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Even with the loss to Duke, Maryland seems to be on the inside looking out, as far as the Big Dance goes. Let’s assume Maryland ends up 8-8 in the ACC, beating both NC State and Virginia, but losing to Wake. That might be enough, or it might not. Here are a few teams, some in action tonight, who could sneak up and steal Maryland’s spot in the bracket.
Notre Dame: A pre-season top ten team, who then lost seven, that’s right, seven games in a row. Now, they’re 7-8 in the Big East with three games remaining. They go to Uconn this weekend, where they’ll get whacked, but then they come home to play Villanova, and St John’s. If they win both of those, they’ll be 9-9 in the Big East. They won’t have the win against a #3 team like Maryland does against Carolina, but they did beat a #7 Louisville team by 33 points.
Cincinnati: Nobody gives the Bearcats any love, but if they beat West Virginia tonight, at home, they’ll be 8-7 in the Big East. With South Florida and Seton Hall remaining, they could very easily go 10-8, and 10-8 in the Big East will get them in.
VA Tech: At 7-6 in the ACC, the Hokies would appear to be in good shape, but considering their remaining three games are: home versus Duke, home versus Carolina, and at FSU, VA Tech is going to have earn their way in. They will be expected to lose all three of these games, but if they can win any of these games to get to 8-8, coupled with their wins at Clemson and at then #1 Wake Forrest, the Hokies might be hard to leave out.
Miami: This is the team everyone has given up on. Right now they sit at 5-8. However, when looking through their schedule, the soft part is coming up. While Maryland, at 6-7, has three of their six conference wins against ACC doormats Virginia and GA Tech, Miami has yet to play EITHER Virginia or GA Tech. In fact, their five conference wins are: Maryland, FSU, Wake (by 27) and Boston College, twice. None of those were easy wins. Now, with a remaining schedule of: at Virginia, at GA Tech, and home versus NC State, the Hurricanes have a very realistic shot of ending up 8-8. Their best non-conference win was only against Kentucky, but they don’t have a bad non-conference loss. Would 8-8 with a blowout win against Wake and a season sweep of BC do it for Miami? It just might.
UAB: Their conference is pillowy soft, and their brutal non-conference schedule left them without a big win. However, if they beat Memphis tonight, at home, they’re in.
Michigan: If they beat Purdue tonight, at home, they’ll be 8-8 in the Big Ten with two road games (at Wisconsin and at Minnesota) remaining. I think the Big Ten stinks, but the RPI has it rated as the second strongest conference in America. No one can score in this league, but somehow it’s rated higher than the Big East. If Michigan ends up 9-9 in the Big Ten, having non-conference wins over Duke and UCLA, they would be hard to keep out.
As far as the Terps go, last night’s loss doesn’t hurt nearly as much as a win would have helped. They still find themselves in good shape. I think if they beat Wake, and win one of the road games, they will be in as good or better shape than a lot of teams come conference tournament time. However, if they lose to Wake, and end up 8-8 by beating NC State and Virginia, they find themselves in a very interesting position. They would only have two good wins on the year, and while beating Michigan State (by 18) and Carolina are certainly good wins, they may prove out to be the only wins the Terps have against teams making the tournament. Maryland has beaten Michigan, VA Tech, and split with Miami, so that would play in their favor. However, it Maryland finds themselves on the bubble with all of these teams, it would be hard for the Terps to say “those are quality wins against really good teams…but not really good enough to take out spot.”
These next two and half weeks are going to be great!
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February 26th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
[...] Teams Who Could Steal the Terp’s Bubble | Mark Mussina’s Blog | WNST [...]
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February 26th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
I actually think MD is in better shape then ND.Games against UCONN and Villanova are going to be very difficult.If things shake out the way you mentioned with Cincinnati and ND,does that mean the Big East gets 10 teams in? (EDIT:MM) Right now, I agree. MD has much more winnable games. But, if the Irish beat Villanova, which is in South Bend, it will get them to 9-9 in the conference and add another quality win. And yes, now that Cincinnati has beaten West Virginia, if Notre Dame beats Villanova, and neither Cincy or ND lose to any teams they shouldn’t lose to, the Big East will send 10. Some of this will depends on what happens for the ACC bubbles. What if Maryland, Miami, and Va Tech all end up 7-9, which is very possible. Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Providence will all get in over 7-9 teams. Personally, I think all three of these ACC bubble teams get to 8-8. VA Tech is going to beat someone. Miami is going to win out and Maryland finds a way to win twice. Can you imagine the atmosphere at the Comcast Center next week against Wake knowing what hangs in the balance? But still, don’t you think 10-8 in the Big East will get in over 8-8 in the ACC? I do.
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February 26th, 2009 at 8:21 pm
I’m not convinced UAB is a lock either.They are 0-3 against the only teams in their conference who are worth anything(Memphis,Houston and Tulsa)and have 1 win out of conference (EDIT:MM) If UAB would have beaten Memphis, they would have been in. One great win, and RPI which would have moved into the 30’s (it was 40 before the game), plus they would have ended up with 22 or 23 wins. That would have done it.
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February 27th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Mark,I just don’t see 10 teams from the Big East getting in,,that’s insane.I know it is tough conference but no way that happens.They aren’t even the highest rated conference.I know there is plenty of BBall left to play but it is fun(though sometimes for a MD fan frustrating)to look at how you think all this will shake out.Looking at the latest bracket Lunardi put out has some odd picks.I’m looking at it as it relates to MD.He has Miami in.His last four includes PSU,,Michigan,,and Oklahoma State.OK State? I’m sorry but when you play in a so called power conference like the Big 12 and your best win is against Siena I just don’t buy that.How can Miami be in? I thought this was a “if the tourney were tomorrow”thing? They are 6-8 in the ACC and have lost 6 of their last nine.yea they have a good shot to get to 8-8 but so does MD and VT.Frankly I don’t think the A-10 should be a two bid league.Dayton has two nice wins but A SOS in the triple digits with just three games vs. teams in the RPI top 50. Eight wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 200. You cant tell me a team like this deserves to be in over any of the teams e discussed.