we have seen it for 15 years – dejection, 2-3 man groups huddled by themselves, numerous trips down the tunnel to the buffet table in the clubhouse.

I was at the Yard this past Saturday evening for the 5-hour 13 inning win. Which should have ended after 3 hours with an 8-1 win. No clutch hitting, lackadaisical base running, errors committed but not charged, ug-ly. There were some positives - throw out at home, clutch home runs, Miquel Socolovich, evidence of persistence. But man, talk about a roller coaster ride. Ended up being fun, because they won. The way they have looked this past month, I sure am glad I got to catch potentially the last glimpse of Orioles Magic this year.

I hope I’m wrong. There needs to be a radical change in the Clubhouse and Jim Thome is not the answer. What happened with the “grow the pitching concept”? Evidently the draught hit the Orioles farm team before it hit the countries farmlands. Arietta and Matusz – nice busts. They need more orange kool-aid or more orange-”juice”. Brady Anderson –  they need you now. Isn’t he the “how to take juice and not get caught coach?” Hey Brady – you might as well hit up Reynolds while you’re at it. Good ole Mark Reynolds, 7.5 million dollars worth of ineptitude. To make us all feel a little better – Reynolds makes $20,500 per day to play a game and “stink” at it. That’s $20,500 per day for 365 days. Athletes salaries and the amount of money spent on sports entertainment in this country is horrid. More evidence of just how screwed up our society really is (another blog  – on deck).

The only consistently good thing I have experienced these past two months with the Orioles is…………not as much Gary Thorne “In our Side”! Have you noticed? It has been quite a joy to turn on the tube and hear Jim Hunter’s voice instead of “I should only be doing bowling tournaments – Thorne”. Fred Manfra and Joe Angel are still top dogs and my preferred method of listening/watching a ballgame. It’s tough enough to watch the O’s annual extended losing streaks, but it is impossible to watch with bush league commentary. 

Enough doom and gloom. How about the weather? Yeah, another 100 degree cooker. ”Couldn’t Stand the Weather?” – Stevie Ray Vaughan. How about July 27th? Here’s something to look forward to – BSO plays Led Zep at Pier Six and the Olympics begin. The weather is going to stay hot, the Olympics are going to heat up our spirit and the O’s …………..well they need a heated Buck-Buck butt whoopin’ or they will be finishing below .500 and last…………….again. O’s need help, some back to the basics and alot of luck. Bring on the Summer Olympics.

D.I.Y.

Fedman

1.)    Who will carry this pitching staff through the dog days of summer?

Jason Hammel has undoubtedly been the best pitcher in the Orioles rotation in 2012. He leads the Orioles in wins at 8, ERA at 3.47, and strikeouts with 101. However, he has struggled in his last three starts, losing all three. And while a 3.47 ERA is not too shabby, not even a month ago on June 22^nd, Hammel was sporting a 2.61 ERA. Wei-Yin Chen has been the team’s second best starter, with a 7-5 record and 3.93 ERA. However, just like Hammel, Chen has cooled off as we enter the second half of the season.  He has not won a decision since June 17^th and he gave up a career high 3 HRs in his last start against lowly Seattle.

Hammel and Chen are both in their 20s and would benefit greatly from a veteran presence like a Ryan Dempster from Chicago. Even a James Shields of Tampa Bay, who is 30, has big game experience from pitching in the World Series and multiple playoff games. Baltimore would greatly benefit from having guys who have been in postseason contention battles leading their staff. Dempster is coming off the DL and James Shields has a sub-4 ERA throughout his career. Both names will be mentioned heavily come the trade deadline, and Baltimore should definitely be hitting the phones to see what they want.

2.)    Can Mark Reynolds be an effective hitter in this Orioles lineup?

The definition of effective for Mark Reynolds in comparison to other Major League hitters is much different. One can never expect that Reynolds will be a guy who gets on base, he has never hit above .280 in his entire career. Nor can one expect Mark to chill with the strikeouts either. Reynolds led the American League last year with 196 K’s, and that was only his 4^th highest total of his career! And don’t even get started on Mark Reynolds and his horrific attempt at fielding. He led the majors in 2011 with 31 errors last year.

