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Orb Draws Post #16 as 7-2 Morning Line Favorite for Kentucky Derby 139; Thursday Picks at Pimlico

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Orb Draws Post #16 as 7-2 Morning Line Favorite for Kentucky Derby 139; Thursday Picks at Pimlico

Posted on 01 May 2013 by Gary Quill

Post Positions for the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby were drawn Wednesday evening at Churchill Downs. Native Kentuckian and veteran Derby Oddmaker Mike Battaglia set the Moring Line odds and made Florida Derby winner Orb the 7-2 favorite, who will break from post #16 over the undefeated Verrazano (Post #14) the 4-1 second choice among a full field of twenty 3-year-olds.


Drawing courtesy of Mel @dailyracefunies. To see more of Mel’s work, click here.

Among the many hats that I’ve worn, setting the Morning Line odds at any thoroughbred horse racing track in America is not yet one of them, but on my Bucket List. Over the years, many of my friends and blog readers have come to enjoy, look forward to or simply tolerate my yearning to see how close my odds for a particular race come to the actual Morning Line. Battaglia has been working his craft for nearly 40 years whereas I do it for big races and friends and some horse owners who are eager for an opinion on a probable Morning Line or predicted Post Time odds.

PP – HORSE———— JOCKEY / TRAINER—————- M/L— GQPPTO*
1.  Black Onyx            Joe Bravo / Kelly Breen                   50-1          46-1
2.  Oxbow                   Gary Stevens / D. Wayne Lukas      30-1          21-1
3. Revolutionary       Calvin Borel / Todd Pletcher              10-1            6-1
4. Golden Soul          B.Hernandez Jr / Dallas Stewart       50-1          51-1
5. Normandy Invasion  J.Castellano / Chad Brown            12-1           11-1
6. Mylute                  Rosie Napravnik / Tom Amoss           15-1           16-1
7. Giant Finish        Jose Espinoza / Anthony Dutrow          50-1          48-1
8. Goldencents        Kevin Krigger / Doug O’Neill                 5-1             8-1
9. Overanalyze        Rafael Bejarano / Todd Pletcher          15-1          23-1
10. Palace Malice    Mike Smith / Todd Pletcher                  20-1          18-1
11. Lines of Battle   Ryan Moore / Aidan O’Brien                 30-1         31-1
12. Itsmyluckyday  Elvis Trujillo / Eddie Plesa, Jr.               15-1          21-1
13. Falling Sky         Luis Saez / John Terranova                 50-1          53-1
14. Verrazano          John Velazquez / Todd Pletcher            4-1            5-1
15. Charming Kitten Edgar Prado / Todd Pletcher              20-1          44-1
16. Orb                      Joel Rosario / Shug McGaughey        7-2             4-1
17. Will Take Charge  Jon Court / D. Wayne Lukas             20-1          27-1
18. Frac Daddy         Victor Lebron / Ken McPeek               50-1          42-1
19. Java’s War           Julien Laparoux / Ken McPeek          15-1          15-1
20. Vyjack                  Garrett Gomez / Rudy Rodriguez      15-1           19-1
AE Fear the Kitten      Alan Garcia / Michael Maker             —              —

AE – Also Eligible IF any other runner scratches prior to Friday
* – GQ’s Predicted Post Time Odds

Recapping Pimlico’s Sunday 9-race card posted had 5 winners (2 Top Selections in BOLD type) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.40 (1st race), $2.60 (2nd), $11.80 (5th), $4.80 (6th) and $5.00 (8th).

The BEST BET of the Day (15 7-2-1) Classic Wildcat (R4 #5 5-2 PT; 6-1 M/L) started in good shape, but was pulled up nearing the lane then walked onto the van on his own courage.

