I would venture to say that no one predicted the Orioles to do as well as they have to this point in the season, except for maybe some of the “homers” out there.  It’s been a year of surprises and disappointments (those links courtesy our own Luke Jones) so far and right now the O’s are in somewhat of a purgatory or limbo.  As I said in one my earlier pieces, the next two weeks or so will be a turning point for the team and will show whether they are ready to contend for a playoff spot or gear up for the future.

Here are my five predictions for the second half of the year:

1. The Orioles will not end up “buying” any great players – Even though Dan Duquette has declared the Orioles “buyers” at the trade deadline, I don’t buy this for a second.  Up until this point, Duquette has given every indication that he believes the right way to build a team is through the farm system.  He really didn’t take a huge risk on Jim Thome (which appears like a failure so far) and I don’t think he will be willing to give up what is needed to get someone like Zach Grienke, Matt Garza, or Wandy Rodriguez which would be some middle to high level prospects.

2. The Orioles will trade Wilson Betemit or Mark Reynolds – There are a few teams that are in need of a quality third baseman and there aren’t many of those around.  The Orioles have two.  To call them “quality” might be a stretch but they can certainly fill a void for a team in need.  Nick Markakis’s (returning to the lineup Friday) and Endy Chavez’s (now on a rehab tour) returns will add depth to the outfield allowing Chris Davis to return to the first base position which will make a trade of either of the two third basemen even more logical.

3. Brian Matusz, Jake Arietta, and Tommy Hunter will not return to the MLB level – They may come back next year but if you look at Chris Tillman and the good that working with Rick Peterson in the minors did, I think the Orioles will be wise and keep them down to figure things out.  The process of identifying their problems and fixing them is a somewhat lengthy process also.  It requires in depth recording and analysis of the pitching delivery and then practice of the corrections made to it.

4. J.J. Hardy will continue to slump – I never thought that J.J. would be as good as he was last year.  This year he is clearly fatigued and maybe injured, batting only .224/.262/.380. That’s bad any way you look at it.  I have heard some things about him dealing with shoulder pain and if you have ever played baseball, you know how hard it is to swing if your shoulder isn’t 100%.

And finally…

5. The Orioles will not finish above .500 – As much as I would like them to, I just don’t see it happening.  The way the Orioles were having success (good pitching and hitting home runs) is not a sustainable winning formula, first of all, and it has completely unraveled in the past 20 games.  Remember, this isn’t just a few game slump we are looking at.  We are witnessing a bad baseball team at the moment and one that I think has reached its ceiling.

I know these predictions are a little pessimistic but I’m just trying to be realistic and look at the facts with this team.  They aren’t playing well, no matter how you slice it.  You can only go on history and if you do that, there is every indication the team will start trading away players at the first sign of trouble, thus making the team worse.

Extra credit prediction: Adam Jones will continue being a big mouth (and I’m putting that nicely).  I’m really not sure why so many people like the guy.  Since his new contract (all $85 million of it) he has been below average at best. He constantly mouths off at fans on Twitter and says how he and the team need to do better yet doesn’t make good on his statements.  Adam needs to start putting his money (no pun intended) where his mouth is and play some good baseball.

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It’s been an up and down first half of the season for the Baltimore Orioles.  After a fast start, recently the team has been looking somewhat like the Orioles of past years.  In the last 20 games or so, quality pitching and timely hitting have been at a minimum.  The formula the Orioles used during their hot start has started to unravel after injuries and just simply poor play has plagued them.  Injuries to Nick Markakis, Endy Chavez, and Nolan Reimold have decimated the outfield, leaving Adam Jones the lone staple.

The Orioles are right on the line between irrelevance and contention.  There are problems that need to fixed and there are ways to do it.  At this point it’s a matter of trying.  Both with the players and the front office.

Since his new contract extension back on May 26th, Adam has completely dropped off in production.  Batting a mere .260 in June and July, it seems as though Adam has almost phoned it in at this point.  He doesn’t hustle down the line or after foul balls near as much and just isn’t having many quality at bats.  Adam needs to put his money where his twitter feed is and start hitting the ball and not just talk about it.

The trade for Jim Thome hasn’t worked out very well either.  He is batting a measly .238 since joining the team with zero homeruns; the main reason we traded for him.

The stellar starting pitching during the first part of the year has all but disappeared at this point, with three of the original five starters not even at the major league level anymore (Matusz, Arrieta, Hunter).  Clearly if the Orioles want to stay in contention they need to trade for an elite arm like Zach Grienke or trade for a couple of quality arms like Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster.  I personally would trade anyone except Bundy and Machado (especially after their Futures Game performances) for Grienke.  He is a great pitcher who I think the Orioles could easily sign to a longer deal.  He has said he likes the small market teams better because he isn’t much of a media guy.

Anyone who has stepped up to play third base has been simply downright awful defensively.  Buck Showalter has resorted to putting Robert Andino there but what you make up defensively with him, you give up on the offensive end.  There aren’t many, if any solutions out there for this problem at this point.  Padres Chase Headley has been a rumor but they clearly want too much in return for him.  This is probably just going to be a hole the O’s will have to deal with for the rest of the season.

Brian Roberts’s return was a great story, but that’s about all it really was.  His average is down to .182 and is still without an extra base hit.  Yes, that’s right, he doesn’t even have ONE.  This is clearly not the production that you need out of your lead-off hitter.

Nick Markakis should be returning to the lineup after the All Star Break which should bring some much needed stability to the lineup.  For what it’s worth, he hit two, two run homeruns during his Friday rehab start with AA Bowie.  If anything, it’s encouraging to say the least.  His return would allow Davis to move to left field which is more suited for his abilities in Camden Yards.

With all this said, the team is still five games above .500 at 45-40 and a manageable 6.5 games behind the Yankees for first place in the A.L. East.  While there are clear problems on this team, they can be fixed by simply caring about how well the team does.  If the front office wants to make something out of this year, then they will go for it and trade for some legitimate pieces. If not, the team will simply fall into irrelevance