Mark Reynolds is an effective hitter when he is hitting home runs. In 2011, he was fourth in the majors with 37 HRs. Despite all of his faults, when he was on, he was not a guy you wanted to face if you were an opposing pitcher. If you follow Earl Weaver’s Three Keys to Winning Baseball: Pitching, Defense, and Three Run Homers, you know for sure Reynolds did not fall into the first two categories. But with two on and two out in the bottom of the ninth, Mark Reynolds is that power hitter that you want at the plate. That is, of course, when he is not mired in a 3 for 25 slump like he was during interleague play.

3.)    Will Brian Roberts have any effect on the Orioles chances of making a postseason run?

Love the Orioles or not, you have to feel for Brian Roberts. I get that he was mentioned in the Mitchell Report back in 2007, and admitted to taking a shot of steroids in 2003. The key is that he admitted he this occasion, unlike a certain pitcher from the Yankees who claims he never did while he was throwing 100 mph at 45 years old. Anyway , Roberts has played in just 115 games since the beginning of the 2010 season, and has missed almost 13 months while recovering from multiple concussions. He returned to the Orioles on June 12^th, but was back on the DL not even a month later with a torn right hip muscle.

Now, the longtime leadoff 2B for the Orioles is weighing whether or not he should have surgery on the hip or rehab it on its. On one hand it would be great to see Roberts try and get back with the Orioles sooner than two months, if only to help them out defensively as they lead the MLB with 75 errors. On the other hand, if the Orioles are buyers at the deadline and find themselves in contention come September, how great would it be to have his leadership back in the clubhouse as the O’s make a playoff push?

4.)    Speaking of all this poor fielding, who can the O’s acquire now to help?

Did I mention Baltimore was dead last in fielding in Major League Baseball? If one could point a finger at the glaring hole in the infield for this problem, look no further than 3B. Not one of these guys has above average ability to play the hot corner: Robert Andino, Mark Reynolds, Chris Davis, Wilson Betemit or Ryan Flaherty. The Orioles are in a tie with Anaheim for the Wildcard, and pitching should not be the only area where the Orioles upgrade to make a legitimate run.

Two names come to mind that can immediately help Baltimore at 3B, without having to include Bundy, Machado or much else from the farm system. The first is Placido Polanco from the Philadelphia Phillies. A 36 year old playing for the last place, 13 games below .500 Phillies should come at a bargain for Baltimore. Polanco has won three gold gloves in the past five years, and has yet to make an error in 30 games at 3B with Philadelphia. His lifetime fielding percentages at 1B and 3B are the best in major league history. No, that is not a typo.

If Philadelphia decides they do not want to shop Polanco, the second team the Orioles  should call is San Diego to inquire about Chase Headley’s services. Headley is 28, eight years younger than Polanco, and possesses more ability to hit for power at this point of his career. Headley is an average defensive 3B, and unfortunately suffers from Mark Reynolds strikeout syndrome (He has twice in his career made more than 600 plate appearances, and in each of those seasons, he has struck out over 130 times). However, with San Diego not being competitive in 2012 and Headley heading into arbitration, his services would come at a bargain and he would at least push the guys who are already here in Baltimore.

5.)    Can the Bullpen perform as well as it did in the first half of the season?

This may be one of the biggest questions the Orioles face heading into the back half of 2012, if only because it has been the most reliable department of their team throughout the first half. The Orioles lead the American League with a 2.75 ERA as well as hold the best record out of the pen with a 17-6 mark. All Star Jim Johnson has been one of the most reliable closers in baseball, converting 26 of 27 save opportunities with a 1.21 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. Luis Ayala, Pedro Strop, and Darren O’Day all have sub-3 ERAs and have been very efficient in setting up Johnson before the 9^th inning.

