Tag Archive | "Mike Elias"

Orioles' Joe Jordan introduces pitcher Bundy to the media before the Orioles' MLB American League baseball game against the Blue Jays in Baltimore

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Bundy trade serves as reminder of Orioles’ past — and unknown future

Posted on 04 December 2019 by Luke Jones

Dylan Bundy was once the consensus best pitching prospect in baseball and considered a centerpiece of the Orioles’ bright future.

Making his major league debut two months shy of his 20th birthday seven years ago, Bundy was thought to be the future ace of a Baltimore club that was about to make its first postseason appearance in 15 years and entering a competitive window that would bring two more trips to the playoffs in a five-year period. On Wednesday, the 27-year-old with a career 4.76 ERA, diminishing velocity, and a longer history of injuries than successes was traded to the Los Angeles Angels for four minor-league pitchers.

With general manager Mike Elias clearly in the midst of an offseason teardown after a mostly status quo 2019 used to evaluate every aspect of the organization, Bundy was always on borrowed time with the Orioles. The trade hardly falls into the same category of a full-blown salary dump like Monday’s Jonathan Villar deal — which was a tough pill to swallow for anyone searching for any redeeming entertainment value in the 2020 Orioles — but a league-average starter projected to fetch upwards of $5 million in arbitration and with two years of remaining club control was an asset that could be used to at least improve the baseline of pitching depth in the organization. Of course, we all knew Bundy and Villar weren’t going to be part of the Orioles’ next contending club — whenever that might be.

Right-handers Kyle Bradish, Isaac Mattson, Kyle Brnovich, and Zach Peek are unlikely to land on any top 100 prospect lists anytime soon, but the marked strides made in the minors under the guidance of director of pitching Chris Holt last year offer hope that Elias and the organization see potential and value in these four pitchers, especially with Peek and Brnovich having just been drafted in the sixth and eighth round respectively last June. The same logic can apply to left-hander Easton Lucas, who was viewed as little more than a token piece from Miami in the Villar deal.

But there are no sure things other than the organization now having cut roughly $15 million in projected payroll for 2020. Those savings will be championed by optimists as fruitful during a rebuild, but we have no way of knowing whether those resources will go back into baseball operations in some form or simply into ownership’s pockets, the latter possibility painting the more cynical picture of clubs “tanking” in today’s game while still charging major-league prices.

In Villar’s case, there appeared to be little downside to keeping a productive player on a club that had already lost 108 games last year and slashed its Opening Day payroll in half from 2017 to 2019. No viable infield prospect is knocking at the major-league door either, but he was deemed too expensive to play on a last-place club.

Bundy clearly brought a more valuable return, but a major league club that struggled mightily last year just to field a functional pitching staff — one that avoids the need for position players to pitch in the late innings if nothing else — will now be tasked with filling an additional 30 starts and 160 innings. Perhaps utility man Stevie Wilkerson should be on a throwing progression this spring.

Yes, the thought of the Orioles being even worse in 2020 after a combined 223 losses the last two seasons is difficult to stomach if you’re still trying to watch on a semi-nightly basis, but Elias has never shied away from the organization’s “strategic objectives” being solely about the future. That’s why you wonder if trades of Mychal Givens and, yes, possibly Trey Mancini could be right around the corner.

The short-term pain — alright, let’s call it medium-term if we’re being realistic — is intended to reap long-term success. As Elias said in a conference call Wednesday evening, the goal isn’t to field a more competitive team in 2020 but to field a sustainable playoff contender at Camden Yards in the future. None of this is surprising or even the wrong strategy, but that doesn’t make the current state easy or enjoyable in what’s ultimately an entertainment business.

And it isn’t necessarily destined to work in the same way it did for the Houston Astros or the Chicago Cubs.

In the same way Orioles supporters are now daydreaming about better days with Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall, Bundy was once the future. But instead of being a difference-maker for a 2014 club that ended up falling four wins shy of an American League pennant or becoming a young ace for a contender, he never realized that once-great potential because of injuries and became only a serviceable major league starter once the Orioles’ competitive window was already closing.

Bundy’s departure is both a reminder of those better days for the Orioles and his own unfulfilled promise.

That same kind of hope is all Orioles fans have right now. With no guarantees of a reward down the line.

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Davis incident resolved, but that doesn’t erase obvious for Orioles

Posted on 09 August 2019 by Luke Jones

BALTIMORE — The AL-favorite Houston Astros walked right past the media scrum outside the Orioles clubhouse that included a $161 million first baseman hitting .182 for a last-place team who was trying to explain why he went after his manager in the dugout Wednesday.

