During the 2012 season, Drew Forrester and Luke Jones of The Morning Reaction will provide the “10-Game Scorecard” for the Orioles, rating the club in 10-game increments in a number of categories and looking ahead to how Baltimore will fare over the next 10 games on the schedule.

To hear the full explanation of the inaugural “10-Game Scorecard” during Tuesday’s show, click HERE.

1. Should the Orioles have been better or worse than their 6-4 mark?
Drew: Better
Luke: Better

2. Most Valuable Player/Least Valuable Player
Drew: MVP – Jake Arrieta; LVP – Nick Johnson
Luke: MVP – Matt Wieters; LVP – Nick Johnson/Kevin Gregg (tie)

3. Biggest surprise
Drew: Chris Davis
Luke: The improved command of Jake Arrieta

4. Best thing about the 10-game stretch
Drew: Starting pitching
Luke: Starting pitching

5. Ten games from now…
Drew: The real Ronny Paulino will show up.
Luke: People will be warming to the idea of Nolan Reimold as the leadoff hitter.

6. Record in the next 10 games (three with Chicago, three with Los Angeles, three with Toronto, one with Oakland)
Drew: 5-5
Luke: 5-5

7. Stock rising/falling over the next 10 games
Drew: Rising – Nick Markakis; Falling – Chris Davis
Luke: Rising – J.J. Hardy; Falling – Jason Hammel

8. Grading Buck Showalter in the first 10 games
Drew: B
Luke: C

The Orioles have spent plenty of time over the years pointing out the economic disparities in baseball that contribute to their inability to compete against the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox in the American League East.

However, no road destination in the AL East has been a bigger nightmare for the Orioles over the last three seasons than Rogers Centre in Toronto, where they will play a three-game series against the Blue Jays this weekend. Baltimore is an abysmal 4-23 in Canada since 2009 and has lost 26 of its last 31 games north of the border since June 2008. The horrific spell reached its low point last June before the Orioles finally snapped a 16-game losing streak in Toronto.

In contrast, the Orioles are 19-35 at Fenway Park, 15-39 in the Bronx, and 24-30 at Tropicana Field over the last three seasons.

With the Blue Jays off to a 4-2 start after an impressive Grapefruit League, the Orioles will have their hands full this weekend against the club that many view as an emerging threat in the division. And the man who’s led the big leagues in home runs over the last two seasons, Jose Bautista, hasn’t even started hitting yet (.174 and one home run).

The club’s futility against the Blue Jays in recent years is a prime example of why many fans grow weary from the likes of former executives such as Andy MacPhail and current executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette belaboring how the Yankees and Red Sox can spend more money than everyone else in the division.

That argument might hold some legitimacy if the Orioles were routinely pushing into the 85-to-90 win range on a semi-regular basis and falling short of the postseason. But when you’re not even competitive against the Blue Jays — who have finished in fourth place the last four seasons — it’s difficult to buy economics as the primary reason for the club’s failures.

Taking the lead

It’s been a rocky start for Nolan Reimold as the leadoff hitter, with the left fielder hitting just .238 and failing to register a walk in the first week of the season.

Hardly a conventional choice for the top spot in the order, Reimold is eighth among regulars in pitches seen per plate appearance (3.52) and has appeared to be overanxious at the plate in his five starts at the leadoff spot. Of course, we’re talking about a very small sample size from which to draw any conclusions, and it’s unlikely that manager Buck Showalter abandons the idea before at least a few more weeks of using Reimold in the top spot.

Many fans and media have criticized the idea of Reimold as the leadoff hitter, but the Orioles aren’t exactly dealing with a plethora of viable options to use in the top spot with second baseman Brian Roberts still sidelined.

J.J. Hardy served in the role for an extended time last season, but his .310 on-base percentage in 2011 and .320 career clip doesn’t exactly stand out as a no-brainer for the spot. Second baseman Robert Andino could eventually settle into the spot if he continues to develop as a regular, but Showalter appears content to leave Andino in the ninth spot to help turn the lineup over. Andino’s career on-base percentage is only .304 as he’s served in a limited fashion in his eight-year big league career.

Strictly looking at the numbers, right fielder Nick Markakis is the Orioles’ best option to hit in the leadoff spot, but it’s clear Showalter wants to keep him in a run-producing role. It’s easy to crunch the numbers and discuss the matter as if everything were in a vacuum, but any manager must always deal with egos and politics in the clubhouse when trying to fill out a lineup.