Heavy is the head that wears the crown and the Orioles own a daunting task to match their outstanding performance post-All Star break. If history is any indicator for Jim Johnson, than the chances of this bullpen holding up are not very strong. His ERA is 3.98 post All Star break, compared to 2.56 before the break in his career. In addition, it has been 22 years since an AL bullpen statistically threw as well as the Orioles have over a full season. Oakland had a combined 2.35 mark in 1990. Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter will be closely monitoring the bullpen to keep those guys fresh and productive down the stretch. Let’s see how they hold up.

I would venture to say that no one predicted the Orioles to do as well as they have to this point in the season, except for maybe some of the “homers” out there.  It’s been a year of surprises and disappointments (those links courtesy our own Luke Jones) so far and right now the O’s are in somewhat of a purgatory or limbo.  As I said in one my earlier pieces, the next two weeks or so will be a turning point for the team and will show whether they are ready to contend for a playoff spot or gear up for the future.

Here are my five predictions for the second half of the year:

1. The Orioles will not end up “buying” any great players – Even though Dan Duquette has declared the Orioles “buyers” at the trade deadline, I don’t buy this for a second.  Up until this point, Duquette has given every indication that he believes the right way to build a team is through the farm system.  He really didn’t take a huge risk on Jim Thome (which appears like a failure so far) and I don’t think he will be willing to give up what is needed to get someone like Zach Grienke, Matt Garza, or Wandy Rodriguez which would be some middle to high level prospects.

2. The Orioles will trade Wilson Betemit or Mark Reynolds – There are a few teams that are in need of a quality third baseman and there aren’t many of those around.  The Orioles have two.  To call them “quality” might be a stretch but they can certainly fill a void for a team in need.  Nick Markakis’s (returning to the lineup Friday) and Endy Chavez’s (now on a rehab tour) returns will add depth to the outfield allowing Chris Davis to return to the first base position which will make a trade of either of the two third basemen even more logical.

3. Brian Matusz, Jake Arietta, and Tommy Hunter will not return to the MLB level – They may come back next year but if you look at Chris Tillman and the good that working with Rick Peterson in the minors did, I think the Orioles will be wise and keep them down to figure things out.  The process of identifying their problems and fixing them is a somewhat lengthy process also.  It requires in depth recording and analysis of the pitching delivery and then practice of the corrections made to it.

4. J.J. Hardy will continue to slump – I never thought that J.J. would be as good as he was last year.  This year he is clearly fatigued and maybe injured, batting only .224/.262/.380. That’s bad any way you look at it.  I have heard some things about him dealing with shoulder pain and if you have ever played baseball, you know how hard it is to swing if your shoulder isn’t 100%.

And finally…

5. The Orioles will not finish above .500 – As much as I would like them to, I just don’t see it happening.  The way the Orioles were having success (good pitching and hitting home runs) is not a sustainable winning formula, first of all, and it has completely unraveled in the past 20 games.  Remember, this isn’t just a few game slump we are looking at.  We are witnessing a bad baseball team at the moment and one that I think has reached its ceiling.

I know these predictions are a little pessimistic but I’m just trying to be realistic and look at the facts with this team.  They aren’t playing well, no matter how you slice it.  You can only go on history and if you do that, there is every indication the team will start trading away players at the first sign of trouble, thus making the team worse.

Extra credit prediction: Adam Jones will continue being a big mouth (and I’m putting that nicely).  I’m really not sure why so many people like the guy.  Since his new contract (all $85 million of it) he has been below average at best. He constantly mouths off at fans on Twitter and says how he and the team need to do better yet doesn’t make good on his statements.  Adam needs to start putting his money (no pun intended) where his mouth is and play some good baseball.

Follow me on Twitter @RealJohnSears

The improbable success of the Orioles in the first half of 2012 has the team in a precarious position as they prepare for the back end of the schedule. After 14 years of futility, the playoffs are a possibility and the city is feeling cautious optimism, which is still a far cry from euphoria, but a refreshing change from the gloom and doom that’s defined the club for as long as most can remember. Therein lies the rub.

