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Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2: Mar. 1st – 3rd

Posted on 27 February 2013 by Gary Quill

Derby logoKentucky Derby Future Wager – Pool 2 betting starts noon Friday through 6:00 p.m. EST Sunday, March 3rd

Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert have 11 of the 23 individual interests in Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

It took less than 3 weeks to determine six (6) from Pool 1 were not worthy to be included in Pool 2. They are Capo Bastone, Frac Daddy, Mylute, He’s Had Enough, Violence and Will Take Charge…  replaced by Ive Struck a Nerve, Orb, Palace Malice, Shakin It Up, Titletown Five and Treasury Bill.

Program# – horse – (trainer) —- last race ——— odds — [*GQ DDDR]

1.  Code West (Baffert) 2nd G2 Risen Star by nose  20-1  [N/R]

2.  Delhomme (Pletcher) 3rd G2 Remsen by ¾ length  50-1 [N/R]

3.  Den’s Legacy (Baffert) 2nd G2 Bob Lewis by 6¼   50-1 [N/R]

4.  Dynamic Sky (Casse) 2nd G3 Sam Davis by neck  50-1 [9]

5.  Falling Sky (Terranova) 1st G3 Sam Davis by neck  50-1 [N/R]

6.  Flashback (Baffert) 1st G2 Bob Lewis by 6¼  12-1 [8]

7.  Goldencents (O’Neill) 1st G3 Sham by 1½  20-1 [N/R]

8.  Itsmyluckyday (Plesa) 1st G3 Holy Bull by 2  12-1 [14]

9.  Ive Struck a Nerve (Desormeaux) 1st G2 Risen Star by nose 30-1 [N/R]

10.  Normandy Invasion (Brown) 5th G2 Risen Star by 1½  15-1 [10]

11. Orb (McGaughey) 1st G2 Fountain of Youth by ½  12-1 [N/R]

12. Overanalyze (Pletcher) 1st G2 Remsen by nose  20-1 [N/R]

13.  Oxbow (Lukas) 4th G2 Risen Star by ½  30-1 [N/R]

14.  Palace Malice (Pletcher) 3rd G2 Risen Star by ½  30-1 [N/R]

15.  Revolutionary (Pletcher) 1st G3 Withers by neck 12-1 [2]

16.  Shakin It Up (Baffert) 1st G2 San Vicente by length 15-1 [3]

17.  Shanghai Bobby (Pletcher) 2nd G3 Holy Bull by 2  15-1 [N/R]

18.  Super Ninety Nine (Baffert) 1st G3 Southwest by 11¼  10-1 [N/R]

19.  Titletown Five (Lukas) 1st Oct. 28 CD maiden by 9  30-1 [N/R]

20.  Treasury Bill (Ellis) 2nd G2 San Vicente by length  30-1 [4]

21.  Uncaptured (Casse) 1st G2 Ky Jockey Club by neck  30-1 [N/R]

22.  Verrazano (Pletcher) 1st GP allowance by 16¼  10-1 [N/R]

23.  Vyjack (Rodriguez) 1st G2 Jerome by head  30-1 [N/R]

24.  All other 3-year-olds  3-1

BOLD Type = new wagering interest in Pool 2

*GQ DDDR = GQ’s Derby Double Dozen Ranking from Feb. 9th blog

 

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Selections for Saturday at Laurel Park; Derby Trail Stops at Gulfstream Park (FL) for Holy Bull Stakes

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Selections for Saturday at Laurel Park; Derby Trail Stops at Gulfstream Park (FL) for Holy Bull Stakes

Posted on 25 January 2013 by Gary Quill

On Saturday (Jan. 26th), ten potential Triple Crown nominees will run in the $400k Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. Run at a distance of 1 1/16th miles, scheduled Post Time for this Derby point system event is 5:05pm (EST). The 4-5 Morning Line (M/L) favorite is #1 – Shanghai Bobby (Todd Pletcher trained; ridden by Rosie Napravnik). He’s a perfect 5-for-5 lifetime, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile which helped him earn the 2012 Eclipse award for 2-year-old champion.

