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Derby winner Orb to arrive for Preakness May 14

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Derby winner Orb to arrive for Preakness May 14

Posted on 05 May 2013 by WNST Staff

BALTIMORE, 05-05-13—Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Orb is scheduled to arrive at Pimlico Race Course on Tuesday, May 14 to begin final preparations for the 138th running of the Preakness Stakes (G1) on Saturday, May 18.

Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey confirmed his plans to run the Malibu Moon colt in the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown during a Sunday morning phone call with Maryland Jockey Club president Tom Chuckas and two other Preakness officials. Pimlico officials traditionally call the winner of the Kentucky Derby to extend a formal invitation to come to Baltimore.

“I’m looking forward to getting this process going again and running in the Preakness,” McGaughey said.

McGaughey has had two Preakness starters: Pine Circle, fifth in 1984; Easy Goer, who finished second to Sunday Silence after an epic battle in 1989.

“We are tickled to death with the way he ran yesterday and he seemed to come out of the race well,” added McGaughey. “I am looking forward to getting there. We had a great two weeks down here and I am sure our time at Pimlico will be every bit as good. We are planning on bringing him Tuesday of Preakness week.”

Orb, bred and owned by Maryland native Stuart Janney III and Phipps Stable, won the Kentucky Derby by 2- 1/2 lengths after making a powerful move to the lead under jockey Joel Rosario. It was the first Derby victory for McGaughey, who has developed a number of champions during his distinguished career, including the unbeaten Personal Ensign.

Five runners that followed Orb to the wire in the Derby – Mylute (5th), Oxbow (6th), Will Take Charge (8th), Itsmyluckyday (15th) and Goldencents (17th) – are considered candidates to challenge Orb in the Preakness.

On the list of new shooters for the Preakness are Illinois Derby (G3) winner Departing, Sunland Derby (G3) winner Govenor Charlie, Southwest (G3) runner-up Fear the Kitten and allowance winner Bellarmine.

Orb, Oxbow, Will Take Charge, Goldencents and Departing are regarded as likely starters. Itsmyluckyday, Mylute, Govenor Charlie, Bellarmine and Fear the Kitten are possible starters for the 1 3/16ths mile race.

Goldencents, trained by 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Doug O’Neill, will be shipped to Pimlico this week. O’Neill broke with recent form last year and brought Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another to Baltimore two days after his Derby win. He said Sunday morning that he liked that experience and is anxious to send Goldencents and 10 other runners to Pimlico.

“He came out of it good and we’re going to do the right thing by the horse,” O’Neill said. “As long as he continues to do well, we’re going to try the Preakness.”

Team O’Neill could arrive in Baltimore as early as Tuesday, May 7.

O’Neill said that he has been impressed by Orb.

“I thought he ran great,” O’Neill said. “He’s a dynamite horse. He looked great on paper. He looked great in the flesh the whole week watching him train and he ran accordingly. He’s the real deal.”

That said, O’Neill is willing to tackle Orb again in two weeks.

“It’s what horse racing is all about,” he said. “They don’t hand you anything. As good as he is, if Goldencents rebounds and gets back to his Santa Anita Derby effort, I think we have a chance to be right there.”

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a five-time winner of the Preakness, will be represented by LeComte (G3) winner Oxbow and Rebel (G2) winner Will Take Charge and acknowledged Sunday that Orb presents a tough challenge.

“We are all going to have to get better to beat him,” Lukas said, who has had at least one starter in 25 of the past 33 years. “I think the Preakness will be the biggest hurdle for him for the Triple Crown. If he gets by that, he gets to go back home to Belmont and run right out of his stall.”

Mylute, co-owned by GoldMark Farm and Whisper Hill Farm, acted like a horse who still had plenty of energy and his connections started thinking about the Preakness.

“We need a couple more days to think about it,” GoldMark Farm general manager Todd Quast said after he and trainer Tom Amoss checked on the Louisiana Derby runner-up in his stall. “You wouldn’t not want to go from what you see today, that’s for sure. When he came out of the Louisiana Derby he was so high that we worked him back eight days later. If he comes back with that kind of energy we have to seriously look at it.”

Mylute’s jockey Rosie Napravnik is looking forward to her first opportunity to ride in Maryland’s premier race. Napravnik began her career at Pimlico in June 2005 as a 17-year-old and built her reputation in Maryland. She was a regular rider in the state through 2008 and topped the jockey standings in 2006 and 2008.

