I think predicting the record of team is trivial, especially at this point: 3 weeks before training camp has started.  You can’t possibly have any intelligent insight into the teams record.  That being said, you can have a feel for certain things with the team.

I, myself, believe that this will be somewhat of a down year for the purple and black birds of Baltimore.  Down year meaning not as amazing they have been the previous 4 years.  Teams, especially in the NFL, aren’t this good for this long.  The league is balanced enough so that teams cannot make the playoffs 5 years in a row like the Ravens will be trying to do this season.  I think that the players were crushed by the defeat in the AFC championship last year and I just don’t see them getting back to that point.

Knowing Ravens fans though, it’ll be the end of the world.  But the pain of losing makes you appreciate winning that much more.

Anyway, here are my 5 pre-training camp predictions for the Ravens:

1. Ray Rice will play under the franchise tag in 2012 – The question that has been foremost on Ravens fans minds has been ,“When will Ray Rice sign?”  I just don’t believe he will at this point.  It seems the sides are too far apart.  Ray Rice wants Adrian Peterson money and the Ravens want to probably give him Arian Foster type money (which I think he is worth).  With the deadline to sign a player who has been tagged just under 24 hours away, I just don’t see the two sides magically coming to an agreement by then.

2. Terrell Suggs will not return from his injury this season – Terrell Suggs’s injury was serious.  Its time everyone realize this.  The kind of injury he suffered takes months to recover and is usually season ending.  I hate to question his drive and motivation, but I just get the feeling that he won’t be the type of guy who works his butt off to get back as quick as he can.  I hope he proves me wrong.

3. Joe Flacco will not turn the proverbial corner – I just don’t see Flacco taking that next step to being an elite quarterback.  Not as long as Cam Cameron is the offensive coordinator.  In Cam’s offense, the QB is just not the focal point.  If you look at his time in San Diego, Cam couldn’t even make Drew Brees look like the great QB that we all know he is. I think Joe will have the same level of production he has always had.

4. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will retire following the 2012 season – I thought they would retire at the end of last year; and I think they would’ve had the Ravens made it to the Super Bowl.  You could see that at the end of the season last year, these two guys were giving everything they had to help the Ravens win.  I don’t think they have that kind of fight in them for anymore than one more season.  This is it for the Ravens icons.

5. The Ravens will not make the playoffs this year – With the emergence of the Bengals as contenders and the Steelers being perennial contenders, I don’t see the Ravens fitting into the playoff landscape.  Like I said earlier, it’s so difficult for teams to make the playoffs this many years in a row.

I sure hope most of these predictions are wrong but I am just being realistic.  Or maybe I am just keeping my expectations low so I won’t be disappointed.  At any length, these are my “expert” opinions.

I would venture to say that no one predicted the Orioles to do as well as they have to this point in the season, except for maybe some of the “homers” out there.  It’s been a year of surprises and disappointments (those links courtesy our own Luke Jones) so far and right now the O’s are in somewhat of a purgatory or limbo.  As I said in one my earlier pieces, the next two weeks or so will be a turning point for the team and will show whether they are ready to contend for a playoff spot or gear up for the future.

Here are my five predictions for the second half of the year:

1. The Orioles will not end up “buying” any great players – Even though Dan Duquette has declared the Orioles “buyers” at the trade deadline, I don’t buy this for a second.  Up until this point, Duquette has given every indication that he believes the right way to build a team is through the farm system.  He really didn’t take a huge risk on Jim Thome (which appears like a failure so far) and I don’t think he will be willing to give up what is needed to get someone like Zach Grienke, Matt Garza, or Wandy Rodriguez which would be some middle to high level prospects.

2. The Orioles will trade Wilson Betemit or Mark Reynolds – There are a few teams that are in need of a quality third baseman and there aren’t many of those around.  The Orioles have two.  To call them “quality” might be a stretch but they can certainly fill a void for a team in need.  Nick Markakis’s (returning to the lineup Friday) and Endy Chavez’s (now on a rehab tour) returns will add depth to the outfield allowing Chris Davis to return to the first base position which will make a trade of either of the two third basemen even more logical.

3. Brian Matusz, Jake Arietta, and Tommy Hunter will not return to the MLB level – They may come back next year but if you look at Chris Tillman and the good that working with Rick Peterson in the minors did, I think the Orioles will be wise and keep them down to figure things out.  The process of identifying their problems and fixing them is a somewhat lengthy process also.  It requires in depth recording and analysis of the pitching delivery and then practice of the corrections made to it.

4. J.J. Hardy will continue to slump – I never thought that J.J. would be as good as he was last year.  This year he is clearly fatigued and maybe injured, batting only .224/.262/.380. That’s bad any way you look at it.  I have heard some things about him dealing with shoulder pain and if you have ever played baseball, you know how hard it is to swing if your shoulder isn’t 100%.

And finally…

5. The Orioles will not finish above .500 – As much as I would like them to, I just don’t see it happening.  The way the Orioles were having success (good pitching and hitting home runs) is not a sustainable winning formula, first of all, and it has completely unraveled in the past 20 games.  Remember, this isn’t just a few game slump we are looking at.  We are witnessing a bad baseball team at the moment and one that I think has reached its ceiling.

I know these predictions are a little pessimistic but I’m just trying to be realistic and look at the facts with this team.  They aren’t playing well, no matter how you slice it.  You can only go on history and if you do that, there is every indication the team will start trading away players at the first sign of trouble, thus making the team worse.

Extra credit prediction: Adam Jones will continue being a big mouth (and I’m putting that nicely).  I’m really not sure why so many people like the guy.  Since his new contract (all $85 million of it) he has been below average at best. He constantly mouths off at fans on Twitter and says how he and the team need to do better yet doesn’t make good on his statements.  Adam needs to start putting his money (no pun intended) where his mouth is and play some good baseball.

Follow me on Twitter @RealJohnSears