Luke's Bio
Born in Baltimore but now living right across the line in southern Pa., Luke Jones' mind is filled with sports trivia and random movie quotes. His favorite sports memories include attending the Ravens' Super Bowl XXXV victory parade in the pouring rain and watching Juan Dixon and the Terps advance to the Final Four at the Carrier Dome in 2002 (making snow-heavy Syracuse bearable for one day). His least favorite memory is a variety of trips to Camden Yards to see Red Sox or Yankees fans take over the ballpark. After winning WNST's King of Baltimore Sportstalk competition last year, he now writes for WNST.net, covering the Orioles, University of Maryland basketball and football, and Ravens training camp. You can always drop him a line to talk Baltimore sports or simply say hello at luke@wnst.net.
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In the months leading to the NFL Draft, talk has persisted over the Ravens’ need to select a receiver in the first round. But now with the draft only a week away, could Pro Bowl wide receiver Anquan Boldin be heading to Baltimore?
The Arizona Cardinals have officially placed Boldin on the trading block, and the Ravens are interested in the 28-year-old wideout according to numerous media outlets.
Boldin would certainly be the playmaker the Ravens’ offense needs, but there are several barriers to overcome before the three-time Pro Bowl selection can begin reining in passes from quarterback Joe Flacco.
The Cardinals are reportedly seeking a first- and third-round pick, a likely sticking point for the Ravens who have only six picks in the draft. General manager Ozzie Newsome has not traded out of the first round since 2003 when the Ravens sent their 2004 first-round pick to the New England Patriots in order to select quarterback Kyle Boller.
The fact that the Ravens are even discussing the possibility of trading picks for Boldin suggests a lack of enthusiasm for the group of receivers that could be available with the 26th overall pick. Maryland’s Darrius Heyward-Bey, Rutgers’ Kenny Britt, and North Carolina’s Hakeem Nicks have been mentioned as potential first-round choices, but all have weaknesses and would likely struggle to make an impact in their rookie season.
Director of player personnel Eric DeCosta mentioned earlier in the week that more failed picks have come at the wide receiver position than any other between picks 24 through 32.
And despite Newsome’s immense success on draft day, wide receiver is not a position on which the Ravens typically hit a home run. Past early-round picks include Patrick Johnson, Travis Taylor, Devard Darling, Mark Clayton, and Yamon Figurs–not exactly a group that strikes fear in a secondary’s heart.
If the Ravens are truly serious about getting better at the wide receiver position immediately, Boldin is a far better option than anyone in the draft, including top-rated receiver Michael Crabtree from Texas Tech. While a young receiver could become a threat in the future, none would transform the Ravens into a legitimate Super Bowl contender like Boldin.
Even the asking price of a first- and third-round pick is not a steep one when solely considering the value of the picks. Using the NFL draft-pick value chart, a point system used by general managers to consider potential trades, the Ravens’ first-round pick (26th overall) is worth 700 points and the third-round pick (88th overall) is worth 150 for a total of 850 points. This is roughly equivalent to the 20th overall pick.
The chart is only used as a tool for evaluating potential trades, but the surrendered picks would be worth no more than the value of a mid-first-round pick. In return, the Ravens would receive one of the best receivers in the NFL. Despite the possibility of only having four remaining picks, the decision is a no-brainer from this standpoint.
And remember, the Cardinals are asking for a first- and third-round pick; that doesn’t mean they will get them.
The bigger issue working against a potential deal is obviously the money. Boldin wants out of Arizona, because he wants a new, lucrative contract to replace the current one with two years remaining. Any team acquiring the wideout would unquestionably have to sign him to a new deal with a huge signing bonus, a proposition far more costly than signing the draft picks that would be surrendered.
The reality is the Ravens have very little salary-cap room. Even the possibility of restructuring existing deals and releasing one or two average veterans would not clear enough room to sign Boldin.
The only way the trade happens would be the signing of Terrell Suggs to a long-term deal, something Newsome has been unable to do after designating the linebacker with the franchise tag for the second straight season. Suggs’ 2009 salary is $10.2 million, eating up a large chunk of cap room.
Signing Suggs to a long-term extension would create several million dollars of cap room, leaving the flexibility to complete a Boldin deal.
Suggs discussed the possibility of providing a hometown discount to re-sign linebackers Ray Lewis and Bart Scott earlier in the offseason. It would be interesting to see if he would be more flexible in signing a deal if it meant the Ravens could add an elite receiver to the offense.
Even if Suggs agrees to an extension, Newsome will have to assess whether Boldin’s production is worth the much larger financial commitment than the modest investments that would go into the draft selections.
Considering any deal for Boldin would involve an expensive contract, Arizona may not find a team willing to trade the draft picks they desire. It’s possible the Ravens could offer a first-round pick and a conditional 2010 selection, perhaps a third- or fourth-rounder, to get the deal done.