It was quite a moment in time within the baseball world as opposite ends of the spectrum were on display. You could only imagine what was going through the minds of Astros players, who have visions of winning their second World Series in three years this October. Meanwhile, the Orioles can only try to avoid setting the franchise record for losses for the second straight year.

Chris Davis, Brandon Hyde, and general manager Mike Elias did their best Friday to defuse an incident that was a terrible look for a rebuilding club already facing more than its share of embarrassment on the way to a second straight season of 100-plus losses. The 33-year-old Davis explained he’d reached a “breaking point” Wednesday after a difficult inning in the field without revealing what exactly triggered him needing to be restrained by hitting coach Don Long and teammate Mark Trumbo. Davis said he left the clubhouse before the conclusion of Wednesday’s game to avoid being a distraction to his teammates, a decision that apparently won’t trigger discipline despite how that type of act is traditionally received.

Hyde admitted to getting “a little frustrated” with how Davis was handling his own anger in the dugout before reiterating how highly he thinks of the veteran as a person, suggesting he’s had more individual conversations with Davis than any other player on the club and saying this was the first time anything remotely like this had happened. You hope the experience will only help the first-year manager in how he relates to his players, an area in which he’d received rave reviews — including from Davis — prior to Wednesday’s confrontation.

Yes, all parties appear ready to move on from an incident that really shouldn’t define Davis’ character as his charitable efforts are no secret. It’s not about trying to divide the blame between Davis and Hyde either. Understand these are two very competitive adults and not some Little League player with his dad as the coach, but Davis knows losing his mind to the point of trying to fight his boss is completely unacceptable while Hyde realizes he probably could have used a little more tact in what he said to a frustrated player while in plain sight of TV cameras.

On Friday, Davis again fought the perception that he doesn’t care about his poor performance, which has always been the low hanging fruit of the many talking points related to his multiyear collapse as a major league hitter. He’s been far from perfect handling himself, but no athlete would ever reach such a level of success in the first place if he was content with such abject failure, regardless of the money he’s making.

This isn’t a question about effort or whether Davis cares. As humiliating as Wednesday’s incident was, many wouldn’t be reacting with the same venom if he were hitting .250 with 30 home runs at this point in the season. This is still all about performance with the unflattering scene of Davis being held back in the Orioles dugout only highlighting the obvious that can no longer be swept under the rug by the stray good week at the plate or a flimsy compliment about his defense that’s been average at best for a few years now.

This terribly disappointing marriage between Davis and the Orioles needs to end.

We know all about the extraordinary money Davis is still owed on a contract running through the 2022 season and the deferred payments to be made long after that, but the numbers show the Orioles continue to be a worse team with him on it, no matter how much anyone wishes it could be different. A new regime with new ideas and methods has tried its best to “fix” the former two-time home run champion to salvage some value, but that’s resulted in minimal improvement that’s taken him from a historically poor 2018 campaign to still being one of the worst players in baseball this year.

Over his last 1,075 plate appearances dating back to the 2017 All-Star break, Davis has batted .181 with 37 homers and a .589 on-base plus slugging percentage. He’s been worth minus-4.1 wins above replacement over the last three seasons, according to FanGraphs. He owns a brutal .589 OPS this season, and that’s with Hyde not even playing him against most lefties. He’s gone 5-for-52 against southpaws in 2019.

It’s not my money, but there’s just no logical argument to be made to continue on this path beyond this season, especially with Triple-A prospect Ryan Mountcastle waiting in the wings and ready to be tested in the majors by next season at the latest. The Orioles are already playing natural first baseman Trey Mancini — who certainly tries his best — in the outfield to the detriment of their defense, and Mountcastle will only create a greater logjam of first base-designated hitter types if Davis remains in 2020.

Asked where Davis’ future with the Orioles stood Friday, Elias dismissed any notion of the dugout incident factoring into a potential decision down the road and offered a similar refrain to what we’ve heard since he was hired last November.

“I hope he starts playing better. We’ll continue to revisit our plan there, but I’ve said before he’s on the team,” Elias said. “We don’t have any plans or expectations to alter that fact. He’s under contract, and that’s not something that I take lightly. He’s got a lot of talent, and we’re not going to walk away from the fact that he’s talented and he’s here for a while.