The O’s success is encouraging enough to lead fans to contemplate the team taking the next step toward contention and adding some talent for the stretch run. The AL East is as up for grabs as it’s been in years, and safe money says that won’t last long. And the O’s while successful so far, haven’t exactly done much to suggest they’ll sustain this success for the long term, or even for the remainder of the season. There are encouraging talents in the minor leagues who could be big parts of a suddenly brighter future, or prospects who could be parlayed into major league talent now, while the iron is hot, in an effort to at least put a bookend on the Orioles’ 14-year playoff drought. The fans are divided (no surprise there), and the O’s won’t be able to please them all.

While the addition of talent is encouraging, and certainly good fodder for talk radio, the likelihood that the O’s will stand pat is real. So let’s instead look at some ways that they could be better without adding any players, but by simply putting the talent at hand to better use.

The Joe Maddon style of management is in full effect this season in the AL East as a number of teams, either by design or necessity, have taken to shaking up their lineups in an effort to capitalize on hot streaks, stimulate slumping bats, and force their players to compete with each other in a true meritocracy. Here are a few suggestions on how the O’s could improve theirs.

First they need to do some self-scouting. The Orioles are not a team that manufactures runs. They don’t bunt, they don’t steal bases, and their offense is driven by homeruns. They don’t have a true leadoff hitter, and based on the aforementioned, they don’t really need one. The Orioles most productive hitter overall also happens to be their most likely to swap a base. The Orioles should be batting Adam Jones leadoff. If Jones is the O’s best bat, the Orioles need to get him to the plate as often as possible, Batting him in the leadoff spot insures it. It also allows the O’s to put their less productive singles hitters at the bottom of the order and hope to have Jones knocking them in, in innings after the first.

I put up some numbers the other day, ranking the Orioles production per 100 plate appearances. Some of the numbers were rather interesting, including the fact that Mark Reynolds makes less outs than every Oriole except Jim Thome, and that Adam Jones gets approximately .5 bases per trip to the plate (tops on the team by a lot).

Reynolds has been disappointing in the power department this season, but his career numbers suggest that a correction is in order. Having Adam Jones on base in front of him, and a productive bat behind him might get Reynolds more fastballs to hit too. Maybe Reynolds in the 2-hole isn’t as silly as it sounds, at least against lefties.

Below are my suggestions for the Orioles best lineups vs. left and right-handers, using only the talent available on the Major League roster, based on their production per 100 plate appearances (listed here) and their triple slash splits vs. those pitchers (listed below).

Orioles vs. Lefties

CF – Adam Jones (294/322/471)

1B – Mark Reynolds (240/377/380)

C – Matt Wieters (384/444/575)

DH – Chris Davis (316/328/526)

SS – JJ Hardy (298/337/452)

RF – Nick Markakis (231/322/385)

LF – Steve Pearce (310/344/690)

3B – Steve Tolleson (250/325/472)

2B – Robert Andino (227/275/347)

Orioles vs. Righties

CF – Adam Jones (287/332/555)

RF – Nick Markakis (265/337/476)

1B – Chris Davis (258/311/459)

3B – Wilson Betemit (288/344/497)

DH – Jim Thome (258/361/587) or Mark Reynolds (196/320/385)

C – Matt Wieters (200/287/381)

SS – JJ Hardy (201/239/357)

2B – Robert Andino (233/300/307)

LF – Xavier Avery (257/313/392)

After recognizing the biggest individual surprises of the Orioles’ first half, it’s strange finding a large number of individual disappointments despite the club’s 45-40 start.

Amazingly, the Orioles have managed to find so much success despite their obvious flaws as a number of individuals have failed to meet expectations and others have been injured, leaving major holes and question marks as the club begins the second half on Friday. Even though they currently hold the second wild card position in the American League, the club’s minus-36 run differential (12th in the AL) is indicative of a group due for a substantial market correction in terms of wins and losses.