“There’s no other race I would rather be in and win,” Napravnik said.

Only two female riders have had a Preakness mount: PJ Cooksey (1985) and Andrea Seefeldt (1994).

Trainer Eddie Plesa, Jr. said Itsmyluckyday was “60-40” for the Preakness after a disappointing performance in the Derby.

“We have to blame it on the (sloppy) race track. It’s not just making an excuse. He trained too well to run so bad,” Plesa said. “You could see where he was struggling with the racetrack all the way around. It wasn’t a case of soundness; it was a question of handling the racetrack.”

Itsmyluckyday is scheduled to ship to Monmouth Park Monday morning.

Departing has won four of five career starts for trainer Al Stall and the War Front gelding was confirmed as a Preakness horse Sunday morning. Stall said that Claiborne Farm principal Seth Hancock told him in a text at 9 a.m. before going to church that he was leaning toward running.

“He called me after church and said, ‘Let’s go forward,’” Stall said.

Departing, bred and co-owned by Claiborne and Adele Dilschneider, was on the Kentucky Derby trail until he finished third in the Louisiana Derby on March 30. The 3-1/4-length victory in the Illinois Derby on April 20 got him back on track to compete in the Triple Crown races.

“We were kind of pointing toward the Preakness no matter who was going to be there, really,” Stall said. “I was unbelievably impressed with the way Orb trained and the way he ran. He’s going to be a monster horse to try to beat. We just have our horse on a good schedule. He’s fresh. I wanted to get a work into  him before the Derby, which he did Thursday. We’re very excited how that went and how he came out of it too. All that went into our decision. That’s what made us firm it up today.”

Sagamore Farm’s Heat Press, who finished second in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico on April 27, is considered “unlikely” by trainer Graham Motion.

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Orb Wins Derby, Eyeballs Preakness; GQ Nails Top 3 Finishers; Selection Sunday at Pimlico

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Orb Wins Derby, Eyeballs Preakness; GQ Nails Top 3 Finishers; Selection Sunday at Pimlico

Posted on 04 May 2013 by Gary Quill

From the moment the betting windows opened on Friday to take action on the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby, Revolutionary took the lion’s share of the WIN wagers, maintaining favoritism at 5-1 until about 30 minutes to Post Time. The West Coast – Rick Pitino hope, Goldencents backers bettor their favorite colt down to 5-1 as well, while FL Derby winner Orb and undefeated Verrazano, were getting very little respect at 7-1 and 11-1, respectively.

That is, until 30 minutes to Post Time when the late money came in on Orb, to make him the official Post Time 5-1 favorite, and he did not disappoint his backers. Orb was away awkwardly at the start, angled in and reserved energy early while four wide on the first turn, angled out after six furlongs, made a bold six wide move commencing near the three furlong marker, reeled in the leader in mid-stretch, drew clear then stayed clear under steady handling to win by 2½ lengths over Golden Soul (34-1), who was one length ahead of Revolutionary (6-1).


Orb chillin’ just days before becoming a Derby Champ

Even though the betting favorite won, the $2 Exacta and Trifecta payoffs were huge due to Golden Soul’s runner-up finish at 34-1. Factor in a 19 horse field and an Exacta Pool of over $23 million resulted in a $981.70 Exacta pay-off on a $2 bet. The $6,925.60 Trifecta pay-off on a $2 bet was quite the gift when the second betting choice completed the Trifecta.

So what you say, “yeah nice pay-offs but nobody could have picked that #4 (Golden Soul).” That’s where you’d be incorrect. Because yours truly DID pick Golden Soul to finish third, behind Revolutionary and Orb, as documented in my Derby Analysis & Selections blog.


Sorry if I’m nearly breaking my arm padding myself on the back, but if I don’t do it, who will?!


Drawing compliments of Mel

There’s actually some bad news that Orb won the Derby. Last week while in Lou’vull (aka Louisville), I had the opportunity to ask Orb’s trainer, Shug McGuaghey what his travel plans would be for Orb IF he were to win the Derby and move onto run in the Preakness on May 18th. “We’ll go back to New York, then probably ship down on Tuesday (of Preakness week)” McGaughey stated. That’s unfortunate after the folks at the Maryland Jockey Club last year enjoyed early hype of the Preakness when trainer Doug O’Neill brought the Derby winner (I’ll Have Another) to Old Hilltop the Monday after the Derby.