“We’ll continue to talk to him; we’ll continue to work with him during the season as best we can. We’ll see what the plans are over the offseason. I’ve been keeping in touch with him this year about his program. This will continue.”

Of course, we know he’s going to make such statements about Davis being on the club until he isn’t anymore. That’s where John Angelos and Louis Angelos come into the picture as any team in any professional sport wanting to move on from a player still owed lucrative money is going to need ownership’s approval. Elias said he did speak to them about what happened Wednesday, but it appears the organization will continue with their high-priced first baseman, who was sitting the bench to start the opener of a three-game set with Houston. It’s not a disciplinary move; that’s just where Davis finds himself more frequently these days.

No, Davis’ spat with Hyde may not prove to be the final straw in his ultimate exit — and wouldn’t be in a vacuum — but it did draw more attention to what’s so painfully obvious. The Orioles can’t ignore reality much longer if they expect anyone to fully buy into a new direction and a new era.

It’s not about effort, character, whether Davis used to be a really good major league player, or even those few embarrassing moments in the dugout Wednesday. As difficult as it might be for the organization to accept, the decision isn’t even about money since he’ll be paid regardless.

Do the Orioles want to continue making their team worse by refusing to let go of some fading idea of what Davis used to be a long time ago, or do they want to truly turn the page?

It’s that simple and obvious, no matter how embarrassing the scene in the dugout might have been.

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Twelve Orioles thoughts on quiet trade deadline

Posted on 01 August 2019 by Luke Jones

With the Orioles making only a minor-league trade before Wednesday’s 4 p.m. trade deadline, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:

1. I had no problem with Mike Elias standing pat after the Andrew Cashner deal. He had little urgency to force any trades with a roster lacking any pending free agents aside from Mark Trumbo. These guys can be dealt this winter with minimal consequence to their value in a vacuum.

2. Teams are valuing young prospects more and more and simply aren’t giving up anything real for middle-of-the-road talent, even those with years of control remaining. The truth is the Orioles just didn’t have much to give up that really moves the meter for a contender.

3. Last year’s return of mostly minor-league filler reminded that making trades for the sake of doing it — the Kevin Gausman and Jonathan Schoop deals come to mind — isn’t wise. As Elias said, a trade offers “a quick high,” but it’s wrong if you don’t believe in the names you’re getting.

4. Trey Mancini is a good player with three more years of control, but think back to the many productive first base or designated hitter types the Orioles have acquired cheaply over the last eight or nine years. Right now, I believe he has more value in Baltimore than anywhere else.

5. However, I don’t understand the persistent chatter about a Mancini extension considering he’ll hit free agency before his age 31 season. I literally typed this thought as Chris Davis struck out to lower his average to .187. Let’s see where Mancini and the club are in another year or two.

6. Some pointed to the many available relievers to explain Mychal Givens remaining, but teams looking for help are focused on the present before the future. Two more years of control is nice, but Givens owns a 4.54 ERA and has allowed 10 homers. Not attractive for a pennant race.

7. Jonathan Villar not being traded was mildly surprising since he has only one more year of control, but he’s the kind of player likely lost in the wash with the elimination of the August waiver deadline. A good finish probably keeps his offseason value similar to where it was Wednesday.

8. Hanser Alberto has been one of the better stories of 2019 and is fun to watch, but did anyone really expect a team to trade anything of interest for a guy who’s had a few nice months on the heels of being waived four times this past winter? Come on.

9. Even if only giving up cash, Philadelphia must have really liked Dan Straily’s 2.38 ERA in six Norfolk starts to even consider acquiring him. He’s still tied for 12th in the AL in homers allowed despite last pitching for the Orioles on June 18.

10. In dealing All-Star closer Shane Greene and outfielder Nick Castellanos, Detroit probably became the favorite to secure the 2020 first overall pick. If you want to be upset about the Orioles not making any trades, that’s probably the appropriate lens through which to look.

11. The lack of trades didn’t fuel any outrage about the Orioles “tanking.” They’re clearly not doing everything possible to win at the major league level after a 115-loss season in which they were actually trying, but Elias could have made trades solely to dump salary and make the club worse.

12. Elias just watched his old boss, Houston general manager Jeff Luhnow, complete a deadline trade for a former Cy Young Award winner and legitimate ace for the second time in three years. It sure will be fun if he’s in that position with the Orioles in four or five years.

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Elias, Orioles quiet as trade deadline passes

Posted on 31 July 2019 by Luke Jones

The trade deadline passed Wednesday with Orioles general manager Mike Elias standing pat with his major league roster.