Many wonder how much longer the Orioles will remain afloat — in terms of staying in the wild card race, at least — after losing 13 of their last 19 game and scoring only 61 runs in their last 22 contests. In addition to their recent offensive struggles, three-fifths of the starting rotation entering the season was recently demoted to Triple-A Norfolk, putting an even greater strain on the Orioles’ dominating bullpen to keep them in games.

Regardless of how optimistic or pessimistic you might be about the Orioles’ chances, the next two weeks of baseball will go a long way in determining how active the club will be at the trade deadline.

Here are my five biggest individual disappointments of the Orioles’ first half:

Not-so-honorable mention: Tommy Hunter, Kevin Gregg, Nolan Reimold’s neck injury, Tsuyoshi Wada’s elbow injury, Brian Roberts’ hip injury

5. Endy Chavez

The 34-year-old wasn’t signed to be a full-time starter, but the Orioles figured they were getting a decent insurance policy for Opening Day left fielder Nolan Reimold when Chavez inked a one-year deal worth $1.5 million. Instead, the 170-pound outfielder hasn’t even hit his weight in an injury-plagued, miserable first half.

While Chavez has made two different trips to the disabled list with intercostal and hamstring injuries, his abysmal .162 average in 105 at-bats makes him fortunate to even have a job at this point. Chavez figured to become the default left fielder when Reimold went down with a herniated disc in his neck, but his poor play has created a colossal hole in left field that manager Buck Showalter has attempted to fill with converted infielders (Steve Tolleson and Ryan Flaherty), journeymen veterans (Steve Pearce and Bill Hall), and a raw rookie (Xavier Avery).

Having completed his minor league rehab assignment over the All-Star break, Chavez is expected to rejoin the club on Friday, but his .402 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) must climb immediately for the organization to justify keeping him around much longer. The left-hander has a career .269 average over 11 major league seasons and hit .301 over 256 at-bats in a part-time role with Texas last year, making his horrendous first half even more shocking.

4. J.J. Hardy

Coming off a tremendous year in his first season in Baltimore, the shortstop has dealt with a tender shoulder since spring training and his production at the plate has dropped dramatically in 2012.

Hardy has never been a great hitter for average (.259 in eight seasons), but his .224 mark at the break reflects the horrendous slump he’s endured since late May. In his last 37 games, the 29-year-old is hitting .172 with two home runs and nine runs batted in.

The club’s widespread struggles at the plate and injuries to Nolan Reimold and Nick Markakis have limited questions about Hardy remaining in the No. 2 spot in the order, but Showalter will have no choice but to drop Hardy in the order if his .262 on-base percentage doesn’t improve soon. Even if Hardy’s production reflected his career numbers, he’s more suited to hit in the No. 6 or 7 spot to drive in more runs with his above-average power at the shortstop position.

Hardy’s defense is still a major asset for a defensively-challenged club, but the Orioles desperately need him to look more like the hitter he was in 2011 if they’re going to remain in the playoff hunt in the second half.

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The All-Star break is upon us. And, if the season ended today, the Orioles would be headed to the playoffs. Thursday’s disaster with the Angels notwithstanding, the Orioles have reached halftime without completely faceplanting as most of us expected they would. The bullpen has been the most pleasant surprise, with an ERA still close to the best in baseball. The offense (long balls in particular) has also been a big reason for the success, with Adam Jones on pace for 40 homeruns and several others flirting with 30.

However, just like last year, the most glaring weakness has been the defense. Unfortunately, the O’s also lead the league in errors, which has cost them at least three or four winnable games already this season. The other coin flip has been the starting pitching, which lately seems to always be either stellar or awful on any given night. Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen are aces more often than not, but the other three rotation spots have been consistently shaky with occasional flashes of brilliance.