The JockeyWorld.org racing term of the day is #125…  “Gate Card

Recapping Pimlico Day 19 selections from Saturday 11-race card posted had 6 winners (2 Top Selections in BOLD type) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.40 (1st race), $9.00 (6th), $8.00 (7th), $12.20 (8th), $5.20 (10th) and $8.00 (11th).

The BEST BET (18 8-2-2) Ruttzy Tuttzy (#2 7-1 PT; 8-1 M/L) lacked speed , raced outside horses on the turn, swung to the five path turning for home and rallied to be a clear third to return $5.00 to SHOW.

The LONGSHOT PICK (18 4-1-2) Skeleton Crew (R3 #4 5-1 PT; 8-1 M/L) lacked speed, raced inside horses in upper stretch, swung very wide in mid-stretch and rallied to earn a minor share of the purse, finishing third to return $4.60 to SHOW.

Selections for the Day 20 Pimlico Sunday, May 5th card will be on Page 2.

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Orb Draws Post #16 as 7-2 Morning Line Favorite for Kentucky Derby 139; Thursday Picks at Pimlico

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Orb Draws Post #16 as 7-2 Morning Line Favorite for Kentucky Derby 139; Thursday Picks at Pimlico

Posted on 01 May 2013 by Gary Quill

Post Positions for the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby were drawn Wednesday evening at Churchill Downs. Native Kentuckian and veteran Derby Oddmaker Mike Battaglia set the Moring Line odds and made Florida Derby winner Orb the 7-2 favorite, who will break from post #16 over the undefeated Verrazano (Post #14) the 4-1 second choice among a full field of twenty 3-year-olds.


Drawing courtesy of Mel @dailyracefunies. To see more of Mel’s work, click here.

Among the many hats that I’ve worn, setting the Morning Line odds at any thoroughbred horse racing track in America is not yet one of them, but on my Bucket List. Over the years, many of my friends and blog readers have come to enjoy, look forward to or simply tolerate my yearning to see how close my odds for a particular race come to the actual Morning Line. Battaglia has been working his craft for nearly 40 years whereas I do it for big races and friends and some horse owners who are eager for an opinion on a probable Morning Line or predicted Post Time odds.

PP – HORSE———— JOCKEY / TRAINER—————- M/L— GQPPTO*
1.  Black Onyx            Joe Bravo / Kelly Breen                   50-1          46-1
2.  Oxbow                   Gary Stevens / D. Wayne Lukas      30-1          21-1
3. Revolutionary       Calvin Borel / Todd Pletcher              10-1            6-1
4. Golden Soul          B.Hernandez Jr / Dallas Stewart       50-1          51-1
5. Normandy Invasion  J.Castellano / Chad Brown            12-1           11-1
6. Mylute                  Rosie Napravnik / Tom Amoss           15-1           16-1
7. Giant Finish        Jose Espinoza / Anthony Dutrow          50-1          48-1
8. Goldencents        Kevin Krigger / Doug O’Neill                 5-1             8-1
9. Overanalyze        Rafael Bejarano / Todd Pletcher          15-1          23-1
10. Palace Malice    Mike Smith / Todd Pletcher                  20-1          18-1
11. Lines of Battle   Ryan Moore / Aidan O’Brien                 30-1         31-1
12. Itsmyluckyday  Elvis Trujillo / Eddie Plesa, Jr.               15-1          21-1
13. Falling Sky         Luis Saez / John Terranova                 50-1          53-1
14. Verrazano          John Velazquez / Todd Pletcher            4-1            5-1
15. Charming Kitten Edgar Prado / Todd Pletcher              20-1          44-1
16. Orb                      Joel Rosario / Shug McGaughey        7-2             4-1
17. Will Take Charge  Jon Court / D. Wayne Lukas             20-1          27-1
18. Frac Daddy         Victor Lebron / Ken McPeek               50-1          42-1
19. Java’s War           Julien Laparoux / Ken McPeek          15-1          15-1
20. Vyjack                  Garrett Gomez / Rudy Rodriguez      15-1           19-1
AE Fear the Kitten      Alan Garcia / Michael Maker             —              —

AE – Also Eligible IF any other runner scratches prior to Friday
* – GQ’s Predicted Post Time Odds

Recapping Pimlico’s Sunday 9-race card posted had 5 winners (2 Top Selections in BOLD type) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.40 (1st race), $2.60 (2nd), $11.80 (5th), $4.80 (6th) and $5.00 (8th).