Despite plenty of speculation since veteran starting pitcher Andrew Cashner was traded to Boston for two 17-year-old prospects on July 13, Elias elected not to deal the likes of second baseman Jonathan Villar, relief pitcher Mychal Givens, starting pitcher Dylan Bundy, and slugger Trey Mancini, who all remain under club control beyond the 2019 season. With Cashner being Baltimore’s only real trade chip hitting free agency this fall, Elias felt little urgency to make a deal if he didn’t believe the return was improving the overall talent level in the organization.

Villar is under club control through next season while Givens and Bundy aren’t scheduled to become free agents until after 2020, but none are having standout seasons, meaning Elias wasn’t negotiating from a position of great leverage and can always revisit trade talks this offseason.

There was reported interest in Mancini, but the right fielder and first baseman doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2022 season and is the rebuilding Orioles’ most recognizable player, which likely made the asking price too steep for possible suitors. Mancini’s defensive limitations also dent his overall value as he’s been worth just 2.1 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. In other words, the 27-year-old is probably more valuable to the Orioles at this point than to a contending club that’s likely reluctant to part with top prospects for a player ideally suited for first base or the designated hitter spot.

The Orioles did complete a minor-league trade before the 4 p.m. deadline, sending right-handed pitcher Dan Straily to Philadelphia for cash considerations. Straily, 30, was designated for assignment on June 20 after pitching to an awful 9.82 ERA with 22 home runs allowed in 47 2/3 innings and had accepted a minor-league assignment to Triple-A Norfolk where he’d posted a 2.38 ERA in six starts.

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Twelve Orioles thoughts on Andrew Cashner trade

Posted on 14 July 2019 by Luke Jones

With the Orioles trading veteran starting pitcher Andrew Cashner to the Boston Red Sox for 17-year-old Venezuelan position prospects Elio Prado and Noelberth Romero, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:

1. No one knows whether these academy-level prospects will even sniff the majors one day, but it was refreshing seeing Mike Elias target long-term upside over moderate-floor, low-ceiling talent only guaranteed to clog up the 40-man roster. There was way too much of that in the past.

2. This trade was a reminder how difficult it is prying away prospects today, something we saw last year with even an elite rental piece like Manny Machado. You’re not getting much value above the lowest minor-league levels for 2 1/2 months of a career league-average starter making some real money.

3. Credit Cashner for reinventing himself by pitching up in the zone more and doubling his changeup usage from 2018. That’s become his best pitch, evident by FanGraphs’ pitch value metric ranking it the second-best changeup in the majors among qualified hurlers. The new regime’s fingerprints are all over those tweaks.

4. Elias cited the strong numbers from Prado in the Dominican Summer League, complimenting the center fielder’s pop and speed while adding Orioles scouts have liked what they’ve seen from him in his first professional season. He received an $85,000 signing bonus last July, per SoxProspects.com.

5. Romero has more modest numbers and has mostly played third base, but the Orioles like the contact he’s been making and believe he has a chance to develop as a shortstop. Boston gave him a $275,000 last July, per SoxProspects.com.

6. Elias said no other deals were imminent, but Mychal Givens will be an attractive chip if he strings together a few more outings like Saturday’s two-inning save. His 4.50 ERA is mediocre, but he’s striking out a career-high 12.8 batters per nine innings and is under club control through 2021.

7. The Orioles entered Sunday with a record just 2 1/2 games worse than Detroit, who sported a minus-163 run differential for the season and a 6-27 record since June 1. Thoughts of the 2020 first overall pick had to cross Elias’ mind when dealing Cashner.

8. Dylan Bundy isn’t expected to be out long with right knee tendinitis, but the current starting rotation behind surprising All-Star lefty John Means consists of three pitchers who weren’t even in the organization at the start of June. That’s astonishing.

9. Cashner’s Sunday replacement, the soft-tossing Tom Eshelman, didn’t have a good final line after giving up a two-run homer in the sixth, but he was competitive and struck out seven in 5 2/3 innings with five coming on his curveball. There’s plenty of opportunity for minor-league “misfits” in Baltimore now.

10. Cashner signed with Baltimore 17 months ago thinking he was joining a club with at least a chance of competing for a wild-card spot in 2018. The Orioles went 75-178 over his time here.

11. I’m not saying a division rival would be your top choice as a trade partner, but any “old-school” belief that the Orioles shouldn’t deal with AL East rivals is as foolish as marginalizing the international market for years. End of discussion.