The Orioles have already made a splash in the trade market this year by acquiring DH Jim Thome from the struggling Phillies for a pair of minor leaguers. For awhile now, I’d been wondering if they were really serious about being buyers this year like Dan Duquette said, and if, to that end, they would be looking to pick up another legitimate starting pitcher. Today when I checked my fantasy team (the Mercersburg Rebels, currently in 1^st place), the news feed told me that the Orioles are trying to make a trade with the Brewers for RHP Zack Greinke. It also mentioned that the O’s have two highly-touted prospects in Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado that might be part of such a deal.

For the last few years, I’ve always made it a point to have Greinke on my fantasy team. He routinely goes deep into games, puts up lots of strikeouts, and has a very good ERA and WHIP. He won the 2009 AL Cy Young with the Royals, no easy feat when one considers that they’ve been about as bad as the Orioles over the last decade. This year, his record is 9-2, while his team is currently under .500 by five games.

So, all indications are that he would be an excellent pickup if the Orioles can pull this off. However, I would not part with Bundy or Machado to make it happen. Since Milwaukee lost Prince Fielder, they’re in need of a firstbaseman. Perhaps Mark Reynolds could be part of this trade? True, he’s not crushing the ball like he was last year, but Miller Park is definitely hitter-friendly. And now that the Orioles have Chris Davis, there isn’t a tremendous need for Reynolds here anymore. It would also make a big dent in that error rate.

Another thing to consider here is that the era of Brian Roberts is, regrettably, over. He’s given us some tremendous years, but unfortunately the Orioles simply cannot depend on him as an everyday player anymore. Therefore, letting go of Manny Machado would be unwise, because he will be coming of age right about the time when Roberts is officially finished. I don’t think I even need to elaborate on why trading Dylan Bundy would be a bad move, unless of course the Brewers are offering significantly more than just Greinke.

I have to admit, it’s a VERY nice thought that the Orioles’ rotation could eventually consist of Hammel, Chen, Greinke, Britton, and whoever gets their act together. That, coupled with Jones, Wieters, Davis, Markakis, Hardy, and our current bullpen would almost have to be a serious contender.

However, I must reiterate that even if this becomes reality, we are not yet free of Peter The Terrible, and I still remain unconvinced that the Orioles have truly turned the corner as long as he remains in the warehouse.

What do you think? Should the Orioles trade for Greinke? Is there someone else out there you’d like to see them pursue? Comments are always welcome.

Twitter: @RealJohnSears

I am a believer in the Orioles.  There I said it.  I have been putting it off throughout the season because I didn’t want to get my heart broken again, but look at them!  They are in second place in the A.L. East (the toughest division in baseball, if not all of sports); only 2.5 games behind the Yankees.  And they own the first wildcard spot.  It seems every series we say, “Oh, this will show a lot about the team if they can win this series” and they do.  They have proven time and time again that they can do it.

There are two things that the Orioles can do at this point.  They can stand pat and see how the season unfolds…or they can be aggressive and go after players like Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano, who have been rumored as possible targets for the team. 

The franchise owes it to the fans to at least try.  Just show some effort towards making a run at this thing.  The team now is only a few pieces away. 

Brian Roberts’ return was much needed and has added a proven lead-off hitter to the lineup.  In only 11 games back from having not played in over year he is batting .250 with an on base percentage of .292.  These numbers should only improve as he gets back into the swing of things but they are already better than Robert Andino who was the everyday second basemen till Roberts came back.

Nick Markakis returning to the lineup soon is also very encouraging.  The Orioles will get a much needed spark in an offense that has been somewhat anemic lately.  Once Markakis returns, the Orioles would be best be served to bat him in the two spot and move Hardy down to the five.  Hardy’s OBP is lower than previous years but his power numbers are still pretty decent.  He would be best fitted to drive in runs lower in the order rather than relying on him to get on base, at the 2 spot, which he simply has not done on a consistent basis this year.

With the news of Nolan Reimold likely being done for the season, left field now becomes a whole that needs to be addressed by some other means.  This is where a trade for Alfonso Soriano would do wonders.  While he isn’t what he once was, he is still better than any option we currently have.  He is batting .273 with a .326 OBP, which is better than anyone who we have thrown out there this year.  Not to mention how fun it would be for me to watch him play in person.  He has always been one of my favorite players.