In a perfect world, Reimold would not be the leadoff hitter, but his underrated speed and .336 career on-base percentage are legitimate reasons to allow the experiment to continue for a few more weeks before making a switch.

Too much discussion is exhausted on the batting order — you simply want your best hitters getting as many plate appearances as possible — but it doesn’t take a sabermetrician to see more production is needed from the leadoff spot than what the Orioles have gotten in the first week.

What to do with Reynolds?

Continue >>>

BALTIMORE — Happy Opening Day as the Orioles begin the 2012 season by welcoming the Minnesota Twins to town.

With plenty planned for the 20th anniversary of the first Opening Day at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, there is sure to be a buzz in the air in what continues to be an event in Baltimore despite tempered expectations for the season. The battery that started the 1992 opener, pitcher Rick Sutcliffe and catcher Chris Hoiles, will handle the ceremonial first pitch.

After undergoing abdominal surgery in early January, right fielder Nick Markakis says he is healthy and ready to go for the start of the season. The 28-year-old was limited to just 24 spring at-bats but stated earlier in the spring he needed fewer than that to be ready for the regular season.

“Physically, I think I’m about as good as I can be right now,” Markakis said. It’s just a matter of getting out and playing. All the rehab and hard work in spring training is behind me and now I can focus on the season.”

While Markakis said he never doubted whether he would be ready for Opening Day, manager Buck Showalter felt uneasy after seeing how limited his No. 3 hitter was in the first week to 10 days of spring training.

Showalter also confirmed right-hander Jim Johnson will be his closer with Kevin Gregg settling into a less-defined late-inning role.

As anticipated, left fielder Nolan Reimold will begin the season as the Orioles’ leadoff hitter despite hardly looking like a conventional option. Entering his fourth season, Reimold is eager for the opportunity and wants to capitalize on what looks like a more defined role in the regular lineup than last year.

In 847 career plate appearances, Reimold owns a .328 on-base percentage — a number the Orioles would like to see increase if he’s going to remain atop the order.

“The goal’s always to get on base; the goal’s always to get hits” Reimold said about his new spot in the order. “In that aspect, nothing really changes.”

Here are today’s lineups:

Minnesota
CF Denard Span
SS Jamey Carroll
C Joe Mauer
DH Justin Morneau
LF Josh Willingham
RF Ryan Doumit
3B Danny Valencia
1B Chris Parmelee
2B Alexi Casilla

RHP Carl Pavano

Baltimore
LF Nolan Reimold
SS J.J. Hardy
RF Nick Markakis
CF Adam Jones
C Matt Wieters
DH Wilson Betemit
3B Mark Reynolds
1B Chris Davis
2B Robert Andino

RHP Jake Arrieta

Follow @WNST on Twitter for the latest for Camden Yards and be sure to visit the BuyAToyota.com Audio Vault to hear from Buck Showalter, Nolan Reimold, and Nick Markakis prior to this afternoon’s game right here.

They’re not going to be good, but they’re going to play games anyway. Tuesday on “The Reality Check”, I offered my best educated guess on how to put together the Baltimore Orioles’ 25 man Opening Day roster.

A lot of this appears to be set in stone already. As a reminder, I’m not in Sarasota covering Spring Training. I’m in Towson looking out the window at the deer here at 1550 Hart Rd.

I’m not complaining by the way.

OUTFIELDERS (4):

Nolan Reimold
Adam Jones
Nick Markakis
Endy Chavez

INFIELDERS/DESIGNATED HITTER (7):
Mark Reynolds
JJ Hardy
Robert Andino
Ryan Flaherty
Chris Davis
Wilson Betemit
Nick Johnson

CATCHERS (2):
Matt Wieters

Ronny Paulino

STARTING ROTATION-IN ORDER (5):
Jake Arrieta
Jason Hammel
Wei-Yin Chen

Tommy Hunter
Dana Eveland

BULLPEN (7):
Kevin Gregg
Matt Lindstrom

Luis Ayala
Tsuyoshi Wada
Jim Johnson
Pedro Strop
Troy Patton

(DISABLED LIST: P Zach Britton, 2B Brian Roberts, P Darren O’Day & P Alfredo Simon)

ROSTER NOTES: The O’s will be able to add Johnson and Paulino to the roster by sampling moving OF Jai Miller and C Taylor Teagarden off the roster. I’m guessing the team will now choose to leave Brian Matusz in Norfolk to protect a rotation spot for Britton when he’s healthy. There are other roster options (including leaving Wada on the DL) that could open up a spot for a Chris Tillman, O’Day or Simon.