12. Asked to comment on the Cashner trade after Saturday night’s 12-4 loss, Brandon Hyde said the Orioles are “a million miles away from being where we’re going to be here sometime soon.” I couldn’t help but think the Baltimore manager needed a hug after the veteran starter was dealt.

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Twelve Orioles thoughts at 2019 All-Star break

Posted on 08 July 2019 by Luke Jones

With the Orioles playing better recently before hitting the All-Star break, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:

1. John Means may not continue pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA, but going from an organizational afterthought to the first Baltimore rookie since 1966 to be named to the All-Star team in three months is extraordinary, regardless of the club’s record or any disappointment over someone else not making it.

2. I couldn’t help but think Trey Mancini would have made the Midsummer Classic if he were an everyday first baseman. He tries his best in right and has arguably improved going off the eyeball test, but the defensive metrics really dent his overall value in terms of wins above replacement.

3. After going nearly eight weeks without back-to-back wins and over two months without a series win, the Orioles had two sets of consecutive victories — including a three-win stretch — and won two series in 10 days. Even when you’re the worst team in the majors, baseball remains weird.

4. That recent prosperity has quieted chatter of making history and surpassing the infamous 1962 New York Mets — for now. With a 5-4 stretch going into the break, the Orioles are on pace to go 49-113, which would be a two-game improvement from last year. Yay?

5. Andrew Cashner has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts to shrink his ERA to 3.83. The 32-year-old could be an attractive rental, but don’t completely dismiss his value as a rotation anchor and veteran presence if you’re only fetching spare parts in return.

6. DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez each tossed a scoreless inning in the MLB Futures Game in Cleveland. The pitching at the major-league level couldn’t be worse right now, but Sunday offered a reminder of the talented arms in the minor-league system, especially at the lower levels.

7. Renato Nunez joined Boog Powell and Manny Machado as the only Orioles under age 26 to homer 20 or more times before the break. His raw power and streakiness remind me of a less patient Mark Reynolds, but Nunez has drawn 13 walks over his last 110 plate appearances.

8. Though Chris Davis has nudged his average up to .189, Brandon Hyde should continue to be very selective with playing time. The 33-year-old has been better against right-handers with a .213 average and .699 OPS this season, but he’s batting .100 with a .243 OPS against lefties.

9. On waivers four times last offseason, Hanser Alberto ranking sixth in the AL in average is a good story. He’s been useful, but it’s an example why batting average offers a limited picture of ability. The free-and-light-swinging infielder owns a .718 OPS, well below the league average.

10. A few months ago, center field appeared to be a position with an encouraging future with the presence of Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays. Instead, Mullins was demoted after a 6-for-64 start and is batting just .205 at Triple-A Norfolk while injuries continue to stunt Hays’ development. Very disappointing.

11. It will take more time for Mike Elias and senior director of international scouting Koby Perez to start landing the higher-profile signings in the international market, but the mere sight of the Orioles section not being barren in Baseball America’s signing tracker on July 2 was refreshing.

12. Putting aside my dislike for the mostly ugly holiday uniforms we’ve seen across baseball in recent years or the comparisons made to Boston’s hat, I wouldn’t mind seeing an alternate “B” cap. The script style used for the road jersey would be a better choice than the block letter, however.

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Twelve Orioles thoughts on Adley Rutschman’s Baltimore introduction

Posted on 25 June 2019 by Luke Jones

With Orioles first overall pick Adley Rutschman being introduced in Baltimore after signing a record-breaking $8.1 million bonus Monday, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:

1. In a season with very little to look forward to, fans attending Tuesday’s game were treated to a look at the new face of the Orioles rebuild. The standing ovation Rutschman received was energetic and one of hope from a fan base needing much more to cheer about these days.

2. Rutschman being introduced on the same day Manny Machado returned to Camden Yards was fitting. The Orioles also owned the majors’ worst record when Machado was selected third overall June 7, 2010. Twenty-six months later, he debuted on a playoff-qualifying team. Fans can dream.

3. Mike Elias said Rutschman will soon report to Sarasota and spend a brief time with the Gulf Coast Orioles before going to short-season Single-A Aberdeen later this summer. If he excels for the IronBirds, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a late-season promotion to Delmarva for the postseason.

4. Rutschman will see time at first base and as a designated hitter in addition to catching duties this season. The organization is very comfortable with his work behind the plate, so there’s no sense overworking him there if the greater focus in 2019 is getting him professional at-bats.