It’s always a risk trading early draft picks for a veteran player, but Boldin is the receiving threat that could push Flacco to become an elite quarterback in the NFL. The combination of Boldin and Derrick Mason would become one of the best receiving duos in the league. It would also allow Mark Clayton or Demetrius Williams to compete against the third or fourth defensive back on the field, creating favorable matchups in Cam Cameron’s offense.
But what about critics suggesting Boldin cannot put up the big numbers without fellow receiver Larry Fitzgerald in the same offense?
Boldin caught 101 passes for 1,377 yards and eight touchdowns in his rookie season in 2003 while Fitzgerald was making acrobatic catches–at the University of Pittsburgh.
I’d say he’s an elite receiver.
The need for an improved offense is more apparent when considering the age of the defense. Mainstays such as Lewis and Trevor Pryce are in the twilight of their careers (both will be 34 at the start of the season) and cannot be expected to play at the same level that they have over the past few seasons. Even the dynamic Ed Reed will be 31 in September and has an impingement in his neck and shoulder that could potentially shorten his career.
The defense can still play at a championship level, but for how long? The window for the veterans on the team is small, so Boldin could be viewed as the missing piece for a trip to the Super Bowl. Keep in mind, this team was a fourth-quarter touchdown drive away from advancing to the Super Bowl last January.
Boldin could be the difference in simply being a playoff contender in 2009 versus becoming a legitimate Super Bowl contender right there with Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and New England.
They’re close. Trading for Boldin is certainly a risk, both financially and to future player development by surrendering draft picks, but it just might be enough to get the Ravens to the Super Bowl.
With great risk, comes great reward.
Trading for Boldin is a chance worth taking to seize the Lombardi Trophy next February.
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April 19th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Luke,
You make some great points here. I’m still on the fence whether I think this is a good idea or not, but your argument has swayed me a bit closer to agreeing with you.
I think Boldin is a top 10 receiver and you can’t help but see what kind of impact he would make on this team. Not only in development of guys like Williams and Clayton, who would get easier chances not lining up against the top defenders or even second best, but also for Flacco.
He would finally have a guy that can stretch the field and he can use that rifle he calls an arm and make some big plays happen for us.
With that would come even more confidence, and a bit of that arrogance you need to be a top tier QB in the NFL.
All that being said, I’m still not a 100% sold on Boldin. He is injury prone, having played 16 games in only two of the seasons he’s been in the league.
I know injuries are part of the game and you can’t guarantee anyone will play all 16 games every season, but what if we give up two high picks and Boldin gets hurt on the first play of preseason and is out for the entire season or even half of it. We are stuck paying a guy that is standing on the sidelines and maybe those two picks are lighting it up for the Cardinals.
Ozzie is a master at the draft, we have the 26th pick this year. Conventional wisdom would say that we should pick a WR with our first pick but that’s not how Ozzie operates. He has his rankings and he will take the best player available at 26 regardless of the position he plays. This worked in 1996 when we drafted some guy out of Miami named Ray Lewis in that spot.
I’m just not sure I want to take the bat out of Ozzie’s hands. I would rather see who we can get out of the draft and then maybe work a trade later, maybe sending a player already on our roster or one of the guys we draft for Boldin or another WR.
Also the Cards have the 31st pick in the first round so trading with us doesn’t make a whole lot of difference in their positioning. A team like the Jags in the 8th spot would be better if they are looking to get a high end player. Plus Boldin, I believe, is from Florida so he may be more interested in playing there.
Granted great players do come out at the bottom ends of the first round and even later, Ray, and Heap are two such players from our own history, but it depends on what the Cards are looking for.
I agree the window is closing for guys like Ray and Pryce and I think we do need to try to win now, but as you said we were one drive away from possibly going to the Super Bowl last season, maybe one of those picks is the guy that could put us over the top at a lower cost.
(L.J. - Thanks for the response, Chad. You make some great points about Ozzie Newsome. It’s no sure thing that he takes a wide receiver at 26. He could just as easily take a linebacker such as Rey Maualuga or James Laurinaitis and look to take a wideout like a Derrick Williams in the second. Taking the best player available has always been the philosophy of Newsome’s success in the draft.)
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April 19th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
Really good read…Luke clearly has a understanding of how the NFL and the Ravens operate. Most columnists will talk about the idea of trading for a veteran but don’t know nearly the amount that Luke does about not only how trades work but also all the little things that would need to happen in order for the trade to happen (i.e. restructuring Sugg’s contract in order to clear cap space). Overall, great writter with a clear understanding of the NFL and sports in general.
(L.J. - Thanks for the kind words.)
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April 20th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
I got ***** when reading about the possibility of the Ravens trading for Boldin last week. It may seem like a lot by giving up 2 draft picks and a lot of contract money, but the bottom line is Boldin is a legit #1 WR in this league! By making the trade the Ravens will lock up their QB and WR questions for the next 5 years minimum. Good blog Luke, idiots like me can give their opinions but you back yours up with facts. Keep them coming so I have something to do at work.
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April 20th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
I guess you can’t say ***** in a comment, now I know.