-G

The Baltimore Orioles are now two games into the second half of the 2011 season. On Wednesday’s edition of “The Morning Reaction” on AM1570 WNST, Drew Forrester and I gave our grades for Orioles players during the first half of the season.

CATCHERS:

Matt Wieters-Glenn Clark B+, Drew Forrester B
Jake Fox-Glenn D, Drew D
Craig Tatum-Glenn C-, Drew B

INFIELDERS:

Derrek Lee-Glenn D+, Drew D
Brian Roberts-Glenn D, Drew D
JJ Hardy-Glenn A-, Drew A
Mark Reynolds-Glenn B-, Drew C-
Robert Andino-Glenn C+, Drew C
Blake Davis-Glenn C, Drew B-
Cesar Izturis-Glenn D, Drew D
Ryan Adams-Glenn C, Drew D
Brandon Snyder-Glenn C-, Drew C-

OUTFIELDERS/DESIGNATED HITTERS:

Luke Scott-Glenn D, Drew D
Adam Jones-Glenn B-, Drew B+
Nick Markakis-Glenn B-, Drew C-
Nolan Reimold-Glenn C+, Drew C-
Felix Pie-Glenn F, Drew D-
Vladimir Guerrero-Glenn D+, Drew D+

STARTING PITCHERS:

Jeremy Guthrie-Glenn C+, Drew C+
Jake Arrieta-Glenn B-, Drew C
Zach Britton-Glenn B, Drew B
Brian Matusz-Glenn D, Drew F
Chris Tillman-Glenn D, Drew D
Brad Bergesen-Glenn D+, Drew C-
Chris Jakubauskas-Glenn C-, Drew D

RELIEF PITCHERS:

Koji Uehara-Glenn B, Drew B+
Jim Johnson-Glenn B+, Drew B-
Pedro Viola-Glenn C, Drew C
Kevin Gregg-Glenn C-, Drew C+
Alfredo Simon-Glenn C-, Drew C-
Jeremy Accardo-Glenn D, Drew D
Mike Gonzalez-Glenn D, Drew D
Josh Rupe-Glenn D, Drew D
Jason Berken-Glenn C, Drew C-
Clay Rapada-Glenn D-, Drew B-
Troy Patton-Glenn D, Drew F

MANAGER:

Buck Showalter-Glenn C-, Drew B+

If you missed the breakdown of our midseason grades on Wednesday’s edition of “The Morning Reaction”, hit the BuyAToyota.com Audio Vault at WNST.net!

Flexing my mic muscles since 1983…

-G

**Join us in the Orange Crush live chat at 7:00 as the Orioles welcome the St. Louis Cardinals to Baltimore for the first time ever in an interleague three-game set with Zach Britton taking the hill against Kyle Lohse**

BALTIMORE — Feeling refreshed after an off day and a series win over Cincinnati over the weekend, the Orioles welcome the struggling St. Louis Cardinals to town for the first time ever.

Still reeling from the loss of Albert Pujols, the Cardinals (41-38) have lost 12 of 15 games and have scored just 21 runs in six games since losing arguably the best hitter on the planet, 12 coming in their only win during that stretch.The pitching hasn’t helped either, as St. Louis has posted a major-league-worst 4.95 earned run average in the month of June.

On the other hand, the Orioles (35-40) found their bats heating up over the weekend, hitting nine home runs in the Reds series to give them 32 home runs in the month of June to lead the American League. The left side of the Baltimore infield has been especially potent this month, as shortstop J.J. Hardy and third baseman Mark Reynolds make up the only left-side infield combination in baseball to have 10 or more homers each.

However, the pitching continues to be a concern as starters struggle to pitch deep into games. Rookie Zach Britton goes to the mound in the series opener seeking his sixth win of the season. The southpaw has struggled in his last five starts, posting a 5.14 ERA and a 1-3 record.

Britton will be opposed by Kyle Lohse, the former Twins pitcher who will make his fifth career start against the Orioles. The 32-year-old right-hander is 2-1 with a 4.39 ERA in 26 2/3 career innings against Baltimore, but has not faced the Orioles since 2006.

In injury news, Alfredo Simon will remain in Frederick on Tuesday night and a decision will be made Wednesday regarding whether to activate him from the 15-day disabled list or make another rehab appearance. Manager Buck Showalter said the club is “more likely than less likely” Simon is back for the second game against the Cardinals.