(Side note: I feel bad for Adam Jones at this point.  With Nick Markakis being hurt the last couple of weeks, he has had a myriad of players out there next to him.  It seems like it’s someone different every day.  I wouldn’t even blame him for not bothering to learn their names.  If they traded for Soriano they would have an everyday outfield.  Barring any further injuries.)

Outside of Hammel and Chen, the Orioles starting pitching has been a dice roll this year.  Matusz has shown improvement but in my opinion still shouldn’t be on a major league roster and Arietta has been painful to watch more often than not.  This is where a Matt Garza would do wonders.  Having a proven, consistent pitcher such as him could stabilize an otherwise tumultuous rotation.  He is posting the lowest WHIP of his career at 1.091 and his lowest BB/9 innings total as well at 2.5.  Having another quality starter would also benefit the bullpen in the long run.  Matt Garza can be used in a Jeremy Guthrie type role where, at the very least, he can out there and give you six or seven solid innings.

The corner infield spots have frustrating so far this year.  Betemit and Reynolds are downright awful fielders (a combined .886 fielding percentage…excuse me while I throw up) and haven’t made it easy to keep them in there either, with their below average performances at the plate.  Watching Reynolds strike out is glorious at times though, so there’s that.  Chris Davis is mired in a slump at the plate which isn’t encouraging for one of the most consistent hitters on the team at this point.  Hopefully they will get it together on the field and their bats will start heating up because there aren’t many options out there to address this problem.  I suggest throwing Betemit into a trade at the deadline for one of my earlier suggestions and putting Andino at third and Reynolds at DH.  I simply cannot bear to watch Reynolds try to field and throw a baseball ever again.

Of course, all this is predicated on whether Duquette can convince Mr. Angelos to pull the trigger on some of these deals.  The only sure fire way the Orioles are going to be able to pull off trades are if there is some cash thrown in.  They just do not have the depth in the minor leagues to be giving up many players. 

I think Duquette has earned our trust at this point.  Whether he has gotten lucky with some of these moves or he knew what was going to happen, remains to be seen.  I hope for the teams sake he continues to make himself look like a genius though.  Wouldn’t it be fun to see the O’s in the playoffs  again, or at the very least playing meaningful games in September?

Chris Davis might be the best example of what the 2012 Orioles are all about.

Entering the season with untapped potential and more failure than success at the big-league level, both Davis and the Orioles have blossomed in the first 2 1/2 months of the season, surpising critics and even the most optimistic fans in what’s been Baltimore’s best start since 2005.

The 26-year-old Davis has morphed into a fan favorite in his first full season with the Orioles, not only becoming one of the team’s most productive hitters but providing one of the craziest memories in club history when he pitched two innings to earn the win in a 17-inning marathon at Fenway Park on May 6.

Add a broken-bat home run against Pittsburgh last week and his first games in right field at the big-league level this past weekend in Atlanta and you have all the makings of a folk hero in Baltimore.

Much like the 39-27 Orioles, at times, it’s difficult to believe what you’re seeing when watching the designated hitter/first baseman/right fielder/pitching extraordinaire.

But there’s no understating how important Davis’ emergence has been this season, especially with stints on the disabled list by Nolan Reimold, Mark Reynolds, and Nick Markakis. Center fielder Adam Jones has emerged as a superstar by leading the Orioles in batting average, home runs, runs batted in, slugging percentage, and runs scored, but Davis ranks second or third in all five of those categories in becoming a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat in the lineup.

His 12 home runs and 60 strikeouts in 211 at-bats entering Monday night aren’t overly surprising given Davis’ reputation when the Orioles acquired him in the Koji Uehara trade last July, but his .294 average defies what we saw over his last three years in Texas where Davis went from looking like a future star in 2008 to a player fitting the mold of a “Quad-A” hitter before being dealt.