5. The 21-year-old was very businesslike during his introductory press conference, but you couldn’t miss the big smile on his face when he was asked about his makeup as a catcher. He relishes the opportunity to impact so many parts of the game behind the plate.

6. Rutschman admitted the Oregon State pitching coach called most pitches — very typical in college baseball — but he offered more input as he gained experience and did call his own pitches in the Cape Cod League and playing for Team USA. This will be an important part of his development.

7. Swinging from the left side, Rutschman put on a show during batting practice with the current Orioles before Tuesday’s game. In roughly 10 swings, I saw him hit a ball onto Eutaw Street, another over the center-field fence, and a third off the right-center wall. Not too bad.

8. There’s no truth to the rumor that Brandon Hyde lobbied to add him to Tuesday’s lineup, but Rutschman looked the part in a setting where all eyes were on him. Of course, he’s dealt with the spotlight for a couple years playing in a high-profile program with scouts always watching.

9. Orioles scout Brandon Verley was glowing in his assessment of the player he began tracking at the high school level and has seen Rutschman swing a wooden bat multiple times with no concerns. “You give him a toothpick, and he’d figure out how to hit.” That’s a pretty good line.

10. Rutschman mentioned Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina as major leaguers he admired growing up. That had to please Elias, who is very familiar with both as a former St. Louis Cardinals scout and witnessed firsthand the impact Molina has brought as their longtime catcher.

11. Watching Rutschman interact with the likes of Keon Broxton and Dwight Smith Jr. in his hitting group, I couldn’t help but wonder how many current players will be around when the young catcher is promoted to the majors. The Orioles will try to take their time with him, of course.

12. I’m always reminded how special a day like Tuesday is for the many Orioles and Ravens draft picks I’ve covered over the years. Most attention falls on their playing potential and the business side, but witnessing an entire family’s joy on such a life-changing day never gets old.

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Baltimore Orioles' David Hess, right, reacts as New York Yankees' Gleyber Torres, left, runs the bases after hitting a home run during the fourth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, May 15, 2019, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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All bets off on Orioles’ potential path toward infamy

Posted on 24 June 2019 by Luke Jones

We knew this season would be bad for the Orioles.

When the most optimistic of forecasts suggest a club might find a way to avoid 100 losses, you know you’re nowhere close to being in a good place. But general manager Mike Elias and the new Orioles regime made no false promises after a 115-loss season, easily the worst campaign in club history.

There were never going to be shortsighted moves made in the name of a quick fix, nor should there have been. The goal is to build a championship-caliber organization in the years to come — not to exhaust enough resources to lose 92 games instead of the number with which the Orioles will ultimately finish. Signing Manny Machado and Bryce Harper wouldn’t have transformed this year’s team into anything close to being a contender, let alone spending money on lesser players to try to grab a few extra wins that no one would have cared about in the big picture.

In other words, no one should be surprised Baltimore owns the worst record in baseball as the season nears its midpoint. But that hasn’t made it any easier to watch on a nightly basis — if you still have the stomach for it in late June. Those suggesting it couldn’t get worse or citing historical examples as a reason to anticipate some slight improvement in the win-loss department were clearly wrong.

After a 1-6 road trip that included three losses to a Seattle team that had gone 19-44 since a 13-2 start to begin the season, the Orioles are now on pace to lose more games than they did last year. Brandon Hyde’s club has gone 9-34 since last winning back-to-back games to improve to 13-22 on May 6. Over that seven-week stretch without consecutive victories, the Orioles went a combined 4-9 against the Mariners, Detroit, San Francisco, and Toronto, four of the seven worst teams in the majors right now.

Baltimore hasn’t won a series since April 24, the day before the start of the NFL draft. A month from Tuesday, the Ravens will hold their first full-squad training camp practice, and there’s little confidence the Orioles will have won a series by then either.

The other phases of the game have been bad, of course, but the pitching has been the biggest culprit as the Orioles entered Monday with the worst ERA (5.85) in the majors, a half-run worse than the 29th-place Mariners. They’re on pace to obliterate the 2016 Reds’ major league record for home runs allowed by 66, but it’s at least fair to note three other clubs are on pace to break Cincinnati’s mark in this homer-crazy 2019. The Orioles rank last in starter ERA (5.59) and next to last in bullpen ERA (6.16) with only Washington to thank for being slightly worse in relief.