The LONGSHOT PICK (15 4-1-1) Lil Escape Artist (R8 #5 5-1 PT; 10-1 M/L) ran the race I anticipated, but was only good enough to be second best. She allowed the speed duel to take place, but so did the winner, as both made their move entering the stretch, passing their tiring rivals, but the winner was much the best, but the runner-up returned $5.00 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, $20 on Elkhorn Creek / Sting Boy (R2 #2/2X 1-5 PT; 1-1 M/L) brought out the bridge-jumpers (bettors who wager thousands to SHOW thinking they can make a quick 5% ROI), after the second choice (#6 –Ram) was scratched. As predicted, these two proved to be the best in here as they finished 1-2 well headed of the third place runner, but nearly 90% of the SHOW pool was on the 2/2X entry, returning $2.60 to WIN, $2.10 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.

Selections for the Day 17 Pimlico Sunday, May 2nd card are on Page 2.

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Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2: Mar. 1st – 3rd

Posted on 27 February 2013 by Gary Quill

Derby logoKentucky Derby Future Wager – Pool 2 betting starts noon Friday through 6:00 p.m. EST Sunday, March 3rd

Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert have 11 of the 23 individual interests in Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

It took less than 3 weeks to determine six (6) from Pool 1 were not worthy to be included in Pool 2. They are Capo Bastone, Frac Daddy, Mylute, He’s Had Enough, Violence and Will Take Charge…  replaced by Ive Struck a Nerve, Orb, Palace Malice, Shakin It Up, Titletown Five and Treasury Bill.

Program# – horse – (trainer) —- last race ——— odds — [*GQ DDDR]

1.  Code West (Baffert) 2nd G2 Risen Star by nose  20-1  [N/R]

2.  Delhomme (Pletcher) 3rd G2 Remsen by ¾ length  50-1 [N/R]

3.  Den’s Legacy (Baffert) 2nd G2 Bob Lewis by 6¼   50-1 [N/R]

4.  Dynamic Sky (Casse) 2nd G3 Sam Davis by neck  50-1 [9]

5.  Falling Sky (Terranova) 1st G3 Sam Davis by neck  50-1 [N/R]

6.  Flashback (Baffert) 1st G2 Bob Lewis by 6¼  12-1 [8]

7.  Goldencents (O’Neill) 1st G3 Sham by 1½  20-1 [N/R]

8.  Itsmyluckyday (Plesa) 1st G3 Holy Bull by 2  12-1 [14]

9.  Ive Struck a Nerve (Desormeaux) 1st G2 Risen Star by nose 30-1 [N/R]

10.  Normandy Invasion (Brown) 5th G2 Risen Star by 1½  15-1 [10]

11. Orb (McGaughey) 1st G2 Fountain of Youth by ½  12-1 [N/R]

12. Overanalyze (Pletcher) 1st G2 Remsen by nose  20-1 [N/R]

13.  Oxbow (Lukas) 4th G2 Risen Star by ½  30-1 [N/R]

14.  Palace Malice (Pletcher) 3rd G2 Risen Star by ½  30-1 [N/R]

15.  Revolutionary (Pletcher) 1st G3 Withers by neck 12-1 [2]

16.  Shakin It Up (Baffert) 1st G2 San Vicente by length 15-1 [3]

17.  Shanghai Bobby (Pletcher) 2nd G3 Holy Bull by 2  15-1 [N/R]

18.  Super Ninety Nine (Baffert) 1st G3 Southwest by 11¼  10-1 [N/R]

19.  Titletown Five (Lukas) 1st Oct. 28 CD maiden by 9  30-1 [N/R]

20.  Treasury Bill (Ellis) 2nd G2 San Vicente by length  30-1 [4]

21.  Uncaptured (Casse) 1st G2 Ky Jockey Club by neck  30-1 [N/R]

22.  Verrazano (Pletcher) 1st GP allowance by 16¼  10-1 [N/R]

23.  Vyjack (Rodriguez) 1st G2 Jerome by head  30-1 [N/R]

24.  All other 3-year-olds  3-1

BOLD Type = new wagering interest in Pool 2

*GQ DDDR = GQ’s Derby Double Dozen Ranking from Feb. 9th blog

 

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