This contest will be not cake walk for “Bobby” as the field includes a trio of graded stakes placed runners… #2 – Frac Daddy (8-1), second to Uncaptured in the G2 KY Jockey Club while #6- Dewey Square (12-1) was third; #4 – Bern Identity (4-1) second to Goldencents in the G3 Delta Jackpot. The Holy Bull Stakes marks the 3-year-old debut for these 3, “Bobby” and 3 others… #3 – Clearly Now (12-1) in from Woodbine for first natural dirt outing, #8 – Tulira Castle (30-1) and #9 – Fredericksburg (30-1) ran 1-2 in lone dirt efforts in a $75k N1X.The latter adds blinkers.

HOW I SEE IT: There is a ton of early speed in here. Bern Identity is the best of the few who can rate and come off the pace as he closed ground in the Delta Jackpot on a track that favored speed. Shanghai Bobby is definitely the most accomplished, but I doubt he’s cranked up for his 3-year-old debut. The ultimate goal is the Kentucky Derby, so he’ll probably get a bit weary in the final 16th of a mile, to salvage a minor share. Those who stand to continue to improve are Dewey Square and Itsmyluckyday.

THE PLAY: $10 WPS #4 and $2 Exacta Box 1-4-6

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Recapping the previously posted selections at Laurel Park from Saturday, Jan. 19th had 6 winners from 9 races (but just 1 Top Selection; pay-offs shown in BOLD type) in part to a very “chalky” day, having $2 WIN pay-offs of $7.20 (1st), $2.60 (2nd), $3.20 (3rd), $3.80 (4th), $4.60 (7th) and $28.00 (9th).

The BEST BET of the Day (4 0-0-0) Classic Wildcat (9-2 PT; 9-2 M/L) simply put, “failed to menace”, finishing 7th of 8 runners. Enough said.

The LONGSHOT PICK (4 0-0-0) In God’s Country (7-1 PT; 8-1 M/L) after a slow start, raced 5 wide, could only muster a mild rally to finish 4th less than 3 lengths behind the winner.

For Saturday races the weather forecast calls for Sunny skies with no chance of precipitation, meaning the track will be FAST at Laurel Park on Saturday Jan. 26th. Selections for all races posted were handicapped based on making multi-race wagers such as DOUBLE’s, Pick-3’s and Pick-4’s using all three (3) listed for each race in each leg.

1st race – $16,000 Maiden Claiming for 4 y.o. & up – 1 mile
#4 – Backdoor Strike (9-2)
#1 – Roccamo (4-5)
#6 – Top Partner (4-1)

2nd race – $15,000 Claiming for 4 y.o. & up – 5½ furlongs
#3 – Fearsome (2-1)
#7 – Glib (5-2)
#4 – Rio Samba (12-1)

3rd race – $16,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. fillies – 5½ furlongs
#8 – Avie (5-2)
#9 – Star Holiday (6-1)
#7 – Jersey Zapper (2-1)

4th race – $25,000 Maiden Claiming for fillies 3 y.o. – 6 furlongs
#1 – Awesome and Classy (6-1)
#3 – Tetherball (2-1)
#6 – Perfect Balance (5-2)

5th race – $5,000 Claiming N2X for 4 y.o. & up – 1 mile
#8 – Mister Dish (8-1) $$$ LONGSHOT $$$
#6 – Summer of Summers (8-1)
#7 – Granted Ruler (9-2)

6th race – $38,000 Maidens for 3 y.o. fillies – about 1 1/16 miles
#2 – Red Hot Tweet (5-2)
#3 – Dontstopmenow (7-2)
#5 – Everything Matters (7-2)

7th race – $5,000 Claiming for 4 y.o. & up – 1 mile
#12 – Gambine Road (5-1)
#10 – Dinos Romance (8-5)
#5 – Silver Endurance (10-1)

8th race – $125,000 Nellie Morse Stakes for F&M 4 y.o. & up – about 1 1/16 miles
#10 – Ciguaraya (5-1) *** BEST BET ***
#8 – Tanivan (12-1)
#1 – Moon Philly (9-5)

9th race – $8,000 Maiden Claiming for 4 y.o. & up – 5 furlongs
#7 – Punta Sal (9-2)
#3 (POE) – Silver Prado (6-1)
#8 – Cinder Cone (5-1)

GOOD LUCK!

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