The hope was the Orioles would find another pitcher or two in a mold somewhat similar to John Means, who’s been the most pleasant surprise of the season with his 2.67 ERA. You’d like to see more young hurlers take advantage of these generous opportunities to at least perform at a semi-respectable level, but that hasn’t happened beyond a fleeting week or two for any given name, a frustrating reality becoming more audible in Hyde’s post-game comments. He knew what he was getting into taking this job last December, but it can’t be easy managing this on a nightly basis.

Evident by the “Norfolk Shuttle” working overtime in recent weeks, this club just doesn’t have the pitching to even approach being competitive on too many nights. In games in which Andrew Cashner, Dylan Bundy, or Means have started, the Orioles are 17-25, which is still bad but far from historically poor. But they’re an unthinkable 5-31 when anyone else starts, which is 1899 Cleveland Spiders kind of terrible. Alex Cobb making only three starts before undergoing season-ending hip surgery doomed a rotation that was already far too thin.

What happens if Cashner, Bundy, or both are traded by next month’s deadline? What if Means’ shoulder issue becomes a bigger problem than anticipated? Other than prospect Keegan Akin, we’ve already seen most of what Triple-A Norfolk has to offer in the pitching department, and the answer isn’t pretty.

Nearly halfway through a season from which many fans have already tuned out, it’s time to ask if the 2019 Orioles could be the worst team we’ve seen in the major leagues since at least World War II. Yes, that includes the 1962 New York Mets, who went 40-120 in their inaugural season and are viewed as the Unholy Grail of modern baseball ineptitude.

Currently on pace to finish 45-117, the Orioles own a minus-181 run differential through 78 games. Only six teams over the last decade have finished an entire season with a run differential of minus-200 or worse. The last major league team to finish with a minus-300 run differential was the 2003 Detroit Tigers, who went 43-119 and scored 337 fewer runs than they allowed.

The Orioles’ current run differential translates to just short of minus-376 for an entire season, which is dramatically worse than last year’s club (minus-270) and the 1988 team (minus-239). The 1962 Mets finished at minus-331, so that tells you what kind of pace the Orioles are keeping as they sport just four June wins entering the final week of the month.

If you buy into the value of run differential to predict future wins and losses, you might want to take a trip or two to Camden Yards to witness history before the season’s over. The Orioles have played like a 128-loss team over their last 43 games, more than a quarter of the season. And the numbers say they haven’t been particularly unlucky either.

This could be the worst major league team of the modern era. All bets are off trying to argue otherwise at this point.

It’s worse than most of us even thought it would be.

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mancini

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Twelve Orioles thoughts entering late June

Posted on 18 June 2019 by Luke Jones

With the Orioles falling 30 games below .500 with 90 games remaining in the 2019 season, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:

1. It’s been 37 games since Baltimore achieved even the pedestrian feat of winning back-to-back contests, a stretch easily exceeding last year’s longest drought (28). I believed it unlikely the Orioles would be mathematically worse than the 2018 team, but they’ve played like a 127-loss club since May 7. Just brutal.

2. Brandon Hyde recently expressed frustration that young players weren’t taking advantage of opportunities as lackadaisical and sloppy play has become more prevalent. No manager would win with this club, but the regression from even an eyeball-test standpoint has to frustrate the coaching staff.

3. Remember that renaissance for Chris Davis after his record hitless streak? He has eight hits and 36 strikeouts in his last 72 plate appearances while his peripherals have crashed. He’s batting eighth and teetering as a full-time starter. Drastic action taken beyond that is likely up to the Angelos family.

4. The demotion of David Hess was overdue after a 7.36 ERA in 66 innings, but he’ll remain in the bullpen with Triple-A Norfolk, a move that makes sense if he’s going to continue to be a two-pitch hurler throwing his fastball and slider a combined 84 percent of the time.

5. Former Rule 5 pick Joey Rickard was designated for assignment Monday, a move that felt inevitable after he batted .203 in 135 plate appearances. The 28-year-old was the Opening Day right fielder and had another chance to establish himself as a legitimate major league player and didn’t do it.

6. Speaking of outfielders not taking advantage of opportunities, Keon Broxton has struck out 29 times in 64 plate appearances as an Oriole and had an inexcusable concentration lapse minutes into Saturday’s game. That position is sitting there for Cedric Mullins if he didn’t have an ugly .624 OPS at Norfolk.