The raw power has never come into question — evident by his broken-bat homer to right field off Pittsburgh reliever Tommy Watson last Wednesday — as Davis hit 17 home runs and batted .285 in 295 at-bats during his rookie season with the Rangers in 2008. However, the left-handed slugger quickly earned the reputation of a hitter who struck out too much, didn’t walk enough, and struggled to handle plus-fastballs in the major leagues. Those flaws led his batting average to plummet to .238 in 2009 and .192 in 2010, causing Davis to bounce back and forth between the Rangers and Triple A in his final three years in Texas.

It was difficult to project Davis as anything more than a less-patient, less-powerful version of Reynolds entering the season, which didn’t speak highly for his potential when considering how flawed Reynolds is as a player.

In 2012, Davis hasn’t made any dramatic changes to his overall approach — 60 strikeouts to just 13 walks — but his improvement against plus-fastballs has led to the substantial increase in average. A career .204 hitter in 255 career at-bats against power pitchers (those in the top third in the league in strikeouts plus walks) entering 2012, Davis has handled them at a .286 rate in 42 at-bats this season.

Davis has also handled left-handed pitching at a far more successful clip, batting .327 in 53 plate appearances against southpaws in 2012 after hitting only .236 against lefties in 275 career at-bats entering 2012.

While his high strikeout and low walk totals aren’t indicative of a hitter that will continue to hover around the .300 mark, Davis has been a model of consistency through his first 57 games this season. Aside from an abysmal seven-game stretch in May in which he went 3-for-28 and struck out 14 times, the left-hander has consistently sat somewhere between .290 and .310 as we reach the final two weeks of June. His .355 batting average for balls put in play indicates Davis has been fortunate, but it’s actually lower than the .366 combined clip he posted last year for the Rangers and Orioles.

When seeing the ball well, Davis shows exceptional power to straightaway center and the opposite field has eight of his 12 home runs have traveled in either of those directions.

After Markakis was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a broken hamate bone, manager Buck Showalter turned to Davis to hold down the No. 3 spot in the order as the Orioles were depleted even further offensively. He’s hit only .206 in 34 at-bats batting third, but the lineup shift could present an interesting decision for Showalter when Markakis returns — projected to be some time during the next homestand, according to the right fielder.

Should Davis remain around the .300 mark, would you consider keeping him in the third spot and moving Markakis to the No. 2 slot? The move would allow Showalter to drop J.J. Hardy in the order, which would make sense with the shortstop hitting only .253 despite 11 home runs.

Whatever the Baltimore skipper decides, it’s a good problem to have.

For a team suffering its fair share of injuries and not receiving the same power numbers it enjoyed from Reynolds a season ago, Davis’ emergence has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the season.

His willingness to do whatever is asked of him reflects the spirit of the 2012 Orioles.

Need someone to pitch? Not a problem.

You want to put me in right field in a National League ballpark, even though I’ve never played there in the big leagues? Sure thing.

Whatever it takes to win.

Much like watching the Orioles, you keep waiting and wondering if it’s going to last, but Davis has given no indication of slowing down any time soon.

And he just might be realizing the potential so many saw in him when he first arrived in the big leagues.

PRESS RELEASE

The Orioles today announced that they have reinstated infielder Mark Reynolds from the disabled list and placed right-handed pitcher Stu Pomeranz on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to May 26, with a left oblique injury.

Reynolds was placed on the disabled list retroactive to May 11 with a strained left oblique. He is batting .191/.324/.337 with two home runs and nine RBI in 27 games for the Orioles this season. He has hit safely in five of his last seven games before going on the DL, batting .348/.484/.739 with five extra-base hits in that time.

Pomeranz has pitched to a 3.00 ERA (6.0IP, 2ER) in three appearances for the Orioles. He did not allowed an earned run in 10 appearances this season with Triple-A Norfolk (five games, 10.0IP) and Double-A Bowie (five games, 13.1IP), striking out 35 and walking three.