Simon will be viewed as a bullpen arm for the time being, though that could change given the uncertain standing of the starting rotation in recent weeks.

In his pregame comments to the media, Showalter expressed frustration with his inability to find at-bats for outfielder Nolan Reimold. The 27-year-old has not started since June 19 against Washington and has not appeared in a game since June 22 in Pittsburgh.

“It’s been a challenge, and we keep hoping that Luke [Scott] can get it going,” Showalter said. “We went through a period where there were a lot of left-handed pitchers, so it was pretty easy [getting him at-bats]. We’re going through a period now where it’s just the opposite. It’s something on my list of things that kind of bug me. That’s one of them.”

I also asked Showalter whether there was concern with Vladimir Guerrero’s lack of power and production at the cleanup position. It’s a subject about which I’ll be writing in more detail at WNST.net on Wednesday, but the Orioles manager is aware of Guerrero’s season-long power shortage and its impact on the rest of the lineup.

“We all know he’s not conventional, and you keep trying to trust that, if there’s such a thing as trusting unconventionality,” Showalter said. “That was one of the spots (where we’re struggling) I was talking about earlier — other than the average, really. In fact, his average, lifetime (.318), is higher than that.

“If we need to make an adjustment at some point, we will. We’ll see how it goes between now and the All-Star Break.”

Here are tonight’s starting lineups:

St. Louis
SS Ryan Theriot
RF Jon Jay
LF Matt Holliday
1B Lance Berkman
3B David Freese
CF Colby Rasmus
C Yadier Molina
DH Mark Hamilton
2B Nick Punto

SP Kyle Lohse (7-4, 2.91 ERA)

Baltimore
SS J.J. Hardy
RF Nick Markakis
CF Adam Jones
DH Vladimir Guerrero
C Matt Wieters
1B Derrek Lee
LF Luke Scott
3B Mark Reynolds
2B Robert Andino

SP Zach Britton (6-5, 3.19 ERA)

As we do for every weeknight home game, join us in the Orange Crush live chat beginning at 7:00. Talk about the game with us as an array of WNST.net personalities visit the cyber sports bar throughout the evening! Be sure to follow us on Twitter (@WNST) for the latest updates and analysis regarding the happenings from Oriole Park at Camden Yards!

The official halfway point in the Major League Baseball season is all but upon us and by now we have a pretty healthy body of work to scrutinize. When it comes to scrutiny, no one has seemingly gotten more, from an Orioles perspective, than 3^rd baseman Mark Reynolds. While his defense has been an exercise in frustration and has to improve going forward, Reynolds’ offensive numbers have seemingly polarized the fan base. Those whose cup of Orange Kool-Aid is half empty are having a tough time getting past the strikeouts and batting average. The half full Orange Kool-Aid crowd looks at his walks, runs, doubles, homeruns and RBI while getting less at bats in the bottom of the lineup than many less productive O’s and try to quantify his production.

While the science of Sabermetrics has pervaded baseball in a big way, and attempted despite great resistance from the establishment to educate and enlighten baseball fans – and they have too- baseball is still scored based on the number of guys who cross home plate. WAR, OPS, PECOTA and BABIP do a great job in helping to identify trends and tendencies and to quantify what we’ve seen and can therefore expect going forward, but games are still scored in runs and identifying credible run producers in the era of modern stats can be a confusing endeavor to say the least.

At the end of the day, baseball is and always will be largely a function of luck and timing. Offensive prowess can certainly help to tip the scales in the favor of one team or another, but timely hitting still beats good hitting on most nights. Consider the old Strat-O-Matic baseball game; it assigned probablitites to dice rolls and reduced the game of baseball to a board game. It worked because like weighted rolls of the dice, over time the probabilities in baseball are bound to play out, but on any given game or roll or at bat, the improbable was and is possible.

Since stats are skewed based on numbers of at bats, plate appearances, RBI opportunities etc., comparing them without an Ivy League degree can be challenging. So in Strat-O-Matic baseball, or more comparably simple lottery calculations I offer the following.

Below is a chart listing the production of the regular members of the Orioles’ lineup based this seasons numbers per 100 plate appearances. As opposed to at bats, plate appearances take into account everything including walks, sac flies HBP’s etc. Think of each member of the Orioles lineup as a bucket of 100 lottery balls. Each time a player goes to the plate they pull one. For my money, it’s a lot like the luck and timing necessary to baseball success.

