Post Positions for the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby were drawn Wednesday evening at Churchill Downs. Native Kentuckian and veteran Derby Oddmaker Mike Battaglia set the Moring Line odds and made Florida Derby winner Orb the 7-2 favorite, who will break from post #16 over the undefeated Verrazano (Post #14) the 4-1 second choice among a full field of twenty 3-year-olds.
Among the many hats that I’ve worn, setting the Morning Line odds at any thoroughbred horse racing track in America is not yet one of them, but on my Bucket List. Over the years, many of my friends and blog readers have come to enjoy, look forward to or simply tolerate my yearning to see how close my odds for a particular race come to the actual Morning Line. Battaglia has been working his craft for nearly 40 years whereas I do it for big races and friends and some horse owners who are eager for an opinion on a probable Morning Line or predicted Post Time odds.
PP – HORSE———— JOCKEY / TRAINER—————- M/L— GQPPTO*
1. Black Onyx Joe Bravo / Kelly Breen 50-1 46-1
2. Oxbow Gary Stevens / D. Wayne Lukas 30-1 21-1
3. Revolutionary Calvin Borel / Todd Pletcher 10-1 6-1
4. Golden Soul B.Hernandez Jr / Dallas Stewart 50-1 51-1
5. Normandy Invasion J.Castellano / Chad Brown 12-1 11-1
6. Mylute Rosie Napravnik / Tom Amoss 15-1 16-1
7. Giant Finish Jose Espinoza / Anthony Dutrow 50-1 48-1
8. Goldencents Kevin Krigger / Doug O’Neill 5-1 8-1
9. Overanalyze Rafael Bejarano / Todd Pletcher 15-1 23-1
10. Palace Malice Mike Smith / Todd Pletcher 20-1 18-1
11. Lines of Battle Ryan Moore / Aidan O’Brien 30-1 31-1
12. Itsmyluckyday Elvis Trujillo / Eddie Plesa, Jr. 15-1 21-1
13. Falling Sky Luis Saez / John Terranova 50-1 53-1
14. Verrazano John Velazquez / Todd Pletcher 4-1 5-1
15. Charming Kitten Edgar Prado / Todd Pletcher 20-1 44-1
16. Orb Joel Rosario / Shug McGaughey 7-2 4-1
17. Will Take Charge Jon Court / D. Wayne Lukas 20-1 27-1
18. Frac Daddy Victor Lebron / Ken McPeek 50-1 42-1
19. Java’s War Julien Laparoux / Ken McPeek 15-1 15-1
20. Vyjack Garrett Gomez / Rudy Rodriguez 15-1 19-1
AE Fear the Kitten Alan Garcia / Michael Maker — —
AE – Also Eligible IF any other runner scratches prior to Friday
* – GQ’s Predicted Post Time Odds
Recapping Pimlico’s Sunday 9-race card posted had 5 winners (2 Top Selections in BOLD type) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.40 (1st race), $2.60 (2nd), $11.80 (5th), $4.80 (6th) and $5.00 (8th).
The BEST BET of the Day (15 7-2-1) Classic Wildcat (R4 #5 5-2 PT; 6-1 M/L) started in good shape, but was pulled up nearing the lane then walked onto the van on his own courage.
The LONGSHOT PICK (15 4-1-1) Lil Escape Artist (R8 #5 5-1 PT; 10-1 M/L) ran the race I anticipated, but was only good enough to be second best. She allowed the speed duel to take place, but so did the winner, as both made their move entering the stretch, passing their tiring rivals, but the winner was much the best, but the runner-up returned $5.00 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW.
SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, $20 on Elkhorn Creek / Sting Boy (R2 #2/2X 1-5 PT; 1-1 M/L) brought out the bridge-jumpers (bettors who wager thousands to SHOW thinking they can make a quick 5% ROI), after the second choice (#6 –Ram) was scratched. As predicted, these two proved to be the best in here as they finished 1-2 well headed of the third place runner, but nearly 90% of the SHOW pool was on the 2/2X entry, returning $2.60 to WIN, $2.10 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
Selections for the Day 17 Pimlico Sunday, May 2nd card are on Page 2.