The BEST BET of the Day (15 7-2-1) Classic Wildcat (R4 #5 5-2 PT; 6-1 M/L) started in good shape, but was pulled up nearing the lane then walked onto the van on his own courage.

The LONGSHOT PICK (15 4-1-1) Lil Escape Artist (R8 #5 5-1 PT; 10-1 M/L) ran the race I anticipated, but was only good enough to be second best. She allowed the speed duel to take place, but so did the winner, as both made their move entering the stretch, passing their tiring rivals, but the winner was much the best, but the runner-up returned $5.00 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, $20 on Elkhorn Creek / Sting Boy (R2 #2/2X 1-5 PT; 1-1 M/L) brought out the bridge-jumpers (bettors who wager thousands to SHOW thinking they can make a quick 5% ROI), after the second choice (#6 –Ram) was scratched. As predicted, these two proved to be the best in here as they finished 1-2 well headed of the third place runner, but nearly 90% of the SHOW pool was on the 2/2X entry, returning $2.60 to WIN, $2.10 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.

Selections for the Day 17 Pimlico Sunday, May 2nd card are on Page 2.

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Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2: Mar. 1st – 3rd

Posted on 27 February 2013 by Gary Quill

Derby logoKentucky Derby Future Wager – Pool 2 betting starts noon Friday through 6:00 p.m. EST Sunday, March 3rd

Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert have 11 of the 23 individual interests in Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

It took less than 3 weeks to determine six (6) from Pool 1 were not worthy to be included in Pool 2. They are Capo Bastone, Frac Daddy, Mylute, He’s Had Enough, Violence and Will Take Charge…  replaced by Ive Struck a Nerve, Orb, Palace Malice, Shakin It Up, Titletown Five and Treasury Bill.

Program# – horse – (trainer) —- last race ——— odds — [*GQ DDDR]

1.  Code West (Baffert) 2nd G2 Risen Star by nose  20-1  [N/R]

2.  Delhomme (Pletcher) 3rd G2 Remsen by ¾ length  50-1 [N/R]

3.  Den’s Legacy (Baffert) 2nd G2 Bob Lewis by 6¼   50-1 [N/R]

4.  Dynamic Sky (Casse) 2nd G3 Sam Davis by neck  50-1 [9]

5.  Falling Sky (Terranova) 1st G3 Sam Davis by neck  50-1 [N/R]

6.  Flashback (Baffert) 1st G2 Bob Lewis by 6¼  12-1 [8]

7.  Goldencents (O’Neill) 1st G3 Sham by 1½  20-1 [N/R]

8.  Itsmyluckyday (Plesa) 1st G3 Holy Bull by 2  12-1 [14]

9.  Ive Struck a Nerve (Desormeaux) 1st G2 Risen Star by nose 30-1 [N/R]

10.  Normandy Invasion (Brown) 5th G2 Risen Star by 1½  15-1 [10]

11. Orb (McGaughey) 1st G2 Fountain of Youth by ½  12-1 [N/R]

12. Overanalyze (Pletcher) 1st G2 Remsen by nose  20-1 [N/R]

13.  Oxbow (Lukas) 4th G2 Risen Star by ½  30-1 [N/R]

14.  Palace Malice (Pletcher) 3rd G2 Risen Star by ½  30-1 [N/R]

15.  Revolutionary (Pletcher) 1st G3 Withers by neck 12-1 [2]

16.  Shakin It Up (Baffert) 1st G2 San Vicente by length 15-1 [3]

17.  Shanghai Bobby (Pletcher) 2nd G3 Holy Bull by 2  15-1 [N/R]

18.  Super Ninety Nine (Baffert) 1st G3 Southwest by 11¼  10-1 [N/R]

19.  Titletown Five (Lukas) 1st Oct. 28 CD maiden by 9  30-1 [N/R]

20.  Treasury Bill (Ellis) 2nd G2 San Vicente by length  30-1 [4]

21.  Uncaptured (Casse) 1st G2 Ky Jockey Club by neck  30-1 [N/R]

22.  Verrazano (Pletcher) 1st GP allowance by 16¼  10-1 [N/R]

23.  Vyjack (Rodriguez) 1st G2 Jerome by head  30-1 [N/R]

24.  All other 3-year-olds  3-1

BOLD Type = new wagering interest in Pool 2

*GQ DDDR = GQ’s Derby Double Dozen Ranking from Feb. 9th blog

 

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