7. On the bright side, Yusniel Diaz was named Eastern League Player of the Week with three home runs, two doubles, 12 RBIs, and four walks in six games. It’s been a rough start to 2019 for the centerpiece of the Manny Machado trade, so seeing him heat up is encouraging.

8. Understanding options are limited whenever you need someone for a spot start, the Orioles turning to Luis Ortiz and his 7.01 ERA last Friday was a reminder of both the shortage of even mediocre pitching at Norfolk and the number of 2018 deadline acquisitions not exactly thriving this season.

9. Dylan Bundy has posted a 3.09 ERA, struck out 8.5 batters per nine innings, and allowed six homers in his last 46 2/3 innings. He’s throwing fastballs a career-low 49 percent of the time and using changeups more frequently than he has since 2016. His secondary pitches have been key.

10. Hanser Alberto has a .432 batting average in 89 plate appearances against lefties, the best mark in the majors. He has only five walks in 214 plate appearances, but he puts the ball in play and has brought some positive energy to a club needing as much as possible.

11. Mike Elias said he’s “not looking to part” with Trey Mancini in the midst of a career year before acknowledging the Orioles are “open to anything.” There’s little urgency with the 27-year-old not becoming a free agent until after 2022, but Elias won’t be sentimental if a trade offer overwhelms.

12. A month ago, Mychal Givens looked like the most likely Oriole to be traded, but he’s blown four saves, allowed six homers, walked seven, and posted a 10.61 ERA in his last 9 1/3 innings dating back to May 20. His ERA is 5.28 only six weeks before the deadline.

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elias

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Orioles’ first 10 rounds reflect new regime, reputation of 2019 draft

Posted on 05 June 2019 by Luke Jones

The first 10 rounds of the 2019 amateur draft have said plenty about the new Orioles regime and reinforced the prevailing reputation of this year’s class.

The selection of Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman first overall was an easy choice needing no interpretation, but general manager Mike Elias taking up-the-middle position players with his next seven picks is quite a shift from the pitching-heavy drafts of recent years under former executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette and former director of amateur scouting Gary Rajsich. After drafting pitchers with 22 of their 32 total picks in the first 10 rounds of the previous three drafts, the Orioles didn’t take a pitcher until the eighth round Tuesday and took only two arms — both from college — with their first 11 picks.

Such a ratio would be more unusual if not for the overwhelming perception of this being one of the worst pitching drafts in recent memory as no pitcher was taken in the first six spots for the first time ever. Just 10 of the first 30 picks Monday were pitchers, a sharp departure from the last decade in which 14.5 pitchers were taken with the first 30 choices on average.

No one would describe this farm system as being anywhere close to deep in the pitching department — especially at the advanced levels — but the previous regime’s last few drafts deserve some credit for adding enough talented pitchers to at least make Elias feel better about not reaching for inferior arms over the first two days of the draft. DL Hall, Grayson Rodriguez, Keegan Akin, Zac Lowther, Blaine Knight, Brenan Hanifee, Michael Baumann, and Drew Rom all currently appear on Baltimore’s MLB.com top 30 prospects list after being drafted from 2016-18 and virtually all are having good 2019 campaigns. Perhaps College of Charleston right-hander Griffin McLarty and VCU righty Connor Gillispie will join that collection of promising talents in the not-too-distant future after being drafted Tuesday.

The lack of pitcher selections doesn’t tell the whole story about the Orioles’ first 11 picks, however.

It’s no coincidence that Elias drafted three shortstops and three center fielders as he’s clearly trying to upgrade the organization’s athleticism. Too often in the past, Baltimore would select corner players lacking positional flexibility, which can lead to questionable team defense and logjams like the one we’ve witnessed at first base for years. You draft an abundance of shortstops having the ability to play other infield spots or even the outfield if necessary. Similarly, a surplus of center-field prospects should provide plenty of plus-defense corner outfielders along the way.

In other words, if you’re going to draft a player already at a corner spot in high school or college, you better believe his bat has a good chance of being special.

Elias also followed the selection of Rutschman by drafting catchers in the sixth and 10th rounds after the Orioles had taken only one backstop in the previous five drafts combined. That’s probably a reflection of the organization’s current minor-league catchers as much as anything else, but you can never have too much depth at such a physically demanding position.

To be clear, none of these ideas are revolutionary concepts among well-run organizations that excel in adding and developing young talent, but it’s refreshing seeing the Orioles value up-the-middle position talent. Of course, we won’t know how well these picks will fare for at least a few years.

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