When Nick Markakis goes to the plate for example 67 of his 100 lottery balls are outs (10 of those strikeouts); he also has 21 singles, 2 doubles, 2 homeruns, 6 walks 1 sac fly and 1 HBP to pull from. Does that make him a better bet to produce runs than Mark Reynolds who has 64 outs in his bucket (26 of those K’s) and only 9 singles, but who also has 5 doubles, 4 homeruns, 16 walks 1 HBP and 1 sac fly to draw from? Some of the numbers were surprising to say the least.

Well, they did it. Just as plenty of Baltimore’s so-called faithful sports followers began writing off the birds, they have dug themselves out of another hole …..

In an ironic way, this has been the story of the 2011 Orioles, in a glimpse.

They’ve overcome losing streaks, injuries, bad luck and embarrassment in the span of just two short months …..

A week ago, tonight, this Orioles team suffered a humiliating 17-5 beating, courtesy of the Nationals. That loss came in succession to a sweep by the Yankees and a blown 6-run lead and loss, in Boston.

A substantial collection of Orioles fans believed the rebirth of “Buck-imore” baseball was headed in the same direction as every edition of the last 14 years. Ye of little faith !!!! The birds have rattled off 5 consecutive wins and stand at 24-24, as they make their first trip to the west coast.

Is there a message to my rant? Yep …. it’s a long season. Relax …..

Here’s today’s version of “50 words or less …..”
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A Bad Thing ???
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When Nolan Reimold hit his first homerun, yesterday, I wasn’t shocked. We have witnessed hundreds of situations where a recently recalled or promoted player coaxes a ball into the bleachers on adrenalin, alone.

But, when he hit #2 on the day, I instantly said to myself, “here we go”. The calls and pleas for slotting Reimold into the starting lineup, based on a few days production and one game’s dominance, are bound to surface.

Don’t kid yourselves …..

Players don’t fail and languish at Triple-A, only to finally find their way at the Major League level. It doesn’t happen. You can believe in the Nolan Reimold of the last 6 days. I will choose not to forget the same player of the past year …. for better or worse.

I hope my assessment is wrong. I want Nolan Reimold to succeed in an Orioles uniform. But, I have serious doubts …..
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Living Here In Allen-Town

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Well, I can proudly claim THE HANGOVER – PART 2 among the movies I’ve enjoyed in my life. I dragged my wife to last night’s premiere and we enjoyed every second of it.

Funny? Hell yeah. Better than the original? Nah …. but who cares?

While the storyline follows the same general premise, there are several innovatively hilarious moments. And, to quote Allen, “my Uncle Roger once saw an albino polar bear” …..

A word of caution or warning …. don’t take your kids. I saw several kids who haven’t reached their teens. Why would a parent do this? Leave ‘em home …..
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Where’s A Bull When You Need One ???
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When I awaken each morning, I commonly find my way to Twitter as a means of catching up on things that happened overnight. This morning, my scan of tweets uncovered the following from Chad Ochocinco, at about 6am:

“I parked in the red by inches and they tow Big Bertha, either they give me my car or Navy Seal Team 6 coming to get it for me.”

Nope, it’s not groundbreaking news. But, the mental picture of Chad swaggering out of a nightclub to find his sled towed just cracks me up. Like the title says, maybe he can ride one of those bulls he’s been wrangling …..
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A Stupid Rule
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As with rest of our culture, it seems like controversial incidents in sporting events serve as the impetus for rule changes. Thus, I’m not surprised to see such fallout following the injury to Buster Posey, on Wednesday night.

Many of us recall the ultimate injury when it comes to a catcher being barreled over in a homeplate collision. Ray Fosse vs. Pete Rose, right?

Should Major League Baseball work with the Players Association to develop new rules to protect a STATIONARY catcher, as a locomotive runner approaches in fullback mode? Yeah, I think its time …..
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One Simple Request
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The unofficial start to summer is just hours away. And, over the next few days, many of us will seize moments to celebrate Memorial Day weekend with friends and family.

When you have a free moment, please give pause to remember the family of Maryland State Trooper, Shaft Hunter, who will be laid to rest today at Dulaney Valley Memorial Gardens.

Trooper Hunter was killed in the line of duty, last Saturday. He is survived by his family, including six children.

HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY WEEKEND …. I WILL CHAT WITH YOU TODAY @ 2PM